Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
Author Message
Bookmark and Share
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 37,913
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 7737
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #1
A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
Here is a revealing look at what each conference's media payouts would be if they were apportioned on the basis of all factors that go into the valuation of a schools athletic programs as per the Wall Street Journals assessment of those values.

Each of the P5 schools valuations were divided by that conferences total valuation to come up with a percentage of the total value that each school represents. Then the media revenue from the 2018-9 season was divided by that percentage to reveal what each school might have made if conference media contracts were not share and share alike.

I want you to pay close attention to the wide variations from top to bottom and in some cases long held beliefs of values in realignment might be shattered. Take each conference unto itself and try not to make cross comparisons as each has different percentages valid only within that conference. That said it should give you a strong indication of how solid conferences are based upon how tight the groupings are or are not. The PAC for instance is relatively compact in the difference between first and last, as is the ACC. The Big 10 is strong at the top and weak at the bottom. The ACC's laggards are rather obvious and each conference's drag on revenue is clearly revealed. But perhaps no conference is more top heavy with a greater divide than the Big 12.

It is also interesting to note how many of the programs that realigned in 2012 because of market size actually have little real value when branding, market reach, and other factors are considered.



SEC
Total Value of Media Contract $651,000,000 / Per School Payout: $46.5 million
Total WSJ valuation of the Conference $7,491,918,011

Alabama / 13.5% of Conference Value / $87,885,000 value of media share
Georgia / 11.9% of Conference Value / $77,469,000 value of media share
Auburn / 11.6% of Conference Value / $75,516,000 value of media share
Louisiana St./ 11.4% of Conference Value / $74,214,000 value of media share
Tennessee / 9.7% of Conference Value / $63,147,000 value of media share
Florida / 8.5% of Conference Value / $55,335,000 value of media share
Texas A&M / 7.2% of Conference Value / $46,872,000 value of media share
Arkansas/ 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
South Carolina / 6.2% of Conference Value / $40,362,000 value of media share
Mississippi / 4.6% of Conference Value / $29,946,000 value of media share
Kentucky / 3.6% of Conference Value / $23,436,000 value of media share
Mississippi St./ 3.0% of Conference Value / $19,530,000 value of media share
Missouri / 1.6% of Conference Value / $10,416,000 value of media share
Vanderbilt / 1.1% of Conference Value / $7,161,000 value of media share


Big 10
Total Value of Media Contract $784,000,000 / Per School Payout: 56 Million
Total WSJ valuation of the Conference $5,389,814,258

Ohio State / 19.5% of Conference Value / $152,880,000 value of media share
Michigan / 17.2% of Conference Value / $134,848,000 value of media share
Penn State / 9.6% of Conference Value / $75,264,000 value of media share
Wisconsin / 8.8% of Conference Value / $68,992,000 value of media share
Nebraska / 8.8% of Conference Value / $68,992,000 value of media share
Iowa / 8.5% of Conference Value / $66,640,000 value of media share
Michigan St./ 6.6% of Conference Value / $51,744,000 value of media share
Minnesota / 5.0% of Conference Value / $39,200,000 value of media share
Indiana / 3.4% of Conference Value / $26,656,000 value of media share
Northwestern / 3.3% of Conference Value / $25,872,000 value of media share
Illinois / 2.9% of Conference Value / $22,736,000 value of media share
Maryland / 2.8% of Conference Value / $21,952,000 value of media share
Purdue / 2.5% of Conference Value / $19,600,000 value of media share
Rutgers / 1.2% of Conference Value / $9,408,000 value of media share


Big 12
Total Value of Media Contract $360,000,000 / Per School Payout: 36 Million
Total WSJ Valuation of the Conference $3,537,219,087

Texas / 31.3% of Conference Value / $112,680,000 value of media share (no T3)
Oklahoma / 25.0% of Conference Value / $90,000,000 value of media share (no T3)
Kansas St. / 7.8% of Conference Value / $28,080,000 value of media share
Oklahoma St. / 7.7% of Conference Value / $27,720,000 value of media share
Texas Tech / 6.9% of Conference Value / $24,840,000 value of media share
Kansas / 5.9% of Conference Value / $21,240,000 value of media share
T.C.U. / 5.4% of Conference Value / $19,440,000 value of media share
Iowa St. / 5.5% of Conference Value / $19,080,000 value of media share
Baylor / 3.0% of Conference Value / $10,800,000 value of media share
West Virginia / 1.7% of Conference Value / $6,120,000 value of media share


