EKU, Jacksonville St., UCA, the four Texas schools are making moves. This could give a nudge to some G5 schools/conferences to give more consideration to realignment. Ignore this trend at your own peril.

Alignment from the bottom up? Not exactly, however, something is going on according to the UCA AD and he wanted to get ahead proactively. Competition and upward aspirations of these schools could give impetus to G5's in Texas, Arkansas, Alabama, and Kentucky to consider moves sooner than expected. If you totally dismiss these FCS upheavals and FBS talk by smaller schools it may be unwise.

Do they have the money? A few do and others might raise the funds.

Do they have the fan base? Some already do and others could count on increases with better schedules.

Some current G5 programs could lose recruits, support, and perception.
P5 schools are not the only competition.

It may be judicious for the SBC and C-USA to make their geographic reconfigurations. Anyone left out in the East will have a fall back in the ASUN and the in the West, the WAC.

So what moves might those G5's make in response to more FCS schools trying to move up? Indeed, what moves can they make?

The P5 schools probably don't much care how many G5 schools there are. There's a finite pool of money for the G5 from the CFP, and it doesn't matter to them whether that pool is split 65 ways or 80. Increasing the number of G5 schools won't grow the size of that pool.

Just reshuffling the deck by realigning the existing G5 conferences won't grow the money pool either. So it would seem the only strategy for the G5 is to try to prevent these potential new FBS teams from being allowed to move up. Unfortunately, they don't have much leverage to do that. They can't seriously threaten to leave the NCAA. Where would they go?

My guess is that those few G5 schools that are at present "P5 adjacent" could try to encourage the P5 to leave the NCAA and take them along for the ride. At most the number of such tweener schools is no more than 10-15. The other 50 are just screwed, and will have some hard decisions to make in the near future.

(01-29-2021 06:48 PM)ken d Wrote:  So what moves might those G5's make in response to more FCS schools trying to move up? Indeed, what moves can they make?

The P5 schools probably don't much care how many G5 schools there are. There's a finite pool of money for the G5 from the CFP, and it doesn't matter to them whether that pool is split 65 ways or 80. Increasing the number of G5 schools won't grow the size of that pool.

Just reshuffling the deck by realigning the existing G5 conferences won't grow the money pool either. So it would seem the only strategy for the G5 is to try to prevent these potential new FBS teams from being allowed to move up. Unfortunately, they don't have much leverage to do that. They can't seriously threaten to leave the NCAA. Where would they go?

My guess is that those few G5 schools that are at present "P5 adjacent" could try to encourage the P5 to leave the NCAA and take them along for the ride. At most the number of such tweener schools is no more than 10-15. The other 50 are just screwed, and will have some hard decisions to make in the near future.

As a fan of a G5 that made all the right moves and investments and got invited to move up by an FBS conference it feels like a gut punch that this group of schools might be able to become FBS just because they say so. Oh well, it'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.

UCF, Boise State, and Marshall are shaking in their boots at the prospect of Southern Utah and Central Arkansas stealing some of their thunder!

More clashes. Let me be more specific.

Alabama: North Ala., Jack. St. put a small drain on UAB,Troy, S. Ala.

Texas: The Texas FOUR likewise on UNT,UTSA,Tex. St.,UTEP.

Arkansas: UCA maybe a very small drain on ARK. St., more on Little Rock even though they don't have FB

Kentucky: EKU puts a small drain on WKU

What drain? Enrollment,publicity, perception, recruits, money. These may be small but in some cases could be significant especially in the next 3-6 years. These schools are determined to be noticed and more relevant. If they are aggressive and win over a few rich donors or gain more state political clout they will grow. What do current G5's do? They have limited remedies but now have more competition.

There are requirements for FBS. For instance, most of these schools are nowhere near the required attendance. Only the top ten attendance leaders in all of FCS have the attendance to qualify for FBS. Most of the schools we are talking about arent even close. If anything is going on, it's not a bottom up threat that the G5 needs to worry about. My guess, these folks are positioning themselves for a P5 break away (which I happen to think is fairly unlikely). I can only assume they think there will be an opportunity in the future to fill out the left behind G5 FBS division with a few quality "move up" FCS conferences IF the P5 breaks away. Such an opportunity would be enhanced if the P5 takes a dozen or so G5's with them. That need for some "move up" FCS conferences becomes even more likely if the P5 allows a the AAC and MW to come along to their new "Power Division".

