.

With at least 4 FBS independents that might benefit from joining a football-only or hybrid conference constructed like the original Big East, and at least 5 or 6 FCS schools that are thought to be likely to become FBS schools in the years ahead, it may not be long before some discussions will begin to take place about scheduling alliances that could evolve into a new "G6" FBS conference by 2030 or thereabouts.

The ASUN has been mentioned by the online media as a possible future FBS conference which might include some FB-only members.

Another possibility might be a national "G6" FB-only conference with a footprint spanning multiple time zones.

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Current FBS teams that might consider joining or affiliating a "G6" FB conference:

UMass, UConn, Liberty (ASUN BB/oly member), NMSU (and possibly Army as an affiliate, like ND)

Some of the current FCS schools that have been mentioned as potential future FBS schools by various media outlets include

North Dakota State, James Madison, Jacksonville St., Florida A&M, Southern Illinois, Youngstown State, Sam Houston St., U. Texas - Arlington, Delaware, Villanova, North Carolina A&T, Montana, Montana St., South Dakota St., Weber St., Illinois St., UT-Chattanooga, EWU, EKU, UC-Davis, and Kennesaw State.

NOTE: Future ASUN FB school Jacksonville State has announced a FB scheduling affiliation with the WAC until the ASUN begins to compete in football.

https://sportsenthusiasts.net/2018/08/29/transitioning-from-fcs-to-fbs-part-2-potential-teams/

https://sportsenthusiasts.net/2018/08/29...ial-teams/

https://www.csnbbs.com/post-16854164.html

https://www.reddit.com/r/BigSouth/commen...lready_in/
https://herosports.com/power-five-split-...rger-ahah/


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If enough of the current FBS schools wanted to form a new FBS conference, and to do it quickly, it might look something like this:

West Division:............East Division:

North Dakota St..........UMass
Southern Illinois..........UConn
UT-Chattanooga..........Liberty
Eastern Kentucky........James Madison
Youngstown St............Jacksonville St.


However, the travel distances for such a conference might be prohibitive, particularly for the FCS to FBS schools, which would find it a challenge to make the jump even if the schools were in their own regions.

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Conferences such as the ASUN, which might be hoping to become FBS conferences would have the advantage of not having to start up an entirely new conference

It seems possible that an ASUN FBS conference might look something like this by 2030:

North Division:......................South Division:

UMass (FB-only)................Liberty (ASUN member)
UConn (FB-only)................Kennesaw St. (ASUN member)
EKU (ASUN member).........Jacksonville St. (ASUN member)
James Madison (FB-only).....Central Arkansas St (ASUN member)
S Illinois (FB-only)..............UT-Chattanooga (FB-only)
Youngstown St (FB-only).....Florida A&M (FB-only)

NOTE: Presumably, all or most of the FCS schools would make the transition to FBS by 2030, though this might be a challenge.

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This is just a guess by a CFB fan who's not very familiar with the ASUN's planning, but the possibility of a "G6" FBS conference has been getting a lot of discussion around the country, and I was wondering how some ASUN fans perceive the situation.

In particular, I'm wondering how receptive ASUN fans might be to the idea of having a hybrid FBS conference with a mixture of full ASUN members and FB-only teams from other conferences, whether they're currently FBS (e.g., UConn, UMass) or FCS (e.g., JMU, UT-Chattanooga).

Just tossing it out there for discussion.

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According to what the ASUN announced in February, ASUN Football starts this fall with EKU, JSU & UCA all playibg in the ASUN-WAC challenge so that they're eligible for the WAC's autobid, and KSU & UNA still playing in the Big South in order to be eligible for their autobid. Supposedly, the ASUN will have school 6 and/or school 7 on board for 2022.

I don't really know what the ASUN'S actual intentions are for FBS. But certainly the possibility of becoming an FBS conference, or more likely, the ASUN not kicking EKU, JSU, and/or UCA out should they pursue FBS Indy is what attracted them away from the OVC and the WAC. I can also say definitively that Liberty has no interest in being in an ASUN FBS conference.

It's also my understanding that the NCAA won't allow an football only FBS conference like they do for FCS. As far as your hypothetical list, the only schools that I had heard that had FBS aspirations that are not in the ASUN was JMU and NCA&T. Although, of the schools you listed all of them except NCA&T would have the trouble of convincing their conference of keeping their olympic sports or finding another one. Also, I'm fairly certain that FAMU tried the FBS/1A thing in 2004 and failed after 1 season. I'm not sure they're willing to try it again.

