ken d
Hall of Famer
Posts: 17,419
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 1226
I Root For: college sports
Location: Raleigh
|
2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
For all games in 2020, the home team has won 61.4% of the time. However, they have only covered the spread 48.8% of the time. Keep in mind that this sample includes all P5 games OOC against G5s, independents and FCS teams, nearly all of which are played on the home field of the P5. In all games, home teams have outscored visitors on average by 31-27.
For the 125 Pickem games, favorites have only covered the spread 46.4% of the time. When spreads are from 0-6.5 pts, that drops to 43.1%. But it jumps to 56.1% when spreads are between 7-13.5 pts. Their worst performance has been in games where the spread is 14 pts or more, covering only 38.5% of those.
But ours is a small sample. When we look at results from all games, the numbers look as we would expect. Favorites have covered 49.9% of the time. Below 7 pts, that's 47.9% and from 7-13.5 pts it is 50.5%. At spreads of 14 pts or more, favorites have covered 51.2%.
Armed with this data, here is the slate for Week 14. I have increased the number of games to try to stay ahead of cancellations as we move into the home stretch of the season race.
****************************************************************
Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5
Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points
**********************************************************
Good luck, everyone.
(This post was last modified: 12-03-2020 11:52 AM by ken d.)
|
|
11-29-2020 04:36 PM |
|
Kaplony
Palmetto State Deplorable
Posts: 25,393
Joined: Apr 2013
I Root For: Newberry
Location: SC
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Friday 9PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5
Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5
61 points
|
|
11-30-2020 10:08 AM |
|
quo vadis
Legend
Posts: 50,142
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 2415
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: New Orleans
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Picks in Bold:
Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Friday 9PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2020 06:30 AM by quo vadis.)
|
|
11-30-2020 10:31 AM |
|
panite
Heisman
Posts: 6,216
Joined: Feb 2006
Reputation: 221
I Root For: Owls-SC-RU-Navy
Location:
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
(11-29-2020 04:36 PM)ken d Wrote: For all games in 2020, the home team has won 61.4% of the time. However, they have only covered the spread 48.8% of the time. Keep in mind that this sample includes all P5 games OOC against G5s, independents and FCS teams, nearly all of which are played on the home field of the P5. In all games, home teams have outscored visitors on average by 31-27.
For the 125 Pickem games, favorites have only covered the spread 46.4% of the time. When spreads are from 0-6.5 pts, that drops to 43.1%. But it jumps to 56.1% when spreads are between 7-13.5 pts. Their worst performance has been in games where the spread is 14 pts or more, covering only 38.5% of those.
But ours is a small sample. When we look at results from all games, the numbers look as we would expect. Favorites have covered 49.9% of the time. Below 7 pts, that's 47.9% and from 7-13.5 pts it is 50.5%. At spreads of 14 pts or more, favorites have covered 51.2%.
Armed with this data, here is the slate for Week 14. I have increased the number of games to try to stay ahead of cancellations as we move into the home stretch of the season race.
****************************************************************
Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Friday 9PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5
Tiebreaker - Total points - 35
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5
Remember to pick total points
**********************************************************
Good luck, everyone.
|
|
11-30-2020 06:48 PM |
|
zibby
All American
Posts: 2,781
Joined: Jun 2005
Reputation: 180
I Root For:
Location:
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Appalachian St -3.5
Washington St +13.5
Georgia Tech +8.5
Clemson -22.5
Boston College +6.5
South Carolina +12.5
Ohio State -22.5
Penn State -9.5
Florida -17.5
Arkansas +3.5
Michigan -5.5
Syracuse +33.5
Iowa State -7.5
Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M -4.5
Texas -8.5
Tiebreaker
Liberty +6.5
Remember to pick total points
61
(This post was last modified: 12-03-2020 08:13 AM by zibby.)
|
|
12-02-2020 11:11 AM |
|
schmolik
CSNBB's Big 10 Cheerleader
Posts: 8,687
Joined: Sep 2019
Reputation: 651
I Root For: UIUC, PSU, Nova
Location: Philadelphia Suburbs
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Louisiana +3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
NC State -8.5
Clemson -22.5
Virginia -6.5
South Carolina +12.5
Ohio State -22.5
Rutgers +9.5
Tennessee +17.5
Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan CANCELLED
Syracuse +33.5
Iowa State -7.5
Wisconsin -11.5
Auburn +4.5
Kansas State +8.5
Tiebreaker
Coastal Carolina -6.5 (50 TP)
|
|
12-02-2020 03:58 PM |
|
copycat
Why ask why?
