(02-10-2021 11:11 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  Updated for 2/10 - Memphis is the only team with a big jump up. Tulsa, UCF and Temple all with big drops back since my last update. WSU keeps dropping back even when winning thanks to close games.

Going to be lots of weird jumps and hard lefts. Some teams have played fewer total games than some teams have win inside of conferences. Some teams will be hitting 25+ games and some may finish with like 15 going into tournaments. It seems like some teams are hurting because they simply haven't played, and some are rewarded for playing a few but doing quite well.

It's going to be a crazy shake out. If by the last week of February we don't see some synchronization it just isn't going to happen this year. I think that means top 75 teams will be making the sheet and then it will all come down to what the committee wants and the numbers will be tortured even more to get it than usual. Lots of well covid, op outs, missed critical games, so and so is hot right now. This player or that player struggled but has played well and they look like a different team now that he is playing well, etc.

Think Sampson sees it that way as well which is why he went on his little rant the other day, he sees us getting narrated out of the story lines.

UPDATE:

Recent trends:

1. The number of non-P5 teams in the NET Top 50 has increased from 14 in mid-January to 17.

2. The two non-P5 conferences with the most NET Top 50 teams are now the MWC and the BEC with 4 Top 50 teams apiece.

3. The ACC has 6 Top 50 teams, the Big Ten has 10, the Big 12 has 7, the PAC-12 has 4, and the SEC has 6.

Top 50 Teams by Conference:

AAC:

#5 Houston (16-2)


Atlantic 10:

#37 VCU (14-4)

#40 St. Bonaventure (10-2)

#41 Saint Louis (9-3)


BEC:

#9 Villanova

#29 Creighton

#32 Xavier

#46 Seton Hall


MWC:

#22 San Diego State

#36 Boise State

#47 Colorado State

#50 Utah State


MVC:

#12 Loyola Chicago (15-3)

#30 Drake (17-1)


Patriot:

#13 Colgate


WCC:

#2 Gonzaga

#27 BYU

Update 2/11-

Couple of notes:
WSU moves back to Top 75 making them a Q1/Q2 game. Likely getting a lot of help from their win over Ole miss who has beaten two Top 11 teams in the last 2 games.

Tulane moves to 160 officially making all conferences at least a Q3 game (though if Tulane falls even one spot then a Home game vs them becomes Q4).

Alright, I'll weigh in from Patriot League territory.

How the eff is Colgate #11 and Navy #96?
Because of Patriot League decisions, only Navy and Army (due to the inherent institutional physical missions) have played ooc. Colgate's all PL schedule has them that high. Navy is 3-1 ooc, beating @Georgetown, GWU, and Mt St Marys, losing only at Maryland.
PL Colgate is 9-1, Navy 8-1.
Quad 1, Navy is 0-1, Colgate 0-0
Quad 2 Colgate 2-0, Navy 1-0
Quad 3 Navy 5-1, Colgate 3-1
Quad 4 Navy 5-0, Colgate 4-0

If those two meet in the PL final, and Navy wins Colgate should be at large? But if Colgate beats Navy, Navy isnt even an NIT team?

I'm not even saying PL is anything but a one bid conference...but the difference between #11 and #96 is a loss at NET #36?

(02-17-2021 09:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Alright, I'll weigh in from Patriot League territory.

How the eff is Colgate #11 and Navy #96?
Because of Patriot League decisions, only Navy and Army (due to the inherent institutional physical missions) have played ooc. Colgate's all PL schedule has them that high. Navy is 3-1 ooc, beating @Georgetown, GWU, and Mt St Marys, losing only at Maryland.
PL Colgate is 9-1, Navy 8-1.
Quad 1, Navy is 0-1, Colgate 0-0
Quad 2 Colgate 2-0, Navy 1-0
Quad 3 Navy 5-1, Colgate 3-1
Quad 4 Navy 5-0, Colgate 4-0

If those two meet in the PL final, and Navy wins Colgate should be at large? But if Colgate beats Navy, Navy isnt even an NIT team?