On the other hand, maybe these FCS programs see that many of their current conference mates may not be able to sustain D1-FCS programs much longer and are looking to avoid finding themselves stuck in a collapsing conference with few or no options. Better to be first out when the options are more plentiful. Im guessing Covid has given these FCS AD's a good idea of who is reasonably financially solid and who is living on borrowed time.

NCAA Attendance Stats From 2019
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_r...e/2019.pdf

FBS Requirements

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/AMA/Division%20I...8%2010.pdf

Older article indicating moving down is more likely for smaller programs than moving up--

https://www.pjstar.com/sports/20170225/r...s-big-boys

My 89-year-old father would gladly weigh in on this. He holds multiple professional certificates from the University of Oklahoma and spent many summers in Norman (dragging me along a few times when I was a young lad). As such, he quietly roots for the Sooners. He attended the University of Memphis (then Memphis State College) and served as a trainer for the athletics department. Pops loves the Tigers. He worked at Vanderbilt Stadium selling popcorn as a kid and (like all our family) cheers for the Commodores. While in the Air Force, he attended New Mexico Highlands University and still enjoys Cowboy football and NCAA Division 2 football action.

All this to say that my Pops — even at his advanced age — has a solid feel for this stuff. He and I have been talking some this week about the A-SUN moves, as they impact Lipscomb, Belmont and Tennessee State here in Nashville. He knows that some of these "lower-profile" programs do offer some potential as they strive for "more." And, of course, he will wish them well because he likes to pull for the "little man." But he also realizes the challenges they face. Pops does not see this having a major (or even minor) impact on the G5. I defer to his wisdom.

If the OVC gets bled dry, does it provide a landing spot for a C-USA split?

For example:
Murray State and Belmont to MVC (OVC at 8)
Austin Peay to ASUN (OVC at 7)
UT-Martin and Southeast Missouri State to SLC (OVC at 5)
Arkansas State, UAB, MTSU, WKU, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, Georgia State, South Alabama to OVC (OVC at 14, C-USA at 8, SBC at 7/9).

At that point C-USA trades FAU and FIU to the Sun Belt in exchange for Texas State, Little Rock, and UT-Arlington (UTA goes FBS). The Belt takes one at the expense of the A-Sun (Kennesaw State?) and C-USA tags the WAC for New Mexico State and Lamar. The WAC takes Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word, and the Southland responds with Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State

The left behinds in the OVC (Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, and SIU-Edwardsville) scatter to the Horizon and Summit.

The nine FBS members of the OVC eventually settle on James Madison as its tenth FBS member.

OVC West - Arkansas State, MTSU, South Alabama, UAB, WKU
OVC East - Charlotte, Georgia State, JMU, Marshall, ODU

CUSA West - NMSU, UTEP, Texas State, UTSA, Rice, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (no football)
CUSA East - North Texas, UTA, Louisiana Tech, Lamar, Southern Miss, Little Rock (no football)

SBC South - Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, Jacksonville State, FAU, FIU
SBC East - Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, App State, Kennesaw State

WAC West - Seattle (no fb), Utah Valley (no fb), Dixie State, Southern Utah, Grand Canyon (no fb), Cal Baptist (no fb)
WAC East - UTRGV (no fb?), Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston, Tarleton State, Abilene Christian

SLC - Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, McNeese State, Southeastern Louisiana, Northwestern State, Nicholls State, Southeast Missouri State, UT-Martin, Tennessee State

ASUN West - Central Arkansas, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Lipscomb (no fb), Bellarmine (no fb), Eastern Kentucky
ASUN East - Tennessee Tech, FGCU (no fb), Stetson (Pioneer fb), Jacksonville (no fb), North Florida (no fb), Liberty (FBS)

(01-30-2021 06:57 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  If the OVC gets bled dry, does it provide a landing spot for a C-USA split?

For example:
Murray State and Belmont to MVC (OVC at 8)
Austin Peay to ASUN (OVC at 7)
UT-Martin and Southeast Missouri State to SLC (OVC at 5)
Arkansas State, UAB, MTSU, WKU, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, Georgia State, South Alabama to OVC (OVC at 14, C-USA at 8, SBC at 7/9).

At that point C-USA trades FAU and FIU to the Sun Belt in exchange for Texas State, Little Rock, and UT-Arlington (UTA goes FBS). The Belt takes one at the expense of the A-Sun (Kennesaw State?) and C-USA tags the WAC for New Mexico State and Lamar. The WAC takes Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word, and the Southland responds with Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State

The left behinds in the OVC (Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, and SIU-Edwardsville) scatter to the Horizon and Summit.

