Yep, the only league that might truly benefit from expansion is the PAC by getting into Texas. They already recruit Texas pretty heavily, especially the Arizona schools, but have lately been somewhat losing out to SMU. However, it will depend on the payments in the new contracts so long as Texas and OU remain pat.

(03-04-2021 01:33 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 12:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 12:46 PM)panite Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:42 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Excellent, but note that adding Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and USF - - plus the two Arizona schools - - would turn the Big XII into the Big XVI.

If the Big12 expands of its own volition, its not taking any AAC schools (we've already been down that road in 2016 when it was determined AAC schools didnt have enough value). The only additions that MIGHT spur a voluntary expansion by the B12 would have to be existing P5 schools.

If the new Pac -12 Comish can generate tv revenue equal to / or greater than the B-12 then no on will leave the Pac - 12 for the B-12. If anything the B-12 big 2 (Texas and Oklahoma0 would be joining the Pac -12 or anther P5 conference. That said the big 2 (Texas and Oklahoma) will remain in the B-12 as the king pins and the Arizona
schools, and Utah and Colorado will remain in the Pac-12 with their west coast thinking and west coast ties. The B-12 will remain at 10 schools for the fosterable future, and if expansion of the B-12 takes place then BYU and one AAC will be considered. Another reason for the B-12 staying at 10 schools is that they already have a championship game under NCAA rules and don't need any more mouths to feed at this time.

Its more likely that the demographics and viewership trends would favor the Pac-12 falling further behind. Oklahoma and Texas are better off adding some Pac12 teams to a largely central time zone conference than becoming outliers in a largely western time zone conference.

Well, sure, Texas and Oklahoma would love to add Pac-12 schools.

The core problem that the Big 12 has always had, though, is that it's by far the most top-heavy conference in terms of conference realignment power. The best academic school, the largest population (including the largest state and the 3 largest TV markets) and the top recruiting area in the conference are all covered by a *single* school: Texas. Living in the Big 12 if you're not Texas is like living on an earthquake fault line - you can go for years or decades with stability, but if Texas starts getting frisky, then the entire league starts scattering for safety and your house can collapse. See the SWC and the Big 12 ten years ago.

If I were a billionaire, it's like comparing buying the Cleveland Cavs versus the L.A. Lakers. The Cleveland Cavs with LeBron were the biggest draw in basketball for years... but when LeBron left, they were a bottom-feeder again. The entirety of the value of the Cavs was wrapped up in one superstar. In contrast, the L.A. Lakers have *intrinsic* value with or without LeBron. Sure, they're the mega-watt team with LeBron, but even if he leaves, the L.A. Lakers are still the most valuable team in the NBA.

The point is that the Big 12 is like the Cleveland Cavs while the Pac-12 is like the L.A. Lakers. The Big 12's power comes from having Texas *specifically*. Take that away and the league crumbles overnight.

In contrast, the Pac-12's power is dispersed. Even if another league were to poach, say, USC, UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State, look at who's still left. There's Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Utah... all schools that deliver larger markets than *any* school in the Big 12 besides Texas. Take away the 3 most valuable schools in the Big 12 (Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas) and we're legitimately questioning whether it's a power conference. In contrast, the Pac-12 could lose its 4 most valuable schools (take your pick) and it will 100% *still* be a power conference. The power structure sure as heck isn't kicking out the remaining Pac-12 flagship schools and elite institutions that they all want to associate themselves with. So, it should be obvious which *conference* is stronger for the long-run.

That's why the Big 12 doesn't have poaching power over the rest of the Power Five even though they're actually making a lot of money right now. A school like USC isn't stupid - they were at the table 10 years ago when they talked directly to Texas that was ready to bail on the Big 12 in a way that *never* happened with their own Western conference mates.

Now, Texas might currently be quite happy with their position in the Big 12. They effectively get paid like an independent with the Longhorn Network while still controlling an entire power conference. However, let's face it: the earthquake fault line still runs through Austin. Anyone that was a fan of a SWC school or a former Big 12 school knows that - whatever Texas giveth in money today can taketh away in an instant.

Separately, the demographics in the West are actually fantastic. Colorado, Arizona and Utah have among the fastest growing markets in the United States, while Oregon and Washington continue to grow at a good clip, too. The growth is also much more concentrated in the higher wage tech and finance jobs in the West compared to the population growth in the South. In contrast, the demographic growth in the Big 12 is almost entirely wrapped up in the state of Texas. Essentially, Texas masks the demographic weakness of the rest of the league. Kansas, Iowa and West Virginia have had poor demographic growth compared to the rest of the country for many years. This is yet another example of how singularly dependent the Big 12 is on Texas in a way that doesn't exist for any other P5 league.

You simply could not be more mistaken on the demographics issue. The western demographics are horrible. Yes, they are growing---but 76% of the nations population lives in the eastern and central time zones. Worse yet, the 24% of the national population in the 2 western time zones seems to have proven itself to be less interested in sports viewership than the rest of the nation. So, not only do you have less population in the west---but that population is generally less interested in sports programming than the eastern half of the country.

So--other than offering late night P5 content---there is little about the Pac-12 to make it a more valuable commodity than any of the other P5's. Your better off adding more top end quality to a central/eastern P5 like the Big-12 than trying to create value in a western based conference. The Big-12 may have strife---but of late---its the Pac12 that seems lost with more of its members unhappy with the conference development. Its the Pac-12 thats largely been shut out of the CFP. Its the Pac-12 thats been showing little in the NCAA tournament. Its the Pac-12 that has the schools feeling the financial crunch. Pac-12 schools are making less than most of the other P5 schools. Now they have canned their long time commissioner. Five years ago in 2016---I think your analysis would have been spot on. Five years later---I think the Big-12 has found solid footing while the Pac-12 has faltered.

(03-04-2021 03:49 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 01:33 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 12:58 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 12:46 PM)panite Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If the Big12 expands of its own volition, its not taking any AAC schools (we've already been down that road in 2016 when it was determined AAC schools didnt have enough value). The only additions that MIGHT spur a voluntary expansion by the B12 would have to be existing P5 schools.