I'm going to make a couple assumptions:

1. The P5 would oppose giving up a bigger slice of the CFP payout. If another conference were added to FBS and included in the CFP agreement, the P5 would not give away more of their payout to make it happen.

2. The G5 would oppose giving up a share of their portion of the CFP payout as competition for money is already harsh and splitting it six ways instead of five would be brutal. Additionally, one more competitor for the NY6 game. Not only that, but it would likely increase the number of FBS schools which is further competition for P5 games.

3. An FBS football-only conference is currently not allowed and will not get a waiver. Likewise, conferences can't change classifications upwards so an FCS conference won't mass move up no matter how badly they want it or how much they say that's what they will do.

Even if #3 were allowed, I think the easiest way to get a G6 is to have a current G5 split up. Maybe C-USA doesn't like being so spread out and wants to split geographically. They may be able to convince the rest of the G5 to let them split and work out some sort of money division that results in no lost money for the other G5 conferences.

Absent that scenario, I could potentially see another conference form down the line of some individual schools that want to break away into something different that doesn't currently exist. They wouldn't get invited in the CFP pool as a G5 conference since they aren't part of the contract but are for all intents and purposes a G5 conference, unofficially.

(05-22-2021 09:51 PM)LUOrange Wrote:  According to what the ASUN announced in February, ASUN Football starts this fall with EKU, JSU & UCA all playibg in the ASUN-WAC challenge so that they're eligible for the WAC's autobid, and KSU & UNA still playing in the Big South in order to be eligible for their autobid. Supposedly, the ASUN will have school 6 and/or school 7 on board for 2022.

That's very interesting. It seems a little complicated, but workable.

(05-22-2021 09:51 PM)LUOrange Wrote:  I don't really know what the ASUN'S actual intentions are for FBS. But certainly the possibility of becoming an FBS conference, or more likely, the ASUN not kicking EKU, JSU, and/or UCA out should they pursue FBS Indy is what attracted them away from the OVC and the WAC.

That would seem to fit with the various rumors that have been circulating around on the internet.

Of course, the main sticking point that seems to have kept a lot of FCS from actually falling through with FBS transition plans is that it has often turned out to be prohibitively expensive to establish & maintain a successful FBS program.

(05-22-2021 09:51 PM)LUOrange Wrote:  I can also say definitively that Liberty has no interest in being in an ASUN FBS conference.

That's interesting.......I had imagined that they might have been the driving force behind the move to build an ASUN FBS conference!

Considering that they could have probably joined one of the G5 conferences by now if they had wanted to (which may or may not be the case), that makes me sort of wonder whether Liberty even wants to join a conference, or if they would prefer to go it alone, like BYU does.

(05-22-2021 09:51 PM)LUOrange Wrote:  It's also my understanding that the NCAA won't allow an football only FBS conference like they do for FCS.

I hadn't heard that, and if that's the case, I wonder what objections they would have to football-only FBS conferences.

(05-22-2021 09:51 PM)LUOrange Wrote:  As far as your hypothetical list, the only schools that I had heard that had FBS aspirations that are not in the ASUN was JMU and NCA&T. Although, of the schools you listed all of them except NCA&T would have the trouble of convincing their conference of keeping their olympic sports or finding another one.

Yes - what one usually finds are various websites that list a handful of potential FCS to FBS schools, and only about a 50% overlap in the schools that they list.

That's why I listed so many different websites that have listed potential FCS - TBS schools.

In addition to JMU - NDSU, Jacksonville State, and Sam Houston State seem to be among those that have gotten the most mentions.


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(05-22-2021 09:58 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  I'm going to make a couple assumptions:

1. The P5 would oppose giving up a bigger slice of the CFP payout. If another conference were added to FBS and included in the CFP agreement, the P5 would not give away more of their payout to make it happen.

That makes sense, in terms of their preferences, and how they would vote if it would come to a vote.

Ordinarily, the prospect of being blocked by the P5 conferences would be enough to deter anyone from taking a single step in the direction of forming a new G6 conference.

However - - purely hypothetically - - if they had the backing of a multi-billionaire the wherewithal to hire a top-notch law-firm (as unlikely as that would seem), if they were to file a class-action anti-trust complaint against the P5 conferences for engaging in anti-competitive practices by attempting to prevent them from having the same opportunities that any other sizable university would have, they might well be able to prevail in court.

