(03-01-2021 10:12 PM)pesik Wrote: All at-large assures that Memphis, SMU, and Wichita will have the option of a post season
It certainly helps and it seems quite likely, but it doesn't guarantee that all three teams will all play in the NCAA or NIT, even if they were to stay healthy enough and wouldn't have to forfeit any tournament games.
Losses in their remaining conference games could knock one or two of them out of contention, and it's not clear if the selection committee would invite 5 AAC teams to play in the NCAA/NIT if, for example, Tulsa were to win the conference tournament.
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This might be the NIT field if things go according to the projections of bracketmatrix.com (caveat: W-L records will change over the next two weeks, and things never go exactly according to the bracketmatrix.com projections).
SIXTEEN "OTHER AT-LARGES" (NOT CURRENTLY NCAA SEEDS):
Expect the bracketmatrix.com seedings to shift considerably when they are revised.
Possible changes: It appears that Boise St. and Seton Hall may end up in the NIT, rather than in the NCAA, and Minnesota (13-13) may not make it into the NIT.
.....TEAM......................CONFERENCE.........AVERAGE SEED ("VOTES")
(1) Michigan St. (14-10).Big Ten...................11.59 (59) NET:
71(?)
(1) Saint Louis (13-5)......Atlantic 10.................11.93 (14) NET:
42
(1) Indiana..(
12-13(?)).......Big Ten...................11.50 (10) NET: 59
(1)
SMU^(11-4)...............American...................11.11 (9) NET: 54
(2) Utah St. (15-7)........Mountain West...............11.38 (8) NET:
47
(2) Richmond (12-7).........Atlantic 10.................11.50 (8) NET: 62
(2) Duke....(11-10(?)).............ACC......................11.75 (8) NET: 57
(2) Stanford (14-11(?))......Pacific-12..................11.50 (6) NET: 61
(3) Louisiana Tech (
19-6).......CUSA.....................11.67 (6) NET:
73(?)
(3)
Memphis^(15-6)..........American...................11.75 (4) NET: 56
(3) Marshall (13-6)...............CUSA.....................11.33 (3) NET:
76*(?)
(3) Syracuse (15-8)...............ACC......................11.33 (3) NET: 55*
(4) St. Mary's (CA) (13-8)..West Coast.................10.50 (2) NET: 68*
(4) Kentucky(
8-14(?))............SEC........................12.00 (1) NET: 65*
(4) Minnesota(
13-13(?)).......Big Ten.....................12.00 (1) NET: 70*
(4) Mississippi (13-10(?)).......SEC........................12.00 (1) NET: 60*
*These teams could be knocked out of the NIT field if there are enough dark horse/upset wins in conference tournament championship games (e.g., if enough teams such as Tulsa or Dayton were to win their conference tournaments).
--Minnesota (NET=70) would probably be the first to go in this scenario, if there is just one dark/horse upset winner in a conf. championship game. Mississipi or Kentucky might be next.
^Memphis, SMU, and Wichita State are all ranked higher in the Massey Composite rankings (
Memphis (#47),
SMU (#49), and
Wichita State (#53).
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Other Possible NIT teams:
Teams that could be knocked out of NCAA into the NIT if there are enough upset conf tourney champs, or if a dark horse wins their own conference tourney:
NET
40 Georgia Tech (13-8(?); if there are enough upset conf. tournament champs, or if a dark horse wins the ACC tourney))
41 Drake (
22-3) (if there are enough upset conf. tournament champs, or if a dark horse wins the MVC tourney)
43 Boise St (17-7) (if they don't play well in the MWC tourney)
39 Colorado St (15-4; if there are enough upset conf. tournament champs, or if a dark horse wins the MVC tourney)
53 Xavier (13-6; if there are enough upset conf. tournament champs, or if a dark horse teams wins the BEC tourney)
67 Wichita State (if there are enough upset conf. tournament champs, or if a dark horse team wins the AAC tourney)
52 Seton Hall (13-11(?); if they don't win BEC tourney games)
Regular season champs that could be knocked out of the NCAA if they don't win their conference tournaments, but could qualify for NIT based on their NET):
50 UCSB (15-4) (if they don't win Big West tourney)
61 North Texas (12-7) (if they don't win CUSA tourney)
63 Toledo (19-7) (if they don't win MAC tourney)
64 Winthrop (
20-1) (if they don't win conf. tourney)
77 WKU (16-5) (if they don't win conf. tourney)
Teams that might be able to qualify for NIT based mainly on their NET:
65 St. Mary's (13-8)
70 Auburn (12-14)
71 Davidson (11-7)
74 St. John's (15-10)
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HIGH BUBBLE TEAMS (BRACKETMATRIX.COM):
SEED.TEAM............CONFERENCE........AVERAGE SEED ("VOTES")
10 Louisville (13-5)...........ACC.....................9.49 (131) NET: 49
10 UNC (15-9)..................ACC.....................9.83 (133) NET: 44
10 UConn (12-6)............Big East.................10.20 (131) NET: 34
10 St. Bona (13-4)........Atlantic 10...............10.28 (134) NET:
32
11 VCU (17-6).............Atlantic 10...............10.63 (132) NET: 36
11 Boise St (17-6).....Mountain West...........10.79 (133) NET: 43
11 Xavier (13-5)............Big East.................10.76 (128) NET: 53*
11 CSU (15-4)...........Mountain West............11.34 (116) NET: 39*
12 Drake (
22-3).....Missouri Valley.........11.42 (112) NET: 41**
12 Georgia Tech (13-8)......ACC.....................11.41 (116) NET: 40**
12 WSU^(11-4)...American...............11.52 (108) NET:
66**(?)