The nine FBS members of the OVC eventually settle on James Madison as its tenth FBS member.

OVC West - Arkansas State, MTSU, South Alabama, UAB, WKU
OVC East - Charlotte, Georgia State, JMU, Marshall, ODU

CUSA West - NMSU, UTEP, Texas State, UTSA, Rice, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (no football)
CUSA East - North Texas, UTA, Louisiana Tech, Lamar, Southern Miss, Little Rock (no football)

SBC South - Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, Jacksonville State, FAU, FIU
SBC East - Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, App State, Kennesaw State

WAC West - Seattle (no fb), Utah Valley (no fb), Dixie State, Southern Utah, Grand Canyon (no fb), Cal Baptist (no fb)
WAC East - UTRGV (no fb?), Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston, Tarleton State, Abilene Christian

SLC - Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, McNeese State, Southeastern Louisiana, Northwestern State, Nicholls State, Southeast Missouri State, UT-Martin, Tennessee State

ASUN West - Central Arkansas, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Lipscomb (no fb), Bellarmine (no fb), Eastern Kentucky
ASUN East - Tennessee Tech, FGCU (no fb), Stetson (Pioneer fb), Jacksonville (no fb), North Florida (no fb), Liberty (FBS)

No way in hell Marshall wants any part of that.

(01-30-2021 06:57 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  If the OVC gets bled dry, does it provide a landing spot for a C-USA split?

For example:
Murray State and Belmont to MVC (OVC at 8)
Austin Peay to ASUN (OVC at 7)
UT-Martin and Southeast Missouri State to SLC (OVC at 5)
Arkansas State, UAB, MTSU, WKU, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, Georgia State, South Alabama to OVC (OVC at 14, C-USA at 8, SBC at 7/9).

At that point C-USA trades FAU and FIU to the Sun Belt in exchange for Texas State, Little Rock, and UT-Arlington (UTA goes FBS). The Belt takes one at the expense of the A-Sun (Kennesaw State?) and C-USA tags the WAC for New Mexico State and Lamar. The WAC takes Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word, and the Southland responds with Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State

The left behinds in the OVC (Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, and SIU-Edwardsville) scatter to the Horizon and Summit.

The nine FBS members of the OVC eventually settle on James Madison as its tenth FBS member.

OVC West - Arkansas State, MTSU, South Alabama, UAB, WKU
OVC East - Charlotte, Georgia State, JMU, Marshall, ODU

CUSA West - NMSU, UTEP, Texas State, UTSA, Rice, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (no football)
CUSA East - North Texas, UTA, Louisiana Tech, Lamar, Southern Miss, Little Rock (no football)

SBC South - Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, Jacksonville State, FAU, FIU
SBC East - Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, App State, Kennesaw State

WAC West - Seattle (no fb), Utah Valley (no fb), Dixie State, Southern Utah, Grand Canyon (no fb), Cal Baptist (no fb)
WAC East - UTRGV (no fb?), Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston, Tarleton State, Abilene Christian

SLC - Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, McNeese State, Southeastern Louisiana, Northwestern State, Nicholls State, Southeast Missouri State, UT-Martin, Tennessee State

ASUN West - Central Arkansas, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Lipscomb (no fb), Bellarmine (no fb), Eastern Kentucky
ASUN East - Tennessee Tech, FGCU (no fb), Stetson (Pioneer fb), Jacksonville (no fb), North Florida (no fb), Liberty (FBS)

JSU left out?

I put JSU in the SBC.

(01-30-2021 06:57 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  If the OVC gets bled dry, does it provide a landing spot for a C-USA split?

For example:
Murray State and Belmont to MVC (OVC at 8)
Austin Peay to ASUN (OVC at 7)
UT-Martin and Southeast Missouri State to SLC (OVC at 5)
Arkansas State, UAB, MTSU, WKU, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, Georgia State, South Alabama to OVC (OVC at 14, C-USA at 8, SBC at 7/9).

At that point C-USA trades FAU and FIU to the Sun Belt in exchange for Texas State, Little Rock, and UT-Arlington (UTA goes FBS). The Belt takes one at the expense of the A-Sun (Kennesaw State?) and C-USA tags the WAC for New Mexico State and Lamar. The WAC takes Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word, and the Southland responds with Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State

The left behinds in the OVC (Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, and SIU-Edwardsville) scatter to the Horizon and Summit.