If the new Pac -12 Comish can generate tv revenue equal to / or greater than the B-12 then no on will leave the Pac - 12 for the B-12. If anything the B-12 big 2 (Texas and Oklahoma0 would be joining the Pac -12 or anther P5 conference. That said the big 2 (Texas and Oklahoma) will remain in the B-12 as the king pins and the Arizona
schools, and Utah and Colorado will remain in the Pac-12 with their west coast thinking and west coast ties. The B-12 will remain at 10 schools for the fosterable future, and if expansion of the B-12 takes place then BYU and one AAC will be considered. Another reason for the B-12 staying at 10 schools is that they already have a championship game under NCAA rules and don't need any more mouths to feed at this time.

Its more likely that the demographics and viewership trends would favor the Pac-12 falling further behind. Oklahoma and Texas are better off adding some Pac12 teams to a largely central time zone conference than becoming outliers in a largely western time zone conference.

Well, sure, Texas and Oklahoma would love to add Pac-12 schools.

The core problem that the Big 12 has always had, though, is that it's by far the most top-heavy conference in terms of conference realignment power. The best academic school, the largest population (including the largest state and the 3 largest TV markets) and the top recruiting area in the conference are all covered by a *single* school: Texas. Living in the Big 12 if you're not Texas is like living on an earthquake fault line - you can go for years or decades with stability, but if Texas starts getting frisky, then the entire league starts scattering for safety and your house can collapse. See the SWC and the Big 12 ten years ago.

If I were a billionaire, it's like comparing buying the Cleveland Cavs versus the L.A. Lakers. The Cleveland Cavs with LeBron were the biggest draw in basketball for years... but when LeBron left, they were a bottom-feeder again. The entirety of the value of the Cavs was wrapped up in one superstar. In contrast, the L.A. Lakers have *intrinsic* value with or without LeBron. Sure, they're the mega-watt team with LeBron, but even if he leaves, the L.A. Lakers are still the most valuable team in the NBA.

The point is that the Big 12 is like the Cleveland Cavs while the Pac-12 is like the L.A. Lakers. The Big 12's power comes from having Texas *specifically*. Take that away and the league crumbles overnight.

In contrast, the Pac-12's power is dispersed. Even if another league were to poach, say, USC, UCLA, Arizona and Arizona State, look at who's still left. There's Stanford, Cal, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Utah... all schools that deliver larger markets than *any* school in the Big 12 besides Texas. Take away the 3 most valuable schools in the Big 12 (Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas) and we're legitimately questioning whether it's a power conference. In contrast, the Pac-12 could lose its 4 most valuable schools (take your pick) and it will 100% *still* be a power conference. The power structure sure as heck isn't kicking out the remaining Pac-12 flagship schools and elite institutions that they all want to associate themselves with. So, it should be obvious which *conference* is stronger for the long-run.

That's why the Big 12 doesn't have poaching power over the rest of the Power Five even though they're actually making a lot of money right now. A school like USC isn't stupid - they were at the table 10 years ago when they talked directly to Texas that was ready to bail on the Big 12 in a way that *never* happened with their own Western conference mates.

Now, Texas might currently be quite happy with their position in the Big 12. They effectively get paid like an independent with the Longhorn Network while still controlling an entire power conference. However, let's face it: the earthquake fault line still runs through Austin. Anyone that was a fan of a SWC school or a former Big 12 school knows that - whatever Texas giveth in money today can taketh away in an instant.

Separately, the demographics in the West are actually fantastic. Colorado, Arizona and Utah have among the fastest growing markets in the United States, while Oregon and Washington continue to grow at a good clip, too. The growth is also much more concentrated in the higher wage tech and finance jobs in the West compared to the population growth in the South. In contrast, the demographic growth in the Big 12 is almost entirely wrapped up in the state of Texas. Essentially, Texas masks the demographic weakness of the rest of the league. Kansas, Iowa and West Virginia have had poor demographic growth compared to the rest of the country for many years. This is yet another example of how singularly dependent the Big 12 is on Texas in a way that doesn't exist for any other P5 league.

You simply could not be more mistaken on the demographics issue. The western demographics are horrible. Yes, they are growing---but 76% of the nations population lives in the eastern and central time zones. Worse yet, the 24% of the national population in the 2 western time zones seems to have proven itself to be less interested in sports viewership than the rest of the nation. So, not only do you have less population in the west---but that population is generally less interested in sports programming that the eastern half of the country.

So--other than offering late night P5 content---there is little about the Pac-12 to make it a more valuable commodity than any of the other P5's. Your better off adding more top end quality to a central/eastern P5 like the Big-12 than trying to create value in a western based conference. The Big-12 may have strife---but of late---its the Pac12 that seems lost with more of its members unhappy with the conference development. Its the Pac-12 thats largely been shut out of the CFP. Its the Pac-12 thats been showing little in the NCAA tournament. Its the Pac-12 that has the schools feeling the financial crunch. Pac-12 schools are making less than most of the other P5 schools. Now they have canned their long time commissioner. Five years ago in 2016---I think your analysis would have been spot on. Five years later---I think the Big-12 has found solid footing while the Pac-12 has faltered.

Agree with CFB being an eastern & central time zone commodity. Acknowledging that why would the Big 12 want to expand west with those teams that are tanking? They'd be much better off getting into the eastern time zone as it's the prime market.

(02-27-2021 11:53 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I just think that the presumption by BYU that being independent, playing 4-6 P5 schools/yr, and not having access to the G5 NY6 slot is preferable to a fb-only relationship with the AAC and that somehow they make more money and are perceived to be better.

BYU is already playing a national schedule in football so it’s not going to cost them any more to play AAC football.

They can keep Utah and Utah St on their annual schedule, play Weber/Dixie/SUU for their FCS game, and play one more PAC 12 team with their other OOC slot to help keep an element of their schedule regional.

It’d be nice to bring BYU and Boise St in together as partners, and then find a 3rd western school to compliment them.

Agree. If Boise St. and Utah St. were to join, along with BYU, it would permit BYU to schedule up to 4 P5 opponents (see below).

(03-04-2021 01:05 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  The presumption is very much correct for BYU. This is about prestige, branding, and not being *structurally* inferior to Utah (which is what would automatically occur if they join a G5 conference). The money, G5 bowl access and scheduling are very much secondary and tertiary issues compared to the top line prestige/branding issues. BYU is in a position where they'd rather take a haircut on money in order to have more control and claim (with some validity) that they're "powerful" enough to be a successful independent in a way that Utah isn't able to do (although, to be clear, they'd join a P5 league in a heartbeat).

