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*** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
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slhNavy91 Online
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Post: #41
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 11:10 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  "Boise should not get an unequal share in the AAC like they enjoy in the MWC."

IF Boise were ever to receive an invite to the AAC I am convinced it would be an equal share... and would be well received in Boise. You have to review WHY does Boise get an unequal share in the MWC.

Boise received and accepted an invite to the Big East. Not only was there a path
to the big bowls but there was considerably more money connected to the conference affiliation. Before they played a single game though the conference was raided. It appeared to be in big trouble. It looked like the value would decrease significantly and the bowl opportunities looked to be disappearing.

The MWC saw an opportunity to retain BSU which they felt made the conference stronger. The MWC offered up a proposal. they could not offer more money to match the money in the Big East. Instead of paying BSU more than the other conference members they would allow BSU to negotiate their home games with the network separately. In consultation with ESPN BSU was able to come up with a plan to mitigate the financial loss of returning to the MWC. At the time everyone thought this was a win-win scenario for the MWC and BSU. Now everyone forgets why this was in place and sees it as a "special deal" and should be disallowed.

The schools in the AAC have a very similar payout to what BSU currently has with their "special deal". Hind sight is considerably clearer than predicting the future. If BSU had not taken the MWC offer they would be an FB only member of the AAC right now.

That's not exactly how it happened.
Boise State WAS certainly smart enough to see the writing on the wall for the Big East.
Boise then came to the Big East demanding special treatment and inequitable revenue distribution or they would walk. The Big East told them "no" but the mwc said yes to the same demand.
That was widely reported at the time - a 2013 quote from Navy AD Chet Gladchuk (who seemed to be carrying some water for Commissioner Aresco): “What Boise State wanted was outrageous and unprecedented. It was not palatable to any of the other Big East institutions,” Gladchuk said.

No one has forgotten how and why it happened - and now that Boise is not bringing in NY6 bowls (and $$$) the other 11 mwc conference members all regret it. You can find articles in 11 different mwc hometown newspapers from 2013 to today that are against the special deal. Hence the lawsuits/countersuits from January 2020...which prompted the "We need out!" email discussions in January 2020 between Harsin and the BSU AD, which were FOIA'd and reported in December 2020 (as well as the September 2020 "We need out" email discussions which were more directly predicated on the mwc initially cancelling the 2020 football season.).
05-31-2021 11:33 AM
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4xGrad Offline
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Post: #42
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 05:41 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(05-29-2021 08:08 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  I've never understood the fascination some on here have with Boyzee.

They're not close to anyone. They had their time in the sun but they're quickly fading away.

They don't bring much to the table. We don't need them by any stretch. Yet we're up to our arse in nerds around here wanting to add them.

I just don't get it.


Neither do I. Boise has gone downhill for the last few seasons, they have a limited future and if it were not for the fact that we do in fact need a 12th team no one would give a damn about them. On the other hand BYU is a worthy target. Unfortunately they value independence and will not join any conference but a P5 conference.

so the last 4 years of records:

2017 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 11-3 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 17–14
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon 38–28 end of year ranking 22 22

2018 Mountain West T–1st (Mountain) 10-3 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 16–19 OT
First Responder Bowl vs. Boston College Canceled[a] end of year ranking 23-24

2019 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 12 2 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Hawaii 31–10
Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington 7–38 end of year ranking 23-22

2020 Mountain West T–1st[b] 5-2 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. San Jose State 20–34
Opted out of playing in a bowl game - end of year ranking NR

You are right... they have really gone down hill the last couple of years (written in sarcasm font).

As far as the future... Limited???... Not sure what you base that on. Do you have predictive information that you are not sharing?
05-31-2021 11:46 AM
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4xGrad Offline
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Post: #43
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 11:33 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 11:10 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  "Boise should not get an unequal share in the AAC like they enjoy in the MWC."

IF Boise were ever to receive an invite to the AAC I am convinced it would be an equal share... and would be well received in Boise. You have to review WHY does Boise get an unequal share in the MWC.

Boise received and accepted an invite to the Big East. Not only was there a path
to the big bowls but there was considerably more money connected to the conference affiliation. Before they played a single game though the conference was raided. It appeared to be in big trouble. It looked like the value would decrease significantly and the bowl opportunities looked to be disappearing.

The MWC saw an opportunity to retain BSU which they felt made the conference stronger. The MWC offered up a proposal. they could not offer more money to match the money in the Big East. Instead of paying BSU more than the other conference members they would allow BSU to negotiate their home games with the network separately. In consultation with ESPN BSU was able to come up with a plan to mitigate the financial loss of returning to the MWC. At the time everyone thought this was a win-win scenario for the MWC and BSU. Now everyone forgets why this was in place and sees it as a "special deal" and should be disallowed.

The schools in the AAC have a very similar payout to what BSU currently has with their "special deal". Hind sight is considerably clearer than predicting the future. If BSU had not taken the MWC offer they would be an FB only member of the AAC right now.

That's not exactly how it happened.
Boise State WAS certainly smart enough to see the writing on the wall for the Big East.
Boise then came to the Big East demanding special treatment and inequitable revenue distribution or they would walk. The Big East told them "no" but the mwc said yes to the same demand.
That was widely reported at the time - a 2013 quote from Navy AD Chet Gladchuk (who seemed to be carrying some water for Commissioner Aresco): “What Boise State wanted was outrageous and unprecedented. It was not palatable to any of the other Big East institutions,” Gladchuk said.

No one has forgotten how and why it happened - and now that Boise is not bringing in NY6 bowls (and $$$) the other 11 mwc conference members all regret it. You can find articles in 11 different mwc hometown newspapers from 2013 to today that are against the special deal. Hence the lawsuits/countersuits from January 2020...which prompted the "We need out!" email discussions in January 2020 between Harsin and the BSU AD, which were FOIA'd and reported in December 2020 (as well as the September 2020 "We need out" email discussions which were more directly predicated on the mwc initially cancelling the 2020 football season.).

