Longhorn
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RE: Should W&M STAY in the CAA?
(05-01-2021 01:27 PM)JMaddy Wrote: (05-01-2021 07:44 AM)Longhorn Wrote: (05-01-2021 12:54 AM)JMaddy Wrote: (04-30-2021 08:34 PM)Longhorn Wrote: (04-30-2021 08:23 PM)82hawk Wrote: Time heals all wounds. In the world of athletics, past issues can always be resolved. With ASU in the Sunbelt now, the dynamics have changed and JMU/ASU would be a fantastic centerpiece for the conference. I am sure they'd go to bat for JMU. The Sunbelt also has tp be careful that ASU doesn't move to another conference, so they need to keep ASU happy, and a JMU invite would probably do that. My main point was that basketball isn't stopping anything though.
JMU would likely still be interested in the Sunbelt if the invitation was FB only, otherwise it’s never going to happen. JMU draws the vast majority of its applicants and enrolled student body from northern Virginia and NJ/PA and NY/CT. JMU has yet to see any value in using its other varsity sports to appeal to students from NC/TN/KY/GA.
I'll defer to you since you're an actual professor at the school but do you really think JMU gets much impact from CAA basketball/Oly sports in the Northeast to make a difference in student recruitment?
The NE states are famous for not caring about college sports outiside of the ACC/B1G schools. Is it much different for women's sports/students? Because, especially if we went SBC for football, we would eliminate most of the NE schools we face on the reg, and would do so under almost any realistic FBS realignment. Unless someone like Temple is willing to move away from the AAC to whatever East Coast/Appalachia conference emerges (highly unlikely), we aren't going to have anyone north of us in any existing or mythical G5 with the exception of Delaware should they move up too, which we all know isn't going to happen.
The only G5 schools north of JMU in the east are Buffalo (barely an east school, more aligned to midwest), Temple (will always be Big East/AAC), Navy (won't align with us), Army (won't align with us), UCONN (HAHA), UMASS (HAHAHAHA). The only possibily I would see to keep the NE in play is if Temple joins and they would only do so if UMASS and UCONN (and maybe Navy and/or Army) join in all sports. Funny how Temple could be the lynchpin for an FBS move for JMU. Could make for an amazing conference though:
UMASS, UCONN, Temple, Army, Navy, JMU, Marshall, ODU, Liberty, ECU, App St., Charlotte
Yes, JMU does see great value in its historic recruiting posture, and continues to reap substantial benefits from it. JMU would/could benefit even more if JMU weren’t self-limited in the percentage of out-of-state admissions.
In-state JMU is essentially a northern Virginia school (because that’s where the most people live), and geographically JMU is situated closer to those northern states (all located between a 2-8 hour drive). Potential out-of-state students love the beauty of JMU’s campus nestled in a scenic, smaller college town in the Shenandoah Valley, and out-of-state parents love having their children in closer proximity to home connected by a major interstate highway. JMU’s price point is also lower or very competitive with those northern college options too, and yet is seen as offering more for the money. In-state students from northern Virginia see JMU as a rural retreat, and in-state students from more rural areas of Virginia see JMU as “big” but not so big as to be scary. It’s a good niche.
Bottom line, aligning varsity sports with a more southern orientation (where lacrosse, soccer, and field hockey aren’t played at a high level) wouldn’t do much for those sports, and recruiting for basketball and football can recruit from anywhere...however the majority of those student athletes in BB and FB are still going to come from Virginia, Maryland, PA, and NJ, with only the occasional recruit from NC, GA or FL.
Overlaying all of this is the fact the number of High School graduates seeking college is projected to fall rather dramatically over the next two decades. The number of women as a percentage of those college bound students will rise, and the number of students first attending a community college and then seeking to transfer to a 4-year college will also rise. These are variables that will impact American higher education in significant ways, and dearly hurt the enrollment at many schools. None of these considerations are a secret or unknown to the pros dealing with college recruitment, admission or retention. JMU’s recruitment profile and strategy takes into account these factors, and offering a well-balanced, well-funded and stable range of varsity sports is one aspect of the recruitment posture. Again, JMU is situated in an enviable niche, one that’s not likely to change anytime soon.
Ok let me phrase it differently, in your mind does playing Northeastern, Drexel, Delaware, the State of Towson, and Hofstra really make any difference in recruiting the students (not student athletes) from the northern mid-Atlantic states?
Because if JMU went with FB to the SBC (which you said we were willing to do) and kept the Oly/basketball programs in the CAA we'd lose the football ties to UNH, URI, VU, Maine, Albany, and Stony Brook. So the JMU presence in the NE as a recruiting tool would be gone outside of NJ/PA/MD in any post-CAA world for football regardless of the Oly/BB home. All the remaining CAA schools are already in the south (UNCW, Elon, CoC, W&M).
When I went to JMU in the 90s aside from the NoVA and Richmond crew my closest circle of friends all came from MD (1), RI (2), CT (3), VT (1), PA (2), NY (1), and MA (2) and none of them knew much about JMU sports prior to coming to JMU. While times change I suspect the northeastern orientation toward pro sports hasn't changed THAT much. I just don't think the conference affiliation is going to impact the students we attract for many of the reasons you mentioned as why we're in an ideal spot to get quality students from across the mid Atlantic/norteastern states.
Things have changed quite a bit at JMU since the 90s. Enrollment has doubled. Construction of all types has been almost nonstop. The footprint of the university expanded from around 240 acres to over 700. The institution is about 18-20 months away from reclassifying as a national research university. Retention is still well over 90%+ and graduation rates have increased to 82%. Those are elite numbers for a public university.
As for varsity sports, MBB began to die in the late 90s. Attendance waned, and poor HC hires extended MBB’s death spiral. Football also made a HC hiring mistake (before MM), and didn’t get on a roll until 2004 with the first NC. IMO JMU students didn’t really tune in to FB, or buy into JMU FB, until the Dukes defeated VT and the new stadium’s upper-deck was rising 132’ above Newman Lake.
Remember, the rebuild/expansion to BFS didn’t happen until around 2010, with plenty of second guessing and angst over the delay in seeing the commitment to that project during the later years of LR’s tenure as President. And none of us should forget LR was outspoken that JMU would never reclassify as FBS under his tenure, and he kept his word. By the time LR stepped down, the musical-chairs of FBS G5 conference realignment had stopped. What President Alger inherited was, well, no FBS options. Some people would like to blame President Alger for inaction, but truth be told, he inherited a situation where there’s no room in the Inn for JMU FB, and this is the kicker....for ALL of the other varsity sports in the same conference.
JMU will not move all sports to the Sunbelt. The administration feels it is just not the right fit. That’s not where JMU’s students come from. Going independent poses it own problems, and for the moment that’s also seen as a non-starter.
Once BFS was built there was an element in our fan base who thought JMU wouldn’t be able to consistently fill the new seats, and yet regular season attendance has stayed steady, or grown, as has student attendance. Now, over the last 7 years of continued FB success, there is a growing recognition of JMU FB in the region. It helps feed the pressure/frustration for JMU FB to dump the CAA for a spot in a conference that doesn’t exist. It also impacts enrollment. Would being in the same conference as ODU and Marshall also help enrollment? I think it would, but again making that happen is not exclusively up to JMU.
So, I believe the future of JMU FB is bright. These are exciting times of sustained success, and eventually...I believe it’s inevitable...FB will find a conference home that matches the ambitions of our most rabid fans. When? I can’t give you a timeline. But I can say with some confidence JMU will not make a move that ignores the needs of any other varsity sport played by JMU.
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