https://mailchi.mp/zeihan/life-after-trump-part-iii

Parts 1 and 2 linked near the top are pretty good too

It will be interesting to see the Republican party evolve over the next decade.

The Romany polite fiscal types are certain to try and rise from the ashes along with the McCain warhawks in terms of regaining their control.

The evangelical wing will certainly want to continue their strong influence on the party, but this new populist wing is a real wildcard. Will they go back into the shadows without a Trump like dominant leader to follow? This group has a strong apathy, disdain, and mistrust for typical career politicians so im curious if they will stick around.

Then you still have the Trump factor. He could try to run again...if he did I think he would win. More likely though I think he will try to extert his influence on who's next in 2024.

Their strong state level successes are good and they should have a strong 2022 showing, but winning the presidency will require a unique recipe of success. I don't know if they will be able to create it.

It will be interesting.....

Well if the fiscal and national security conservatives don't ever come back that removes nearly all the affinity for the Republican Party to a libertarian. If they explicitly don't care about balanced budgets and reigning in the size, scope, and cost of government the GOP is just Dem-lite and ergo useless.

(01-16-2021 11:06 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Well if the fiscal and national security conservatives don't ever come back that removes nearly all the affinity for the Republican Party to a libertarian. If they explicitly don't care about balanced budgets and reigning in the size, scope, and cost of government the GOP is just Dem-lite and ergo useless.

But they've been useless for years. GWB told us during the 2000 campaign that he was going to reduce the size of the federal government and get us out of the nation-building business. We promptly blew up the size of the federal government, in part because we took on two of the largest nation-building projects ever. Since then republicans have stood for nothing, and if you stand for nothing you will fall for anything.

I am probably more pro-military and pro-law-and-order than most libertarians, but I am strongly in favor of the libertarian non-interventionist foreign policy. If business, fiscal, and national security conservatives don't have a place in the Republican Party, then they have to find a place and I will follow them. One thing for sure, it won't be with the democrats.

Maybe, but I have a feeling you're going to see the left go full on crazy in the next two years and that may bring the party back together. Trumpsters are going to have to accept that Nikki Haley is a better choice than Biden or Harris in 2024.

The McCain/Kasich types have been discredited. You can still have a Collins/Murkowski type semi-independent moderate. But big government types are done.

The main battle has been between the mainstream Jeb/Rubio/Christie types and the conservative Cruz types with the evangelicals and liberatarians and neocons and fiscal conservatives all throwing their weight one way or another. But the populists are a new substantial dynamic. If they don't drop out of voting completely. With the increasing minority population which strongly leans Democrat and the millenials leaning Democrat, the Republicans need the populists.

(01-16-2021 11:54 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  Maybe, but I have a feeling you're going to see the left go full on crazy in the next two years and that may bring the party back together. Trumpsters are going to have to accept that Nikki Haley is a better choice than Biden or Harris in 2024.

Interesting point.

Peter Zeihan has made the point that the republican coalition has historically been easier to old together because there were not a lot of internal squabbles--fiscal conservatives got along okay with national defense conservatives and they both got along okay with evangelicals--whereas democrats have a number of groups with at least some interests opposed to each other--environmentalists versus unions, blacks versus hispanics, and both blacks and hispanics tended to be religious conservatives opposed a lot of LGBT issues.

What has happened with the populists is they don't like anybody else.

Holding on to the populists may be problematic, unless democrats make a martyr out of Trump, which for some reason they seem determined to do. But like evangelicals, populists don't really have anywhere else to go. They're not going to vote democrat, and going third party or staying at home is giving the election away.

Our country just took one huge giant step to the left. It wont be moving back. Now we will be trying to find moderate dems who will not go further left.

I think with Bite'em in office we'll go back to the old status quo of meddling in other countries business. I say let them hang themselves. What in the world have we accomplished by being in those middle eastern countries helping people like the Syrian president remain in power. The Iraqis have gone back to being pro Syrian, pro Russian, pro Iranian so what did we get from that?

We should be spending our money here in the US by fixing all the infrastructure that is falling apart and in turn employing the unemployed and in turn them paying taxes and buying goods, etc. It's a circle that will always work. People can't buy things if they don't have a job and the only thing it accomplishes is that they will turn to the government dole, aka, the Demoncraptic way.

As far as funding organizations that are contrary to a Conservatives liking there is nothing that they can do. The Demoncrapped own the HofR and the Senate with the Cackle as the deciding vote.

The Rep party is done and unless the ballot all of a sudden become honest, which I doubt, they will never win again. They are DOOOOOOOMMMEEDD.

(01-16-2021 11:06 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Well if the fiscal and national security conservatives don't ever come back that removes nearly all the affinity for the Republican Party to a libertarian. If they explicitly don't care about balanced budgets and reigning in the size, scope, and cost of government the GOP is just Dem-lite and ergo useless.