I guess as faculty we heard the same story with a bit of a different perspective.
I was unaware that any proposal was made to the Big East but it is not surprising. I have to admit there was an air of panic at the time. I do remember only a very few MWC voices against the deal early on. The single lawsuit that was brought by BSU in January 2020 was only after BSU was told in person, in Boise, by the conference commissioner that they would retain the right to negotiate their own home game rights and then the conference went out and packaged them without BSU's involvement. The negotiated settlement was the difference in rights from the previous contracts.

Every single administration that agreed to that contract has changed personnel. What if BSU had done so poorly that separate home rights were valued less than the MWC average? would schools be complaining then?
05-31-2021 12:10 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #44
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 11:46 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 05:41 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(05-29-2021 08:08 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  I've never understood the fascination some on here have with Boyzee.

They're not close to anyone. They had their time in the sun but they're quickly fading away.

They don't bring much to the table. We don't need them by any stretch. Yet we're up to our arse in nerds around here wanting to add them.

I just don't get it.


Neither do I. Boise has gone downhill for the last few seasons, they have a limited future and if it were not for the fact that we do in fact need a 12th team no one would give a damn about them. On the other hand BYU is a worthy target. Unfortunately they value independence and will not join any conference but a P5 conference.

so the last 4 years of records:

2017 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 11-3 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 17–14
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon 38–28 end of year ranking 22 22

2018 Mountain West T–1st (Mountain) 10-3 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 16–19 OT
First Responder Bowl vs. Boston College Canceled[a] end of year ranking 23-24

2019 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 12 2 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Hawaii 31–10
Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington 7–38 end of year ranking 23-22

2020 Mountain West T–1st[b] 5-2 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. San Jose State 20–34
Opted out of playing in a bowl game - end of year ranking NR

You are right... they have really gone down hill the last couple of years (written in sarcasm font).

As far as the future... Limited???... Not sure what you base that on. Do you have predictive information that you are not sharing?

That's nice. Now let's do the actual comparison part and not just the one side stats.

Please provide the four years previous to 2013 (2008-2012) this will allow us to tell if Boise is indeed maintaining or going down hill from its previous success when it was invited to join the Big East.

Since the return on Boise was not considered significant enough then any decline would indicate they have little chance of improving enough to be valuable to the AAC and therefore worth the headache their behavior towards fellow conference mates creates. Of course the academic profiles are different so it's unlikely they survive a president's vote. Just for ***** and giggles as the marines say, let's see.
05-31-2021 02:59 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #45
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 02:59 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 11:46 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 05:41 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(05-29-2021 08:08 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  I've never understood the fascination some on here have with Boyzee.

They're not close to anyone. They had their time in the sun but they're quickly fading away.

They don't bring much to the table. We don't need them by any stretch. Yet we're up to our arse in nerds around here wanting to add them.

I just don't get it.


Neither do I. Boise has gone downhill for the last few seasons, they have a limited future and if it were not for the fact that we do in fact need a 12th team no one would give a damn about them. On the other hand BYU is a worthy target. Unfortunately they value independence and will not join any conference but a P5 conference.

so the last 4 years of records:

2017 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 11-3 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 17–14
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon 38–28 end of year ranking 22 22

2018 Mountain West T–1st (Mountain) 10-3 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 16–19 OT
First Responder Bowl vs. Boston College Canceled[a] end of year ranking 23-24

2019 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 12 2 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Hawaii 31–10
Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington 7–38 end of year ranking 23-22

2020 Mountain West T–1st[b] 5-2 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. San Jose State 20–34
Opted out of playing in a bowl game - end of year ranking NR

You are right... they have really gone down hill the last couple of years (written in sarcasm font).

As far as the future... Limited???... Not sure what you base that on. Do you have predictive information that you are not sharing?

That's nice. Now let's do the actual comparison part and not just the one side stats.

Please provide the four years previous to 2013 (2008-2012) this will allow us to tell if Boise is indeed maintaining or going down hill from its previous success when it was invited to join the Big East.

Since the return on Boise was not considered significant enough then any decline would indicate they have little chance of improving enough to be valuable to the AAC and therefore worth the headache their behavior towards fellow conference mates creates. Of course the academic profiles are different so it's unlikely they survive a president's vote. Just for ***** and giggles as the marines say, let's see.

If your requirement for a qualified addition is that a program must be undefeated or just have one loss forever---then yes, Boise is "going down hill". Please point to the alternative program that has maintained a zero or one loss record for a decade or more. I'll wait while you compile the list. So far, nobody has supplied me with anyone thats anywhere near that performance level---instead they are throwing out options like UAB, Marshall, App St, and Liberty---none of which have a record anything approaching your apparent performance requirement. The only thing these kinds of lower end G5 options offer the conference is lower than average brand value, poor basketball/olympic programs---but you get all those worthless games in a closer package (well---big whoop). Is CBS or ABC looking to televise a couple of UAB home games on their flagship over the air networks? Nope? Hmmm---I wonder why that is? Its worth noting that not a single current member of the AAC would qualify under the standard you seem to be requiring Boise to clear.

If Boise is willing to come to the AAC as a "football only" member---then that is by far the best available option that is willing to say "yes" to an AAC invite. Im not as hip on an "all sports" invite for Boise. Yes--it can probably be done---but I think I'd rather just stand pat at 11 for now if it requires an "all sports" invite to make Boise an AAC member. Thus, Im just fine with the course Aresco seems to be charting thus far.
(This post was last modified: 05-31-2021 03:18 PM by Attackcoog.)
05-31-2021 03:05 PM
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usffan Offline
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Post: #46
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 02:59 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 11:46 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 05:41 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(05-29-2021 08:08 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  I've never understood the fascination some on here have with Boyzee.

They're not close to anyone. They had their time in the sun but they're quickly fading away.

They don't bring much to the table. We don't need them by any stretch. Yet we're up to our arse in nerds around here wanting to add them.

I just don't get it.


