(01-20-2021 07:48 PM)Persian-Militant Wrote: (12-26-2020 10:58 PM)TardisCaptain Wrote: Short answer: Not unless the Mountain West is very desperate for members.
The hypothetical scenario for your 'short answer' may be a reality within the next 3 years...
A couple of P5 TV contracts are up for renewal and they may start the merry go round of conferences trading teams due to desperation, as seen just under a decade ago...
IMHO any desperation from the MWC would be if they lost 4-6 members. I don't think that there will be that much P5 shuffling.
But if the MWC found itself 4-6 members short I think that the interests would be in this order.
Any far west AAC schools left behind (SMU? Tulsa?) I doubt they would go any further east. If the core of the MWC is still there then these schools might be interested. And no the AAC is not moving up to an auto-qualifier conference en mass. Just like I doubt the entire MWC would move up. The power conferences will take what they want, if they want it, and leave the rest behind.
Any other Texas FBS schools willing to move over. (no particular order: UTEP, UTSA, Rice, NTexas, Texas St). I don't think there is any interest in any Arkansas or Louisiana schools. (I'm also sensing a pattern here)
While these are their top choices, it is also possible that a SW based conference would evolve that could take all/most of these schools out of play.
New Mexico St (already FBS) and would probably choose to be in a league that has New Mexico in it. If NM is still in the MWC and if there are still openings, then this is a lock.
Now the FCS schools will be considered.
If a lot of California schools left the MWC, then the FCS schools in Cali may be targeted first. If not, then perhaps the two Montana schools and Idaho. Depending upon the need it could be a combination of both.
Northern Arizona gets you into a state you don't have any schools in. But I don't know if NAU could make the jump. Possible.
Weber St has some good to ok facilities. But if Utah St is still in the league then it would be very unlikely.
Portland St would get you into a new market, but they have no football stadium that would work for FBS. So unlikely.
If Dixie St changed it's name to Utah Tech and if they have a lot of success and plans to expand the stadium, they could be considered. But I think that this school is probably 10 years away at the earliest for possible FBS. So unlikely... now.
Southern Utah, Eastern Washington, Idaho St and Northern Colorado will not be considered. Idaho St is the only one with a marketable name, but very poor population, support and facilities.
Once these are all played out and if there is still a need, now you can talk about any of the Dakota schools in the Mountain West. Likelihood, very low.