AAC fans shouldn't waste their time with BYU (and I've been saying that for years).

To the extent that the AAC needs a 12th team, Army and/or Air Force should be the top targets as football-only schools. There would be quite a bit of value in brining all of the service academies under one roof for football. It gets very muddled beyond those two. (Boise State is obviously the most valuable from a pure competitive standpoint, but it reeks of a shotgun marriage as opposed to a long-term solution for both the AAC and Boise.)

BYU's regular season schedule, arranged prior to the 2020 season
https://byucougars.com/story/football/12...-schedule:

Final
Ranking:

#31 Utah^*
#82 MSU^
#108 Arizona^
#63 Minnesota^
#116 Utah State
#53 Missouri^
#81 Houston
#103 N. Illinois
#28 Boise State*
#60 San Diego St.
FCS N. Alabama
#38 Stanford^*

^P5 opponents
*Top 50 teams (3)

Average Massey Composite Rank: #67.5 (not including FCS game)

....................................................................................................

A BYU schedule if BYU, Boise St., and Utah State were in the AAC:

#31 Utah^*
#82 MSU^
#63 Minnesota^
#28 Boise State*
#102 Navy
#81 Houston
#35 Tulsa*
#51 SMU
#45 Memphis*
#116 Utah State
#37 UCF*
#38 Stanford^*

^P5 opponents
*Top 50 teams (6)
OOC games

Average Massey Composite rank of opponents: #43.3

.

BYU would have had a significantly stronger 2020 FB schedule in the AAC, even though they would have played fewer P5 teams.

In addition, they could have won the AAC West Division championship, and could have played in the AAC championship game.

(03-04-2021 01:44 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 12:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 12:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:42 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Excellent, but note that adding Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and USF - - plus the two Arizona schools - - would turn the Big XII into the Big XVI.

If the Big12 expands of its own volition, its not taking any AAC schools (we've already been down that road in 2016 when it was determined AAC schools didnt have enough value). The only additions that MIGHT spur a voluntary expansion by the B12 would have to be existing P5 schools.

I disagree, the only adds that make sense for the Big 12 come from the AAC. A western expansion doesn't make sense for them as football is trending downward out west and the Pac 12 has made itself irrelevant in recent years. It'll be interesting to see what their new commish does to try and overcome that.

Then there will be no expansion. Expansion with G5 teams has already been thoroughly researched by the conference and networks in 2016. The final determination was that such an expansion was not economically viable.

In 2016 when that was happening most of our schools still had the CUSA stink on them and we didn't even have a decent TV deal. Our top programs have made massive leaps since then. I believe ESPN structured our tv deal so they have the option of picking out 2-4 programs that have proven themselves valuable enough to place in a P5 OR if enough have grown in value they have the option of elevating the conference at the end of the tv deal. Frankly I think the first is more likely.

Cincinnati hasn't played in C-USA since 2004 but according to many, we still have the stink on us. Funny how it went away for TCU and Louisville seemingly overnight.

(03-05-2021 01:15 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 01:44 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 12:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 12:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  If the Big12 expands of its own volition, its not taking any AAC schools (we've already been down that road in 2016 when it was determined AAC schools didnt have enough value). The only additions that MIGHT spur a voluntary expansion by the B12 would have to be existing P5 schools.

I disagree, the only adds that make sense for the Big 12 come from the AAC. A western expansion doesn't make sense for them as football is trending downward out west and the Pac 12 has made itself irrelevant in recent years. It'll be interesting to see what their new commish does to try and overcome that.

Then there will be no expansion. Expansion with G5 teams has already been thoroughly researched by the conference and networks in 2016. The final determination was that such an expansion was not economically viable.

In 2016 when that was happening most of our schools still had the CUSA stink on them and we didn't even have a decent TV deal. Our top programs have made massive leaps since then. I believe ESPN structured our tv deal so they have the option of picking out 2-4 programs that have proven themselves valuable enough to place in a P5 OR if enough have grown in value they have the option of elevating the conference at the end of the tv deal. Frankly I think the first is more likely.

Cincinnati hasn't played in C-USA since 2004 but according to many, we still have the stink on us. Funny how it went away for TCU and Louisville seemingly overnight.

I think you are right. Part of it is because TCU and L'Ville received their brass rings when the merry go round went around during the last realignment periods. Part of it is because the AAC sold off the Big East name that had big time football associated with it in Syracuse, Miami, Pitt, and to some extent Boston College though not as much as the first three mentioned. And finally part of the reason is that your right back with CUSA teams like USF, UCF, Tulane, Memphis, ECU and Houston where you started now pushing the AAC P6 battle to be better than the other G5 conferences the P5 schools associate the AAC with. JMO.

(03-05-2021 01:37 PM)panite Wrote:  

(03-05-2021 01:15 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 01:44 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 12:55 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 12:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  I disagree, the only adds that make sense for the Big 12 come from the AAC. A western expansion doesn't make sense for them as football is trending downward out west and the Pac 12 has made itself irrelevant in recent years. It'll be interesting to see what their new commish does to try and overcome that.

Then there will be no expansion. Expansion with G5 teams has already been thoroughly researched by the conference and networks in 2016. The final determination was that such an expansion was not economically viable.

In 2016 when that was happening most of our schools still had the CUSA stink on them and we didn't even have a decent TV deal. Our top programs have made massive leaps since then. I believe ESPN structured our tv deal so they have the option of picking out 2-4 programs that have proven themselves valuable enough to place in a P5 OR if enough have grown in value they have the option of elevating the conference at the end of the tv deal. Frankly I think the first is more likely.

Cincinnati hasn't played in C-USA since 2004 but according to many, we still have the stink on us. Funny how it went away for TCU and Louisville seemingly overnight.

I think you are right. Part of it is because TCU and L'Ville received their brass rings when the merry go round went around during the last realignment periods. Part of it is because the AAC sold off the Big East name that had big time football associated with it in Syracuse, Miami, Pitt, and to some extent Boston College though not as much as the first three mentioned. And finally part of the reason is that your right back with CUSA teams like USF, UCF, Tulane, Memphis, ECU and Houston where you started now pushing the AAC P6 battle to be better than the other G5 conferences the P5 schools associate the AAC with. JMO.

