(11-04-2021 05:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:36 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Bruce,

Produce some evidence that the MAC has a GOR. They do not. Saying "I don't know, you don't know" is not an argument, it's a logical fallacy.

If not you cannot produce a MAC GOR then you are talking bull poop.

You aren't reading.

It is irrelevant if they have one now. The speculation, which is very well laid out is:

MAC won't expand without an increase from ESPN.
ESPN won't increase without an extension and a GOR.

So ALL the MAC would be signing onto the GOR, not just WKU and MTSU.


Not really that difficult a concept

Wonder why ESPN would require a GOR here but not for an increase for AAC or Sun Belt schools?

(11-04-2021 05:36 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Bruce,

Produce some evidence that the MAC has a GOR.

To the best of my knowledge, they do not have one, and I am 100% sure that I never suggested that they have one, and you have not made it clear why anybody should be persuaded that that is relevant to the rumor being discussed.

Now, I don't have any independent information whether the rumor is well informed or not, but given the history of GOR's, the most plausible scenario would seem to be:

(1) ESPN says they will be willing to offer a 10 year contract extension/upgrade if the MAC adds WKU/MTSU, but only if the MAC schools agree to a GOR over the term of the (extended) contract.

(2) The MAC considers the offered bump and the GOR requirement, and they are willing to take the deal.

(3) The MAC tells WKU/MTSU that they can get an invite, but it will depend on being willing to sign a GOR over the term of the offered contract extension.

In that scenario, of course the GOR is "nonexistent". Just like the ACC's GOR was "nonexistent" when it was first proposed in negotiations, and the Big12's GOR was "nonexistent" when it was first proposed in negotiations.

This whole discussion of a GOR is based on a message from a Marshall fan. Let’s all calm down.

(11-04-2021 06:09 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:36 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Bruce,

Produce some evidence that the MAC has a GOR. They do not. Saying "I don't know, you don't know" is not an argument, it's a logical fallacy.

If not you cannot produce a MAC GOR then you are talking bull poop.

You aren't reading.

It is irrelevant if they have one now. The speculation, which is very well laid out is:

MAC won't expand without an increase from ESPN.
ESPN won't increase without an extension and a GOR.

So ALL the MAC would be signing onto the GOR, not just WKU and MTSU.


Not really that difficult a concept

Wonder why ESPN would require a GOR here but not for an increase for AAC or Sun Belt schools?

AAC teams wouldn't have signed. Even now. They all want something better.

And they didn't get an increase for the expansion.

We don't know if they asked for a GOR for Sun Belt. FOIA in the next year will answer that.

No clue if ESPN has asked MAC for one - just providing the scenario where they MIGHT.

(11-04-2021 05:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  The speculation, which is very well laid out is:

MAC won't expand without an increase from ESPN.
ESPN won't increase without an extension and a GOR.

So ALL the MAC would be signing onto the GOR, not just WKU and MTSU.

The speculation seems very dubious.

The TV networks like it that the Big Ten, for example, has a GOR. They’re paying big money because the conference includes Ohio State, who is ratings gold no matter who they play. TV is not paying merely because it’s a conference that calls itself the Big Ten.

There’s no Ohio State in the MAC, and the money is not in the same ballpark as the Big Ten. The economics are completely different. So, we should all be skeptical that ESPN is insistent on a MAC GOR.

(11-04-2021 06:17 PM)galojah Wrote:  This whole discussion of a GOR is based on a message from a Marshall fan. Let’s all calm down.

A Marshall fan who was right about the Sun Belt taking Marshall and Southern Miss.
I'm not wrong very often, so it sticks out in my mind.

(11-04-2021 06:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  The speculation, which is very well laid out is:

MAC won't expand without an increase from ESPN.
ESPN won't increase without an extension and a GOR.

So ALL the MAC would be signing onto the GOR, not just WKU and MTSU.

The speculation seems very dubious.

The TV networks like it that the Big Ten, for example, has a GOR. They’re paying big money because the conference includes Ohio State, who is ratings gold no matter who they play. TV is not paying merely because it’s a conference that calls itself the Big Ten.

There’s no Ohio State in the MAC, and the money is not in the same ballpark as the Big Ten. The economics are completely different. So, we should all be skeptical that ESPN is insistent on a MAC GOR.

My pet theory:
1. ESPN DGAF about a MAC Grant Of Rights. They're interested in an extension-for-pay-bump deal, especially with a little bit of added inventory.
2. Who does care about Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee signing a MAC Grant of Rights? MAC schools who remember UMass, Temple, UCF, MArshall coming-and-going. And if WKU and MTSU are hesitant about a GOR that would prevent them from jumping to the Sun Belt or AAC, maybe that's what the MAC wants to know.

(I don't know that a GOR *prevents* movement. But it makes it more difficult)

(11-04-2021 06:17 PM)galojah Wrote:  This whole discussion of a GOR is based on a message from a Marshall fan. Let’s all calm down.

.

(11-04-2021 06:18 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  AAC teams wouldn't have signed. Even now. They all want something better.

