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Here's an interesting article with a somewhat different take on the possibilities for AAC expansion:
Where Does the AAC Turn in the Next Conference Realignment?
Ian Curtis - January 18, 2021.............
EXCERPTS:
"It’s no secret that the American is striving to take up the Big East’s mantle as college football’s sixth power conference. A team from the AAC has been the Group of Five’s representative in the New Year’s Six in all but two years since the slot’s inception during the 2014 season (UCF’s two, along with one each for Memphis, Houston, and Cincinnati).
Potentially adding one or more of these teams could give the conference the “Power 6” status it has been so desperately craving. And let’s face it, football has been the driving force behind the American’s existence.
For the most part, these football-focused candidates are pretty obvious:
(1) Boise State: The Broncos are arguably the most successful non-power conference team in the past 15 years, and they’re the only non-AAC team not named Western Michigan to make a New Year’s Six bowl since the playoff system was created. They’ve been the cream of the non-power crop ever since they pulled off an individual historical-monument-named play, and the football benefits of adding them to the American are apparent. Boise has already discussed joining the AAC in football, but they would need to find a home for their other sports. If the Broncos can find a place for those teams, then I like the chances of this move happening in the next few years.
(2) BYU: ...they’ve got a football pedigree...and a passionate fanbase, something that the AAC would love to see in any new members...BYU has proven they can survive independently...This one could go either way, and it might depend on what happens between now and when the dominoes start to fall.
(3) App State: Ever since a certain sunny Saturday in September 2007, App State has named itself on the national scene as a football powerhouse...has continued their run of gridiron glory , winning six straight bowl games and several Sun Belt titles...In the past five seasons,
the Mountaineers have defeated North Carolina and South Carolina and have forced a couple of top ten teams (2018 Penn State and 2016 Tennessee) into overtime East Carolina provides an immediate potential for a conference rivalry and App State does have a strong fanbase. ...if the AAC is looking for football-only members, it’s hard to find a more consistently successful program than the Mountaineers.
(4) Army: The question here is less if the AAC wants the Army as much as it is if Army wants the AAC. As it stands, the Black Knights have bowl tie-ins that rival the American’s, and I don’t see them taking the AAC up on their offer.
(5) San Diego State: The Aztecs add a decent football program and an excellent basketball program. But most importantly, they bring sunny San Diego, California. It’s nearly a million-and-a-half people, and just as many amenities for a college student to enjoy...arguably the best blend of location and total athletic success. A tempting target if you can get over the travel hurdle.
There are a few other schools out of the Mountain West that the AAC could attempt to add, such as (San Jose St.), UNLV, or Fresno State. I don’t see those non-Boise western additions happening (as full members, at least). But the possibility of stretching the American’s urban profile to San Diego, San Jose, or elsewhere in the warm West Coast sun is tantalizing enough to consider.
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The AAC’s Urban Option
The conference is in a unique position within Division I athletics: A majority of its member institutions are located in major American cities, something no other conference can boast. So why not lean fully into that niche, and scoop up some more urban universities?
The obvious reward is television markets...market size might be enough to tip the scale in favor of urban candidates. But additional bonuses involve recruiting:
Say you’re a three-star recruit out of Small Town, USA. Your college choices are a middling Power Five team located in your standard, small-ish college town or an AAC school situated in the big city with all the things Small Town, USA never had.
So who might the conference target if they decide to take this urban approach?
San Jose State: The Trojans are basically San Diego State with less long-term athletic prestige in a slightly smaller city. They’re not as attractive of an addition as a team like the Aztecs, but SJSU would be a great compliment to any other western schools - - if they can prove that this year’s sudden football success was not a fluke.
Georgia State: Atlanta fits the profile like a glove. While the Panthers have not set the world of college football on fire, they have consistently made bowl game appearances in the past several years.
UAB: the 2020 C-USA champions have kept the flame burning brightly even after their stint in the spotlight began to fade. Since their football program returned from the grave in 2017, UAB has earned four bowl invites (including this year’s canceled Gasparilla Bowl) and won two C-USA titles. In terms of urban profile, Birmingham is no San Diego, but it isn’t Small Town, USA either. Blazer basketball may not be a regular tournament fixture, but they’re an above-average squad...they’d be less of a liability on that front than certain other potential candidates. Much like several other schools, adding UAB is worth taking a glance at but is by no means signed and sealed.
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I’m predicting additions of at least one of either App State, Georgia State, or UAB.
[i]I’d like to call my shot and say that the AAC adds one (at minimum) new football-only member in the next cycle. [/i]
...the American needs to hold onto its football prestige (especially if certain current members get poached), if not better it."
https://www.overtimeheroics.net/2021/01/...alignment/
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Article: "Where Does the AAC Turn in the Next Conference Realignment?"
