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A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #41
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(07-12-2022 10:21 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  Rumors are flying around, some perpetuated by bloggers and amateurish writers for elementary-level sports news websites. These aren’t discussions, but some allow comments to be posted. Are any of them getting it right? Maybe by luck. And these “basement dudes” on Twitter that some posters will quote/reference in the general threads, becomes more comical than carrying any respectable level of credibility.

Speculation is great for this board. JRSEC could have had a lucrative career in fortune-telling. The timing of the announced moves of OU & UT to the SEC, and the announced moves of UCLA & USC to the BIG, were impressive calls. I was quite skeptical on the later.

I do believe something is up with the SEC. The conference brass and Presidents are being too quiet right now. They are not saying “we are sticking with 16”. They are not denying certain rumored discussions.

One intriguing rumor is that Notre Dame, Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, Duke, GA Tech, and Virginia, will be the schools to fracture the ACC’s GoR. Are the SEC and BIG with ESPN and perhaps Fox, secretly collaborating on this? Could there be something akin to the following:

To the BIG: Notre Dame, UVA, UNC, and Georgia Tech

To the SEC: Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Duke.

20 teams each. Something such as this would not shock me.

I can promise one thing. The SEC would never agree to a B1G presence anywhere South of North Carolina, specifically Atlanta. Miami would be an Island and doesn't carry enough of Florida to hurt us, particularly if we picked up FSU to push the Gator's plurality of audience into a super majority.

The problem with UNC is that boosters and alums are 90+ % in favor of the SEC over the B10. Academics aren't. But sports is a consumer business. Oklahoma academics had to take a back seat to donors and alums and they will at UNC. UNC will come with a tag-along. In 2011 they wanted Duke. There is speculation the state regents will push NC State this time.

I would say if there is any cooperation with the B1G, which I doubt, UVa, Duke, N.D. and Kansas would be their choices. Maybe Pitt over Kansas.

SEC would be UNC, FSU, Clemson and likely N.C. State over Va Tech. Which is why I think the SEC would make one wholesale move in coordination with ESPN to simply lock down the SE. Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, N.C. State, Duke, Ga Tech, Clemson, and FSU. This keeps games local picks up 2 new states, cements rivals, and locks out the B1G preserving add rate dominance within our footprint which would be lost to sharing some markets with the B1G, which we simply won't do. But something those 8 schools if they could stay together would likely jump on.

This assumes ND goes B1G.
07-12-2022 10:44 AM
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GarnetAndBlue Offline
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Post: #42
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(07-12-2022 10:44 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-12-2022 10:21 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  Rumors are flying around, some perpetuated by bloggers and amateurish writers for elementary-level sports news websites. These aren’t discussions, but some allow comments to be posted. Are any of them getting it right? Maybe by luck. And these “basement dudes” on Twitter that some posters will quote/reference in the general threads, becomes more comical than carrying any respectable level of credibility.

Speculation is great for this board. JRSEC could have had a lucrative career in fortune-telling. The timing of the announced moves of OU & UT to the SEC, and the announced moves of UCLA & USC to the BIG, were impressive calls. I was quite skeptical on the later.

I do believe something is up with the SEC. The conference brass and Presidents are being too quiet right now. They are not saying “we are sticking with 16”. They are not denying certain rumored discussions.

One intriguing rumor is that Notre Dame, Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, Duke, GA Tech, and Virginia, will be the schools to fracture the ACC’s GoR. Are the SEC and BIG with ESPN and perhaps Fox, secretly collaborating on this? Could there be something akin to the following:

To the BIG: Notre Dame, UVA, UNC, and Georgia Tech

To the SEC: Clemson, FSU, Miami, and Duke.

20 teams each. Something such as this would not shock me.

I can promise one thing. The SEC would never agree to a B1G presence anywhere South of North Carolina, specifically Atlanta. Miami would be an Island and doesn't carry enough of Florida to hurt us, particularly if we picked up FSU to push the Gator's plurality of audience into a super majority.

The problem with UNC is that boosters and alums are 90+ % in favor of the SEC over the B10. Academics aren't. But sports is a consumer business. Oklahoma academics had to take a back seat to donors and alums and they will at UNC. UNC will come with a tag-along. In 2011 they wanted Duke. There is speculation the state regents will push NC State this time.

I would say if there is any cooperation with the B1G, which I doubt, UVa, Duke, N.D. and Kansas would be their choices. Maybe Pitt over Kansas.

SEC would be UNC, FSU, Clemson and likely N.C. State over Va Tech. Which is why I think the SEC would make one wholesale move in coordination with ESPN to simply lock down the SE. Virginia, Virginia Tech, UNC, N.C. State, Duke, Ga Tech, Clemson, and FSU. This keeps games local picks up 2 new states, cements rivals, and locks out the B1G preserving add rate dominance within our footprint which would be lost to sharing some markets with the B1G, which we simply won't do. But something those 8 schools if they could stay together would likely jump on.

This assumes ND goes B1G.

If the SEC made an invite to those 8 it would be a done deal in the present environment. Which tells me the offer isn't on the table yet. 4X the likelihood of loose lips compared to recent expansions that flew under the radar. So I'm skeptical at this point. It would be an end game move as far as SEC > B1G.
07-12-2022 01:18 PM
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murrdcu Offline
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Post: #43
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
Question: would the combo of Oregon and Washington financially break even in the SEC? Disregard geography and cultural fit
07-12-2022 06:22 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #44
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
(07-12-2022 06:22 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  Question: would the combo of Oregon and Washington financially break even in the SEC? Disregard geography and cultural fit

No.
07-12-2022 06:35 PM
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #45
RE: A Different Way to Look at the Value of Schools with Regard to Realignment
Was looking over the original post for the first time in quite a while and I noticed something:

Clemson / 12.5% of Conference Value / $56,350,000 value of media share
Florida St./ 12.2% of Conference Value / $54,997,600 value of media share
Virginia Tech / 11.7% of Conference Value / $52,743,600 value of media share
Georgia Tech / 9.0% of Conference Value / $40,572,000 value of media share
Miami / 8.1% of Conference Value / $36,514,800 value of media share
N.C. St./ 7.5% of Conference Value / $33,810,000 value of media share
Louisville / 7.4% of Conference Value / $33,359,200 value of media share
North Carolina / 6.5% of Conference Value / $29,302,000 value of media share

The top 8 most valuable members of the ACC(not including Notre Dame) are the very targets we pretty much talk about the most.

Virginia is 9th and Duke is even further down than that.

Intriguing actually.
07-26-2022 10:32 PM
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