12 SetonH.(
13-11(?))..Big East.................11.55 (94) NET: 52*
*These teams could be knocked out of the NCAA field (and into the NIT) if there are enough dark horse/upset wins (e.g., if Tulsa or Cincy were to win the AAC Tournament championship)
**Teams that receive a 12 seed at bracketmatrix.com heading into Selection Sunday - - and some that receive an 11 seed - - have frequently ended up in the NIT, instead.
--Seton Hall would be the first to go in this scenario, if there is just one dark/horse upset winner in a conf. championship game. WSU would be next.
--For Xavier to be knocked out of the NCAA, according to this day's bracket matrix, there would have to be five "dark horse/upset" wins.
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Other potential NCAA teams (possible winners of conference tourneys):
(based on NET, record, or conference standings)
NET....Team
61....N. Texas (12-7; #3 in CUSA) (9 votes in bracket matrix)
74....Furman (13-8) (34 votes in bracket matrix)
75....NC State (13-9; Q1/Q2: 3-8)
79....Providence (12-11; Q1/Q2: 9-10)
80....Mississippi St. (13-12; Q1/Q2: 7-10)
84....Navy (
15-2) (42 votes in bracket matrix)
85....Buffalo (11-7; #4 in MAC)
86....Dayton (13-8) (
Q1/Q2: 6-4)
93....Utah (10-11) (#7 in PAC-12; based mainly on NET)
94....Missouri State (14-6; based mainly on NET)
94....Kent St. (14-6; #2 in MAC)
97....UAB (19-6; #5 in CUSA)
99....Vermont (10-4 (54 votes in bracket matrix)
107 .Nevada (13-9; #5 in MWC)
108 .Oregon St. (12-11) (#7 in PAC-12; Q1/Q2: 12-10)
117 .
Tulsa (9-10; #6 in AAC; Q1/Q2: 4-4)
121 .
Cincy (9-9; #5 in AAC; won 4 of last 6 games)
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PROJECTED TO RECEIVE NCAA 2021 AUTO-BIDS AS CONF. CHAMPIONS:
12 WKU NET: 78
12 Toledo NET: 56
13 Colgate NET:
9
13 Winthrop NET: 66
13 Belmont NET: 81
13 UCSB NET: 51
14 Wright St. NET: 62
14 Liberty NET: 82
14 UNC-Greensboro NET: 91
14 Abiline-Chr. NET: 87
15 S. Dakota St. NET: 122
15 E. Washington NET: 113
15 Siena NET: 128
15 UMBC NET: 129
16 Grand Canyon NET: 136
16 James Madison NET: 130
16 TX St. NET: 146
16 Bryant NET: 130
16 Prairie View NET: 168
16 N. Carolina A&T NET: 284
.
NOTE:
If things go as predicted by bracketmatrix.com on the date of this post:
The PAC-10 would have 4 NCAA and 1 NIT teams (total: 5).
The Big East would have 5 NCAA and 0 NIT teams (total: 5).
The MWC would have 3 NCAA and 1 NIT teams (total: 4).
The Atlantic 10 would have 2 NCAA and 2 NIT teams (total: 4).
The AAC would have 2 NCAA and 2 NIT teams (total: 4).
The WCC would have 2 NCAA and 1 NIT teams (total: 3).
The MVC would have 1 NCAA and 1 NIT teams (total: 2).
The CUSA would have 1 NCAA and 1 NIT teams (total: 2).
The other 4 "A5" conferences would have 8+ NCAA or NIT teams.
All other conferences would have only 1 NCAA or NIT team.