Posts: 2,022
Joined: Jul 2006
Reputation: 219
I Root For: Georgia Tech
Location: Marietta, GA
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Friday 9PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5
Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5
Total Points: 80
|
|
12-03-2020 01:19 AM |
|
Buckminster Fuller
2nd String
Posts: 314
Joined: May 2013
Reputation: 132
I Root For: Wake Forest
Location:
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Appalachian St -3.5
Washington St +13.5
Georgia Tech +8.5
Clemson -22.5
Boston College +6.5
South Carolina +12.5
Florida State @ Duke - cancelled
Ohio State -22.5
Penn State -9.5
Florida -17.5
Arkansas +3.5
Michigan -5.5
Notre Dame -33.5
Iowa State -7.5
Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M -4.5
Texas -8.5
Liberty +6.5 (61 points)
|
|
12-03-2020 05:27 AM |
|
Wahoowa84
All American
Posts: 3,482
Joined: Oct 2017
Reputation: 501
I Root For: UVa
Location:
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
App State
Southern Cal
NC State
Clemson
Virginia
Kentucky
Ohio State
Penn State
Florida
Arkansas
Notre Dame
Iowa State
Indiana
Texas A&M
Texas
|
|
12-03-2020 09:57 PM |
|
IWokeUpLikeThis
Hall of Famer
Posts: 13,839
Joined: Jul 2014
Reputation: 1466
I Root For: NIU, Chicago St
Location:
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5
|
|
12-03-2020 10:32 PM |
|
XLance
Hall of Famer
Posts: 14,354
Joined: Mar 2008
Reputation: 782
I Root For: Carolina
Location: Greensboro, NC
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
(11-29-2020 04:36 PM)ken d Wrote: Appalachian St
Washington St
NC State
Clemson
Boston College
Kentucky
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Michigan State
Rutgers
Florida
Arkansas
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse
Iowa State
Indiana
Texas A&M
Texas
Tiebreaker
Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points
58 points
|
|
12-04-2020 05:31 AM |
|
TyBull
1st String
Posts: 1,142
Joined: May 2007
Reputation: 54
I Root For: USF / GA Tech
Location:
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5
Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled (0) Points if it is cancelled
Remember to pick total points
|
|
12-04-2020 09:03 AM |
|
ken d
Hall of Famer
Posts: 17,419
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 1226
I Root For: college sports
Location: Raleigh
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5
|
|
12-04-2020 09:49 AM |
|
ChrisLords
Heisman
Posts: 8,664
Joined: Jun 2007
Reputation: 336
I Root For: Virginia Tech
Location: Earth
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
****************************************************************
Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5
Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points
**********************************************************
|
|
12-04-2020 12:01 PM |
|
Shannon Panther
Heisman
Posts: 6,879
Joined: Apr 2005
Reputation: 373
I Root For: Pitt
Location: Nashville, TN
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5
Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points
|
|
12-05-2020 06:11 AM |
|
Shannon Panther
Heisman
Posts: 6,879
Joined: Apr 2005
Reputation: 373
I Root For: Pitt
Location: Nashville, TN
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
Finals with spread
Louisiana 27.5 - Appalachian St 21 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech 21.5 - NC State 23
Clemson 45 - Virginia Tech 32.5
Boston College 38.5 - Virginia 43
South Carolina 30.5 - Kentucky 41
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State 52 - Michigan State 34.5
Penn State 23 - Rutgers 16.5
Florida 31 - Tennessee 36.5
Arkansas 51.5 - Missouri 50
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse 54.5 - Notre Dame 45
West Virginia 13.5 - Iowa State 45
Indiana 25.5 - Wisconsin 6
Texas A&M 31 - Auburn 24.5
Texas 69 - Kansas State 39.5
Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points
|
|
12-05-2020 09:36 PM |
|
ken d
Hall of Famer
Posts: 17,419
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 1226
I Root For: college sports
Location: Raleigh
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
(12-05-2020 09:36 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote: Finals with spread
Louisiana 24 - Appalachian St 24.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech 21.5 - NC State 23
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College 38.5 - Virginia 43
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State 52 - Michigan State 34.5
Penn State 23 - Rutgers 16.5
Florida 31 - Tennessee 36.5
Arkansas 51.5 - Missouri 50
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse 54.5 - Notre Dame 45
West Virginia 13.5 - Iowa State 45
Indiana 25.5 - Wisconsin 6
Texas A&M 31 - Auburn 24.5
Texas 69 - Kansas State 39.5
Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points
App State was giving the points, not getting them. Louisiana covered the spread.
|
|
12-06-2020 09:15 AM |
|
ken d
Hall of Famer
Posts: 17,419
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 1226
I Root For: college sports
Location: Raleigh
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
With one game remaining to be played in Week 14 the final results are still up in the air. The USC game, originally scheduled for Friday night, was postponed until tonight.
We do know one place for sure. Wahoowa84 can not be caught. So far he is a remarkable 11-3 and can get to 12-3 if USC covers against Wazzou. But the remaining places aren't settled yet. Kaplony. at 10-4, locks in 2nd place with a USC win. But XLance can tie him at 10 wins if Wazzou covers.
I'll post the results as soon as the game is over, but I'll probably try to get the slate for the final week of the season race before then. I'm waiting on start times and point spreads, which seem to be settled later and later in this wacky season.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2020 03:03 PM by ken d.)
|
|
12-06-2020 02:50 PM |
|
ken d
Hall of Famer
Posts: 17,419
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 1226
I Root For: college sports
Location: Raleigh
|
RE: 2020 Pickem Contest Week 14
With USC's win over Washington State tonight, Kaplony finishes in solo second place at 11-4, just behind Wahoowa84's 12-3. IWokeUpThisWay and TyBull finish in third place at 10-5.
With one week to go, these are the Top Five in the season race by Win%:
.517 zibby
.503 IWokeUpThisWay
.503 Shannon Panther
.497 Buckminster Fuller
.482 panite
To put that another way, to catch zibby this week his closest pursuers need to have two more correct picks than he does. With an 18 game slate (less any cancellations not yet announced), that is certainly very doable, so zibby can't rest easy yet. Any of the Top Five still have a reasonable chance of coming out on top.
|
|
12-06-2020 10:41 PM |
|