Cincy's going through a coaching transition and rebuilding of their program, and suddenly there is a "stink" attached to them?

You're imagining things. Kentucky is 8-16, and Duke is 11-10, but no one is saying that there is a stink attached to them. People don't start talking like that about a legacy program until it's been in the doldrums for at least 5 years in a row.

The Bearcats played in 9 of the last 10 NCAA tournaments and finished the 2016-17, 2017-18, and 2018-19 seasons in the Final AP Top 25.

College programs go through cycles and transitions, especially when they change HCs. Cincy's just going through one of those cycles now.

(02-15-2021 04:28 PM)HiddenDragon Wrote:  

(02-14-2021 03:00 PM)AusTxPony Wrote:  UAB will be a good add along with ApState, Marshall and Coastal/GaState when UC, Memphis, UCF and USF go to the Big 12 and SMU, UH go to PAC 12.

Exactly ... If I were UAB or any team in CUSA ... I would avoid the AAC like the COVID VIRUS !!! Can get invited and 4 teams head off somewhere else ... and your stuck in a conference no better than the one your in. MOST Memphis fans would welcome UAB because of our history. But Disneyworld and Ex SWC members as well as the North Kentucky Allstars are riding some serious magic carpets with pick me please lamps ... and I don't mean fans on this board. Stay where your at ... FYOG !!

(03-04-2021 12:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:42 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:05 AM)AusTxPony Wrote:  The PAC should expand into Texas taking SMU and Houston thereby adding the Central Time Zone and the two largest TV markets in Texas. Maybe adding BYU and Boise as well. Big XII would likely add Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and USF if they wanted to expand. I can't see the PAC adding more Cal schools or the XII more Texas schools due to recruiting competition. If Texas and OU move, then the scramble is on.

Excellent, but note that adding Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and USF - - plus the two Arizona schools - - would turn the Big XII into the Big XVI.

If the Big12 expands of its own volition, its not taking any AAC schools (we've already been down that road in 2016 when it was determined AAC schools didnt have enough value). The only additions that MIGHT spur a voluntary expansion by the B12 would have to be existing P5 schools.

I disagree, the only adds that make sense for the Big 12 come from the AAC. A western expansion doesn't make sense for them as football is trending downward out west and the Pac 12 has made itself irrelevant in recent years. It'll be interesting to see what their new commish does to try and overcome that.

You should disagree, if they take the 2 Arizona schools, Utah and welcome back Colorado then it means that UCF would not make the cut.

Tom Bowen is the gift that keeps on giving. A search for waiver info turned up this interview with ex Memphis/ current Ark. St. AD Bowen. Around the 12 min mark, he talks about the AAC waiver continuing for the next two years. Says the waiver allows for the opportunity to wait until alignment begins to make a decision w/o putting pressure on the conference. Guess I'll have to add Bowen back into my AAC searches.

(05-13-2021 12:55 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  Tom Bowen is the gift that keeps on giving. A search for waiver info turned up this interview with ex Memphis/ current Ark. St. AD Bowen. Around the 12 min mark, he talks about the AAC waiver continuing for the next two years. Says the waiver allows for the opportunity to wait until alignment begins to make a decision w/o putting pressure on the conference. Guess I'll have to add Bowen back into my AAC searches.

Well THAT's going to put a crimp in a certain hillbilly's narrative...

USFFan

(03-04-2021 12:43 PM)MidknightWhiskey Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:42 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(03-04-2021 11:05 AM)AusTxPony Wrote:  The PAC should expand into Texas taking SMU and Houston thereby adding the Central Time Zone and the two largest TV markets in Texas. Maybe adding BYU and Boise as well. Big XII would likely add Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and USF if they wanted to expand. I can't see the PAC adding more Cal schools or the XII more Texas schools due to recruiting competition. If Texas and OU move, then the scramble is on.

Excellent, but note that adding Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF and USF - - plus the two Arizona schools - - would turn the Big XII into the Big XVI.

If the Big12 expands of its own volition, its not taking any AAC schools (we've already been down that road in 2016 when it was determined AAC schools didnt have enough value). The only additions that MIGHT spur a voluntary expansion by the B12 would have to be existing P5 schools.

I disagree, the only adds that make sense for the Big 12 come from the AAC. A western expansion doesn't make sense for them as football is trending downward out west and the Pac 12 has made itself irrelevant in recent years. It'll be interesting to see what their new commish does to try and overcome that.

Few people have questioned the notion that western expansion would make sense for the AAC, however. Even though the viewership trends may not be encouraging right now, the population growth may overwhelm that, and just as the PAC 12 picked up in MBB this year, it may also pick up in FB some time soon.

The AAC could probably benefit quite a bit more than the Big 12 could from tapping into a whole new time zone, which would do relatively little for the Big 12, since they don't really need to boost their viewership revenue at this point.

(03-04-2021 11:54 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The only additions that MIGHT spur a voluntary expansion by the B12 would have to be existing P5 schools.

True, but what PAC 12 school in its right mind would want to depart the hallowed, effete halls of the PAC 12 for the buck'em bronco style of body bag football that they would have to deal with in the Big 12? They would also have to deal with quite a culture clash.

.

One other thing that may be worth remembering while people are talking about the relative virtues of western expansion from the standpoint of the Big 12 and AAC is that, if the AAC adds 3 western teams, it will (by the numbers) become a de facto "Big-XIV," and the so-called "Big-XII" will remain (numerically speaking) a de facto "Little X."

.

One thing to keep in mind... I Believe that 16 is too many, at that point the only croos division game will be the CCG... The A-5 will become the A-6 (AAC) and the G4 will become the G6 with the addition of the WAC and the A-Sun... Financially there will be very little change, % wise, from current $$$ but there will be a new level of D-1 Football.

A few teams may move, but no one is going to 16.

(05-13-2021 03:39 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  One thing to keep in mind... I Believe that 16 is too many, at that point the only croos division game will be the CCG... The A-5 will become the A-6 (AAC) and the G4 will become the G6 with the addition of the WAC and the A-Sun... Financially there will be very little change, % wise, from current $$$ but there will be a new level of D-1 Football.

A few teams may move, but no one is going to 16.