ACC
Total Value of Media Contract $450,800,000 / Per School Payout: 32.2 Million
Total WSJ Valuation of the Conference $2,378,969,826

Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share
Virginia / 5.7% of Conference Value / $25,695,600 value of media share
Syracuse / 5.1% of Conference Value / $22,990,800 value of media share
Pittsburgh / 4.8% of Conference Value / $21,638,400 value of media share
Boston College / 3.4% of Conference Value / $15,327,200 value of media share
Wake Forest / 3.2% of Conference Value / $14,425,600 value of media share
Duke / 2.8% of Conference Value / $12,622,400 value of media share
* Notre Dame's value is 5th nationally so if a full member of the ACC their % of Conference value would be 27.7% and would dwarf the rest of the ACC.


PAC 12
Total Value of Media Contract $386,400,000 / Per School Payout: 32.2 Million
Total WSJ Valuation of the Conference $3,008,222,679

Washington / 14.7% of Conference Value / $56,800,800 value of media share
Oregon / 11.6% of Conference Value / $44,822,500 value of media share
U.S.C. / 10.8% of Conference Value / $41,731,200 value of media share
U.C.L.A. / 10.0% of Conference Value / $38,640,000 value of media share
Arizona St. / 10.0% of Conference Value / $38,640,000 value of media share
Stanford / 7.7% of Conference Value / $29,752,800 value of media share
Utah / 7.1% of Conference Value / $27,434,400 value of media share
Colorado / 6.9% of Conference Value / $26,661,600 value of media share
California / 6.6% of Conference Value / $25,502,400 value of media share
Arizona / 5.5% of Conference Value / $21,252,000 value of media share
Washington St. / 4.7% of Conference Value / $18,160,800 value of media share
Oregon St. / 4.2% of Conference Value / $16,228,800 value of media share
(This post was last modified: 04-22-2021 06:04 PM by JRsec.)
02-09-2021 01:07 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


murrdcu Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,969
Joined: Aug 2014
Reputation: 144
I Root For: Arkansas
Location:
Post: #2
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
Having a hard time fathoming why Mizzou can’t pull in $20M media value and why WVU and Rutgers are below $10M.
02-09-2021 09:47 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 37,913
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 7737
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #3
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-09-2021 09:47 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  Having a hard time fathoming why Mizzou can’t pull in $20M media value and why WVU and Rutgers are below $10M.

It's not hard at all when you stop and think about it. We are dividing the media revenue by the % of market value each school represents. In the Big 12 9 of the schools have history with one another meaning regional interest. One does not, WVU. I would venture to say that WVU's value would go way up in the Old Big East or even the ACC. But in the Big 12 nobody sees them as anything but an outlier and a mediocre one at that. Texas and Oklahoma are the only national draws in football.

With Rutgers nobody in the Big 10 wants to see those games, most resent them being in the conference and their sports programs have not been competitive for some time and New Jersey is a pro sports market.

With Missouri you have the problem of their fans buying into the SEC more than the other way around (which still has problems). Again they aren't a national brand and they are playing no school from the old Big 8 and only 1 from the Big 12. Interest drives value production as does branding. All 3 are to some extent average to poor products that no longer have regional interest in their schedules. Missouri at least neighbors some SEC states and can grow some in market reach. Rutgers over time may be able to as well. West Virginia is just plain screwed as far as developing regional interest.
02-09-2021 02:24 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ICThawk Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 195
Joined: Jun 2018
Reputation: 54
I Root For: KU
Location:
Post: #4
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
I didn't check your numbers but is Kansas State really worth more than KU?
02-09-2021 11:28 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 37,913
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 7737
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #5
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-09-2021 11:28 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  I didn't check your numbers but is Kansas State really worth more than KU?

