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Game 3: JMU?
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Tank55 Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Game 3: JMU?
(03-28-2021 11:56 PM)Zorch Wrote:  Sounds like Tank55 doesn't want to worry about coaching blunders until one of them costs us a win in a close game (of course, by then it is too late to do anything about it). Sounds like Tribe3455 simply wants to render coaching (blunders and all) irrelevant by out-athleting the opponent.

Until we get to the latter stage (long time coming) then we might as well coach as best as we can. Since the coin toss is the first thing that happens in every game, why not start every game right?

Sounds like you want to just focus on the things you can wrap your head around, no matter how trivial.


(03-29-2021 08:33 AM)Zorch Wrote:  Interesting that no one has posted with a good reason for doing it.

(03-29-2021 08:55 AM)TDenverFan Wrote:  Ultimately, the numbers show a slight edge to deferring in the first half/receiving in the second half, but nothing monumental.

Amazing. I mean, you're acting like this is a straight blunder and not a judgement call where reasonable people can disagree, when the base rate favors the course of action London took. Like I said, this is inane.
(This post was last modified: 03-29-2021 09:38 AM by Tank55.)
03-29-2021 09:34 AM
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ScottyB757 Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Game 3: JMU?
One glaring difference I noticed on the broadcast was how many times Jay and Mike named a JMU player and indicated he was a transfer from a Power Five program, but the only W&M player that warranted that tagline was Cole Blackman. Could it be that JMU’s roster, with so many Power Five transfers, were simply stronger/faster/better football players than the multitude of backups W&M was forced to put out there Saturday?
(This post was last modified: 03-29-2021 09:41 AM by ScottyB757.)
03-29-2021 09:39 AM
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Tank55 Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Game 3: JMU?
I think we're all in agreement on that point.
03-29-2021 09:42 AM
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WMInTheBurg Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Game 3: JMU?
(03-29-2021 08:29 AM)Zorch Wrote:  blah blah blah

https://tribeathletics.com/sports/footba...ondon/3053

His phone number is there. Give him a call and ask him. There's more opportunity than ever before to ask these questions, and you're shouting out your window on a message board. Nobody here can definitively answer these questions. Go to the source.
03-29-2021 09:42 AM
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TDenverFan Online
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Post: #65
RE: Game 3: JMU?
(03-29-2021 09:39 AM)ScottyB757 Wrote:  One glaring difference I noticed on the broadcast was how many times Jay and Mike named a JMU player and indicated he was a transfer from a Power Five program, but the only W&M player that warranted that tagline was Cole Blackman. Could it be that JMU’s roster, with so many Power Five transfers, were simply stronger/faster/better football players than the multitude of backups W&M was forced to put out there Saturday?

Transfers are tough, I don't think the schools leaves spots open for them, so they generally have to qualify academically (I could be wrong on this). I would love to see us add more transfers, but some FCS schools seem to take a lot of transfers who were kicked out/academically ineligible at their old school (not accusing JMU of this), which simply is not going to be our MO.

It's sort of a pain recruiting wise since we only get 1 year of playing from them, but I wonder if we could be more active in getting grad transfers, selling them on a quality degree to finish their football careers with?
03-29-2021 09:55 AM
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Tribe32 Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Game 3: JMU?
As for the transfers, we need to be recruiting at the P5 level to begin with. I think London's staff is doing so. What you hope is that some don't play so much and come back to a source who recruited them out of HS. I'd think that recruiting specifically in Richmond and the 757 will ultimately result in some of this. We seem to be getting grad transfers this way from what I can tell. That direction could be a good niche. We have more players on our roster than you may think also.

Daniel, Blackman, Grimes, Maisus, and Andrew Trainer.
03-29-2021 10:58 AM
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Zorch Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Game 3: JMU?
(03-29-2021 08:55 AM)TDenverFan Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 08:33 AM)Zorch Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 08:28 AM)TDenverFan Wrote:  I'm pretty sure just about every team that wins the coin toss chooses to defer. This seems like a weird thing to care about so much

Oldsters like myself can remember when every (99.9%) winning coin toss resulted in receiving the ball. Then about, what, 10 years ago suddenly everyone was deferring. The only explanation I ever heard was the one I wrote in my first post above -- which, logically, doesn't cut it for me. I actually think that it is just herd mentality and every coach does what every other coach does. Interesting that no one has posted with a good reason for doing it.