(05-22-2021 09:58 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  2. The G5 would oppose giving up a share of their portion of the CFP payout as competition for money is already harsh and splitting it six ways instead of five would be brutal. Additionally, one more competitor for the NY6 game. Not only that, but it would likely increase the number of FBS schools which is further competition for P5 games.

This, too, would be a major discouraging factor, but the G5 conferences probably wouldn't have much of a leg to stand on if the "wannabee" G6 conferences were to take the case before a federal judge and appeal it all the way up to the circuit court level.

Strictly speaking, no organization has a constitutionally-protected right to prevent new organizations from having the same range of opportunities that they have had.

However, the plaintiff in such a hypothetical case would have to have extremely deep pockets!

(05-22-2021 09:58 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  3. An FBS football-only conference is currently not allowed and will not get a waiver. Likewise, conferences can't change classifications upwards so an FCS conference won't mass move up no matter how badly they want it or how much they say that's what they will do.

That's very interesting. I hadn't realized either of these things, though it would admittedly be very hard to figure out how to elevate an entire conference from FCS to FBS all at the same time.

Assuming that these things are true, then apparently, the only options would be for FBS independents to join existing FBS conferences (like Hawaii and Navy did), or for FBS teams to band together and start a new all-sports conference.

(05-22-2021 09:58 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  Even if #3 were allowed, I think the easiest way to get a G6 is to have a current G5 split up. Maybe C-USA doesn't like being so spread out and wants to split geographically. They may be able to convince the rest of the G5 to let them split and work out some sort of money division that results in no lost money for the other G5 conferences.

That may well be the case, and something like that could happen, although one wonders why a bunch of teams would decide intentionally to "blow up" their conference and start up a new one from scratch, unless all the teams simply hate and would be willing to do almost anything to get out of it.

Or maybe they would have other reasons for doing it...

(05-22-2021 09:58 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  Absent that scenario, I could potentially see another conference form down the line of some individual schools that want to break away into something different that doesn't currently exist. They wouldn't get invited in the CFP pool as a G5 conference since they aren't part of the contract but are for all intents and purposes a G5 conference, unofficially.

That's an interesting hypothetical scenario. Perhaps something like that could happen in the future, especially if a whole slew of FCS schools make the jump to FBS in the years/decades ahead.

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......................................................................................................

Thinking about some of these issues, and looking at the current conferences, these seem to be some of the implications:

A. Most of the current FBS independents appear to have a very limited range of options under the current rules:

1) try to persuade one of the all-sports conferences to invite one's school to join as a FB-only member

--However, there are only two current "semi-hybrid" conferences (the AAC and MWC) that currently accept FB-only members, and it's not clear that they would allow more than one per conference.

--Even if they would accept more than one FB-only member per conference, both of these conferences would be highly selective, making this a low-probability option for most of the FBS independents.

Moreover, currently they usually don't want to join the conferences that would be willing to invite them

2) try to obtain an invitation from one of the existing FBS conferences with the fewest members to become an all-sports member of their conference

--Unfortunately, this would only be considered desirable if one's school wishes to join the conference that invites it to join for all-sports, and that would be considered a low-probability event.

--For example, UMass was offered the opportunity to become an all-sports member of the MAC, but they preferred to continue on as an FBS independent.

--UMass might take the opportunity, if offered, to join the AAC as an all-sports member, but they're not currently on the AAC's "short list"

--Thus, option (2) may tend to be a relatively low probability option.

--Continuing along with the example of UMass, the only conference other than the MAC that wouldn't be excessively distant and might consider inviting them to join for all-sports would be the SBC, but UMass would have little reason to join any conference (including the SBC) that is lower-stature in basketball then their current basketball conference.

3) try to band together with a group of other teams, or with the leaders of two conferences that might consider merging, and thus opening up the opportunity to join an exciting new all-sports conference that might even permit FB-only members.

--However, the idea of persuading two conferences to merge and spin off a new conference isn't likely to appeal to very many schools or conferences.

4) if none of the options are possible, one might try to plan and scheme with one of the networks or other schools to find some ingenious way to cause one of the existing conferences to "blow up," in the hope that one's school would be one of the first in line to join a successor conference

--However, this type of strategy would be extremely risky, since it might have adverse consequences on existing conference schools, and might expose one's school to excessive legal risk or cause it to get the "death penalty" from the NCAA for unsportsmanlike activity.