Frankly, the populist don't care about budgets and they are war weary. The difference between the Dems and Republican populism is business interests.

(01-16-2021 02:40 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(01-16-2021 11:54 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  Maybe, but I have a feeling you're going to see the left go full on crazy in the next two years and that may bring the party back together. Trumpsters are going to have to accept that Nikki Haley is a better choice than Biden or Harris in 2024.

Interesting point.

Peter Zeihan has made the point that the republican coalition has historically been easier to old together because there were not a lot of internal squabbles--fiscal conservatives got along okay with national defense conservatives and they both got along okay with evangelicals--whereas democrats have a number of groups with at least some interests opposed to each other--environmentalists versus unions, blacks versus hispanics, and both blacks and hispanics tended to be religious conservatives opposed a lot of LGBT issues.

What has happened with the populists is they don't like anybody else.

Holding on to the populists may be problematic, unless democrats make a martyr out of Trump, which for some reason they seem determined to do. But like evangelicals, populists don't really have anywhere else to go. They're not going to vote democrat, and going third party or staying at home is giving the election away.

Just find a Republican populist, Buchanan, Perot, etc.

(01-16-2021 03:24 PM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  

(01-16-2021 02:40 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(01-16-2021 11:54 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  Maybe, but I have a feeling you're going to see the left go full on crazy in the next two years and that may bring the party back together. Trumpsters are going to have to accept that Nikki Haley is a better choice than Biden or Harris in 2024.

Interesting point.

Peter Zeihan has made the point that the republican coalition has historically been easier to old together because there were not a lot of internal squabbles--fiscal conservatives got along okay with national defense conservatives and they both got along okay with evangelicals--whereas democrats have a number of groups with at least some interests opposed to each other--environmentalists versus unions, blacks versus hispanics, and both blacks and hispanics tended to be religious conservatives opposed a lot of LGBT issues.

What has happened with the populists is they don't like anybody else.

Holding on to the populists may be problematic, unless democrats make a martyr out of Trump, which for some reason they seem determined to do. But like evangelicals, populists don't really have anywhere else to go. They're not going to vote democrat, and going third party or staying at home is giving the election away.

Just find a Republican populist, Buchanan, Perot, etc.

The difficulty is finding one who doesn't hate the Republicans as much as the Democrats. Pat Buchanan is the single most responsible person for giving us Bill Clinton.

https://amgreatness.com/2021/01/14/reven...e-neocons/
This pro-Trump website talks about the neocons:

"...Much of her rhetoric is indistinguishable from that of Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Congress’ biggest pimp for overblown Russia hysteria. When Trump announced plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Germany, Cheney claimed the move was “in Russia’s best interest, not America’s.” She also flipped out over the now-debunked Russian “bounty” story, demanding to know how Trump would “hold Putin accountable...."”

(01-16-2021 11:06 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Well if the fiscal and national security conservatives don't ever come back that removes nearly all the affinity for the Republican Party to a libertarian. If they explicitly don't care about balanced budgets and reigning in the size, scope, and cost of government the GOP is just Dem-lite and ergo useless.

If libertarians feel that voting D. is the way to achieve those things, then they are no less useless than the GOP.

(01-16-2021 03:24 PM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  

(01-16-2021 02:40 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(01-16-2021 11:54 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  Maybe, but I have a feeling you're going to see the left go full on crazy in the next two years and that may bring the party back together. Trumpsters are going to have to accept that Nikki Haley is a better choice than Biden or Harris in 2024.

Interesting point.

Peter Zeihan has made the point that the republican coalition has historically been easier to old together because there were not a lot of internal squabbles--fiscal conservatives got along okay with national defense conservatives and they both got along okay with evangelicals--whereas democrats have a number of groups with at least some interests opposed to each other--environmentalists versus unions, blacks versus hispanics, and both blacks and hispanics tended to be religious conservatives opposed a lot of LGBT issues.

What has happened with the populists is they don't like anybody else.

Holding on to the populists may be problematic, unless democrats make a martyr out of Trump, which for some reason they seem determined to do. But like evangelicals, populists don't really have anywhere else to go. They're not going to vote democrat, and going third party or staying at home is giving the election away.

Just find a Republican populist, Buchanan, Perot, etc.

NO. But Id be thrilled with a Goldwater.

(01-16-2021 03:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-16-2021 03:24 PM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  

(01-16-2021 02:40 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(01-16-2021 11:54 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  Maybe, but I have a feeling you're going to see the left go full on crazy in the next two years and that may bring the party back together. Trumpsters are going to have to accept that Nikki Haley is a better choice than Biden or Harris in 2024.