The nine FBS members of the OVC eventually settle on James Madison as its tenth FBS member.

OVC West - Arkansas State, MTSU, South Alabama, UAB, WKU
OVC East - Charlotte, Georgia State, JMU, Marshall, ODU

CUSA West - NMSU, UTEP, Texas State, UTSA, Rice, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (no football)
CUSA East - North Texas, UTA, Louisiana Tech, Lamar, Southern Miss, Little Rock (no football)

SBC South - Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, Jacksonville State, FAU, FIU
SBC East - Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, App State, Kennesaw State

WAC West - Seattle (no fb), Utah Valley (no fb), Dixie State, Southern Utah, Grand Canyon (no fb), Cal Baptist (no fb)
WAC East - UTRGV (no fb?), Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston, Tarleton State, Abilene Christian

SLC - Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, McNeese State, Southeastern Louisiana, Northwestern State, Nicholls State, Southeast Missouri State, UT-Martin, Tennessee State

ASUN West - Central Arkansas, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Lipscomb (no fb), Bellarmine (no fb), Eastern Kentucky
ASUN East - Tennessee Tech, FGCU (no fb), Stetson (Pioneer fb), Jacksonville (no fb), North Florida (no fb), Liberty (FBS)

In the Sun Belt give me South, UAB, Georgia State, and stAte. KSU, JSU, FAU, and FIU can go OVC if they want. We can also invite Marshall and USM for a 12 team conference.

(01-31-2021 01:16 AM)Troy_Fan_15 Wrote:  

(01-30-2021 06:57 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  If the OVC gets bled dry, does it provide a landing spot for a C-USA split?

For example:
Murray State and Belmont to MVC (OVC at 8)
Austin Peay to ASUN (OVC at 7)
UT-Martin and Southeast Missouri State to SLC (OVC at 5)
Arkansas State, UAB, MTSU, WKU, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, Georgia State, South Alabama to OVC (OVC at 14, C-USA at 8, SBC at 7/9).

At that point C-USA trades FAU and FIU to the Sun Belt in exchange for Texas State, Little Rock, and UT-Arlington (UTA goes FBS). The Belt takes one at the expense of the A-Sun (Kennesaw State?) and C-USA tags the WAC for New Mexico State and Lamar. The WAC takes Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word, and the Southland responds with Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State

The left behinds in the OVC (Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, and SIU-Edwardsville) scatter to the Horizon and Summit.

The nine FBS members of the OVC eventually settle on James Madison as its tenth FBS member.

OVC West - Arkansas State, MTSU, South Alabama, UAB, WKU
OVC East - Charlotte, Georgia State, JMU, Marshall, ODU

CUSA West - NMSU, UTEP, Texas State, UTSA, Rice, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (no football)
CUSA East - North Texas, UTA, Louisiana Tech, Lamar, Southern Miss, Little Rock (no football)

SBC South - Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, Jacksonville State, FAU, FIU
SBC East - Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, App State, Kennesaw State

WAC West - Seattle (no fb), Utah Valley (no fb), Dixie State, Southern Utah, Grand Canyon (no fb), Cal Baptist (no fb)
WAC East - UTRGV (no fb?), Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston, Tarleton State, Abilene Christian

SLC - Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, McNeese State, Southeastern Louisiana, Northwestern State, Nicholls State, Southeast Missouri State, UT-Martin, Tennessee State

ASUN West - Central Arkansas, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Lipscomb (no fb), Bellarmine (no fb), Eastern Kentucky
ASUN East - Tennessee Tech, FGCU (no fb), Stetson (Pioneer fb), Jacksonville (no fb), North Florida (no fb), Liberty (FBS)

In the Sun Belt give me South, UAB, Georgia State, and stAte. KSU, JSU, FAU, and FIU can go OVC if they want. We can also invite Marshall and USM for a 12 team conference.

Over looked JSU
Troy would be the only exciting one in that group. La and Miami are a long ways to develop a rivalry.

(01-30-2021 07:58 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  

(01-30-2021 06:57 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  If the OVC gets bled dry, does it provide a landing spot for a C-USA split?

For example:
Murray State and Belmont to MVC (OVC at 8)
Austin Peay to ASUN (OVC at 7)
UT-Martin and Southeast Missouri State to SLC (OVC at 5)
Arkansas State, UAB, MTSU, WKU, Marshall, Charlotte, ODU, Georgia State, South Alabama to OVC (OVC at 14, C-USA at 8, SBC at 7/9).