Neither do I. Boise has gone downhill for the last few seasons, they have a limited future and if it were not for the fact that we do in fact need a 12th team no one would give a damn about them. On the other hand BYU is a worthy target. Unfortunately they value independence and will not join any conference but a P5 conference.

so the last 4 years of records:

2017 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 11-3 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 17–14
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon 38–28 end of year ranking 22 22

2018 Mountain West T–1st (Mountain) 10-3 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 16–19 OT
First Responder Bowl vs. Boston College Canceled[a] end of year ranking 23-24

2019 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 12 2 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Hawaii 31–10
Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington 7–38 end of year ranking 23-22

2020 Mountain West T–1st[b] 5-2 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. San Jose State 20–34
Opted out of playing in a bowl game - end of year ranking NR

You are right... they have really gone down hill the last couple of years (written in sarcasm font).

As far as the future... Limited???... Not sure what you base that on. Do you have predictive information that you are not sharing?

That's nice. Now let's do the actual comparison part and not just the one side stats.

Please provide the four years previous to 2013 (2008-2012) this will allow us to tell if Boise is indeed maintaining or going down hill from its previous success when it was invited to join the Big East.

Since the return on Boise was not considered significant enough then any decline would indicate they have little chance of improving enough to be valuable to the AAC and therefore worth the headache their behavior towards fellow conference mates creates. Of course the academic profiles are different so it's unlikely they survive a president's vote. Just for ***** and giggles as the marines say, let's see.

I think this is what you're looking for...

Final Massey Composite Ratings by year (from https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/) for Boise since pulling out of the Big East invitation at the end of the 2012 season:

2020 - 31
2019 - 23
2018 - 23
2017 - 25
2016 - 32
2015 - 47
2014 - 17
2013 - 53

With all due respect, that is better than any AAC school over that entire period, and it's not particularly close.

USFFan

(edited because the 2018 link wasn't correct)
(This post was last modified: 05-31-2021 04:08 PM by usffan.)
05-31-2021 03:43 PM
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goodknightfl Offline
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RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
I hear it will be official a week from Tuesday. The Boise train will be pulling on in to the .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
05-31-2021 03:49 PM
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RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
I hate to be a downer here but, Boise St. isn't comming and niether is BYU or any third party.

Unless the powers that be (ESPN), desides to make the AAC a defacto Power6 Conferense. That's all that needs to be said. It aint happening.

(THAT IS ALL)
(This post was last modified: 05-31-2021 04:07 PM by BCSvsBS.)
05-31-2021 04:05 PM
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vick mike Offline
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RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
I leave for two days and the “Boise Thread is Dead” thread is a g0dd&mm Boise thread! Have you no shame?!?
05-31-2021 04:15 PM
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usffan Offline
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RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
With apologies to vick mike, I just wasted a good 30 minutes looking at the composite Massey rankings for a bunch of teams and, by God, I'm going to post them here.

FWIW, here are the mean and median end of year composite Massey rankings from 2013-2020 for each football team that spent more than 1 year in the AAC (w/ high and low rankings included)

Central Florida = Mean 43.12, Median 26, High 7, Low 127
Memphis = Mean 46.38, Median 43.5, High 13, Low 102
Cincinnati = Mean 53.5, Median 52.5, High 5, Low 101
Navy = Mean 55.62, Median 48.5, High 20, Low 103
Houston = Mean 56.38, Median 57, High 12, Low 86
Temple = Mean 69.62, Median 59.5, High 38, Low 116
South Florida = Mean 78.12, Median 94.5, High 23, Low 117
SMU = Mean 81.75, Median 88, High 30, Low 124
Tulane = Mean 83.62, Median 80, High 50, Low 115
Tulsa = Mean 83.62, Median 96.5, High 24, Low 117
ECU = Mean 91, Median 100, High 46, Low 117
UConn = Mean 113.29, Median 119, High 84, Low 129

Here are some of the schools that come up in a certain hillbilly's constant attempts to foist expansion on us:

Boise State = Mean 31.38, Median 28, High 17, Low 53
App. State* = Mean 43, Median 35, High 19, Low 88
BYU = Mean 48.88, Median 46, High 9, Low 103
SDSU = Mean 55.62, Median 51.5, High 37, Low 81
Marshall = Mean 61.38, Median 58.5, High 21, Low 123
Air Force = Mean 66.88, Median 62.5, High 24, Low 114
Liberty# = Mean 77, Median 89, High 41, Low 101
UAB^ = Mean 78.33, Median 82, High 43, Low 115
Army = Mean 79.25, Median 88, High 28, Low 118
Buffalo = Mean 81.12, Median 81, High 35, Low 127
Colorado State = Mean 83.5, Median 84, High 37, Low 113
Coastal Carolina& = Mean 86.25, Median 106, High 13, Low 120
Georgia State = Mean 106, Median 107, High 75, Low 128

* App. State was not FBS in 2013, so data is only for last 7 years
# Liberty was not FBS from 2013 through 2017, so data is only for last 3 years
^ UAB was on football hiatus in 2015 and 2016, so there is only 6 years of data
& Coastal Carolina was not FBS from 2013 through 2016, so data is only for last 4 years

As you look at that data, Boise is CLEARLY the best football program, and any attempt to downplay their football program isn't being honest - they average nearly 12 positions higher than every team in the AAC over the life of the conference. In fact, their lowest ranking in the last 7 seasons is higher than the 3rd highest average among all AAC teams over that period.

A better case than I anticipated can be made for Appalachian State, though it's not quite an apples to apples comparison for them, Liberty or Coastal given that they just moved up.

If the "14 team" thing happens, it also seems really clear that Boise, BYU and SDSU are the best football options, and again it's not close. SDSU finishes an average of 11+ spots higher than Air Force, and Colorado State would be pretty much at the bottom of the AAC.

As others have said, none of the schools in the eastern or central time zones would move the needle at all, and if this doesn't put things into perspective for Georgia State and those who have advocated for them, I daresay nothing will.

USFFan
05-31-2021 05:04 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #51
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 05:04 PM)usffan Wrote:  With apologies to vick mike, I just wasted a good 30 minutes looking at the composite Massey rankings for a bunch of teams and, by God, I'm going to post them here.

