https://www.espn.com/college-football/in...ction-2021

Bill Connelly released his returning production metric, which is his best guess on which teams will improve or not based on who all is coming back on both sides of the ball.

Here is the ranking for conferences with the average national ranking for each league.

1. Pac12 12 (wow!)
2T. Sun Belt 50
2T. ACC 50
4. Big 12 52
5. B1G 55
6. MAC 75
7. SEC 76
8T. MWC 83
8T. AAC 83
10. CUSA 87

The Pac-12 should be the most improved conference with 5 teams in the top 10 and 9 in the top 20.

Four of the bottom 5 are G5 leagues. It could be a down year for the G5 after two really good years but the Sun Belt's upswing isn't done yet with 40% of the league in the top 25.

(02-02-2021 02:56 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/college-football/in...ction-2021

Bill Connelly released his returning production metric, which is his best guess on which teams will improve or not based on who all is coming back on both sides of the ball.

Here is the ranking for conferences with the average national ranking for each league.

1. Pac12 12 (wow!)
2T. Sun Belt 50
2T. ACC 50
4. Big 12 52
5. B1G 55
6. MAC 75
7. SEC 76
8T. MWC 83
8T. AAC 83
10. CUSA 87

The Pac-12 should be the most improved conference with 5 teams in the top 10 and 9 in the top 20.

Four of the bottom 5 are G5 leagues. It could be a down year for the G5 after two really good years but the Sun Belt's upswing isn't done yet with 40% of the league in the top 25.

I suspect 2020 data will be fairly worthless for most of these types of uses. This stat seems especially wobbly since everyone who played in 2020 is actually able to return for 2021 if they wish per NCAA edict.

(02-02-2021 03:52 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-02-2021 02:56 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  https://www.espn.com/college-football/in...ction-2021

Bill Connelly released his returning production metric, which is his best guess on which teams will improve or not based on who all is coming back on both sides of the ball.

Here is the ranking for conferences with the average national ranking for each league.

1. Pac12 12 (wow!)
2T. Sun Belt 50
2T. ACC 50
4. Big 12 52
5. B1G 55
6. MAC 75
7. SEC 76
8T. MWC 83
8T. AAC 83
10. CUSA 87

The Pac-12 should be the most improved conference with 5 teams in the top 10 and 9 in the top 20.

Four of the bottom 5 are G5 leagues. It could be a down year for the G5 after two really good years but the Sun Belt's upswing isn't done yet with 40% of the league in the top 25.

I suspect 2020 data will be fairly worthless for most of these types of uses. This stat seems especially wobbly since everyone who played in 2020 is actually able to return for 2021 if they wish per NCAA edict.

Connelly knows that. Even if you don't agree with a lot of his takes, and I don't, he's not some internet rando. In fact, his article linked above has an entire section about trying to project who is returning for 2021.

As always, it's much more useful to look at projections for individual teams than for an entire conference. UCLA's returning talent doesn't help Arizona.

So when a player decides to return for an extra year, who pays for that. Is the school expected to pick up the check or does the school get money from the NCAA since it was their idea to allow players to go an extra year?

If I were to do a simple stat, I would look at returning offensive linemen.

They make or break an offense. And a bad offense can break a defense because its on the field too long in bad field position.

I can’t speak for other conferences, but several AAC teams will be flushed with transfers this fall. I am guessing they will finish higher than 8th.