It is a football valuation by the WSJ and while Kansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky roughly equal their football values in hoops that only adds 20 percent more to the football totals. So in actuality Kansas gains about 15% on KState which is enough to put you on par with the Wildcats but does not substantially change your overall position. Being without question the better academic addition and the state's flagship, not to mention Missouri's rival all are heavily in your favor as a travel companion for either OU or UT. It would be enough to jump you over TTU and possibly OSU which is enough distance to still make you the 3rd best choice. So not enough to worry about but certainly a good reason to continue to try to redevelop some semblance of competitiveness in football, as doing that absolutely makes you #3 in all statistical data for the Big 12 and quite frankly that is the best you can do. Texas and Oklahoma are absolutely unassailable.

That said calculating basketball values for each team with it making practically no difference in standing for any of the schools but the top basketball schools just didn't seem worth the time when you can just add 20% onto your value. When I looked at Kansas's basketball value it was equal to your football value it's just that it earns much less in media revenue, so since your basketball value was already included in your media rights deal it wouldn't vary by % that much than the data I posted.
02-10-2021 12:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ICThawk Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 195
Joined: Jun 2018
Reputation: 54
I Root For: KU
Location:
Post: #6
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-10-2021 12:32 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-09-2021 11:28 PM)ICThawk Wrote:  I didn't check your numbers but is Kansas State really worth more than KU?

It is a football valuation by the WSJ and while Kansas, North Carolina, and Kentucky roughly equal their football values in hoops that only adds 20 percent more to the football totals. So in actuality Kansas gains about 15% on KState which is enough to put you on par with the Wildcats but does not substantially change your overall position. Being without question the better academic addition and the state's flagship, not to mention Missouri's rival all are heavily in your favor as a travel companion for either OU or UT. It would be enough to jump you over TTU and possibly OSU which is enough distance to still make you the 3rd best choice. So not enough to worry about but certainly a good reason to continue to try to redevelop some semblance of competitiveness in football, as doing that absolutely makes you #3 in all statistical data for the Big 12 and quite frankly that is the best you can do. Texas and Oklahoma are absolutely unassailable.

That said calculating basketball values for each team with it making practically no difference in standing for any of the schools but the top basketball schools just didn't seem worth the time when you can just add 20% onto your value. When I looked at Kansas's basketball value it was equal to your football value it's just that it earns much less in media revenue, so since your basketball value was already included in your media rights deal it wouldn't vary by % that much than the data I posted.

Thanks for the clarification. I didn't realize the WSJ valuation was only on football. Certainly KSU has been much better in that than KU for "several" years!!
02-10-2021 01:35 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Fighting Muskie Offline
Senior Chief Realignmentologist
*

Posts: 11,797
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 789
I Root For: Ohio St, UC,MAC
Location: Biden Cesspool
Post: #7
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
Missouri seems extremely low—there’s no way that Kansas and Iowa St are double the value and Oklahoma St and Kansas St triple that of the Tigers.
02-10-2021 08:39 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 37,913
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 7737
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #8
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-10-2021 08:39 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Missouri seems extremely low—there’s no way that Kansas and Iowa St are double the value and Oklahoma St and Kansas St triple that of the Tigers.

You can't compare conferences. The totals represent what percentage of value that school is to their conferences total media package if the WSJ valuations are applied.

West Virginia's issue is that they no longer hold Big East interest and they haven't generated much interest among the Big 12's traditional viewers. Ditto for Missouri in the SEC. The Tigers are making progress but it will take time for them to get into playing neighbors Arkansas and Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Neither plays old rivals either which also hurts interest. Their values however are not comparable to each other but only to the other schools of their conference since each conference has a different contracted media payout.
02-11-2021 12:26 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Fighting Muskie Offline
Senior Chief Realignmentologist
*

Posts: 11,797
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 789
I Root For: Ohio St, UC,MAC
Location: Biden Cesspool
Post: #9
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
So all values are relative to their own conferences then? A school could be worth more (or less) if they moved elsewhere?
02-11-2021 09:37 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Fighting Muskie Offline
Senior Chief Realignmentologist
*

Posts: 11,797
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 789
I Root For: Ohio St, UC,MAC
Location: Biden Cesspool
Post: #10
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
And hypothetically, if Texas and Oklahoma left the Big 12 and two replacements of similar value to WVU were found, the 10 schools would be sharing a little bit more than $160M/yr in media rights or about $16M/apiece?

