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Realignment Scenario - Shuffling of the Order
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #1
Realignment Scenario - Shuffling of the Order
It's time for another wacky scenario...

Or is it wacky?

When the Big 12 GOR ends in a few years, there is an interesting opportunity.

1. Big 12 stability is not what it needs to be, but it's been worse. Could they be used to acquire PAC 12 schools and reconstitute as a stronger league? Is it still possible their biggest pieces would be taken by other leagues?

Let's consider the impact of the pandemic as well as the conflict that was or may even still be present in the Big Ten.

Now, it might be a natural move for Nebraska to move to the Big 12, but I'm not certain the Big 12 is going to be there. The addition of Nebraska and maybe one more will not seriously affect the overall payout. NU dominates a region that already has a lot of Big 12 penetration and their national audience has dwindled a bit since their product has weakened. In short, NU needs a boost and the Big 12 needs a lot more.

Let's also consider the Big Ten was more than happy to change its rule for Ohio State. When Nebraska wanted to schedule a non-conference game with very reasonable conditions, the league balked. Interesting.

2. The PAC 12 has historically been fairly stubborn. They like their association and they like their standards. Would a handful of key players move to a league like the Big 12?

I think it's more likely for the PAC 12 to experiment with different leadership before key members abandon ship. There are a few reasons for this. The travel would be worse than it is, and certain members would lose political control. I'm sure they would love to have Texas come aboard and Oklahoma too, but they don't want schools like that to maintain a voting bloc that could call the shots.

What does the PAC 12 do? In the long run, I think they budge on TV rights a little more. More fundamentally, I think they align themselves with whatever separation is coming within FBS and rely on the difference in funding to keep them afloat. Winning big in football and basketball does not appear to be their goal any longer so I think they'll settle for fully funded and somewhat competitive.

3. Barring a merger with the Big 12, I don't think PAC 12 schools will make any drastic changes at this time. I think any merger with the Big 12 is unlikely though for the same reasons I outlined above...travel, standards, and political control.

With that said, the powers of the Big 12 need greater stability and the increased money wouldn't hurt.

I think the SEC has an opportunity here to really increase their market share, but what do they have to give up to achieve it? Years ago, the leaders of the Big 12 wanted to explore a merger with the SEC. That won't happen, but something dramatic still could.

In order to secure the powers of the Big 12, there is the possibility that several current Big 12 members would be taken. It's an old theory, but it checks out.

The problem, of course, is that the SEC will only desire to grow so large at once, and they may want to keep themselves open to options in the East. At the forefront of it all is the monetary consideration. The SEC will soon finalize a deal with ABC/ESPN that will significantly increase payments. Is there an expansion from the Big 12 that's a foregone conclusion as a part of that deal? I tend to doubt that simply because there's no ink dry on the future moves of Oklahoma or Texas. Even if promises have been made, these are moves that have not taken place.

4. Consider the overall weakness of the ACC.

They have a network now and it apparently did well, but these linear networks are living on borrowed time. They're profitable at the moment, but the technology and the market is changing. Streaming will dominate in the not too distant future which means linear channels will have fewer customers even in the best of environments.

What the ACC still lacks is money. They need money to compete and unless ESPN is a giving mood, they have no reason to make any significant increases to the ACC payments.

UNLESS...the ACC is making some significant additions. At that point, the contract could open up and the playing field be leveled a bit. It would have to be leveled a lot though because the SEC will soon grow their lead.

5. Most of this would lead to a stalemate or possibly even the expansion of the Big 12 with a school like Nebraska and then we go on with status quo more or less.

6. What if one of the assumptions if off? What difference would that make?

Let me theorize...

If Nebraska is unhappy in the Big 12 then Oklahoma has less and less of a reason to want to go there. There are other disadvantages to the Big Ten for Oklahoma, but losing the opportunity to partner with Nebraska would be a serious issue.

Does that mean Nebraska would go back to the Big 12? They might be willing to do that, but that's probably not their first choice simply because the issues that led to their departure haven't really gone away. Texas still wields too much influence, old rivals like Colorado and Missouri aren't coming back, their talent issues won't change significantly, and they would be taking a pay cut.

To that last point, even a Big 12 with additions of Nebraska and one other decent school aren't going to make up the gap with the SEC or Big Ten.

What if Nebraska and Oklahoma decided to move together, however? What if they instituted a plan that altered the dynamics of the current Big 12 and put everything on its head?

Remember the old Big 8? The old Big 8 schools do and they would prefer to have it back.

Remember the old SWC? The old SWC schools do and the primary schools in TX probably don't care where they're housed as long as they get to play each other. It's pretty far from one side of TX to the other anyway.

The Big 12 has been an awkward marriage and perhaps it's time to put it out of its misery, but not in the way we've always theorized.

It's been about 10 years now since the SEC tried to scoop up Oklahoma and Texas A&M in one move. It didn't quite work out, but a lot of groundwork was laid nonetheless.

What if Texas led a new delegation into the PAC 12? Texas, Texas Tech, Houston, and TCU represent an interesting opportunity that the PAC 12 should be willing to jump on. In other words, the PAC 16 could be reborn with a Texas-centric squad moving over.

What if Nebraska, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Iowa State moved into the SEC? That's a league that would incorporate 5 teams from the old Big 8. Throw Arkansas into that division and they're all fairly compact.

But what if ACC schools were still on the docket? After all, the Big Ten has just lost a member and needs to expand anyway.

Midwest: Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa State
West: Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn
East: Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Louisville
Atlantic: Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Virginia Tech, NC State

The Big Ten has an opportunity to grow as well.

West: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois
Central: Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
East: Pittsburgh, Penn State, Syracuse, Rutgers, Boston College
South: North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Maryland, Notre Dame

Thoughts?
12-10-2020 01:56 AM
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BePcr07 Online
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Post: #2
RE: Realignment Scenario - Shuffling of the Order
In the B1G, I might switch Notre Dame and Penn St. I also might switch Arkansas and Texas A&M. Might not.
12-10-2020 08:28 AM
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