RE: THE WILDCARD ...
yes, all of them including Ball St and maybe even Miami.
Toledo has looked the most dominant for a stretch, but they have hit a plateau lately as a few other teams are improving and getting a better read on Toledo's schemes. If the rockets get to full strength (starting center AJ Edu and backup pg Jamere Hill are question marks for March returns from injury) the Rockets are my bet (well, it's my team) but if they continue to be limited to a 7 man rotation they may tire and fade. The most shooters in the league so usually able to overcome a key guy having an off night scoring wise.
I don't think Akron wins the tourney even though they have the deepest roster because they have limited shooters. They need some combo LCJ going off and at least one of their inconsistent scoring wings to make shots to beat good teams. Maybe, LCJ can carry them, but I think over 3 straight games and some tired legs they will have a game where they struggle to score enough.
Ohio has the best balance and Preston is an ideal march ball manager. You might call them the favorite, really. However, like akron their wing scoring is inconsistent and you wonder if they can survive a bad shooting night with enough from Preston and post play. maybe, but if their wings are off and they catch a toledo or bg team on a hot night it will be tough.
Kent is not gonna win it without nuga. just not enough perimeter offense. however, they could easily win a game or two over anyone else in the field.
I'd put ball st in that category. dangerous but a little more limited than other teams. that said, jarron coleman missed a lot of games early and if he peaks in march that could make them a different team.
bg is a mystery. started off a little questionable, found their groove, then really struggled but are now playing better. certainly capable of running the table in the tourney. you do have 2 freshman in key roles and minimal post play so there are weaknesses to exploit for other coaches. like toledo with 2 senior stars you'd expect them to show up in cleveland.
miami plays hard and has a couple guards who can heat up. i don't see them as a real threat to win it, but could easily beat you if you don't bring it in quarterfinals.
buffalo is not my favorite but I wouldn't write them off. in a league with marreon jackson, LCJ and Preston i don't see rondo segu winning enough battles at the most important march position to get it done. segu has some game but he's a step below those 3 and will likely need to get by 2 of them to win the tourney. meanwhile, they got good athletic players elsewhere but graves has been inefficient (can he heat up?) and williams and mballa are guys who can beat you but are more scorers than shooters. plus, buffalo's d has not been reliable. do they have the pieces, yeah, do they add up-with oats, yeah, with whitesell, meh, possibly???
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