(05-09-2021 07:30 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  I’m trying to count up all the NCAAT appearances this year by JMU teams. There’s been so many I may miss one or two so readers please add to or correct my list.

NCAAT Appearances:

Women’s Tennis
Women’s Golf
Women’s Swimming & Driving
Women’s LAX
Women’s Softball (anticipated)
Men’s Soccer
Men’s Football

In the competitive but just missed category:

Women’s Field Hockey (CAAT Finals loss)
Men’s Basketball (CAA Regular Season co-Champ)
Women’s Basketball (CAAT Semi-Final loss...or was it a loss in the Final?)

I've had several previous posts about how W&M has never gone without at least one conference championship in any year of the CAA's existence. This year (as Bubba also pointed out) Baseball is our last chance. Meanwhile, contrast that with the success that JMU has had during this Covid year. Our lack of preparation in some sports and lack of proper scheduling has really cost us this year. Longstanding championship streaks in Men's and Women's Cross Country and Men's Swimming were broken this year. Women's Tennis has lost two years in a row in the finals ('19, '21) after previously winning at least 4-5 in a row. A few more years like this one will allow JMU to get within sniffing distance of our CAA record for most conference championships. The new Athletic Director will have their hands full getting W&M back to its winning ways.

The stat classes I took at W&M taught me about small sample sizes.

(05-11-2021 04:59 PM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  The stat classes I took at W&M taught me about small sample sizes.

Hmm, this sample size covers 22 sports (out of 23) ...with zero championships. I'd say that is enough of a sample size to indicate that this has been a record-breaking bad year for W&M athletics.

(05-11-2021 07:03 PM)Zorch Wrote:  

(05-11-2021 04:59 PM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  The stat classes I took at W&M taught me about small sample sizes.

Hmm, this sample size covers 22 sports (out of 23) ...with zero championships. I'd say that is enough of a sample size to indicate that this has been a record-breaking bad year for W&M athletics.

I agree that this is a sample size of one year, and that year was bad with respect to W&M winning conference championships. I disagree that any significant conclusions can be drawn or that any large-scale changes should be made in response to one bad year, even setting aside the circumstances of the one bad year.

(05-11-2021 07:22 PM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  

(05-11-2021 07:03 PM)Zorch Wrote:  

(05-11-2021 04:59 PM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  The stat classes I took at W&M taught me about small sample sizes.

Hmm, this sample size covers 22 sports (out of 23) ...with zero championships. I'd say that is enough of a sample size to indicate that this has been a record-breaking bad year for W&M athletics.

I agree that this is a sample size of one year, and that year was bad with respect to W&M winning conference championships. I disagree that any significant conclusions can be drawn or that any large-scale changes should be made in response to one bad year, even setting aside the circumstances of the one bad year.

There were a lot of coaching changes, massive turnover in training staff, and lack of financial support leading up to 2020/21. Then we had the pandemic. I'm not sure that those factors lead to decline, but they are other points to consider. I don't know if our not being able to handle scheduling had much to do with it. Not sure how a conclusion is made that teams weren't prepared.

I would add that over the past few years, that while it seems that teams in the CAA have "caught up" the reality may be that our programs have dropped. We are rarely if ever ranked in the top 25 in any sport. We remain "competitive" in the CAA, but in some sports we had previously been competitive with ACC teams. Being at or near the top of CAA standings for us is now not as common as it once was. Aside from swimming and cross-country, we have rarely won any championship in the last 5-10 years. Its hard to gauge exactly what is happening, but the overall trend has been concerning to me for awhile and I dont think its solely coaching-related. Facilities have improved, but our peers have done the same if not more (Kaplan really truly needs to be a go). Its also possible that our slow slip in academic rankings has dimmed what has been our most attractive feature to some student athletes.

(05-12-2021 05:50 AM)Tribe32 Wrote:  ...Then we had the pandemic. .......Not sure how a conclusion is made that teams weren't prepared.