That would be a stiff hair cut
02-11-2021 09:50 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 37,913
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 7737
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #11
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-11-2021 09:50 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  And hypothetically, if Texas and Oklahoma left the Big 12 and two replacements of similar value to WVU were found, the 10 schools would be sharing a little bit more than $160M/yr in media rights or about $16M/apiece?

That would be a stiff hair cut

Yes and Yes to the last two posts. What this shows clearly is who the laggards and who the earners are in each conference and by what percentage the lag or lead. From there you examine the reasons for it.

West Virginia and Missouri are simply suffering from loss of interest because they are playing entirely new foes for the most part. When Missouri joined the SEC, outside of A&M who joined with them, the most they had played any one SEC school was Vanderbilt about 7-9 times over the years. Not one single SEC member other than Vandy had played Missouri 5 times in their whole history.

No interest from the SEC, and loss of interest from Big 8 / 12 fans.

Ditto for West Virginia.

Rutgers issues were just centered around being in a pro sports market where college athletics were not paramount and having little competitiveness in the money sports.

Superbrands like Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma will carry value and interest anywhere they go, so long as they don't lose their local interest base. So they need to stay in an area their fans can easily travel.

The SEC has a solid contract but look at the number of schools earning 10% or more of it. Compare that to the Big 10 where Michigan and Ohio State hold nearly 1/3rd of the total pie between them, and then compare it to the Big 12 where Texas and Oklahoma hold nearly 40% of the total pie.

If you want to compare school to school across conferences then go back to the individual valuations of the WSJ and compare just those and leave the money out.

Clemson if added to the SEC would be 11th in value, yet they lead the ACC. When the leader of a conference is valued less than the average value of one of your member schools it tells you that there is no school from that other conference that can add to your bottom line.

It just puts in plain sight the reasons the SEC at nearly 70 million in revenue with the new contract cannot consider anyone from the ACC for membership based on finances. If ESPN guaranteed North Carolina's revenue because they wanted them to have Kentucky for hoops then it could happen. But there are no ACC full members who can add to the SEC's revenue, or to the Big 10's. Notre Dame can. Nobody else. From the Big 12 Texas and Oklahoma can, and nobody else.

So if the SEC and Big 10 don't raid each other (and they won't) then our growth candidates are very very slim.

If we wanted a dynamic P3 the best way to get it would be for the top 4 schools of the PAC to join Notre Dame in the Big 12 with maybe a Florida State to round out the additions.

Then two tweener conferences could be formed out of the remnant of the rest. In fact the Big 12 should shed some.

Form a new Big 12 that looked like this:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami
Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Notre Dame
Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech, U.S.C.
Oregon, Stanford, Washington, Utah

If the Big 10 wanted to add Virginia and North Carolina to 16 and the networks would pay for it great. If the SEC wanted to add Virginia Tech and N.C. State and the networks would pay for it then great. If the two conferences reversed those schools with the Big 10 wanting the land grants and the SEC wanting the academics then great.

My point we might all be better off with a solid P3 of 48 schools in that the revenue would be more competitive and the national interest likely present.

Arizona, Arizona State, California, U.C.L.A., Oregon State and Washington State could join Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U. and Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and West Virginia along with Louisville and Duke and call it a day.
02-11-2021 02:10 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


Fighting Muskie Offline
Senior Chief Realignmentologist
*

Posts: 11,797
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 789
I Root For: Ohio St, UC,MAC
Location: Biden Cesspool
Post: #12
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
JR—where would you put the valuation of the SEC at per year at 24 members—

Oklahoma
Texas
Florida St
Clemson
Pick any 6 Big 12 or ACC schools you want

I think 24 would be a sweet spot where the conference could maximize both the individual value of its biggest brands and use its enormous market share to demand premium rates for their content.

What are your thoughts as the ideal size for revenue?
02-12-2021 11:24 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
AllTideUp Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,154
Joined: Jul 2015
Reputation: 559
I Root For: Alabama
Location:
Post: #13
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-12-2021 11:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  JR—where would you put the valuation of the SEC at per year at 24 members—

Oklahoma
Texas
Florida St
Clemson
Pick any 6 Big 12 or ACC schools you want

I think 24 would be a sweet spot where the conference could maximize both the individual value of its biggest brands and use its enormous market share to demand premium rates for their content.