--Moreover, even if it weren't ethically and legally questionable, it is so rare for a conference to "blow up," with a successor conference taking its place, that this type of strategy might have a low probability of success.

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So this seems to leave such schools with only one feasible high-probability option:

5) continue on as a FBS independent that is affiliated with one of the non-FB D1 conferences, and

a) try to develop the FB program into such a powerhouse that an invitation from a desirable conference will be forthcoming at some point in the future, and if that doesn't happen,

b) try to convince the NCAA or the courts that the current NCAA rules are excessively unfair to the FBS independents and that provisions should be made to grant them additional options.

......................................................................................................

B. That leaves another, larger category of schools: FCS schools that seek to make the transition to FBS.

--Again their options are very limited:

1) Plan on becoming an FBS independent, while maintaining current D1 conference affiliation

--However most FCS schools don't have the funding to pay for an FBS program without the kind of support that a conference affiliation provides.


2) Try to find a FBS conference with room to grow that will welcome one's school as a new all-sports member.

--This is the best option, but it will only be a possibility for a few more teams.

--Currently, there are 65 non-P5 teams and 5 non-P5 FBS (G5) conferences with an average of 11.8 teams per conference.

--It's not clear that any G5 conference - - other than the SBC - - would seriously consider adding any new FCS-to-FBS members at any point in the foreseeable future.

----Most conferences tend to be risk averse and to rule out the possibility of adding any new members that they wouldn't consider an absolutely "golden opportunity."

3) When the G5 conferences are considered one by one, it becomes apparent that there will probably be no more than 4 to 6 potential openings for new FCS-to-FBS teams in the years ahead.

a)--The SBC currently has 12 BB/olympic and 10 full members. It would seem unlikely that they would consider adding more than 4 more full members, and even this would require their network to provide revenue streams for the new FCS-to-FBS schools.

b)--The C-USA already has 14 members and doesn't seem to have any compelling reason to expand to 16.

c)--The MAC has had an extremely stable core membership, and hasn't had any luck at all in recent years when it comes to adding new members. The secret to their longevity is that they are the most regionally compact, low-mileage, low-cost FBS conference in the nation, and there are very few potential FCS-to-FBS schools in their region that would even consider adding.

d)--The AAC has made it clear that they would have absolutely no interest in adding a FCS-to-FBS team.

e)--That leaves the 12-team MWC, which has long been considered the #2 G5 FB/BB conference, overall, and would thus be considered one of the G5 conferences that would be least inclined to add a new FCS-to-FBS team.

--First, they are well situated at present with 12 FB/BB schools, and they have no need to add any new members. Moreover, as one of the conferences with the highest travel distances, they have an actual disincentive to add any schools that would increase their travel distances unless there should be an extremely compelling reason for doing so.

--The only compelling reasons they might have would be if they were to lose member(s) or if a very high-profile school like BYU were to express interest in joining.

--Thus, the only FCS-to-FBS team in their region that the MWC might consider adding, would probably be North Dakota State, and they probably wouldn't even consider adding NDSU unless they lose 1 or more members.

--If the MWC gets into a position in which it has to add 1 or more teams, it would probably be far more likely that they would start out by adding schools such as UTEP and NMSU, which are well within their geographical footprint. That might create an opportunity for one more FCS-to-FBS team to join the C-USA.

......................................................................................................


One of the things that all this seems to suggest is that any FCS school that is seriously interested in making the transition to FBS status might be well advised to do their due diligence and make the move as quickly as they judiciously can.

Given the likelihood that the SBC would be unlikely to add any more than 4 more FCS-to-FBS schools, and that there might be at most 1 or 2 other openings for new FCS-to-FBS G5 teams, the implication is clear - - there just aren't likely to be more than ~6 more FBS conference openings for the next group of FCS-to-FBS schools.

Not only that, but there's no guarantee that the SBC will add 4 more teams in their region. They might prefer to add only two, giving them 14 member schools (12 full and 2 BB/olympic members), which many conferences would consider more than sufficient, or their network may not be in a position to grant additional revenue streams for more than two new FCS-to-FBS teams.

......................................................................................................

Q: Ok, so where does that leave FBS college football at this point in the sports evolving history?

--Will the various forms of opposition that may rise up to prevent an eleventh FBS conference from coming into existence consign all but a tiny handful of the current FCS schools to permanent FCS status for time immemorial?