And they didn't get an increase for the expansion.

We don't know if they asked for a GOR for Sun Belt. FOIA in the next year will answer that.

No clue if ESPN has asked MAC for one - just providing the scenario where they MIGHT.

And because they didn't sign one, ESPN had several clauses in the contract that said things like "If UC or Houston leave, the payout decreases by X dollars and if "Temple or UCONN leave if decreases by X dollars etc..," see below:
.
https://marshall.forums.rivals.com/threa...ave.27856/
. and
https://www.espn.com/college-sports/stor...ng-sources
.

The current AAC deal will eventually be lowered significantly. Eventually the MWC, AAC, MAC, and Sun Belt TV deals will be pretty equal overall. CUSA will still have a terrible deal.
.

(11-04-2021 06:45 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 06:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  The speculation, which is very well laid out is:

MAC won't expand without an increase from ESPN.
ESPN won't increase without an extension and a GOR.

So ALL the MAC would be signing onto the GOR, not just WKU and MTSU.

The speculation seems very dubious.

The TV networks like it that the Big Ten, for example, has a GOR. They’re paying big money because the conference includes Ohio State, who is ratings gold no matter who they play. TV is not paying merely because it’s a conference that calls itself the Big Ten.

There’s no Ohio State in the MAC, and the money is not in the same ballpark as the Big Ten. The economics are completely different. So, we should all be skeptical that ESPN is insistent on a MAC GOR.

My pet theory:
1. ESPN DGAF about a MAC Grant Of Rights. They're interested in an extension-for-pay-bump deal, especially with a little bit of added inventory.
2. Who does care about Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee signing a MAC Grant of Rights? MAC schools who remember UMass, Temple, UCF, MArshall coming-and-going. And if WKU and MTSU are hesitant about a GOR that would prevent them from jumping to the Sun Belt or AAC, maybe that's what the MAC wants to know.

(I don't know that a GOR *prevents* movement. But it makes it more difficult)

Both of the bolded statements are almost certainly true. Still, that doesn’t mean that a GOR is the mechanism the MAC demands. The MAC could just put a clause in its agreement with these two schools that if they leave in less than 10 years, the buyout is $50 million, and if they leave after that, the buyout is $1 million.

(11-04-2021 05:59 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The MAC holds the advantage over WKU and MTSU, and this long-time Blue Raider fan knows that. I want Middle Tennessee as a MAC member for many reasons, including the fact that the league is very stable and could be a quality long-term home. I would also be fine with MTSU as a member of the future Sun Belt, but I simply don't foresee that happening. And the AAC is clearly not interested in MTSU (and likely never will be). C-USA would not be a bad thing but there would be concerns. Of the four, the MAC seems the most logical "fit" for MTSU. I sure hope it happens.

If Memphis were to leave, the AAC might go for MTSU.

(11-04-2021 06:18 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 06:09 PM)All4One Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:36 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Bruce,

Produce some evidence that the MAC has a GOR. They do not. Saying "I don't know, you don't know" is not an argument, it's a logical fallacy.

If not you cannot produce a MAC GOR then you are talking bull poop.

You aren't reading.

It is irrelevant if they have one now. The speculation, which is very well laid out is:

MAC won't expand without an increase from ESPN.
ESPN won't increase without an extension and a GOR.

So ALL the MAC would be signing onto the GOR, not just WKU and MTSU.


Not really that difficult a concept

Wonder why ESPN would require a GOR here but not for an increase for AAC or Sun Belt schools?

AAC teams wouldn't have signed. Even now. They all want something better.

And they didn't get an increase for the expansion.

We don't know if they asked for a GOR for Sun Belt. FOIA in the next year will answer that.

No clue if ESPN has asked MAC for one - just providing the scenario where they MIGHT.

Good points. Thanks for that.

(11-04-2021 07:03 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 06:45 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 06:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  The speculation, which is very well laid out is:

MAC won't expand without an increase from ESPN.
ESPN won't increase without an extension and a GOR.

So ALL the MAC would be signing onto the GOR, not just WKU and MTSU.

The speculation seems very dubious.

The TV networks like it that the Big Ten, for example, has a GOR. They’re paying big money because the conference includes Ohio State, who is ratings gold no matter who they play. TV is not paying merely because it’s a conference that calls itself the Big Ten.

There’s no Ohio State in the MAC, and the money is not in the same ballpark as the Big Ten. The economics are completely different. So, we should all be skeptical that ESPN is insistent on a MAC GOR.

My pet theory:
1. ESPN DGAF about a MAC Grant Of Rights. They're interested in an extension-for-pay-bump deal, especially with a little bit of added inventory.
2. Who does care about Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee signing a MAC Grant of Rights? MAC schools who remember UMass, Temple, UCF, MArshall coming-and-going. And if WKU and MTSU are hesitant about a GOR that would prevent them from jumping to the Sun Belt or AAC, maybe that's what the MAC wants to know.