First, to address some of Tribe32's points: the comment about W&M teams not being prepared can be shown with just two quick examples. The MBB announcers stated several times during the year, and they quoted some of the players, that the late date for starting team practices plus the fact that none of the players were able to practice together during the summer (especially the incoming freshmen) were crucial reasons why team chemistry took longer to develop this year. Similarly, Women's Tennis Player of the Year Mila Saric (who is from the Canary Islands) stated that the complete lockdown over the summer (where she didn't even leave her house for three months) had a hugely detrimental effect on her practice time. W&M lost an early match to JMU 7-0 due to lack of practice, whereas two months later they were competitive in the CAA Finals (losing a match that could truly have gone either way). Both of these examples highlight how the pandemic changed things.

Which leads to my second point. The pandemic changed things for everybody! Yet, somehow, other CAA teams were able to win 22 championships (so far; Baseball isn't done yet) this year. Roughly speaking, multiply 23 sports by 32 conferences and you get 736 college teams that were able to overcome the pandemic adversity (not even counting other teams that earned at-large berths in the many various NCAA tournaments). So, sure, the pandemic wreaked havoc...but it did so for everybody and shouldn't be used as an excuse for poor performances. In my opinion, W&M used the pandemic as cover for hiding/excusing poor play and to save money on scheduling. They were not "All In" this year. They would receive more credit from me if they had simply "opted out" of all sports in October. They would have had a ton of time to get their act together on finding a new Athletic Director.

(05-12-2021 07:23 AM)nogretheogre Wrote:  I would add that over the past few years, that while it seems that teams in the CAA have "caught up" the reality may be that our programs have dropped. We are rarely if ever ranked in the top 25 in any sport. We remain "competitive" in the CAA, but in some sports we had previously been competitive with ACC teams. Being at or near the top of CAA standings for us is now not as common as it once was. Aside from swimming and cross-country, we have rarely won any championship in the last 5-10 years. Its hard to gauge exactly what is happening, but the overall trend has been concerning to me for awhile and I dont think its solely coaching-related. Facilities have improved, but our peers have done the same if not more (Kaplan really truly needs to be a go). Its also possible that our slow slip in academic rankings has dimmed what has been our most attractive feature to some student athletes.

I am in 100% agreement with Nogre that this rock bottom year has been in the making for several years now. Don't know whether the decline should be blamed on Reveley/Rowe (on whose watches it occurred) or on Driscoll/Huge/Martin (who bore first-line responsibility). I think the answer is probably "all of the above". However, this gradual yet alarming slow-but-sure slide must be reversed upon the hiring of the new AD. It cannot be overstated how important this next hire is. It will shape the next 10 years of W&M sports. I'm pretty sure that I won't live long enough to ride out another bad hire and wait for the next golden age.

IMO this thread is driven by no news items and recency bias. Throw in some "I want to be mad at Huge but she's gone now" and here we are.

(05-12-2021 12:44 PM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  IMO this thread is driven by no news items and recency bias. Throw in some "I want to be mad at Huge but she's gone now" and here we are.

You must have missed the initial sentences. Here is the news: W&M is in imminent danger of winning no CAA championships this year....for the first time ever!! That's news!

How many other CAA schools have had a championship 0-fer in an academic year? What's our championship trend in the last 5 and 10 years? There's no context provided, just a single data point and "seems". This is a slow news day thread highlighting a statistical anomaly in the most abnormal year in the history of sports at W&M. This is an ex-parrot.

If only someone had the foresight and stones to pick up the can that was kicked down the road for so long and try to do something about it. Campus admin and athletic department knew/know sports need to be cut to remain competitive and financially viable in other sports. We have an unsustainable number of sports....so all must suffer?

JMU #of sports ->18
Elon->15
Hofstra-17
etc......


Here is an excerpt of the Hartford Board's release on dropping to DIII.

The mission of Division III athletics is the best path to meet these goals. As the NCAA Division III philosophy states, “Colleges and universities in D-III place the highest priority on the overall quality of the educational experience and on the successful completion of all students’ academic programs. We believe this model bridges the academic and sport opportunities that are hallmarks of higher education and stresses that our student-athletes are—first and foremost—members of our campus community pursuing academic degrees while enriching themselves and our community through athletic competition.”