That's because the NFL used to only allow teams to kick or receive. The loser of the toss then got to choose to kick/receive to start the second half. So, if Team A wins the toss and chose to kick, team B would get to make the decision to kick/receive in the second half, basically giving team B an extra possession. This rule was changed in 2008, and from then on teams have generally chose to defer.

https://www.waldrn.com/how-the-nfls-2008...-strategy/

Since the rule change, teams that defer win 52% of their games, and teams that won the coin toss and chose to receive win 50.8% of their games.

Then number crunching shows that teams that receive in the first half average about .6 extra points in that half, while the team that receives in the second half score about 1.6 extra points. You also get about a 12% chance of 'stealing' a possession by deferring.

https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/an...-or-defer/

Ultimately, the numbers show a slight edge to deferring in the first half/receiving in the second half, but nothing monumental.

Good info, thanks! My immediate observation is that all that data is from NFL games. There is far, far more parity in the NFL than in college football. Intangibles can make a bigger difference in college ball in trying to offset a disparity in skill levels. For example (quoted from the second link): "Even though the initial analysis points to a larger advantage for teams who receive the second half kickoff, an argument can be made that teams should want to receive the opening kickoff for a chance to jump out to an early lead. Playing with an early lead allows for an offense to stay balanced and not worry about pressing to get back into the game.". That is a major part of why I favor receiving the ball first. I think it is even more important if you are the home team -- get your crowd into it right away, put the opponent on the defensive (literally) right away. I also thought that this (from the second link) was very interesting:

"In fact, in both the first and second halves, the team that gets the ball second is more likely to score on their first possession

Score% and TD% on the 1st and 2nd Drive of Each Half

HALF DRIVE SCORE% TD%
1 1st 40% 26%
1 2nd 42% 27%
2 1st 38% 24%
2 2nd 41% 25%"

Lastly, the first link seemed to support my contention of the coaching herd mentality:

"But yet another possibility is that coin toss strategy doesn't really matter. It doesn't have a significant impact on scoring or who wins the game. Coaches initially favored receiving the opening kickoff after the rule change because that was called "winning" the coin toss in the past, and "winning" is a good word. Then they noticed that Bill Belichick⁠ was doing something different and was still winning games and was also being called "clever", so they wanted to be more like him."

So, there is data that shows that there could be a 1 point difference in deferring (+.6 - 1.6) in the NFL. There are intangibles in college games that could increase or offset that. The factors of playing at home, wanting to score first, wind conditions, or being a large underdog could all play in. At least three of those factors were at play last Saturday against JMU.
03-29-2021 02:23 PM
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Zorch Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Game 3: JMU?
(03-29-2021 09:34 AM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  
(03-28-2021 11:56 PM)Zorch Wrote:  Sounds like Tank55 doesn't want to worry about coaching blunders until one of them costs us a win in a close game (of course, by then it is too late to do anything about it). Sounds like Tribe3455 simply wants to render coaching (blunders and all) irrelevant by out-athleting the opponent.

Until we get to the latter stage (long time coming) then we might as well coach as best as we can. Since the coin toss is the first thing that happens in every game, why not start every game right?

Took me about 5 seconds on google:
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/an...-or-defer/

"Deciding whether to receive or defer the opening kickoff is a decision that can influence the outcome of games on the margins. These margins might not seem like a lot, but in a game of inches, they become the difference between a close win and a loss. Receiving the ball to start the second half results, on average, in an extra point on the scoreboard and a 12% chance of stealing a possession."

Edit: I'm leaving the post up, but TDenverFan beat me by half an hour.

"Took me about 5 seconds on google:"

Good for you! My point was that some posters were shooting me down but not giving any reasons. "Everybody does it that way" or "It is just irrelevant because it was a blowout loss" are not reasons.