(I don't know that a GOR *prevents* movement. But it makes it more difficult)

Both of the bolded statements are almost certainly true. Still, that doesn’t mean that a GOR is the mechanism the MAC demands. The MAC could just put a clause in its agreement with these two schools that if they leave in less than 10 years, the buyout is $50 million, and if they leave after that, the buyout is $1 million.

I'm not sure that holds up in court. Courts apparently don't recognize exit penalties as legitimate clauses. (Maybe if you call it a "buyout" it's different, but I doubt it).

I don't know that a court would enforce a grant-of-rights on a school that wasn't still collecting a share of the conference distributions, but I think colleges consider a GOR more secure than an exit fee.

Now, the Big East did put a hefty exit fee on Uconn that declines over time. $30M exit fee if UConn leaves before 2026, $15M before 2029, $10M after that. On the other hand, UConn would be in a position to happily sign the check and be on their way to the ACC / Big Ten / SuperLeague.

(11-04-2021 07:04 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:59 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The MAC holds the advantage over WKU and MTSU, and this long-time Blue Raider fan knows that. I want Middle Tennessee as a MAC member for many reasons, including the fact that the league is very stable and could be a quality long-term home. I would also be fine with MTSU as a member of the future Sun Belt, but I simply don't foresee that happening. And the AAC is clearly not interested in MTSU (and likely never will be). C-USA would not be a bad thing but there would be concerns. Of the four, the MAC seems the most logical "fit" for MTSU. I sure hope it happens.

If Memphis were to leave, the AAC might go for MTSU.

But would the AAC be worth it to them? I couldn't imagine Wichita or Navy sticking around especially if SMU and South Florida goes as well. The league essentially becomes the Conference USA that MTSU entered in 2013 just before Tulsa, East Carolina, and Tulane left a year later. I don't know. Maybe just for geography.

(11-04-2021 06:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:46 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  The speculation, which is very well laid out is:

MAC won't expand without an increase from ESPN.
ESPN won't increase without an extension and a GOR.

So ALL the MAC would be signing onto the GOR, not just WKU and MTSU.

The speculation seems very dubious.

The TV networks like it that the Big Ten, for example, has a GOR. They’re paying big money because the conference includes Ohio State, who is ratings gold no matter who they play. TV is not paying merely because it’s a conference that calls itself the Big Ten.

There’s no Ohio State in the MAC, and the money is not in the same ballpark as the Big Ten. The economics are completely different. So, we should all be skeptical that ESPN is insistent on a MAC GOR.

I don't have the data or the models that ESPN's financial analysts use to value a conference contract, but I don't for a minute believe that ESPN would be willing to give the MAC even a pro rata bump for any generic increase in the size of the conference from 12 to 14.

So if their analysis leads to them being willing to give a bump for adding WKU/MTSU, it's because of their analysis of how those two added to the existing MAC schools works out.

Which means, the numbers are different by an order of magnitudes, but the economics are the same. If it's a bump for the 12 MAC schools plus those two, they shouldn't offer to pay as much over 15 years if they are facing the risk that six years later, conference realignment drops the MAC back down to the position that CUSA presently stands to be occupying.

Now, ESPN could well have said there is one offer without a GOR and another with, and the MAC concluded that the realignment makes sense based on the offer that goes with the GOR.

(11-04-2021 07:04 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:59 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The MAC holds the advantage over WKU and MTSU, and this long-time Blue Raider fan knows that. I want Middle Tennessee as a MAC member for many reasons, including the fact that the league is very stable and could be a quality long-term home. I would also be fine with MTSU as a member of the future Sun Belt, but I simply don't foresee that happening. And the AAC is clearly not interested in MTSU (and likely never will be). C-USA would not be a bad thing but there would be concerns. Of the four, the MAC seems the most logical "fit" for MTSU. I sure hope it happens.

If Memphis were to leave, the AAC might go for MTSU.

Nah, the AAC would go for FIU. They just cant help themselves. Markets, markets, markets. Potential, potential, potential. They don't know how to do anything else.

(11-04-2021 08:16 PM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 07:04 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(11-04-2021 05:59 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The MAC holds the advantage over WKU and MTSU, and this long-time Blue Raider fan knows that. I want Middle Tennessee as a MAC member for many reasons, including the fact that the league is very stable and could be a quality long-term home. I would also be fine with MTSU as a member of the future Sun Belt, but I simply don't foresee that happening. And the AAC is clearly not interested in MTSU (and likely never will be). C-USA would not be a bad thing but there would be concerns. Of the four, the MAC seems the most logical "fit" for MTSU. I sure hope it happens.

If Memphis were to leave, the AAC might go for MTSU.

Nah, the AAC would go for FIU. They just cant help themselves. Markets, markets, markets. Potential, potential, potential. They don't know how to do anything else.

MTSU is in the greater Nashville area. I would think they count under the markets mantra.

(11-04-2021 06:17 PM)galojah Wrote:  This whole discussion of a GOR is based on a message from a Marshall fan. Let’s all calm down.

Winner, winner chicken dinner.