Depends. That would effectively regionalize a conference as your really only playing in your own division. It cuts costs--so, 16 might be a good idea depending on what you are trying to accomplish. If I were CUSA--that would be my answer. In going to 16, you effectively get the vast majority of the cost benefits of a Sunbelt/CUSA reshuffle without having any of the issues. If the AAC went to a 16 team nationwide conference---controlling travel expenses in that massive footprint would be important as well.

(05-13-2021 04:23 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(05-13-2021 03:39 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  One thing to keep in mind... I Believe that 16 is too many, at that point the only croos division game will be the CCG... The A-5 will become the A-6 (AAC) and the G4 will become the G6 with the addition of the WAC and the A-Sun... Financially there will be very little change, % wise, from current $$$ but there will be a new level of D-1 Football.

A few teams may move, but no one is going to 16.

Depends. That would effectively regionalize a conference as your really only playing in your own division. It cuts costs--so, 16 might be a good idea depending on what you are trying to accomplish. If I were CUSA--that would be my answer. In going to 16, you effectively get the vast majority of the cost benefits of a Sunbelt/CUSA reshuffle without having any of the issues. If the AAC went to a 16 team nationwide conference---controlling travel expenses in that massive footprint would be important as well.

.

Right, and the way to control travel expenses is by "effectively regionaliz(ing the) conference" as you wrote above, so that the teams end up playing 2/3 to 3/4 of their games within their own divisions.

What that does for a conference is to give them the best of both worlds. They get the added bargaining power, revenue, and viewership that goes along with having more teams, and they also get to economize by playing most of the games within their own regions, however they are defined.

Where the AAC is right now is really the worst of both worlds in multiple respects. Rather than moving toward cutting travel time and travel costs, the AAC has moved in exactly the opposite direction by choosing to eliminate divisional play and divisional scheduling, and is continuing to move in exactly the opposite direction, if the reports are true that each basketball team will play a home/away series vs. every other team in the conference.

Replacing UConn and returning to divisional play and either divisional or regional scheduling to cut travel time/costs would be a major step in the right direction. Expanding to 14 teams and going with divisional scheduling (e.g., 11 divisional games and 7 cross-divisional games) would make it possible to add three western teams without increasing net travel time or travel costs for the conference as a whole.

Moreover, expanding to 14 is probably the only way to attain autonomous and P6 status, would make it nearly impossible for any "G4" conference to catch up to the AAC, and would also make it much more difficult - - if not impossible - - for all five of the P5 conferences to stay ahead of the AAC in the FB and BB rankings.

Further, expanding to 14 is definitely the only way that the AAC is ever going to have any possibility of being able to send 6 or 7 teams to any future NCAA tournament, like all the P5 and Big East have done, which is - - or at least should be - - what it aspires to.

.

As far as expanding to 16, maybe the AAC would consider doing that heading into its next broadcasting negotiations, if that's the only way it could get the network support it needs to win autonomy status.

Otherwise, it seems unlikely unless one of the P5 conferences or possibly the C-USA takes the leap first, since the AAC has developed a well-deserved reputation for hemming and hawing and yammering and thinking forever and a day, and then sitting on its hands and deciding not to do anything at all.

..

(05-13-2021 03:39 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  One thing to keep in mind... I Believe that 16 is too many, at that point the only croos division game will be the CCG... The A-5 will become the A-6 (AAC) and the G4 will become the G6 with the addition of the WAC and the A-Sun... Financially there will be very little change, % wise, from current $$$ but there will be a new level of D-1 Football.

A few teams may move, but no one is going to 16.

You spoke of the WAC and A-Sun moving up to FBS, but where would the 6 FBS independents end up in that scenario?

-- out in the cold?

-- better off than they are now?

Also, while there has been a lot of chatter about schools that might be next to make the jump, the two schools that seem to be considered to have the best shot at making the FCS to FBS have made it clear that they like their situation just fine as it is right now.

NDSU is in no position to make the jump unless/until one of the G5 conferences offers them a big enough paycheck to cover all their travel expenses and then some.

James Madison's leadership has expressed extreme reservations and concerns about the harm that may come to that university if it takes the risk of jumping to FBS and then getting burned. Apparently, neither they nor NDSU has a large enough endowment to take such a gamble.

.

Is it likely that the G5 will expand to G6 within the next decade, assuming that the AAC is still a G5 in 2022?

Perhaps, but here's what it would take:

1. Some of the FBS independents would have to sign on or help to set up the next conference.

--The most likely ones would probably be those in the northeastern quadrang of the nation: UConn, UMass, Army, and Liberty. However, UConn and Army would probably only join as FB members, and it's not clear if any of these schools would want to be in the same conference as Liberty.

--So that means that either Liberty or UMass, if not both, would be the most likely FBS independents to help set up a new FBS conference.

--Could they persuade James Madison to join? Probably. JMU mainly needs someone to shepherd them along. Could they get UConn and/or Army to join as FB members? They could probably get UConn.

--So what have they got then? Even if they can persuade JMU, maybe two or three full members and one FB-only member.

--What about BYU and New Mexico State? BYU would almost certainly reject the idea. New Mexico State might consider joining as a FB-only member, but they probably couldn't afford the travel costs for full membership.

--Ok - that leaves them with 2 or 3 full members and perhaps 2 FB only members. That's still an awfully long way from a minimum of 8 FB and BB schools.

--Now, there are some other schools that are considering a move up:

----Jacksonville State seems most keen to join the club.

----Sam Houston State has appeared on a lot of lists, for example:

https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/foot...-look-like

----Southern Illinois has been discussed quite a bit.

----Florida A&M has given the idea serious consideration.

Others (very iffy):

----Delaware (strong FCS program) but doesn't seem interested.

----Eastern Washington

----U. Texas Arlington (reboot)

----Mentioned but little or no interest: URI, Richmond, ...

----Youngstown State (OH)

.

Of these, the schools that are west of the Mississippi would have to be considered a long shot, at best, from the standpoint of Liberty and James Madison, for example, if they were to try to make this happen.

Let's imagine the best case scenario for an eastern FBS or mid-eastern FBS conference if every school on the list were to accept an invitation:

1. Liberty
2. James Madison
3. Delaware
4. Youngstown State
5. Southern Illinois
6. Jacksonville State
7. Florida A&M
.
UMass (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Rhode Island (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Richmond (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
UConn (FB only) Wouldn't leave the BE.
Army (FB only) Doesn't join but affiliates like ND affiliates with the ACC

.