FWIW, here are the mean and median end of year composite Massey rankings from 2013-2020 for each football team that spent more than 1 year in the AAC (w/ high and low rankings included)

Central Florida = Mean 43.12, Median 26, High 7, Low 127
Memphis = Mean 46.38, Median 43.5, High 13, Low 102
Cincinnati = Mean 53.5, Median 52.5, High 5, Low 101
Navy = Mean 55.62, Median 48.5, High 20, Low 103
Houston = Mean 56.38, Median 57, High 12, Low 86
Temple = Mean 69.62, Median 59.5, High 38, Low 116
South Florida = Mean 78.12, Median 94.5, High 23, Low 117
SMU = Mean 81.75, Median 88, High 30, Low 124
Tulane = Mean 83.62, Median 80, High 50, Low 115
Tulsa = Mean 83.62, Median 96.5, High 24, Low 117
ECU = Mean 91, Median 100, High 46, Low 117
UConn = Mean 113.29, Median 119, High 84, Low 129

Here are some of the schools that come up in a certain hillbilly's constant attempts to foist expansion on us:

Boise State = Mean 31.38, Median 28, High 17, Low 53
App. State* = Mean 43, Median 35, High 19, Low 88
BYU = Mean 48.88, Median 46, High 9, Low 103
SDSU = Mean 55.62, Median 51.5, High 37, Low 81
Marshall = Mean 61.38, Median 58.5, High 21, Low 123
Air Force = Mean 66.88, Median 62.5, High 24, Low 114
Liberty# = Mean 77, Median 89, High 41, Low 101
UAB^ = Mean 78.33, Median 82, High 43, Low 115
Army = Mean 79.25, Median 88, High 28, Low 118
Buffalo = Mean 81.12, Median 81, High 35, Low 127
Colorado State = Mean 83.5, Median 84, High 37, Low 113
Coastal Carolina& = Mean 86.25, Median 106, High 13, Low 120
Georgia State = Mean 106, Median 107, High 75, Low 128

* App. State was not FBS in 2013, so data is only for last 7 years
# Liberty was not FBS from 2013 through 2017, so data is only for last 3 years
^ UAB was on football hiatus in 2015 and 2016, so there is only 6 years of data
& Coastal Carolina was not FBS from 2013 through 2016, so data is only for last 4 years

As you look at that data, Boise is CLEARLY the best football program, and any attempt to downplay their football program isn't being honest - they average nearly 12 positions higher than every team in the AAC over the life of the conference. In fact, their lowest ranking in the last 7 seasons is higher than the 3rd highest average among all AAC teams over that period.

A better case than I anticipated can be made for Appalachian State, though it's not quite an apples to apples comparison for them, Liberty or Coastal given that they just moved up.

If the "14 team" thing happens, it also seems really clear that Boise, BYU and SDSU are the best football options, and again it's not close. SDSU finishes an average of 11+ spots higher than Air Force, and Colorado State would be pretty much at the bottom of the AAC.

As others have said, none of the schools in the eastern or central time zones would move the needle at all, and if this doesn't put things into perspective for Georgia State and those who have advocated for them, I daresay nothing will.

USFFan

More good data that backs up what we have been saying---the conference keeps looking west because thats where the quality potential additions with decent brand/performance value lie.
(This post was last modified: 05-31-2021 05:25 PM by Attackcoog.)
05-31-2021 05:24 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #52
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 03:43 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 02:59 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 11:46 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 05:41 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(05-29-2021 08:08 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  I've never understood the fascination some on here have with Boyzee.

They're not close to anyone. They had their time in the sun but they're quickly fading away.

They don't bring much to the table. We don't need them by any stretch. Yet we're up to our arse in nerds around here wanting to add them.

I just don't get it.


Neither do I. Boise has gone downhill for the last few seasons, they have a limited future and if it were not for the fact that we do in fact need a 12th team no one would give a damn about them. On the other hand BYU is a worthy target. Unfortunately they value independence and will not join any conference but a P5 conference.

so the last 4 years of records:

2017 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 11-3 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 17–14
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon 38–28 end of year ranking 22 22

2018 Mountain West T–1st (Mountain) 10-3 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 16–19 OT
First Responder Bowl vs. Boston College Canceled[a] end of year ranking 23-24

2019 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 12 2 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Hawaii 31–10
Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington 7–38 end of year ranking 23-22

2020 Mountain West T–1st[b] 5-2 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. San Jose State 20–34
Opted out of playing in a bowl game - end of year ranking NR

You are right... they have really gone down hill the last couple of years (written in sarcasm font).

As far as the future... Limited???... Not sure what you base that on. Do you have predictive information that you are not sharing?

That's nice. Now let's do the actual comparison part and not just the one side stats.

Please provide the four years previous to 2013 (2008-2012) this will allow us to tell if Boise is indeed maintaining or going down hill from its previous success when it was invited to join the Big East.

Since the return on Boise was not considered significant enough then any decline would indicate they have little chance of improving enough to be valuable to the AAC and therefore worth the headache their behavior towards fellow conference mates creates. Of course the academic profiles are different so it's unlikely they survive a president's vote. Just for ***** and giggles as the marines say, let's see.

I think this is what you're looking for...

Final Massey Composite Ratings by year (from https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/) for Boise since pulling out of the Big East invitation at the end of the 2012 season:

2020 - 31
2019 - 23
2018 - 23
2017 - 25
2016 - 32
2015 - 47
2014 - 17
2013 - 53

With all due respect, that is better than any AAC school over that entire period, and it's not particularly close.

USFFan

(edited because the 2018 link wasn't correct)

No it isn't. I asked for the direct comparison to his presented data, not the particular data that you wanted to show. I want a comparison of the Boise before the big east invite compared to the time before now. I even told you why. Is Boise going down hill? Yes by a huge margin, which is why 4x didn't post the comparison part and why you didn't either.