--Or would the FCS schools eventually find a way to cause enough rule changes to open up the possibility of an 11th or 12th FBS conference in the decades to come?

Which side will prevail? Will it be:

-- "The Immovable Object?"

.................or

-- "The Irresistible Force?"


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If all of the ASUN members were seeking to move to FBS could those other schools be accepted as football only members? Then the conference would be all sports and the football only members could play oly sports in another conference. If an ASUN member chose not to move to FBS they could join the Big South as a football only member.

If the full conference was rejected each school could move as an independent then form a conference after the fact. With the Liberty move stopping a school from moving looks to be near impossible. Dont see how a conference would be any difference in a court room. The money split is only around a million per school (correct me if Im wrong) this isnt a lot or definitely not a game stopper. The FBS v FBS payout difference vs FBS v FCS would make up the difference quickly.

Quote:3. An FBS football-only conference is currently not allowed and will not get a waiver. Likewise, conferences can't change classifications upwards so an FCS conference won't mass move up no matter how badly they want it or how much they say that's what they will do.

You aren't currently allowed to move up as an independent either, but Liberty did (as you're obviously aware). A well-funded lawsuit is usually enough to make the NCAA back down, and several schools banding together can accomplish just that.

This is not to comment on how likely it is or is not to happen. I think that's very up in the air, but the fact that there isn't currently a provision for it means little in and of itself. Of all schools in the nation Liberty should be keenly aware that those rules are not hard and fast.

It may also be complicated by the WAC looking to do the same thing. Their situation is a little different since they have their license from their previous existence as an FBS conference, but if they do it an another league us denied that will only put additional pressure on the NCAA to allow it if a conference pushes for it.

There's little, if any, reason for the Sun Belt to expand. At this point, adding new members only dilutes the money they make from bowl appearances and the NCAA tournament.

*THIS* is the primary reason Jacksonville State, UTC, and EKU have not moved up. They haven't been invited.

Liberty made the move without an invitation, but that's only because their resources allowed them to take such a chance. As long as indy status is working for them (and right now, it certainly is) they'll have no reason to join an FBS conference, including an FBS version of the ASUN. The only thing they'd consider at this stage is a move to an new all-sports conference that would substantially raise their level of competition in OLY sports. That probably rules out the Sun Belt (which would only be a slight upgrade at best over the ASUN). Short of a P5 invite, which is unlikely, I think Liberty's only conference options would be the American or C-USA, neither of which is expanding at the moment.

NDSU has no reason to move up. They're in the best FCS conference in the country, and their only regional G6 options would be a giant step down in competitiveness.

Speaking strictly as a JSU fan, I want no part of a G6 conference spanning 1,500+ miles. I've attended a NMSU game at troy state, and believe me, the trojan fans were not at all excited about that game. I'd rather not inflict that kind of pain on myself. The farthest west I'd be interested in would be around the DFW-Houston corridor, and then north to St. Louis, Indianapolis, on over to Virginia. If a solid G6 conference couldn't be built within that footprint, it has no reason being built at all.

(05-24-2021 11:20 AM)whupemall Wrote:  There's little, if any, reason for the Sun Belt to expand. At this point, adding new members only dilutes the money they make from bowl appearances and the NCAA tournament.

*THIS* is the primary reason Jacksonville State, UTC, and EKU have not moved up. They haven't been invited.

I wonder if if might be possible that the Sun Belt (or its broadcasting partner) has held off on adding any of those schools because they are still assessing the impact of the additions of the recent FCS-to-FBS teams. If that were the case, perhaps they might consider adding two more (?), but only if they could get the needed revenue increase from their broadcasting partner.

(05-24-2021 11:20 AM)whupemall Wrote:  Liberty made the move without an invitation, but that's only because their resources allowed them to take such a chance. As long as indy status is working for them (and right now, it certainly is) they'll have no reason to join an FBS conference, including an FBS version of the ASUN.

The only thing they'd consider at this stage is a move to an...all-sports conference that would substantially raise their level of competition in OLY sports. That probably rules out the Sun Belt (which would only be a slight upgrade at best over the ASUN).

Sounds like they're pretty happy where they are, and that they have no reservations about playing as a FBS independent.

(05-24-2021 11:20 AM)whupemall Wrote:  Short of a P5 invite, which is unlikely, I think Liberty's only conference options would be the American or C-USA, neither of which is expanding at the moment.