There would be more than enough - 10, 11, or 12 schools - for a new FBS football conference.

However, the only way the 7 full members could establish a sanctioned D1 all-sports conference would be to go with a hybrid model like the Big East was when it had highly different sets of BB, FB, and all-sports members.

That would involve persuading 3 D1 schools to leave their current conferences and join the new conference as BB/olympic members.
That wouldn't be easy, but perhaps the schools in the CAA (Delaware, and JMU could persuade Towson and Hofstra and Drexel to join as BB/olympic members.

Or better still, perhaps Delaware and James Madison would convince the CAA to expand into a hybrid FBS conference (much like the original Big East did), with every current CAA member, including Delaware and JMU remaining in the CAA, but accepting all the FB schools into the CAA as full (BB/olympic/FB) members.

Then, you'd be looking at a hybrid conference like this:

"The (FBS) Colonial Athletic Association:"

BB/Olympic Members (considered (potential) "full" members):

1. College of Charleston
2. Delaware
3. Drexel
4. Eton
5. Hofstra
6. JMU
7. Northeastern
8. Towson
9. UNC Wilmington
10. College of William & Mary
11. Liberty - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
12. Youngstown State - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
13. Southern Illinois - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
14. Jacksonville State - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
15. Florida A&M - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA

Football-Only Affiliates with no interest in switching:

UMass (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Rhode Island (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Richmond (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
UConn (FB only) Wouldn't leave the BE.
Army (FB only) Doesn't join but affiliates like ND affiliates with the ACC

CAA Football Conference:

CAA North:...........CAA South:

UMass....................Liberty
UConn...................James Madison
Rhode Island..........Jacksonville St.
Youngstown St........Florida A&M
S. Illinois................Richmond
Army......................Delaware

.

Could this work? I think that it probably could, because it would be a lot easier to build on an existing conference than it would be to start up an entirely new conference, and because the Big East proved that it can be done.

If not the CAA, is there any other eastern conference that could work?

There actually is - - and it is the Atlantic Sun, which you referred to.

Liberty is currently a member, and Jacksonville State is joining this year.
All they would have to do is persuade enough schools that can move toward FBS status within a few seasons to join the A-Sun, while persuading the current A-Sun members to expand into a FBS conference by adding 6 or 8 football schools and perhaps a couple of new full members.

Either the CAA or the A-Sun could become a FBS conference within 6-8 years, maybe sooner, if they start out with a core of 4 current FBS independents and can add at least 4 FCS schools to switch to FBS within that time frame.

.

The next most likely possibility might be a conference like the AAC that has a footprint stretching 3/4 of the way across the country like this:


All-Sports Members:

1. Liberty
2. James Madison
3. Delaware
4. Youngstown State
5. Southern Illinois
6. Jacksonville State
7. Florida A&M
8. Sam Houston State
9. U. Texas-Arlington
10. New Mexico State
11. Eastern Washington

Plus a few FB-only affiliates (e.g., UMass, UConn)

Could that work?

I'm not seeing it right now. It looks too spread out, and it would have to start up a whole new conference.

Maybe that's what you had in mind regarding the WAC - - starting out with New Mexico State as the core FBS team and building from there with NDSU, the two Texas schools, etc., etc.

But the WAC version would probably take closer to 10 years, since they'd be starting out with a smaller FBS core.
.

Regardless you seem to have some insights of your own that I don't have about the WAC and the A-Sun. Do tell...

.

(02-08-2021 07:11 AM)blazr Wrote:  I’m a UAB fan so I’ve got a biased view of expansion, but whatever AAC does for football (12 or 14) what season is the end of the can getting kicked down the road? I could swear I heard some of you guys saying the NCAA told the conf they’re not going to get another exemption to play with 11, but that was a couple of years ago, of course.

Short answer: The AAC is not inviting UAB any time soon.

(05-14-2021 08:14 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-08-2021 07:11 AM)blazr Wrote:  I’m a UAB fan so I’ve got a biased view of expansion, but whatever AAC does for football (12 or 14) what season is the end of the can getting kicked down the road? I could swear I heard some of you guys saying the NCAA told the conf they’re not going to get another exemption to play with 11, but that was a couple of years ago, of course.

Short answer: The AAC is not inviting UAB any time soon.

agree, Don't even think they would be at the top of an eastern add.

(05-13-2021 05:50 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(05-13-2021 03:39 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  One thing to keep in mind... I Believe that 16 is too many, at that point the only croos division game will be the CCG... The A-5 will become the A-6 (AAC) and the G4 will become the G6 with the addition of the WAC and the A-Sun... Financially there will be very little change, % wise, from current $$$ but there will be a new level of D-1 Football.

A few teams may move, but no one is going to 16.

You spoke of the WAC and A-Sun moving up to FBS, but where would the 6 FBS independents end up in that scenario?

-- out in the cold?

-- better off than they are now?

Also, while there has been a lot of chatter about schools that might be next to make the jump, the two schools that seem to be considered to have the best shot at making the FCS to FBS have made it clear that they like their situation just fine as it is right now.

NDSU is in no position to make the jump unless/until one of the G5 conferences offers them a big enough paycheck to cover all their travel expenses and then some.

James Madison's leadership has expressed extreme reservations and concerns about the harm that may come to that university if it takes the risk of jumping to FBS and then getting burned. Apparently, neither they nor NDSU has a large enough endowment to take such a gamble.

.

Is it likely that the G5 will expand to G6 within the next decade, assuming that the AAC is still a G5 in 2022?

Perhaps, but here's what it would take:

1. Some of the FBS independents would have to sign on or help to set up the next conference.

--The most likely ones would probably be those in the northeastern quadrang of the nation: UConn, UMass, Army, and Liberty. However, UConn and Army would probably only join as FB members, and it's not clear if any of these schools would want to be in the same conference as Liberty.

--So that means that either Liberty or UMass, if not both, would be the most likely FBS independents to help set up a new FBS conference.

--Could they persuade James Madison to join? Probably. JMU mainly needs someone to shepherd them along. Could they get UConn and/or Army to join as FB members? They could probably get UConn.