Interesting point.
Peter Zeihan has made the point that the republican coalition has historically been easier to old together because there were not a lot of internal squabbles--fiscal conservatives got along okay with national defense conservatives and they both got along okay with evangelicals--whereas democrats have a number of groups with at least some interests opposed to each other--environmentalists versus unions, blacks versus hispanics, and both blacks and hispanics tended to be religious conservatives opposed a lot of LGBT issues.
What has happened with the populists is they don't like anybody else.
Holding on to the populists may be problematic, unless democrats make a martyr out of Trump, which for some reason they seem determined to do. But like evangelicals, populists don't really have anywhere else to go. They're not going to vote democrat, and going third party or staying at home is giving the election away.

Just find a Republican populist, Buchanan, Perot, etc.

The difficulty is finding one who doesn't hate the Republicans as much as the Democrats. Pat Buchanan is the single most responsible person for giving us Bill Clinton.

If there was one part of the historic republican coalition that I would be happiest to get rid of, it would be the neocons. They are the true RINOs IMO. They got us bogged down in Vietnam when they were still democrats, then switched parties and got us bogged down in the mideast. I would be happy if republicans could swap the neocons for the populists. The problem is that Trump is the leader of the populist faction, and he managed to piss off fiscal, business, and national defense conservatives, plus not really be a model candidate for the evangelicals. He did make considerable inroads with blue collar workers and black and brown minorities.

2020 may well be nothing more than the fruits of four years of non-stop character assassination against Donald Trump. If democrats succeed in making a martyr out of Trump, and looking like a banana republic in the process, which they seem to be hell bent on doing, the republican opportunities in 2022 and 2024 could open up. If democrats give in to the extremist agenda of the AOC wing of the party, that door could open wide. Taking the senate in 2022 could be tough, with what looks like 20 republican and 13 democrat seats up. But the HOR is very doable in 2022, and 2024 could be theirs for the taking, across the board, particularly if the democrat economic policies are even half as catastrophic as I expect them to be.

But first republicans have to decide who they are and who they want to be. Democrats have a very clear idea where they want to take the country, and I don't want to go there. But I don't know were republicans want to go, and without a credible alternative it's kind of democrats or nothing.

If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything. Republicans need to stand for something. Put together a coalition of business, fiscal, and national security conservatives, with libertarian non-interventionist foreign policy replacing neocon interventionism, give evangelicals and populists enough to keep them onboard (and at least with the populists, if democrats do martyr Trump it won't take a lot), and solidify and broaden gains with blue collar and minority voters. Put together a Contract that addresses the key issues for each of those groups, and start the education process now. Stand for something and you can win. Be Mitch McConnell and you can't. And there's just too much at stake.

Since Biden will be offering a path to citizenship for an estimated 11 million illegal aliens currently in the country, the Republican party is done winning national elections unless they find a way to win a significant portion of those folks. The Dems won't even have to cheat anymore.

(01-16-2021 02:40 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(01-16-2021 11:54 AM)Bull_In_Exile Wrote:  Maybe, but I have a feeling you're going to see the left go full on crazy in the next two years and that may bring the party back together. Trumpsters are going to have to accept that Nikki Haley is a better choice than Biden or Harris in 2024.

Interesting point.

Peter Zeihan has made the point that the republican coalition has historically been easier to old together because there were not a lot of internal squabbles--fiscal conservatives got along okay with national defense conservatives and they both got along okay with evangelicals--whereas democrats have a number of groups with at least some interests opposed to each other--environmentalists versus unions, blacks versus hispanics, and both blacks and hispanics tended to be religious conservatives opposed a lot of LGBT issues.

What has happened with the populists is they don't like anybody else.

Holding on to the populists may be problematic, unless democrats make a martyr out of Trump, which for some reason they seem determined to do. But like evangelicals, populists don't really have anywhere else to go. They're not going to vote democrat, and going third party or staying at home is giving the election away.

Thats an overstatement in the same manner that Zeihans point that the "national security" portion of the Republican Party is being forced out. I see no issue with the national security strategy of Trump---nor do I imagine the typical rank and file soldiers being sent to sh--hole countries to fight with ridiculous rules of engagements have any issue with Trump.

What the democrat coalition had in common was not agreement (we already see that once they actually have begun trying to govern). No, what the Democrats had was complete unity in "Orange Man Bad". The advantage of being able to simply unite around "being against" something shifts to Republicans in 2022 as the vote becomes a referendum on Biden and the Democrat controlled congress.

If the democrats overreach on the economy and make a banana republic martyr out of Donald Trump, there will be plenty of opportunities for republicans.

(01-16-2021 04:18 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  Since Biden will be offering a path to citizenship for an estimated 11 million illegal aliens currently in the country, the Republican party is done winning national elections unless they find a way to win a significant portion of those folks. The Dems won't even have to cheat anymore.

That's why hanging on to those two Georgia senate seats was so important--far more important than filing a bunch of unwindable lawsuits over ballots that once in the box were pretty much going to stay there.

But republicans are not noted for not being idiots.