That would seem to be the case. However, there might be some mutual benefits to Liberty and the Sun Belt if Liberty were to become a FB-only member of the SBC - - if all parties including the broadcast network were sufficiently interested.

(05-24-2021 11:20 AM)whupemall Wrote:  NDSU has no reason to move up. They're in the best FCS conference in the country, and their only regional G6 options would be a giant step down in competitiveness.

They certainly don't seem eager to make the jump any time soon. However, it might be possible that they would join the MWC if they lose 3 teams to the AAC at some point, which is a real, though somewhat remote possibility at present.

I could see the MWC adding NMSU and UTEP to replace two MWC schools, but it's possible that they might go with NDSU to fill the remaining slot to supplement their northern tier, which might be hit the hardest. There might also be some possibility that the MWC might wish to expand to 14 FB schools at some point in the future.

(05-24-2021 11:20 AM)whupemall Wrote:  Speaking strictly as a JSU fan, I want no part of a G6 conference spanning 1,500+ miles. I've attended a NMSU game at troy state, and believe me, the trojan fans were not at all excited about that game. I'd rather not inflict that kind of pain on myself. The farthest west I'd be interested in would be around the DFW-Houston corridor, and then north to St. Louis, Indianapolis, on over to Virginia. If a solid G6 conference couldn't be built within that footprint, it has no reason being built at all.

If I'm reading this post correctly, in between the lines, I have the impression that you wouldn't be surprised to see an entirely new "G6" hybrid conference emerge., based around a core of current FBS teams, most of which might be FB-only members, but which might be needed from early on to generate network interest and to field enough teams for a FB championship game.

There would probably be enough potential FCS-to-FBS schools in the footprint that you sketched out to start up a conference with 8 football schools (UMass, UConn, Liberty FB-only, plus 5 new FBS schools over the next 5-10 years. Given the success of programs such as App. State and Coastal Carolina, it might have a shot to succeed, especially if Liberty were to join and remain a contender like they were in 2020.

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(05-24-2021 10:33 AM)eku05 Wrote:  

Quote:3. An FBS football-only conference is currently not allowed and will not get a waiver. Likewise, conferences can't change classifications upwards so an FCS conference won't mass move up no matter how badly they want it or how much they say that's what they will do.

You aren't currently allowed to move up as an independent either, but Liberty did (as you're obviously aware).

My gut feeling is that you may be right in suggesting that - citing Liberty as an example - if a group of FCS teams wants to band together and start up an independent FBS "football group" (they wouldn't have to call it a conference), while remaining in their current non-FB conferences, nobody would try to stop them, especially if they were able to work out some kind of a broadcasting deal.

The NCAA probably has valid reasons for preventing new "football-only" conferences - since they don't want the stability of the other conferences to be threatened, but on the other hand, they could probably figure out how to grant a special waiver for one new FBS conference to be formed.

One idea the NCAA might consider would be to tell the new "group" that they would be allowed to play as a FB-only "conference" for up to 10 years, but to maintain its official "conference" status for more than a decade, 70% of the teams would have to become all-sports members.

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(05-24-2021 01:06 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(05-24-2021 10:33 AM)eku05 Wrote:  

Quote:3. An FBS football-only conference is currently not allowed and will not get a waiver. Likewise, conferences can't change classifications upwards so an FCS conference won't mass move up no matter how badly they want it or how much they say that's what they will do.

You aren't currently allowed to move up as an independent either, but Liberty did (as you're obviously aware).

My gut feeling is that you may be right in suggesting that - citing Liberty as an example - if a group of FCS teams wants to band together and start up an independent FBS "football group" (they wouldn't have to call it a conference), while remaining in their current non-FB conferences, nobody would try to stop them, especially if they were able to work out some kind of a broadcasting deal.

The NCAA probably has valid reasons for preventing new "football-only" conferences - since they don't want the stability of the other conferences to be threatened, but on the other hand, they could probably figure out how to grant a special waiver for one new FBS conference to be formed.

One idea the NCAA might consider would be to tell the new "group" that they would be allowed to play as a FB-only "conference" for up to 10 years, but to maintain its official "conference" status for more than a decade, 70% of the teams would have to become all-sports members.

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I was referring more to the FCS conference moving up part. I think the Football only part is harder to fight legally because it isn't directly preventing schools from access to the division itself. It's just a rule that applies to everyone equally.

Even if you could get a waiver, single sport conferences are notoriously unstable, and I'd be pretty hesitant about trying it with so much on the line.