Boise's record, conference finish, conference record, ranking AP/Coaches and bowl for the 5 years before 2013

2008 Boise 12-1 Conference Champions 8-0 ranking 11/13 Poinsettia
2009 Boise 14-0 Conference Champions 8-0 ranking 4/4 Fiesta
2010 Boise 12-1 Conference Champions 7-1 ranking 9/7 Vegas
2011 Boise 12-1 2nd behind TCU ranking 7-1 8/6 Vegas
2012 Boise 11-2 Conference Champions 7-1 ranking 18/14 Vegas

Comparing that to Boise 5 years previous shows less conference championships versus basically the same teams, more conference losses, no NY6 bowls, no 1 loss or zero loss seasons, no rankings in the top 10 and not being ranked, it's pretty clear Boise has gone down hill and quite a ways downhill compared to where they were. Considering it was a stretch then (the sweetheart ask was the nail in a closed coffin) it would seem that Boise has even less of a chance now than it did then.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk on how to tell if a program is going uphill or downhill by using previous time period to compare to current time period for said program.
05-31-2021 08:52 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #53
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 08:52 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 03:43 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 02:59 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 11:46 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 05:41 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  Neither do I. Boise has gone downhill for the last few seasons, they have a limited future and if it were not for the fact that we do in fact need a 12th team no one would give a damn about them. On the other hand BYU is a worthy target. Unfortunately they value independence and will not join any conference but a P5 conference.

so the last 4 years of records:

2017 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 11-3 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 17–14
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon 38–28 end of year ranking 22 22

2018 Mountain West T–1st (Mountain) 10-3 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 16–19 OT
First Responder Bowl vs. Boston College Canceled[a] end of year ranking 23-24

2019 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 12 2 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Hawaii 31–10
Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington 7–38 end of year ranking 23-22

2020 Mountain West T–1st[b] 5-2 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. San Jose State 20–34
Opted out of playing in a bowl game - end of year ranking NR

You are right... they have really gone down hill the last couple of years (written in sarcasm font).

As far as the future... Limited???... Not sure what you base that on. Do you have predictive information that you are not sharing?

That's nice. Now let's do the actual comparison part and not just the one side stats.

Please provide the four years previous to 2013 (2008-2012) this will allow us to tell if Boise is indeed maintaining or going down hill from its previous success when it was invited to join the Big East.

Since the return on Boise was not considered significant enough then any decline would indicate they have little chance of improving enough to be valuable to the AAC and therefore worth the headache their behavior towards fellow conference mates creates. Of course the academic profiles are different so it's unlikely they survive a president's vote. Just for ***** and giggles as the marines say, let's see.

I think this is what you're looking for...

Final Massey Composite Ratings by year (from https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/) for Boise since pulling out of the Big East invitation at the end of the 2012 season:

2020 - 31
2019 - 23
2018 - 23
2017 - 25
2016 - 32
2015 - 47
2014 - 17
2013 - 53

With all due respect, that is better than any AAC school over that entire period, and it's not particularly close.

USFFan

(edited because the 2018 link wasn't correct)

No it isn't. I asked for the direct comparison to his presented data, not the particular data that you wanted to show. I want a comparison of the Boise before the big east invite compared to the time before now. I even told you why. Is Boise going down hill? Yes by a huge margin, which is why 4x didn't post the comparison part and why you didn't either.

Boise's record, conference finish, conference record, ranking AP/Coaches and bowl for the 5 years before 2013

2008 Boise 12-1 Conference Champions 8-0 ranking 11/13 Poinsettia
2009 Boise 14-0 Conference Champions 8-0 ranking 4/4 Fiesta
2010 Boise 12-1 Conference Champions 7-1 ranking 9/7 Vegas
2011 Boise 12-1 2nd behind TCU ranking 7-1 8/6 Vegas
2012 Boise 11-2 Conference Champions 7-1 ranking 18/14 Vegas

Comparing that to Boise 5 years previous shows less conference championships versus basically the same teams, more conference losses, no NY6 bowls, no 1 loss or zero loss seasons, no rankings in the top 10 and not being ranked, it's pretty clear Boise has gone down hill and quite a ways downhill compared to where they were. Considering it was a stretch then (the sweetheart ask was the nail in a closed coffin) it would seem that Boise has even less of a chance now than it did then.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk on how to tell if a program is going uphill or downhill by using previous time period to compare to current time period for said program.


Excellent. No go go watch the TED talk on how teams performance tends to go up and down. Pay special attention when it gets to the part when it discusses how impressive a program is when its "down years" still consist of either winning the league championship or playing in the CCG. If we are replacing UConn football with a program who's down years have consisted of winning its league or playing in the CCG---that's a winning trade.
(This post was last modified: 05-31-2021 09:28 PM by Attackcoog.)
05-31-2021 09:27 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #54
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
Boise seems to be flourishing where they are. Let sleeping dogs lie.
05-31-2021 10:16 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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Post: #55
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 09:27 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 08:52 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 03:43 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 02:59 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 11:46 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  so the last 4 years of records:

2017 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 11-3 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 17–14
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon 38–28 end of year ranking 22 22

2018 Mountain West T–1st (Mountain) 10-3 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 16–19 OT
First Responder Bowl vs. Boston College Canceled[a] end of year ranking 23-24

2019 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 12 2 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Hawaii 31–10
Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington 7–38 end of year ranking 23-22

2020 Mountain West T–1st[b] 5-2 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. San Jose State 20–34
Opted out of playing in a bowl game - end of year ranking NR

You are right... they have really gone down hill the last couple of years (written in sarcasm font).

As far as the future... Limited???... Not sure what you base that on. Do you have predictive information that you are not sharing?

That's nice. Now let's do the actual comparison part and not just the one side stats.

Please provide the four years previous to 2013 (2008-2012) this will allow us to tell if Boise is indeed maintaining or going down hill from its previous success when it was invited to join the Big East.

Since the return on Boise was not considered significant enough then any decline would indicate they have little chance of improving enough to be valuable to the AAC and therefore worth the headache their behavior towards fellow conference mates creates. Of course the academic profiles are different so it's unlikely they survive a president's vote. Just for ***** and giggles as the marines say, let's see.

I think this is what you're looking for...

Final Massey Composite Ratings by year (from https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/) for Boise since pulling out of the Big East invitation at the end of the 2012 season:

2020 - 31
2019 - 23
2018 - 23
2017 - 25
2016 - 32
2015 - 47
2014 - 17
2013 - 53

With all due respect, that is better than any AAC school over that entire period, and it's not particularly close.