WM options are 1. Cut certain sports and stay D1....2.Cut football and stay DI...3.Drop to DIII

Paint me the bad lady but this be the facts and what is coming. Some might say, "Cut deep and cut wide".

I think your rationale is spot on. Very hard to swallow for some people, but it makes sense. The sports that are being asked to self-sustain are hanging on by a thread and eventually will just die on the vine. The college had to reinstate them to get egg off of face. I think there are enough big donors who will pony up money for a while, but long term shrinking the number of teams is the only way to solve the money issue without big revenue generating sports. I don't think that cutting football is going to happen, so another lever needs to be pulled.

I just hope that moving the Tribe Club out of the Athletic Department isn't a signal of moving to DIII.

(05-13-2021 12:24 AM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  How many other CAA schools have had a championship 0-fer in an academic year? What's our championship trend in the last 5 and 10 years? There's no context provided, just a single data point and "seems". This is a slow news day thread highlighting a statistical anomaly in the most abnormal year in the history of sports at W&M. This is an ex-parrot.

The "slow news day" that you are talking about is what Tribe fans are seeing now and will continue to see in future concerning Tribe athletic successes -- unless the new AD turns things around quickly. Nogre and Tribe32 had no trouble discerning that this downward trend was the context of this thread.

To answer your questions: you can look up the CAA championship history on the CAA website at this link (note that it only goes up to 2017-2018, which is about the same time that D'Antonio replaced Yeager; I haven't gotten around to contacting them yet to update it (you can feel free to do so)). https://static.caasports.com/custompages...champs.pdf

Note that, understandably, the more recent CAA schools have had less championships, yet their total number compared to their years in the league indicate that they had some drought years. (Drexel, a perennial bottom feeder in regards to championships, has had a great year this year with championships in MBB, WBB, MLAX, and they are playing in the NCAAT in WLAX and their Softball team is doing great). Part of the point about W&M is that we are an original member (38 years) and have never failed to win a championship. Just being an original member doesn't make that easy. UR was an original member and yet as early as '86-'87 they had a year with no championships. The lack of the most recent years in the CAA data makes the current trend not as readily apparent but the Tribe's "usual suspects" (XC, WTennis, Swimming) have been the only teams keeping us winning lately and all of those failed to win this year. It is absolutely a trend that W&M hasn't won in any high profile sport in a number of years. Even in the "lesser" sports, W&M's success has decreased. At one time the Tribe dominated in Field Hockey, WSoccer, and WTrack but only Field Hockey is making a comeback with one CAA title within the past four years.

The only parrot I hear is the constant squawking from you of "turn off this thread, turn off this thread". Listen, it is quite simple: if you are not interested in the subject matter or don't like the uncomfortable direction that a thread is going, then just don't read it!

Average Division 3 enrollment is 2750. Average number of sports 18.
Average ODAC enrollment is 2800.
Average Division 2 enrollment is 3848.
We have almost no peers in either division and there are few Division 2 teams
nearby.

By all measures, we are a Division 1 university. The only issue is how many sports we can finance and which ones to cut, if needed. Basketball will obviously be supported.
If we don't go "All In" with football, I suspect the average donor will give less generously. You can get great seats and parking for basketball with just a modest donation. Costs drop without football but don't forget the reduced donations.

Can we stop with the D2 & D3 talk? It's the most ridiculous thing I've read on this forum, and that's saying a lot.

The new AD will most likely move to cutting teams in an effort to get us to some semblance of financial stability. I say, for men, if it doesn't start with a B, F, or S, cut it. For women, if it starts with a G or T, cut it. Hunker down, shield from the 2 week backlash, and move forward.



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(05-13-2021 12:24 AM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  How many other CAA schools have had a championship 0-fer in an academic year? What's our championship trend in the last 5 and 10 years? There's no context provided, just a single data point and "seems". This is a slow news day thread highlighting a statistical anomaly in the most abnormal year in the history of sports at W&M. This is an ex-parrot.

Almost every single one ever. We have won 3 this year. That brings us up to a total of 7 ever in the CAA. So yes others have dealt with 0-fers and way worse than just a single academic year too. 20 years in the CAA for Drexel and 7 total titles (3 being this year with mens and womens basketball and mens lax)