(01-07-2021 11:21 AM)1845 Bear Wrote: I think that having all the P5's scheduling 0-1 non-con games had a lot to do with the spike in how many teams were ranked.
Instead of Auburn being 6-4 and Wisconsin being 3-3 they likely finish the regular season 8-4. Additionally some of the G5's pick up an extra loss in non-con. Knowing how the rankings usually go based on loss count and what league you play in we'd see far more P5's in there than now since they'd be beating each other up less.
Some P5s, such as Auburn and Wisconsin might have finished at 8-4, and some of the G5s might have picked up another loss, but it would have depended on how well the non-P5 teams would have played in their P5 OOC games. The non-P5 teams have tended to win a higher % of their games vs. the P5s during the regular season than they have in bowl games.
Notably, in 2019,
the teams in the top three non-P5 conferences won 38% of their OOC games vs. P5 teams, including ND. In comparison,
the teams in the P5 conferences won 45% of their OOC games vs. P5 opponents, including ND.
Quote:Final 2019 records vs. Power 5 non-conference opponents/Notre Dame:
SEC 9-6
Mountain West 9-10
Notre Dame 7-2
Big 12 6-4
American 6-13
Pac-12 5-5
Big Ten 4-5
Sun Belt 4-8
ACC 4-14*
BYU 2-2
One thing is certain - - 2020 was an anomaly and an asterisk season, and this makes comparisons with prior and later seasons very difficult.
However, there were a few factors this season that may support the hypothesis that the upward trend of the non-P5 teams has extended into the 2020 season.
--Even though the AAC wasn't as strong in 2020 as they were in 2019, this was compensated for by an increased number of Sun Belt (Coastal Carolina (11-1), Louisiana (10-1), and Appalachian State (9-3)) and Independent teams (BYU (11-1), Liberty (10-1; 2-1 vs. P5), & Army (9-3)).
--The presence of 11 non-P5 teams in the most recent 2020 regular season AP top 30 were non P5s suggests the possibility of a broader trend toward increased parity.
--The number of ranked non-P5 teams in 2020 has been highly consistent with the pattern observed in 2018 (6 ranked non-P5 teams) and 2019 (7 ranked non-P5 teams).
.
There seem to be three major possibilities, going forward:
1. The multi-year increase from 2 to 4 to 6+ top 25 non-P5 teams may continue over the next few years
(although not necessarily at the previously observed pace).
--If the trend does continue, it will be interesting to see if it eventually levels off at a higher number of non-P5 top 25 teams.
2. The somewhat lackluster performances of the top AAC and MWC teams in 2020 might be an indication that the number of ranked non-P5 teams may level off at 2018-2020 levels (6-7 ranked non-P5s).
3. Any of several possible multi-year trends might unfold (e.g., spikes followed by downturns, a repeating cycle, etc.), depending on
viewership, attendance, revenue, etc.