I'm not even saying PL is anything but a one bid conference...but the difference between #11 and #96 is a loss at NET #36?

That... is bizarre. It's pretty shady IMO that the NCAA doesn't make their formula public. NET does supposedly take predictive metrics into account as well, right? I guess that could explain some of the disparity. Colgate is ranked #99 in Kenpom, while Navy is ranked #167. Also, Colgate is ranked #77 in the Barttorvik T-rank and Navy is #140.

Wonder if there is a math wizard out there that can come up with a rough idea of how the NCAA is calculating this mess.

BTW, I do like hearing updates on Navy basketball. I think 99% of AAC fans on this board will be rooting for Navy to win the Patriot League every year. Would like to see more games played between Navy and AAC opponents in the future.

(02-17-2021 09:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Alright, I'll weigh in from Patriot League territory.

How the eff is Colgate #11 and Navy #96?
Because of Patriot League decisions, only Navy and Army (due to the inherent institutional physical missions) have played ooc. Colgate's all PL schedule has them that high. Navy is 3-1 ooc, beating @Georgetown, GWU, and Mt St Marys, losing only at Maryland.
PL Colgate is 9-1, Navy 8-1.
Quad 1, Navy is 0-1, Colgate 0-0
Quad 2 Colgate 2-0, Navy 1-0
Quad 3 Navy 5-1, Colgate 3-1
Quad 4 Navy 5-0, Colgate 4-0

If those two meet in the PL final, and Navy wins Colgate should be at large? But if Colgate beats Navy, Navy isnt even an NIT team?

I'm not even saying PL is anything but a one bid conference...but the difference between #11 and #96 is a loss at NET #36?

Haven't looked at either team's W-L in depth, but what immediately comes to mind are efficiency and margin of victory. If Colgate is crapping on everybody in the Patriot League, and Navy is simply winning (or worse, winning close games) that would account for the disparity. If Colgate hits 3's, shoots FTs, greatly out rebounds teams, etc that would be part of it as well.

The lack of OOC opportunities is definitely benefitting them as well though

(02-18-2021 08:03 AM)Nameless Wrote:  

(02-17-2021 09:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Alright, I'll weigh in from Patriot League territory.

How the eff is Colgate #11 and Navy #96?
Because of Patriot League decisions, only Navy and Army (due to the inherent institutional physical missions) have played ooc. Colgate's all PL schedule has them that high. Navy is 3-1 ooc, beating @Georgetown, GWU, and Mt St Marys, losing only at Maryland.
PL Colgate is 9-1, Navy 8-1.
Quad 1, Navy is 0-1, Colgate 0-0
Quad 2 Colgate 2-0, Navy 1-0
Quad 3 Navy 5-1, Colgate 3-1
Quad 4 Navy 5-0, Colgate 4-0

If those two meet in the PL final, and Navy wins Colgate should be at large? But if Colgate beats Navy, Navy isnt even an NIT team?

I'm not even saying PL is anything but a one bid conference...but the difference between #11 and #96 is a loss at NET #36?

Haven't looked at either team's W-L in depth, but what immediately comes to mind are efficiency and margin of victory. If Colgate is crapping on everybody in the Patriot League, and Navy is simply winning (or worse, winning close games) that would account for the disparity. If Colgate hits 3's, shoots FTs, greatly out rebounds teams, etc that would be part of it as well.

The lack of OOC opportunities is definitely benefitting them as well though

MOV probably a big part of it. I knew Colgate opened their season BLOWING OUT Army then losing a close one. Looking again, the Raiders have a couple more 40+ point wins in addition to that first big win. Navy's loss to Maryland was big and none of our wins have been big MOV.

Without better understanding the efficiencies metrics...Colgate probably benefits from 3pt and rebounds, I don't know about FTs. Navy probably a mixed bag - FT%age should be good, and I want to say we generally out-rebound (but not "greatly"). Not a 3pt-heavy offense.

