D1 off-seasons are always in a great deal of Flux due to transfers. This off season especially with granted extra eligibility and, I'd imagine, very lenient hardship transfers.
If nothing changes, we are looking at losing Loewe and topping off the roster with the 3 freshmen for our 13 scholarship limit. Pretty normal and straight forward. From there it gets hard to calculate. If Luke and the staff are in agreement, he could return as a 14th scholarship. Not impossible, but I'm not seeing it. Much more probable is to lose some guys to transfer and we gain some transfers. Hopefully these transfers aren't part of the core in what Dane is trying to build. The obvious odd man out is Thornton Scott who was out most of the season. I could also see any number of last years, last-minute scramble freshmen class move on. They moved more and more out of the rotation as the year progressed. This includes Stone, Hermanovskis, and Ayesa. The coaches have been flirting with experienced transfer guards (Caraher & Butler) with scoring ability which could slide into any of those big guard slots. The coaches have also been interested in high school bigs to add to the front court. It really wouldn't surprise to see us lose 2 to 3 guys from this year's roster and we add big man depth and a transfer guard with scoring ability. Bringing back Luke would be the cherry on top of that, but I'm not seeing it. Devastating to what we are doing would be to lose any of our key contributors this season.

Core Scholarship guys
1- Milkereit
2- Covington
3- Blair
4- Kochera
5- Harvey
6- Wight
7- Rice
8- Lewis
9- Hatton

Possible Transfer Candidates
10- Scott
11- Stone
12- Hermanovskis
13- Ayesa
Possible Extra Year
14- Loewe

Just remember that getting a great education may be more important than playing time for some of the players on your transfer candidates list.

I think that in order of likelihood of transferring out we have:

1. Scott (or just quitting basketball?)
2. Ayesa
3. Hermanovskis
4. Stone
******
5. Kochera
6. Someone else?

The top 4 are just really based on the balance of playing time vs. opportunities elsewhere. Ayeaa, in particular, seems to have something to offer another mid-major, but doesn't seem to be able to crack the roster here - and we're getting more competition coming in.

I think there's a big space between 4 and 5, but of the freshmen I think Kochera is the most likely simply because of his performance, not because I think he wants to leave (my gut tells me he doesn't). There are no other obvious transfers to me. Of course, anyone could make any number of decisions based on their personal situations. But I don't think anyone has performed well enough to "upgrade" besides Kochera and the others seem to have clear roles.

I'd love, love, LOVE it if Loewe stayed. From a basketball perspective, I think there's a lot good for him staying. If he wants to do grad school anyways and W&M has what he wants, I can see a lot of reasons for him to stay. If he wants to move to the working world or has say opportunities in Europe to play basketball that he wants to start on, I think there's a very logical chance he could stay.

If he stays, 2021-2022 has a much better outlook than if he doesn't, but that's really not a bold statement to make.

heh - mrj didn't initially have his ranked list, funny that it differs from mine a fair amount.

(03-10-2021 02:28 PM)wml33t Wrote:  heh - mrj didn't initially have his ranked list, funny that it differs from mine a fair amount.

I really was making more of a list than I was a ranking. If I'm ranking the possibility of transfer for the bench guys, it would go:
1- Scott - obvious reasons
2- Stone - emergence of a healthier Milkereit and the addition of Lewis moves him down the depth charts. May want more opportunities closer to home.
3- Ayesa- loves W&M, but see above. Lack of defense hurts his ability to stay on the floor.
4- Hermanovskis- Rainers ability to fill in at the 1 or 2 gives him more opportunity to play, but he is athletically likely to get lost in the shuffle with the influx of new players.

(03-10-2021 02:24 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  Just remember that getting a great education may be more important than playing time for some of the players on your transfer candidates list.

You are absolutely right. And I think that some could be happy just to get a degree. I'm not saying this is what our coaches are doing, but it's not uncommon for coaches to influence a player to transfer without asking them to transfer. This is done by being buried in the depth chart and recruited over. This is the nice way to do it. More cutthroat schools probably would be more direct.

(03-10-2021 03:16 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  

(03-10-2021 02:24 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  Just remember that getting a great education may be more important than playing time for some of the players on your transfer candidates list.