What are your thoughts as the ideal size for revenue?

There's something about the number 24 to me as well.

It's very large and obviously you wouldn't have everyone playing regularly, but the market share(assuming you have decent brands) would force any network to look at the valuations differently.
02-12-2021 12:05 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 37,913
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 7737
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #14
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-12-2021 11:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  JR—where would you put the valuation of the SEC at per year at 24 members—

Oklahoma
Texas
Florida St
Clemson
Pick any 6 Big 12 or ACC schools you want

I think 24 would be a sweet spot where the conference could maximize both the individual value of its biggest brands and use its enormous market share to demand premium rates for their content.

What are your thoughts as the ideal size for revenue?

At 24 the SEC starts to lose per school revenue. Twenty could be justified. Texas and Oklahoma add 1.95 billion to the SEC's total. That is still the optimal move. But the SEC could justify for Winter sports sake the additions of Kansas and North Carolina to go with Kentucky to boost the SEC's basketball value. Add Florida State to control he top ad rates in Florida and Clemson for a content multiplier and maybe you could justify 20.

But in reality the SEC's payouts would never be higher that they would be if they just went to 16 with Texas and Oklahoma.
02-12-2021 01:20 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
BePcr07 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,900
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 342
I Root For: Boise St & Zags
Location:
Post: #15
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-12-2021 01:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-12-2021 11:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  JR—where would you put the valuation of the SEC at per year at 24 members—

Oklahoma
Texas
Florida St
Clemson
Pick any 6 Big 12 or ACC schools you want

I think 24 would be a sweet spot where the conference could maximize both the individual value of its biggest brands and use its enormous market share to demand premium rates for their content.

What are your thoughts as the ideal size for revenue?

At 24 the SEC starts to lose per school revenue. Twenty could be justified. Texas and Oklahoma add 1.95 billion to the SEC's total. That is still the optimal move. But the SEC could justify for Winter sports sake the additions of Kansas and North Carolina to go with Kentucky to boost the SEC's basketball value. Add Florida State to control he top ad rates in Florida and Clemson for a content multiplier and maybe you could justify 20.

But in reality the SEC's payouts would never be higher that they would be if they just went to 16 with Texas and Oklahoma.

I like 20. Shoot for Clemson, Florida St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, and Texas Tech. Actually 21 is not terrible - add Kansas.

21
East: Clemson, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
02-12-2021 05:17 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Transic_nyc Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,401
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 194
I Root For: Return To Stability
Location:
Post: #16
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
Everyone knew that Ohio State and Michigan would be the top two in the Big Ten but the position of Nebraska relative to the rest of the conference is noteworthy as well. That may change if they continue to struggle in football but it's impressive that they've maintained a decent position even with their struggles, just ahead of Iowa and well ahead of Michigan State.

I'm starting to understand more why the Big Ten went ahead and picked Nebraska over Missouri and why rumors of interest in a program like Oklahoma aren't so far-fetched.
02-13-2021 02:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 37,913
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 7737
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #17
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-13-2021 02:32 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Everyone knew that Ohio State and Michigan would be the top two in the Big Ten but the position of Nebraska relative to the rest of the conference is noteworthy as well. That may change if they continue to struggle in football but it's impressive that they've maintained a decent position even with their struggles, just ahead of Iowa and well ahead of Michigan State.

I'm starting to understand more why the Big Ten went ahead and picked Nebraska over Missouri and why rumors of interest in a program like Oklahoma aren't so far-fetched.

It's why we all want them, and Texas as well. The impact does lift all other conference members. The question will come down to whether they prefer the familiarity of the Big 12 to the financial detriment, or whether they feel the need to cash in on what the SEC or Big 10 can offer in that regard. If they don't move, I don't think we have movement in the P5 in 2024. If they move, I believe Texas will feel that keeping pace is necessary. If that happens they'll more than a few moves.
02-13-2021 04:31 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
OdinFrigg Online
Gone Fishing
*

Posts: 1,794
Joined: Oct 2017
Reputation: 402
I Root For: Canine & Avian
Location: 4,250 mi sw of Oslo
Post: #18
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
This is what bothers me. Conferences may expand with schools thinking they are adding great new markets. It does not always synthesize very well. Even when Penn State moved to the BIG, there were plenty of disgruntled fans when it first happened. Much of the fan base travels, and heading deep into the midwest often wasn't so favorable.