At that point C-USA trades FAU and FIU to the Sun Belt in exchange for Texas State, Little Rock, and UT-Arlington (UTA goes FBS). The Belt takes one at the expense of the A-Sun (Kennesaw State?) and C-USA tags the WAC for New Mexico State and Lamar. The WAC takes Houston Baptist and Incarnate Word, and the Southland responds with Tennessee Tech and Tennessee State

The left behinds in the OVC (Eastern Illinois, Morehead State, and SIU-Edwardsville) scatter to the Horizon and Summit.

The nine FBS members of the OVC eventually settle on James Madison as its tenth FBS member.

OVC West - Arkansas State, MTSU, South Alabama, UAB, WKU
OVC East - Charlotte, Georgia State, JMU, Marshall, ODU

CUSA West - NMSU, UTEP, Texas State, UTSA, Rice, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (no football)
CUSA East - North Texas, UTA, Louisiana Tech, Lamar, Southern Miss, Little Rock (no football)

SBC South - Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, Troy, Jacksonville State, FAU, FIU
SBC East - Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, App State, Kennesaw State

WAC West - Seattle (no fb), Utah Valley (no fb), Dixie State, Southern Utah, Grand Canyon (no fb), Cal Baptist (no fb)
WAC East - UTRGV (no fb?), Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston, Tarleton State, Abilene Christian

SLC - Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, McNeese State, Southeastern Louisiana, Northwestern State, Nicholls State, Southeast Missouri State, UT-Martin, Tennessee State

ASUN West - Central Arkansas, Austin Peay, North Alabama, Lipscomb (no fb), Bellarmine (no fb), Eastern Kentucky
ASUN East - Tennessee Tech, FGCU (no fb), Stetson (Pioneer fb), Jacksonville (no fb), North Florida (no fb), Liberty (FBS)

No way in hell Marshall wants any part of that.

I think that goes for all G5s

Who's taking Lamar, Stephen F Austin and Sam Houston? They're all looking for a new home already.

There is only so much g5 cfp money to go around. If these conferences are allowed to move up, you are going to witness a supernova happen. The system is going to get absolutely blown up which is what the P5 wants. One major league... and a huge minor league.. and schools and conferences will be left to fend for themselves.

That is why I don’t think it’ll happen. They might move up, but ESPN isn’t going to televise Lamar vs tumbleweed state.

(01-31-2021 04:07 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  There is only so much g5 cfp money to go around. If these conferences are allowed to move up, you are going to witness a supernova happen. The system is going to get absolutely blown up which is what the P5 wants. One major league... and a huge minor league.. and schools and conferences will be left to fend for themselves.

That is why I don’t think it’ll happen. They might move up, but ESPN isn’t going to televise Lamar vs tumbleweed state.

It depends on which schools. They did show UCA football games on tv because of their field and that they played P5 schools tough. They could give the WAC and ASun weekday tv along with the MAC for cheap. Lamar vs Dixie State after a MACtion game would work.

More money is being pumped into the Bowls and playoffs. If you create new bowls? More sponsors to the bowls and those sponsors could sponsor advertisement to the playoffs and the playoff games which means more money.

(01-29-2021 07:06 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  UCF, Boise State, and Marshall are shaking in their boots at the prospect of Southern Utah and Central Arkansas stealing some of their thunder!

No, we are not. You are clueless about anything Marshall if you truly believe that..

(01-31-2021 06:33 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(01-31-2021 04:07 PM)THUNDERStruck73 Wrote:  There is only so much g5 cfp money to go around. If these conferences are allowed to move up, you are going to witness a supernova happen. The system is going to get absolutely blown up which is what the P5 wants. One major league... and a huge minor league.. and schools and conferences will be left to fend for themselves.

That is why I don’t think it’ll happen. They might move up, but ESPN isn’t going to televise Lamar vs tumbleweed state.

It depends on which schools. They did show UCA football games on tv because of their field and that they played P5 schools tough. They could give the WAC and ASun weekday tv along with the MAC for cheap. Lamar vs Dixie State after a MACtion game would work.

More money is being pumped into the Bowls and playoffs. If you create new bowls? More sponsors to the bowls and those sponsors could sponsor advertisement to the playoffs and the playoff games which means more money.

Again, there are only so many tv slots and only so much money. These new conferences that won’t come to fruition will not displace the MAC, Sunbelt, and Poker night.