(03-26-2021 04:59 AM)ken d Wrote:  After reading a bazillion posts about P5 realignment, and almost as many variations about who is going where, I thought I would try to summarize what the options are.

Nobody is leaving the ACC until 2035 when their GoR expires. No school the conference would release from the GoR adds value to any other P5. The ACC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the PAC because they are too far from the nearest P5 schools. No P5 school that would add value is going to the PAC for the same reason. The PAC stays put.

Nobody is leaving the B1G or the SEC because the money there is too good. Of the schools who could join one of these conferences, Only Texas and Oklahoma would add value.

No other P5 would covet any Big 12 school except Texas and Oklahoma. The B1G and SEC would only add little brothers with great reluctance. No Big 12 school is interested in joining the ACC and no G5 school adds value to the Big 12.

Neither Texas nor Oklahoma would have enough regional rivals in the B1G, and could only schedule one regional rival OOC if they want to have seven home games.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have several suitable regional rivals in the SEC (A&M, Arkansas, LSU and Missouri).

Texas is likely to be reluctant to seem to be following A&M to the SEC, and to give up much of the influence they now enjoy in the Big 12.

Unless Oklahoma is joined by both Texas and Oklahoma State in the SEC, they would probably have to choose which one they would be willing to give up as an annual rivalry game.

Both Texas and Oklahoma would have a much harder time winning a conference title and/or a CFP berth in the SEC than they do where they are.

All these factors suggest that everybody now in a P5 conference stays where they are when the next round of media contracts are renewed unless and until there is some game changing legislation imposed on them from outside.

Did I miss anything?

Money. Oklahoma doesn't have enough pull to bring their little brother along to either the SEC or the B1G. It's OU only, take it or leave scenario. And the money difference is huge, likely over $30m per year and growing from 2025 onward. We are talking over half a billion dollars in less than twenty years. Family ties are easily broken over that.

Texas has a bit of a cushion with the LHN money, six years worth anyway, that will average almost $19m a year (escalator effect) over that span. But it all comes down to whatever the B12 can get in terms of money without OU in 2025.

I don't think Texas and Oklahoma necessarily go together. Oklahoma may wind up in the Big Ten, Texas in the SEC, or the other way around. Either conference getting both would be a huge win. Scheduling is likely to have an additional conference game in the future, as those get larger attendance and allow schools to charge more.

There is a scenario the Big 12 can keep them both. But I don't know if the Little 8 are willing to sacrifice $4.5m per year each to allow Texas and Oklahoma to get $20m more per year to stay and have media revenue closer to the SEC and B1G, so that the price of staying is not so expensive such that they will keep playing their rivals. (Financially this is still the best deal the little-8 can possibly get ... they will make some of it back in the B12N. But politically will egos not let that happen?)