I don't know the ASun schools too well, but the incoming WAC schools have no shot at FBS anytime soon. Last pre covid season, 2019, Sam Houston only averaged 4 thousand something fans for home games. Clearly, they have little support.

After the next couple of years, I have no idea what either the ASun or WAC may look like for football, but on the WAC side, there's little chance at FBS.

Incidentally, for New Mexico State, I'd take independence over a WAC FBS anyway. We get a full schedule, play our rivals, 6-7 Mountain West teams, and some pay day games as things stand.

UCA's AD walked back his comments about the ASUN collectively seeking FBS. He probably did so at the request of Gumball, who clearly said on a couple occasions after the UCA AD's initial comments that the ASUN would only be FCS. So I'm not sure what the ASUN's actual intenions are for FCS or FBS football, I don't think they'd want to make a FBS grand announcement until they're ready. However, I think the only guarantee that Gumball and the ASUN gave EKU, JSU and UCA was that they wouldn't get booted for going FBS Indy. I think Gumball's implication was clear in his pressers this past winter.

Also, as I and others have stated that Liberty has no interest in an ASUN FBS conference. Heck, our AD wasn't on board with the ASUN-United dual conference thing. I, also don't think JMU would have any interest in it either, especially when they spurned a few overtures from the Sun Belt.

As far as NMSU goes, I don't mind playing them. For their sake and for competitiveness sake, I hope they get better. Same thing with UMASS. Liberty has signed to play NMSU, ODU and UMASS to long term football deals so it'd be nice to develop some sort of rivalry with each school. I just wish the football relationships would result in regular MBB & WBB games.

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The last two posts certainly seem to throw cold water on the notion that the WAC or ASUN will become FBS conferences.

If they don't, and if no new G6 conference comes into existence, this might mean that the number of FBS independents will start to grow if/when the next few FCS teams make the jump to FBS, although the first two that make the jump might find a place in the SBC.

For example, if Jacksonville St., Sam Houston St., and EKU make the jump, and the Sun Belt were only to add two of the three, the number of FBS independents would grow from 6 to 7. Then, if Central Arkansas and James Madison were to make the jump, there would be 9 FBS independents - enough to form an 11th FBS football-only conference (which might not be able to hold a NCAA-sanctioned championship game, but would still constitute an FBS football league or conference in all other respects).

Even though a football-only league of FBS independents might not be able to hold a NCAA-approved championship game, it could still hold an unsanctioned, unofficial championship game, and its best teams would be able to play in bowl games, as BYU, Army, and Liberty have done.

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If NMSU desires to stay independent and not pursue a football conference then the schools in the ASUN and WAC would probably prefer the indy route, too. Liberty with their funds is a different animal than the others so I dont view their decision to carry any weight with the other schools.

Scheduling alliances might be a helpful route to all involved. If a school could pick up 4-5 non indy games then 6-7 games within the indy pool an AD would have a manageable scheduling situation. According to the 4-5 non indy games but this could build a brand quicker than CUSA, SBC, MAC or MWC conference slate.

(05-28-2021 10:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

The last two posts certainly seem to throw cold water on the notion that the WAC or ASUN will become FBS conferences.

If they don't, and if no new G6 conference comes into existence, this might mean that the number of FBS independents will start to grow if/when the next few FCS teams make the jump to FBS, although the first two that make the jump might find a place in the SBC.

For example, if Jacksonville St., Sam Houston St., and EKU make the jump, and the Sun Belt were only to add two of the three, the number of FBS independents would grow from 6 to 7. Then, if Central Arkansas and James Madison were to make the jump, there would be 9 FBS independents - enough to form an 11th FBS football-only conference (which might not be able to hold a NCAA-sanctioned championship game, but would still constitute an FBS football league or conference in all other respects).

Even though a football-only league of FBS independents might not be able to hold a NCAA-approved championship game, it could still hold an unsanctioned, unofficial championship game, and its best teams would be able to play in bowl games, as BYU, Army, and Liberty have done.

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The schools that move up have to show the ability to do so. Liberty got in but a lot of that had to do with they had the fan support and money to justify a move to INDY. Of the FCS teams that would likely get a waiver to move up would be JSU, JMU, Delaware, NDSU, SDSU. There are some schools that might get the wavier, those would be EKU and Missouri State, schools that have fan support but maybe haven’t been consistently winning a lot recently. There are others but I’m just using examples.