BTW, if it only took you five seconds, then how come your post was 39 minutes after TDenverFan's? How did you not see his response first (unless you were working on it at the same time, in which case it took you longer than 5 seconds)?
03-29-2021 02:30 PM
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Zorch Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Game 3: JMU?
(03-29-2021 09:42 AM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 08:29 AM)Zorch Wrote:  blah blah blah

https://tribeathletics.com/sports/footba...ondon/3053

His phone number is there. Give him a call and ask him. There's more opportunity than ever before to ask these questions, and you're shouting out your window on a message board. Nobody here can definitively answer these questions. Go to the source.

"blah blah blah"? Come on, man, that is extremely bad form.
03-29-2021 02:32 PM
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WMInTheBurg Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Game 3: JMU?
(03-29-2021 02:30 PM)Zorch Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 09:34 AM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  
(03-28-2021 11:56 PM)Zorch Wrote:  Sounds like Tank55 doesn't want to worry about coaching blunders until one of them costs us a win in a close game (of course, by then it is too late to do anything about it). Sounds like Tribe3455 simply wants to render coaching (blunders and all) irrelevant by out-athleting the opponent.

Until we get to the latter stage (long time coming) then we might as well coach as best as we can. Since the coin toss is the first thing that happens in every game, why not start every game right?

Took me about 5 seconds on google:
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/an...-or-defer/

"Deciding whether to receive or defer the opening kickoff is a decision that can influence the outcome of games on the margins. These margins might not seem like a lot, but in a game of inches, they become the difference between a close win and a loss. Receiving the ball to start the second half results, on average, in an extra point on the scoreboard and a 12% chance of stealing a possession."

Edit: I'm leaving the post up, but TDenverFan beat me by half an hour.

"Took me about 5 seconds on google:"

Good for you! My point was that some posters were shooting me down but not giving any reasons. "Everybody does it that way" or "It is just irrelevant because it was a blowout loss" are not reasons.

BTW, if it only took you five seconds, then how come your post was 39 minutes after TDenverFan's? How did you not see his response first (unless you were working on it at the same time, in which case it took you longer than 5 seconds)?

I didn't think it would have legs, and here we are still talking about it. When it became apparent that the nonsense would progress, I spent 5 seconds.

My point was that you were criticizing coaches (for whom making football decisions is their job) without having information that would suggest they were making the wrong choice. I understand all the terrible "conventional wisdom" reasons that are usually given for things that just haven't been explored, but instead of seeing whether this was one of them, you yelled a lot on a message board and called for the coach's job. Tribester has a trademark on that move, nobody else is allowed.
03-29-2021 02:48 PM
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WMInTheBurg Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Game 3: JMU?
(03-29-2021 02:32 PM)Zorch Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 09:42 AM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 08:29 AM)Zorch Wrote:  blah blah blah

https://tribeathletics.com/sports/footba...ondon/3053

His phone number is there. Give him a call and ask him. There's more opportunity than ever before to ask these questions, and you're shouting out your window on a message board. Nobody here can definitively answer these questions. Go to the source.

"blah blah blah"? Come on, man, that is extremely bad form.

You yelled about judgment calls, people offered their answers, you claimed those answers were invalid for arbitrary reasons. I think "blah blah blah" covers it. If you want your post to be seen as more than just screaming nonsense, you gotta be willing to engage. Otherwise people start ignoring you.

In this case, you yelled about things for a couple of days before other people bothered to do the work for you because they were tired of listening. I'm sure there will be a reply that gives you the last word. I'm ceding it. There's no value in making this go on longer.
03-29-2021 02:56 PM
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JMU2004 Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Game 3: JMU?
JMU has 9 transfers total, 5 from P5. The ones who played a significant role were Bracey (WR from Duke), Davis (Rover from Ohio St), Cholewa (DT from UCF), and Hamilton (RB from UCF).
03-29-2021 04:08 PM
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Tribal Online
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Post: #73
RE: Game 3: JMU?
(03-29-2021 02:56 PM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 02:32 PM)Zorch Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 09:42 AM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 08:29 AM)Zorch Wrote:  blah blah blah

https://tribeathletics.com/sports/footba...ondon/3053

His phone number is there. Give him a call and ask him. There's more opportunity than ever before to ask these questions, and you're shouting out your window on a message board. Nobody here can definitively answer these questions. Go to the source.