USFFan

(edited because the 2018 link wasn't correct)

No it isn't. I asked for the direct comparison to his presented data, not the particular data that you wanted to show. I want a comparison of the Boise before the big east invite compared to the time before now. I even told you why. Is Boise going down hill? Yes by a huge margin, which is why 4x didn't post the comparison part and why you didn't either.

Boise's record, conference finish, conference record, ranking AP/Coaches and bowl for the 5 years before 2013

2008 Boise 12-1 Conference Champions 8-0 ranking 11/13 Poinsettia
2009 Boise 14-0 Conference Champions 8-0 ranking 4/4 Fiesta
2010 Boise 12-1 Conference Champions 7-1 ranking 9/7 Vegas
2011 Boise 12-1 2nd behind TCU ranking 7-1 8/6 Vegas
2012 Boise 11-2 Conference Champions 7-1 ranking 18/14 Vegas

Comparing that to Boise 5 years previous shows less conference championships versus basically the same teams, more conference losses, no NY6 bowls, no 1 loss or zero loss seasons, no rankings in the top 10 and not being ranked, it's pretty clear Boise has gone down hill and quite a ways downhill compared to where they were. Considering it was a stretch then (the sweetheart ask was the nail in a closed coffin) it would seem that Boise has even less of a chance now than it did then.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk on how to tell if a program is going uphill or downhill by using previous time period to compare to current time period for said program.


Excellent. No go go watch the TED talk on how teams performance tends to go up and down. Pay special attention when it gets to the part when it discusses how impressive a program is when its "down years" still consist of either winning the league championship or playing in the CCG. If we are replacing UConn football with a program who's down years have consisted of winning its league or playing in the CCG---that's a winning trade.

Sigh.

Attack Coog search any of the damn way too many Boise threads that are sitting on an AAC board because certain mods like to keep them going.

I broke Boise down from like 2002 to 2012 and then 2013 till now. It's why I jumped the fourth or fifth iteration of fanhood about cherry picking. There is a clear downward slide that is continuing and just getting worse.

Except for Boise comes with lots of other baggage and no way to recruit in the AAC similar to WV in the big xii.

But hey this is our 100th version of this argument.

Can we move this non-AAC thread to off topic like the other 100?
(This post was last modified: 06-01-2021 12:56 AM by Foreverandever.)
06-01-2021 12:54 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #56
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 11:46 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 05:41 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(05-29-2021 08:08 AM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  I've never understood the fascination some on here have with Boyzee.

They're not close to anyone. They had their time in the sun but they're quickly fading away.

They don't bring much to the table. We don't need them by any stretch. Yet we're up to our arse in nerds around here wanting to add them.

I just don't get it.


Neither do I. Boise has gone downhill for the last few seasons, they have a limited future and if it were not for the fact that we do in fact need a 12th team no one would give a damn about them. On the other hand BYU is a worthy target. Unfortunately they value independence and will not join any conference but a P5 conference.

so the last 4 years of records:

2017 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 11-3 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 17–14
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon 38–28 end of year ranking 22 22

2018 Mountain West T–1st (Mountain) 10-3 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 16–19 OT
First Responder Bowl vs. Boston College Canceled[a] end of year ranking 23-24

2019 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 12 2 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Hawaii 31–10
Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington 7–38 end of year ranking 23-22

2020 Mountain West T–1st 5-2 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. San Jose State 20–34
Opted out of playing in a bowl game - end of year ranking NR

You are right... they have really gone down hill the last couple of years (written in sarcasm font).

As far as the future... Limited???... Not sure what you base that on. Do you have predictive information that you are not sharing?

4xGrad,

You are 100% correct.

No current AAC school, and no other non-P5 FBS school in the country has matched Boise State's record of achievement over the past decade, as the numbers in this table show:

..............................Football Teams Ranked in the Final AP Top 25

.......................2020...2019...2018...2017...2016...2015...2014...2013...2012

Boise St......................#23....#22....#22.........................#16..............#18

UCF............................#24....#11.....#6.....................................#10.........

Cincinnati...........#8.....#21...#24..............................................................

Memphis.....................#17.............#25..........................#25....................

Navy..........................#20....................................#18.............................

USF...............................................#21....#19..........................................

Houston.................................................................#8.............................

SMU.......................No teams in the Final AP Top 25 in the past decade.........

Tulsa......................No teams in the Final AP Top 25 in the past decade.........

Temple...................No teams in the Final AP Top 25 in the past decade.........

Tulane....................No teams in the Final AP Top 25 in the past decade.........

ECU.......................No teams in the Final AP Top 25 in the past decade.........


=============================================

This version of the table shows where each of the teams were ranked in the final Massey Composite Football Rankings, if they didn't finish in the Final AP Top 25:

..........................Final AP Top 25 Rankings are printed in black typeface.

..........................Final Massey Football Composite Rankings printed blue.

.......................2020...2019...2018...2017...2016...2015...2014...2013...2012

Boise St.............#28...#23....#22....#22....#32....#47.....#16....#53....#18

UCF...................#37...#24....#11......#6....#77...#127.....#54...#10...#42

Cincinnati...........#8.....#21...#24....#101...#98.....#67....#46....#59...#30

Memphis.............#45...#17...#63.....#25...#49.....#38.....#25...#102..#106

Navy.................#102..#20..#103.....#45...#50....#18......#58...#47....#70

USF...................#121..#97...#92....#21...#19.....#23...#109...#108..#89

Houston..............#81...#86...#78.....#52...#41......#8......#71...#49.....#91

.

The numbers in this table should make it as clear as day to anyone who doesn't understand why the Big East (in 2011-12) and the AAC (in 2020-21) have both showed so much interest in Boise State:

As far as the AP and Massey Rankings are concerned, no AAC program has been as consistently successful as Boise State has been over the past 9 seasons.


Only two AAC programs (Cincinnati and UCF) came anywhere near to matching Boise State's rankings during this period.