(02-18-2021 09:41 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(02-18-2021 08:03 AM)Nameless Wrote:  

(02-17-2021 09:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Alright, I'll weigh in from Patriot League territory.

How the eff is Colgate #11 and Navy #96?
Because of Patriot League decisions, only Navy and Army (due to the inherent institutional physical missions) have played ooc. Colgate's all PL schedule has them that high. Navy is 3-1 ooc, beating @Georgetown, GWU, and Mt St Marys, losing only at Maryland.
PL Colgate is 9-1, Navy 8-1.
Quad 1, Navy is 0-1, Colgate 0-0
Quad 2 Colgate 2-0, Navy 1-0
Quad 3 Navy 5-1, Colgate 3-1
Quad 4 Navy 5-0, Colgate 4-0

If those two meet in the PL final, and Navy wins Colgate should be at large? But if Colgate beats Navy, Navy isnt even an NIT team?

I'm not even saying PL is anything but a one bid conference...but the difference between #11 and #96 is a loss at NET #36?

Haven't looked at either team's W-L in depth, but what immediately comes to mind are efficiency and margin of victory. If Colgate is crapping on everybody in the Patriot League, and Navy is simply winning (or worse, winning close games) that would account for the disparity. If Colgate hits 3's, shoots FTs, greatly out rebounds teams, etc that would be part of it as well.

The lack of OOC opportunities is definitely benefitting them as well though

MOV probably a big part of it. I knew Colgate opened their season BLOWING OUT Army then losing a close one. Looking again, the Raiders have a couple more 40+ point wins in addition to that first big win. Navy's loss to Maryland was big and none of our wins have been big MOV.

Without better understanding the efficiencies metrics...Colgate probably benefits from 3pt and rebounds, I don't know about FTs. Navy probably a mixed bag - FT%age should be good, and I want to say we generally out-rebound (but not "greatly"). Not a 3pt-heavy offense.

Yeah, I'm not gonna pretend like I'm an expert on all of the efficiency metrics lol. Especially since iirc, that's where the NCAA isn't overtly clear themselves, and is the main reason for a lot of people's skepticism about the NET truly being an objective metric, and not just another way of propping up the big guys at the expense of the small ones. There's a ton of other metrics they use as well, like 2pt %, I think turnover % (maybe even assist:turnover ratio), etc. Again, not going to pretend to be an expert here, but there are a ton of factors at play.

If I had to guess, only having 1 data point against a top 40 team and getting blown out probably isn't doing you guys any favors. I think the committee caps MOV at 10 to prevent teams from running up the score, but obviously a team's efficiency metrics go through the roof when they win by 40, and vice versa when they lose. NET may be a little skeptical of placing Navy higher simply because getting blown out by a top 40 makes it seem as if you guys can't compete with similar teams.

Again though, these are really just my best guesses based on what I do know about NET. Hope you guys smash Colgate in the conference tourney and make the NCAA tourney

Maybe we should just use RPI...

(02-22-2021 02:22 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Maybe we should just use RPI...

Wichita State 22 ... sign me up

(02-22-2021 02:22 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Maybe we should just use RPI...

If Navy doesn't get a 1 seed... The system is rigged!

(02-22-2021 02:22 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Maybe we should just use RPI...

Navy a 1, Houston a 2, Wichita a 6 and SMU probably on the bubble. Yah make this happen!

Updated NET going into Selection Sunday (3/14):

Houston - 5
Memphis - 52
SMU - 65
Wichita St - 72
UCF - 103
Cincinnati - 115
Tulsa - 134
Temple - 167
Tulane - 168
ECU -180
USF - 205

Can’t wait to see who the unfortunate 15 seed gets matched up with a No.2 seed like Colgate later today.

(03-14-2021 08:55 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  Updated NET going into Selection Sunday (3/14):

Houston - 5
Memphis - 52

I know the odds don't look good, but I really hope Memphis gets in.