--So what have they got then? Even if they can persuade JMU, maybe two or three full members and one FB-only member.

--What about BYU and New Mexico State? BYU would almost certainly reject the idea. New Mexico State might consider joining as a FB-only member, but they probably couldn't afford the travel costs for full membership.

--Ok - that leaves them with 2 or 3 full members and perhaps 2 FB only members. That's still an awfully long way from a minimum of 8 FB and BB schools.

--Now, there are some other schools that are considering a move up:

----Jacksonville State seems most keen to join the club.

----Sam Houston State has appeared on a lot of lists, for example:

https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/foot...-look-like

----Southern Illinois has been discussed quite a bit.

----Florida A&M has given the idea serious consideration.

Others (very iffy):

----Delaware (strong FCS program) but doesn't seem interested.

----Eastern Washington

----U. Texas Arlington (reboot)

----Mentioned but little or no interest: URI, Richmond, ...

----Youngstown State (OH)

.

Of these, the schools that are west of the Mississippi would have to be considered a long shot, at best, from the standpoint of Liberty and James Madison, for example, if they were to try to make this happen.

Let's imagine the best case scenario for an eastern FBS or mid-eastern FBS conference if every school on the list were to accept an invitation:

1. Liberty
2. James Madison
3. Delaware
4. Youngstown State
5. Southern Illinois
6. Jacksonville State
7. Florida A&M
.
UMass (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Rhode Island (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Richmond (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
UConn (FB only) Wouldn't leave the BE.
Army (FB only) Doesn't join but affiliates like ND affiliates with the ACC

.

There would be more than enough - 10, 11, or 12 schools - for a new FBS football conference.

However, the only way the 7 full members could establish a sanctioned D1 all-sports conference would be to go with a hybrid model like the Big East was when it had highly different sets of BB, FB, and all-sports members.

That would involve persuading 3 D1 schools to leave their current conferences and join the new conference as BB/olympic members.
That wouldn't be easy, but perhaps the schools in the CAA (Delaware, and JMU could persuade Towson and Hofstra and Drexel to join as BB/olympic members.

Or better still, perhaps Delaware and James Madison would convince the CAA to expand into a hybrid FBS conference (much like the original Big East did), with every current CAA member, including Delaware and JMU remaining in the CAA, but accepting all the FB schools into the CAA as full (BB/olympic/FB) members.

Then, you'd be looking at a hybrid conference like this:

"The (FBS) Colonial Athletic Association:"

BB/Olympic Members (considered (potential) "full" members):

1. College of Charleston
2. Delaware
3. Drexel
4. Eton
5. Hofstra
6. JMU
7. Northeastern
8. Towson
9. UNC Wilmington
10. College of William & Mary
11. Liberty - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
12. Youngstown State - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
13. Southern Illinois - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
14. Jacksonville State - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
15. Florida A&M - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA

Football-Only Affiliates with no interest in switching:

UMass (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Rhode Island (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Richmond (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
UConn (FB only) Wouldn't leave the BE.
Army (FB only) Doesn't join but affiliates like ND affiliates with the ACC

CAA Football Conference:

CAA North:...........CAA South:

UMass....................Liberty
UConn...................James Madison
Rhode Island..........Jacksonville St.
Youngstown St........Florida A&M
S. Illinois................Richmond
Army......................Delaware

.

Could this work? I think that it probably could, because it would be a lot easier to build on an existing conference than it would be to start up an entirely new conference, and because the Big East proved that it can be done.

If not the CAA, is there any other eastern conference that could work?

There actually is - - and it is the Atlantic Sun, which you referred to.

Liberty is currently a member, and Jacksonville State is joining this year.
All they would have to do is persuade enough schools that can move toward FBS status within a few seasons to join the A-Sun, while persuading the current A-Sun members to expand into a FBS conference by adding 6 or 8 football schools and perhaps a couple of new full members.

Either the CAA or the A-Sun could become a FBS conference within 6-8 years, maybe sooner, if they start out with a core of 4 current FBS independents and can add at least 4 FCS schools to switch to FBS within that time frame.

.

The next most likely possibility might be a conference like the AAC that has a footprint stretching 3/4 of the way across the country like this:


All-Sports Members:

1. Liberty
2. James Madison
3. Delaware
4. Youngstown State
5. Southern Illinois
6. Jacksonville State
7. Florida A&M
8. Sam Houston State
9. U. Texas-Arlington
10. New Mexico State
11. Eastern Washington

Plus a few FB-only affiliates (e.g., UMass, UConn)

Could that work?

I'm not seeing it right now. It looks too spread out, and it would have to start up a whole new conference.

Maybe that's what you had in mind regarding the WAC - - starting out with New Mexico State as the core FBS team and building from there with NDSU, the two Texas schools, etc., etc.

But the WAC version would probably take closer to 10 years, since they'd be starting out with a smaller FBS core.
.

Regardless you seem to have some insights of your own that I don't have about the WAC and the A-Sun. Do tell...

.

As far as the Independents, I believe that ND would be the only one to tag along with the A-6 doe to their arrangement with the ACC...Unless they decide to join the ACC full time and maybe UConn or someone else would bring the ACC to 16.

The rest can play as independents as they do now at the G-6 level or FCS.

If any of the A-5 some how manage to get to 16... That will be the end of the AAC!

(05-13-2021 05:50 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(05-13-2021 03:39 PM)GoOwls111 Wrote:  One thing to keep in mind... I Believe that 16 is too many, at that point the only croos division game will be the CCG... The A-5 will become the A-6 (AAC) and the G4 will become the G6 with the addition of the WAC and the A-Sun... Financially there will be very little change, % wise, from current $$$ but there will be a new level of D-1 Football.

A few teams may move, but no one is going to 16.

You spoke of the WAC and A-Sun moving up to FBS, but where would the 6 FBS independents end up in that scenario?

-- out in the cold?

-- better off than they are now?

Also, while there has been a lot of chatter about schools that might be next to make the jump, the two schools that seem to be considered to have the best shot at making the FCS to FBS have made it clear that they like their situation just fine as it is right now.

NDSU is in no position to make the jump unless/until one of the G5 conferences offers them a big enough paycheck to cover all their travel expenses and then some.