A rough estimate of Boise State's average final ranking, based on the data in the table above (and the fact that the final Massey Rankings tracked fairly closely with the final Top 25 rankings) was about #29th in the nation between 2012 and 2020. UCF's was ~#43rd in the nation. Cincinnati's average ranking was about #51st between 2012 and 2020.

Put another way: Their rankings since 2012 suggest that Boise has been a top 30 program, UCF has been a top 43 program, and Cincinnati has been ~ a top 50 program. However, Memphis has been making steady progress - - they have had a top 40 program between 2014 and 2020 (average rank: #37th).

As the data show, all six of the AAC teams that have made an appearance in the Final AP Top 25 between 2012 and 2020 have finished with a ranking of #91 or lower at least once during that period. Boise State's lowest ranking during that period was #53rd.

Boise State has had a top-35 quality football program in 6 (67%) of the last 9 seasons.

Cincinnati and UCF have had top-35 quality football programs in 4 (44.4%) of the last 9 seasons.

Memphis has had a top-35 quality football program in 3 (33.3%) of the last 9 seasons.

Navy and USF have had top-35 quality football programs in 2 (22.2%) of the last 9 seasons.

Houston has had a top-35 quality football program in 1 (11.1%) of the last 9 seasons.





.
(This post was last modified: 06-01-2021 05:49 AM by jedclampett.)
06-01-2021 03:18 AM
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CoastalJuan Online
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Post: #57
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-28-2021 09:53 AM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  
(05-27-2021 12:54 PM)8BitPirate Wrote:  *sad trombone noise

*** Official Thread to Morn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***

Tell me you went to ECU without telling me you went to ECU.

05-stirthepot05-stirthepot see you soon pirates!

That awkward moment after, when you and your cousin are left in bed staring at each other.

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06-01-2021 07:48 AM
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RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
06-01-2021 07:51 AM
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4xGrad Offline
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Post: #59
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 08:52 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 03:43 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 02:59 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 11:46 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 05:41 AM)Rob3338 Wrote:  Neither do I. Boise has gone downhill for the last few seasons, they have a limited future and if it were not for the fact that we do in fact need a 12th team no one would give a damn about them. On the other hand BYU is a worthy target. Unfortunately they value independence and will not join any conference but a P5 conference.

so the last 4 years of records:

2017 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 11-3 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 17–14
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon 38–28 end of year ranking 22 22

2018 Mountain West T–1st (Mountain) 10-3 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 16–19 OT
First Responder Bowl vs. Boston College Canceled[a] end of year ranking 23-24

2019 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 12 2 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Hawaii 31–10
Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington 7–38 end of year ranking 23-22

2020 Mountain West T–1st[b] 5-2 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. San Jose State 20–34
Opted out of playing in a bowl game - end of year ranking NR

You are right... they have really gone down hill the last couple of years (written in sarcasm font).

As far as the future... Limited???... Not sure what you base that on. Do you have predictive information that you are not sharing?

That's nice. Now let's do the actual comparison part and not just the one side stats.

Please provide the four years previous to 2013 (2008-2012) this will allow us to tell if Boise is indeed maintaining or going down hill from its previous success when it was invited to join the Big East.

Since the return on Boise was not considered significant enough then any decline would indicate they have little chance of improving enough to be valuable to the AAC and therefore worth the headache their behavior towards fellow conference mates creates. Of course the academic profiles are different so it's unlikely they survive a president's vote. Just for ***** and giggles as the marines say, let's see.

I think this is what you're looking for...

Final Massey Composite Ratings by year (from https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/) for Boise since pulling out of the Big East invitation at the end of the 2012 season:

2020 - 31
2019 - 23
2018 - 23
2017 - 25
2016 - 32
2015 - 47
2014 - 17
2013 - 53

With all due respect, that is better than any AAC school over that entire period, and it's not particularly close.

USFFan

(edited because the 2018 link wasn't correct)

No it isn't. I asked for the direct comparison to his presented data, not the particular data that you wanted to show. I want a comparison of the Boise before the big east invite compared to the time before now. I even told you why. Is Boise going down hill? Yes by a huge margin, which is why 4x didn't post the comparison part and why you didn't either.

Boise's record, conference finish, conference record, ranking AP/Coaches and bowl for the 5 years before 2013

2008 Boise 12-1 Conference Champions 8-0 ranking 11/13 Poinsettia
2009 Boise 14-0 Conference Champions 8-0 ranking 4/4 Fiesta
2010 Boise 12-1 Conference Champions 7-1 ranking 9/7 Vegas
2011 Boise 12-1 2nd behind TCU ranking 7-1 8/6 Vegas
2012 Boise 11-2 Conference Champions 7-1 ranking 18/14 Vegas

Comparing that to Boise 5 years previous shows less conference championships versus basically the same teams, more conference losses, no NY6 bowls, no 1 loss or zero loss seasons, no rankings in the top 10 and not being ranked, it's pretty clear Boise has gone down hill and quite a ways downhill compared to where they were. Considering it was a stretch then (the sweetheart ask was the nail in a closed coffin) it would seem that Boise has even less of a chance now than it did then.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk on how to tell if a program is going uphill or downhill by using previous time period to compare to current time period for said program.

"which is why 4x didn't post the comparison part"

Oh my gosh... I should have been right at my computer awaiting your post so I could have replied immediately.

So I think what we have here is a failure to communicate. We obviously have a different perception of "down hill"...

If you were to say Boise has taken a step back... I would agree, but when you say down hill My perception of down hill is a trend line that continually shows a trajectory in a negative direction. Meaning that each successive year the results would be worse than the previous. To me that is a "down hill" trend and I believe the results clearly do not show a down hill trend.

Other points people have posted here are very valid. Is Boise a good choice for expansion? They may not be. There are pros and cons. Many of those have been mentioned here. Every factor could be siloed and debated individually but that would not provide a complete picture.

I am only suggesting that any analysis (for any team) by the conference will probably focus on:

1) Do they bring money to the table? this must be evaluated with the input of the networks.

2) Do they add to the perception of "G6". This is a subjective measurement and difficult to value.