"blah blah blah"? Come on, man, that is extremely bad form.

You yelled about judgment calls, people offered their answers, you claimed those answers were invalid for arbitrary reasons. I think "blah blah blah" covers it. If you want your post to be seen as more than just screaming nonsense, you gotta be willing to engage. Otherwise people start ignoring you.

In this case, you yelled about things for a couple of days before other people bothered to do the work for you because they were tired of listening. I'm sure there will be a reply that gives you the last word. I'm ceding it. There's no value in making this go on longer.
Doesn't that just about sum up everything wrong in our world today? Actually talking stuff through, keeping an open mind, and rejecting a balance of opinions is now viewed as a sign of weakness. Such a shame.

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03-29-2021 04:33 PM
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Zorch Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Game 3: JMU?
(03-29-2021 02:48 PM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 02:30 PM)Zorch Wrote:  
(03-29-2021 09:34 AM)WMInTheBurg Wrote:  
(03-28-2021 11:56 PM)Zorch Wrote:  Sounds like Tank55 doesn't want to worry about coaching blunders until one of them costs us a win in a close game (of course, by then it is too late to do anything about it). Sounds like Tribe3455 simply wants to render coaching (blunders and all) irrelevant by out-athleting the opponent.

Until we get to the latter stage (long time coming) then we might as well coach as best as we can. Since the coin toss is the first thing that happens in every game, why not start every game right?

Took me about 5 seconds on google:
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/an...-or-defer/

"Deciding whether to receive or defer the opening kickoff is a decision that can influence the outcome of games on the margins. These margins might not seem like a lot, but in a game of inches, they become the difference between a close win and a loss. Receiving the ball to start the second half results, on average, in an extra point on the scoreboard and a 12% chance of stealing a possession."

Edit: I'm leaving the post up, but TDenverFan beat me by half an hour.

"Took me about 5 seconds on google:"

Good for you! My point was that some posters were shooting me down but not giving any reasons. "Everybody does it that way" or "It is just irrelevant because it was a blowout loss" are not reasons.

BTW, if it only took you five seconds, then how come your post was 39 minutes after TDenverFan's? How did you not see his response first (unless you were working on it at the same time, in which case it took you longer than 5 seconds)?

I didn't think it would have legs, and here we are still talking about it. When it became apparent that the nonsense would progress, I spent 5 seconds.

My point was that you were criticizing coaches (for whom making football decisions is their job) without having information that would suggest they were making the wrong choice. I understand all the terrible "conventional wisdom" reasons that are usually given for things that just haven't been explored, but instead of seeing whether this was one of them, you yelled a lot on a message board and called for the coach's job. Tribester has a trademark on that move, nobody else is allowed.

Your response is absolute bulls**t. First off, show me anywhere in any post where I called for the coach's job. I had a post above that outlined his shortcomings in clock management, penalties, etc but I never said he should be fired. Second, my original email laid out several reasons to suggest that they were making the wrong choice -- so you can't say I did so "without having information". You actually should have said that I didn't have information to suggest that they were making the right choice. However, as my emails explained, my opinion is that the reasons on the one side outweighed the reasons on the other. Lastly, that crap about it being the coach's job (i e "they know so much more than we do") -- I guess that gets thrown out the window as soon as dozens of these bozo coaches get fired every year?
03-29-2021 11:15 PM
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bubbadog57 Offline
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Post: #75
RE: Game 3: JMU?
This "discussion" has reached rock bottom. The whole argument isn't worth a kettle of fish.

Perhaps the answer is to lose every coin toss...then nobody can say anything.
03-30-2021 05:25 AM
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HyperDuke Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Game 3: JMU?
Listen, any coach that doesn’t choose to receive after winning the coin toss is an idiot because it’s not my preferred decision!
03-30-2021 06:15 AM
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