West Virginia in the Big 12 is the blatant example of awkward placement. They would have fit well into the ACC, and provided the ACC fb (and bb really) more quality in the northern tier of the conference.

I am more optimistic about Mizzou. They are not an extreme outlier. They are cultivating good SEC rivalries. Note, being placed in the SEC-east, trips to/from Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and even Tennessee, cannot be described as close. On most other measures, it is a positive association.
02-13-2021 03:29 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
JRsec Offline
Super Moderator
*

Posts: 37,913
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 7737
I Root For: SEC
Location:
Post: #19
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-13-2021 03:29 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  This is what bothers me. Conferences may expand with schools thinking they are adding great new markets. It does not always synthesize very well. Even when Penn State moved to the BIG, there were plenty of disgruntled fans when it first happened. Much of the fan base travels, and heading deep into the midwest often wasn't so favorable.

West Virginia in the Big 12 is the blatant example of awkward placement. They would have fit well into the ACC, and provided the ACC fb (and bb really) more quality in the northern tier of the conference.

I am more optimistic about Mizzou. They are not an extreme outlier. They are cultivating good SEC rivalries. Note, being placed in the SEC-east, trips to/from Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and even Tennessee, cannot be described as close. On most other measures, it is a positive association.

If the SEC added Texas and Kansas, or even Oklahoma and Kansas it would go a long way to making the Missouri move work. With two to the West Alabama and Auburn move East, we abandon permanent rivals and Missouri moves West where they belong.
02-13-2021 03:43 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
murrdcu Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,969
Joined: Aug 2014
Reputation: 144
I Root For: Arkansas
Location:
Post: #20
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(02-12-2021 05:17 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(02-12-2021 01:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-12-2021 11:24 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  JR—where would you put the valuation of the SEC at per year at 24 members—

Oklahoma
Texas
Florida St
Clemson
Pick any 6 Big 12 or ACC schools you want

I think 24 would be a sweet spot where the conference could maximize both the individual value of its biggest brands and use its enormous market share to demand premium rates for their content.

What are your thoughts as the ideal size for revenue?

At 24 the SEC starts to lose per school revenue. Twenty could be justified. Texas and Oklahoma add 1.95 billion to the SEC's total. That is still the optimal move. But the SEC could justify for Winter sports sake the additions of Kansas and North Carolina to go with Kentucky to boost the SEC's basketball value. Add Florida State to control he top ad rates in Florida and Clemson for a content multiplier and maybe you could justify 20.

But in reality the SEC's payouts would never be higher that they would be if they just went to 16 with Texas and Oklahoma.

I like 20. Shoot for Clemson, Florida St, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, and Texas Tech. Actually 21 is not terrible - add Kansas.

21
East: Clemson, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech
South: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

(02-13-2021 03:29 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  This is what bothers me. Conferences may expand with schools thinking they are adding great new markets. It does not always synthesize very well. Even when Penn State moved to the BIG, there were plenty of disgruntled fans when it first happened. Much of the fan base travels, and heading deep into the midwest often wasn't so favorable.

West Virginia in the Big 12 is the blatant example of awkward placement. They would have fit well into the ACC, and provided the ACC fb (and bb really) more quality in the northern tier of the conference.

I am more optimistic about Mizzou. They are not an extreme outlier. They are cultivating good SEC rivalries. Note, being placed in the SEC-east, trips to/from Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and even Tennessee, cannot be described as close. On most other measures, it is a positive association.

1. Adding new markets opened a clause in the SEC TV contracts to reevaluate its value for the new members and add more cable boxes to the SeEC Network to aid its startup and success.

2. Mizzou playing in the East in football helped re-establish new recruiting grounds and connections. Winning the East twice proved Mizzou could succeed, not sure they would finish that high in the west.

3. We have a window for another round of expansion coming up, but is there a need or desire for teams to switch conferences. More importantly, is there a way to monetize it so all members come out ahead?
02-13-2021 03:58 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.