3) Will they be a good, positive partner? again, crystal ball projection based on past experiences. I think this is an area that Boise suffers a bit more than it is deserving based on "gossip", "innuendo" and perspective. I also believe that no one outside of the presidents of the schools and their representatives are really well placed to actually make that call. I think that judgment will be based on their interactions and relationships.

Geography will play a part. I do believe that it will not be as heavily weighted as some might suggest but I do believe it will be discussed and considered.

Is any school a good add? maybe, maybe not.

I am excited to watch the UCF BSU game coming up. To be honest I do not think it will tell the tale of directional trends for either school since they both have entirely new coaching staffs. But I do think it will effect the national perception of both at least in the shorter term.
(This post was last modified: 06-01-2021 08:07 AM by 4xGrad.)
06-01-2021 08:06 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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Post: #60
RE: *** Official Thread to Mourn the Loss of the Boise Mega Thread ***
(05-31-2021 09:27 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 08:52 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 03:43 PM)usffan Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 02:59 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  
(05-31-2021 11:46 AM)4xGrad Wrote:  so the last 4 years of records:

2017 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 11-3 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 17–14
Won Las Vegas Bowl vs. Oregon 38–28 end of year ranking 22 22

2018 Mountain West T–1st (Mountain) 10-3 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. Fresno State 16–19 OT
First Responder Bowl vs. Boston College Canceled[a] end of year ranking 23-24

2019 Mountain West 1st (Mountain) 12 2 Won Mountain West Championship Game vs. Hawaii 31–10
Lost Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington 7–38 end of year ranking 23-22

2020 Mountain West T–1st[b] 5-2 Lost Mountain West Championship Game vs. San Jose State 20–34
Opted out of playing in a bowl game - end of year ranking NR

You are right... they have really gone down hill the last couple of years (written in sarcasm font).

As far as the future... Limited???... Not sure what you base that on. Do you have predictive information that you are not sharing?

That's nice. Now let's do the actual comparison part and not just the one side stats.

Please provide the four years previous to 2013 (2008-2012) this will allow us to tell if Boise is indeed maintaining or going down hill from its previous success when it was invited to join the Big East.

Since the return on Boise was not considered significant enough then any decline would indicate they have little chance of improving enough to be valuable to the AAC and therefore worth the headache their behavior towards fellow conference mates creates. Of course the academic profiles are different so it's unlikely they survive a president's vote. Just for ***** and giggles as the marines say, let's see.

I think this is what you're looking for...

Final Massey Composite Ratings by year (from https://masseyratings.com/cf/arch/) for Boise since pulling out of the Big East invitation at the end of the 2012 season:

2020 - 31
2019 - 23
2018 - 23
2017 - 25
2016 - 32
2015 - 47
2014 - 17
2013 - 53

With all due respect, that is better than any AAC school over that entire period, and it's not particularly close.

USFFan

(edited because the 2018 link wasn't correct)

No it isn't. I asked for the direct comparison to his presented data, not the particular data that you wanted to show. I want a comparison of the Boise before the big east invite compared to the time before now. I even told you why. Is Boise going down hill? Yes by a huge margin, which is why 4x didn't post the comparison part and why you didn't either.

Boise's record, conference finish, conference record, ranking AP/Coaches and bowl for the 5 years before 2013

2008 Boise 12-1 Conference Champions 8-0 ranking 11/13 Poinsettia
2009 Boise 14-0 Conference Champions 8-0 ranking 4/4 Fiesta
2010 Boise 12-1 Conference Champions 7-1 ranking 9/7 Vegas
2011 Boise 12-1 2nd behind TCU ranking 7-1 8/6 Vegas
2012 Boise 11-2 Conference Champions 7-1 ranking 18/14 Vegas

Comparing that to Boise 5 years previous shows less conference championships versus basically the same teams, more conference losses, no NY6 bowls, no 1 loss or zero loss seasons, no rankings in the top 10 and not being ranked, it's pretty clear Boise has gone down hill and quite a ways downhill compared to where they were. Considering it was a stretch then (the sweetheart ask was the nail in a closed coffin) it would seem that Boise has even less of a chance now than it did then.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk on how to tell if a program is going uphill or downhill by using previous time period to compare to current time period for said program.


Excellent. No go go watch the TED talk on how teams performance tends to go up and down. Pay special attention when it gets to the part when it discusses how impressive a program is when its "down years" still consist of either winning the league championship or playing in the CCG. If we are replacing UConn football with a program who's down years have consisted of winning its league or playing in the CCG---that's a winning trade.


The idea that Boise is going downhill by a huge margin is utterly preposterous.

Or - - let's put it another way:

If Boise is going way downhill (and it's been a top 30 program (average ranking) over the past 9 seasons), then the AAC must be already dead and buried beneath the hill that Boise is supposedly sliding down.

.

The point is simply that you can't trash Boise State's football program without trashing the AAC, as well.

There isn't a single football program in the AAC that has been as good as Boise State has been - - over the past two decades.

.

Here's the "huge slide" somebody invented:

1999 unranked (#40 Massey Composite)
2000 unranked (#32 Massey Composite)
2001 unranked (#49 Massey Composite)
2002 #15
2003 #16
2004 #12
2005 unranked (#36 Massey Composite)
2006 #5
2007 unranked (#36 Massey Composite)
2008 #11
2009 #4

Median rank (their first 11 seasons): #16th.

Approximate mean rank (their first 11 seasons): #22nd

2010 #9
2011 #8
2012 #18
2013 unranked (#53 Massey Composite)
2014 #16
2015 unranked (#47 Massey Composite)
2016 unranked (#32 Massey Composite)
2017 #22
2018 #23
2019 #22
2020 unranked (#28 Massey Composite)

Median rank: #22nd.

Approximate mean final rank (their second 11 seasons): #25th

Dropping from a median rank of #16th to a median rank of #22, or from an approximate mean rank of #22nd to #25th isn't what anyone would describe as a "huge" or "major" slide.

The #2 non-P5 team in the country should be so lucky to slide "all the way down" to an average ranking of #25th in the nation.

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(This post was last modified: 06-01-2021 03:45 PM by jedclampett.)
06-01-2021 08:26 AM
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