You are absolutely right. And I think that some could be happy just to get a degree. I'm not saying this is what our coaches are doing, but it's not uncommon for coaches to influence a player to transfer without asking them to transfer. This is done by being buried in the depth chart and recruited over. This is the nice way to do it. More cutthroat schools probably would be more direct.

I completely agree.

I would expect 2 open scholarships might open up.

If so, one for a grad transfer and another to use for a second tall player

(03-11-2021 03:14 PM)wmmii Wrote:  I would expect 2 open scholarships might open up.

If so, one for a grad transfer and another to use for a second tall player

That is what I'm envisioning if the tea leaves are correct. Plus, the door is still open for Luke as far fetched as it seems.

(03-11-2021 03:26 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  

(03-11-2021 03:14 PM)wmmii Wrote:  I would expect 2 open scholarships might open up.

If so, one for a grad transfer and another to use for a second tall player

That is what I'm envisioning if the tea leaves are correct. Plus, the door is still open for Luke as far fetched as it seems.

I think that the opportunity that presents itself to Luke is one that is hardly cut and dried and is one that comes out of nowhere and that he has not had the opportunity to prepare for emotionally. It's not like he redshirted his first year, knew that he was going to graduate in four years, and had the chance over a four year period to plan for the possibility of going to school for a fifth year. Nor is he like Justin, who had a plan to graduate in three years, and knew that he wanted to parlay his 4th year of eligibility into the start of a graduate degree.

Lest any alum on these boards has forgotten, W&M is a darn hard school that can wear you down even if you are just a normal student, let alone a scholarship athlete who also had to deal with the Covid world for the last 3 semesters of his undergraduate life. The thought of contemplating another year of college, even if it means having an opportunity the play the game you love another year with teammates and coaches who he appears to really like, might be a decision not easily made.

I also believe that I read that Luke is a kinesiology and health sciences major. I seem to recall a number of years ago when Jack Whitman graduated and decided not to return for his redshirt Senior year, some on here suggested that W&M did not, at that time, offer a natural graduate studies plan for someone with that major. And its not like working on a graduate degree in the Mason School of Business is for everyone.

I have absolutely nothing to base this on, but my gut tells me that the decision that Luke will ultimately wrestle with is whether he wants to have one more season with his teammates or move on to the next chapter of his life that does not involve college. Whatever he decides, I wish him nothing but the best.

Find some alumni with bass fishing boats that live in the Chickahominy that want to do fishing and invite Luke to join them.

Giving Luke a steady diet of bass fishing in some of the best fishing water will help him start working on his next career after he helps us dance in 2022!

Luke has shown enough to get a decent pro contract abroad IMO.

In my Instagram snooping, I noticed Connor is in Dallas with Jake. Both working out with Jake's trainer. Love the drive to get better

(03-16-2021 01:45 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  In my Instagram snooping, I noticed Connor is in Dallas with Jake. Both working out with Jake's trainer. Love the drive to get better

Something wrong with Jake’s right hand?

(03-11-2021 05:39 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  Luke has shown enough to get a decent pro contract abroad IMO.

Not sure that is the glide path he is seeking...…..

(03-16-2021 01:45 PM)mrjoolius Wrote:  In my Instagram snooping, I noticed Connor is in Dallas with Jake. Both working out with Jake's trainer. Love the drive to get better

Can someone check on Simba to see if they’re ok?

So with Luke leaving we don't really have a point guard. The only person who would be viable is Scott, and we don't know his status. So, Mr. Rice it's your job to take next year. We're going to be really, really young next year, but hopefully with a good core assuming our recruits can play serious minutes.

(03-24-2021 08:58 AM)Tribe32 Wrote:  So with Luke leaving we don't really have a point guard. The only person who would be viable is Scott, and we don't know his status. So, Mr. Rice it's your job to take next year. We're going to be really, really young next year, but hopefully with a good core assuming our recruits can play serious minutes.

I think that Yuri played the point more often than Luke did this year.

Rainers is definitely not a starter, but should be able to be an adequate backup if the freshmen next year have freshmen games.