(05-28-2021 11:02 AM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  If NMSU desires to stay independent and not pursue a football conference then the schools in the ASUN and WAC would probably prefer the indy route, too. Liberty with their funds is a different animal than the others so I dont view their decision to carry any weight with the other schools.

Scheduling alliances might be a helpful route to all involved. If a school could pick up 4-5 non indy games then 6-7 games within the indy pool an AD would have a manageable scheduling situation. According to the 4-5 non indy games but this could build a brand quicker than CUSA, SBC, MAC or MWC conference slate.

Well, as an institution, I'm sure the AD has finding an FBS conference home as the primary medium term goal for New Mexico State, but there's only so much a school can do to make it happen. If your football isn't good, you simply aren't desirable.

Being an Indy certainly not the easiest route. And not ideal in some ways. But very doable to be Indy these days. Mainly depends on how many other indys there are to play. I may not be the majority, but I quite enjoy the Aggies schedules and opponents as an Independent.

But I'd rather be Indy than locked in a conference that doesn't allow scheduling time for rivals, pay games etc. We need those to pay the bills, and when you have a wide open schedule, you can get an Alabama, Kentucky, or Arkansas game late in the season when they have a week off and other schools are locked into their conference commitments.

(05-28-2021 10:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

The last two posts certainly seem to throw cold water on the notion that the WAC or ASUN will become FBS conferences.

If they don't, and if no new G6 conference comes into existence, this might mean that the number of FBS independents will start to grow if/when the next few FCS teams make the jump to FBS, although the first two that make the jump might find a place in the SBC.

For example, if Jacksonville St., Sam Houston St., and EKU make the jump, and the Sun Belt were only to add two of the three, the number of FBS independents would grow from 6 to 7. Then, if Central Arkansas and James Madison were to make the jump, there would be 9 FBS independents - enough to form an 11th FBS football-only conference (which might not be able to hold a NCAA-sanctioned championship game, but would still constitute an FBS football league or conference in all other respects).

Even though a football-only league of FBS independents might not be able to hold a NCAA-approved championship game, it could still hold an unsanctioned, unofficial championship game, and its best teams would be able to play in bowl games, as BYU, Army, and Liberty have done.

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The only way the Sun Belt adds anyone is if someone gets poached by the AAC. That would require AAC schools getting poached by P5s so its probably not likely. Besides we already said no to EKU and I'm not sure they've done anything to warrant an unvite. I dont think the SBC Alabama schools want anything to do with JSU and like Todor said SHSU isnt an option for a variety of reasons.

(05-29-2021 11:22 AM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(05-28-2021 10:04 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

The last two posts certainly seem to throw cold water on the notion that the WAC or ASUN will become FBS conferences.

If they don't, and if no new G6 conference comes into existence, this might mean that the number of FBS independents will start to grow if/when the next few FCS teams make the jump to FBS, although the first two that make the jump might find a place in the SBC.

For example, if Jacksonville St., Sam Houston St., and EKU make the jump, and the Sun Belt were only to add two of the three, the number of FBS independents would grow from 6 to 7. Then, if Central Arkansas and James Madison were to make the jump, there would be 9 FBS independents - enough to form an 11th FBS football-only conference (which might not be able to hold a NCAA-sanctioned championship game, but would still constitute an FBS football league or conference in all other respects).

Even though a football-only league of FBS independents might not be able to hold a NCAA-approved championship game, it could still hold an unsanctioned, unofficial championship game, and its best teams would be able to play in bowl games, as BYU, Army, and Liberty have done.

.

The only way the Sun Belt adds anyone is if someone gets poached by the AAC. That would require AAC schools getting poached by P5s so its probably not likely. Besides we already said no to EKU and I'm not sure they've done anything to warrant an unvite. I dont think the SBC Alabama schools want anything to do with JSU and like Todor said SHSU isnt an option for a variety of reasons.

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Right now, it doesn't look like the AAC is interested in adding any teams from any region but the west. Could that change in a few years? Possibly, if a non-western team starts to appear in the final top 25 rankings year after year. There might be a couple of SBC teams that could do that.

Will the Sun Belt will stay put at 10 teams for the next few years? Sounds like they might, but I would be surprised if they don't expand to 12 schools by the end of the decade. Adding a couple of schools with strong viewership potential would be a logical step forward from the vantage point of trying to generate more broadcasting revenue.

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