James Madison's leadership has expressed extreme reservations and concerns about the harm that may come to that university if it takes the risk of jumping to FBS and then getting burned. Apparently, neither they nor NDSU has a large enough endowment to take such a gamble.

.

Is it likely that the G5 will expand to G6 within the next decade, assuming that the AAC is still a G5 in 2022?

Perhaps, but here's what it would take:

1. Some of the FBS independents would have to sign on or help to set up the next conference.

--The most likely ones would probably be those in the northeastern quadrang of the nation: UConn, UMass, Army, and Liberty. However, UConn and Army would probably only join as FB members, and it's not clear if any of these schools would want to be in the same conference as Liberty.

--So that means that either Liberty or UMass, if not both, would be the most likely FBS independents to help set up a new FBS conference.

--Could they persuade James Madison to join? Probably. JMU mainly needs someone to shepherd them along. Could they get UConn and/or Army to join as FB members? They could probably get UConn.

--So what have they got then? Even if they can persuade JMU, maybe two or three full members and one FB-only member.

--What about BYU and New Mexico State? BYU would almost certainly reject the idea. New Mexico State might consider joining as a FB-only member, but they probably couldn't afford the travel costs for full membership.

--Ok - that leaves them with 2 or 3 full members and perhaps 2 FB only members. That's still an awfully long way from a minimum of 8 FB and BB schools.

--Now, there are some other schools that are considering a move up:

----Jacksonville State seems most keen to join the club.

----Sam Houston State has appeared on a lot of lists, for example:

https://www.si.com/college/oklahoma/foot...-look-like

----Southern Illinois has been discussed quite a bit.

----Florida A&M has given the idea serious consideration.

Others (very iffy):

----Delaware (strong FCS program) but doesn't seem interested.

----Eastern Washington

----U. Texas Arlington (reboot)

----Mentioned but little or no interest: URI, Richmond, ...

----Youngstown State (OH)

.

Of these, the schools that are west of the Mississippi would have to be considered a long shot, at best, from the standpoint of Liberty and James Madison, for example, if they were to try to make this happen.

Let's imagine the best case scenario for an eastern FBS or mid-eastern FBS conference if every school on the list were to accept an invitation:

1. Liberty
2. James Madison
3. Delaware
4. Youngstown State
5. Southern Illinois
6. Jacksonville State
7. Florida A&M
.
UMass (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Rhode Island (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Richmond (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
UConn (FB only) Wouldn't leave the BE.
Army (FB only) Doesn't join but affiliates like ND affiliates with the ACC

.

There would be more than enough - 10, 11, or 12 schools - for a new FBS football conference.

However, the only way the 7 full members could establish a sanctioned D1 all-sports conference would be to go with a hybrid model like the Big East was when it had highly different sets of BB, FB, and all-sports members.

That would involve persuading 3 D1 schools to leave their current conferences and join the new conference as BB/olympic members.
That wouldn't be easy, but perhaps the schools in the CAA (Delaware, and JMU could persuade Towson and Hofstra and Drexel to join as BB/olympic members.

Or better still, perhaps Delaware and James Madison would convince the CAA to expand into a hybrid FBS conference (much like the original Big East did), with every current CAA member, including Delaware and JMU remaining in the CAA, but accepting all the FB schools into the CAA as full (BB/olympic/FB) members.

Then, you'd be looking at a hybrid conference like this:

"The (FBS) Colonial Athletic Association:"

BB/Olympic Members (considered (potential) "full" members):

1. College of Charleston
2. Delaware
3. Drexel
4. Eton
5. Hofstra
6. JMU
7. Northeastern
8. Towson
9. UNC Wilmington
10. College of William & Mary
11. Liberty - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
12. Youngstown State - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
13. Southern Illinois - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
14. Jacksonville State - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA
15. Florida A&M - if they wish to switch BB/olympic to the CAA

Football-Only Affiliates with no interest in switching:

UMass (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Rhode Island (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
Richmond (FB only) Would not want to leave the Atlantic 10
UConn (FB only) Wouldn't leave the BE.
Army (FB only) Doesn't join but affiliates like ND affiliates with the ACC

CAA Football Conference:

CAA North:...........CAA South:

UMass....................Liberty
UConn...................James Madison
Rhode Island..........Jacksonville St.
Youngstown St........Florida A&M
S. Illinois................Richmond
Army......................Delaware

.

Could this work? I think that it probably could, because it would be a lot easier to build on an existing conference than it would be to start up an entirely new conference, and because the Big East proved that it can be done.

If not the CAA, is there any other eastern conference that could work?

There actually is - - and it is the Atlantic Sun, which you referred to.

Liberty is currently a member, and Jacksonville State is joining this year.
All they would have to do is persuade enough schools that can move toward FBS status within a few seasons to join the A-Sun, while persuading the current A-Sun members to expand into a FBS conference by adding 6 or 8 football schools and perhaps a couple of new full members.

Either the CAA or the A-Sun could become a FBS conference within 6-8 years, maybe sooner, if they start out with a core of 4 current FBS independents and can add at least 4 FCS schools to switch to FBS within that time frame.

.

The next most likely possibility might be a conference like the AAC that has a footprint stretching 3/4 of the way across the country like this:


All-Sports Members:

1. Liberty
2. James Madison
3. Delaware
4. Youngstown State
5. Southern Illinois
6. Jacksonville State
7. Florida A&M
8. Sam Houston State
9. U. Texas-Arlington
10. New Mexico State
11. Eastern Washington

Plus a few FB-only affiliates (e.g., UMass, UConn)

Could that work?

I'm not seeing it right now. It looks too spread out, and it would have to start up a whole new conference.

Maybe that's what you had in mind regarding the WAC - - starting out with New Mexico State as the core FBS team and building from there with NDSU, the two Texas schools, etc., etc.

But the WAC version would probably take closer to 10 years, since they'd be starting out with a smaller FBS core.
.

Regardless you seem to have some insights of your own that I don't have about the WAC and the A-Sun. Do tell...

.

8 football playing members is what it takes to play at the FBS level as a football conference.

I'm not responsible for putting conferences together nor am I tasked with the duty of what they should look like.

Both the WAC and the A-Sun have publicly expressed interest of moving up to FBS level for football, when and how is of no interest to me...

My point is that having 6 A-5 and 6 G-4 probably avoids antitrust lawsuits!