For all games in 2020, the home team has won 61.4% of the time. However, they have only covered the spread 48.8% of the time. Keep in mind that this sample includes all P5 games OOC against G5s, independents and FCS teams, nearly all of which are played on the home field of the P5. In all games, home teams have outscored visitors on average by 31-27.

For the 125 Pickem games, favorites have only covered the spread 46.4% of the time. When spreads are from 0-6.5 pts, that drops to 43.1%. But it jumps to 56.1% when spreads are between 7-13.5 pts. Their worst performance has been in games where the spread is 14 pts or more, covering only 38.5% of those.

But ours is a small sample. When we look at results from all games, the numbers look as we would expect. Favorites have covered 49.9% of the time. Below 7 pts, that's 47.9% and from 7-13.5 pts it is 50.5%. At spreads of 14 pts or more, favorites have covered 51.2%.

Armed with this data, here is the slate for Week 14. I have increased the number of games to try to stay ahead of cancellations as we move into the home stretch of the season race.

****************************************************************

Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5

Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points

**********************************************************

Good luck, everyone.

Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Friday 9PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5

Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5

61 points

Picks in Bold:

Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Friday 9PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5

(11-29-2020 04:36 PM)ken d Wrote:  For all games in 2020, the home team has won 61.4% of the time. However, they have only covered the spread 48.8% of the time. Keep in mind that this sample includes all P5 games OOC against G5s, independents and FCS teams, nearly all of which are played on the home field of the P5. In all games, home teams have outscored visitors on average by 31-27.

For the 125 Pickem games, favorites have only covered the spread 46.4% of the time. When spreads are from 0-6.5 pts, that drops to 43.1%. But it jumps to 56.1% when spreads are between 7-13.5 pts. Their worst performance has been in games where the spread is 14 pts or more, covering only 38.5% of those.

But ours is a small sample. When we look at results from all games, the numbers look as we would expect. Favorites have covered 49.9% of the time. Below 7 pts, that's 47.9% and from 7-13.5 pts it is 50.5%. At spreads of 14 pts or more, favorites have covered 51.2%.

Armed with this data, here is the slate for Week 14. I have increased the number of games to try to stay ahead of cancellations as we move into the home stretch of the season race.

****************************************************************

Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Friday 9PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5

Tiebreaker - Total points - 35
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5
Remember to pick total points

**********************************************************

Good luck, everyone.

Appalachian St -3.5
Washington St +13.5
Georgia Tech +8.5
Clemson -22.5
Boston College +6.5
South Carolina +12.5
Ohio State -22.5
Penn State -9.5
Florida -17.5
Arkansas +3.5
Michigan -5.5
Syracuse +33.5
Iowa State -7.5
Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M -4.5
Texas -8.5

Tiebreaker
Liberty +6.5
Remember to pick total points
61

Louisiana +3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
NC State -8.5
Clemson -22.5
Virginia -6.5
South Carolina +12.5
Ohio State -22.5
Rutgers +9.5
Tennessee +17.5
Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan CANCELLED
Syracuse +33.5
Iowa State -7.5
Wisconsin -11.5
Auburn +4.5
Kansas State +8.5

Tiebreaker
Coastal Carolina -6.5 (50 TP)

Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Friday 9PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5

Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5
Total Points: 80

Appalachian St -3.5
Washington St +13.5
Georgia Tech +8.5
Clemson -22.5
Boston College +6.5
South Carolina +12.5
Florida State @ Duke - cancelled
Ohio State -22.5
Penn State -9.5
Florida -17.5
Arkansas +3.5
Michigan -5.5
Notre Dame -33.5
Iowa State -7.5
Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M -4.5
Texas -8.5
Liberty +6.5 (61 points)

App State
Southern Cal
NC State
Clemson
Virginia
Kentucky
Ohio State
Penn State
Florida
Arkansas
Notre Dame
Iowa State
Indiana
Texas A&M
Texas

Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5

(11-29-2020 04:36 PM)ken d Wrote:  Appalachian St
Washington St
NC State
Clemson
Boston College
Kentucky
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Michigan State
Rutgers
Florida
Arkansas
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse
Iowa State
Indiana
Texas A&M
Texas

Tiebreaker
Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points
58 points

Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5

Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled (0) Points if it is cancelled
Remember to pick total points

Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5

****************************************************************

Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5

Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points

**********************************************************

Louisiana @ Appalachian St -3.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech @ NC State -8.5
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College @ Virginia -6.5
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State @ Michigan State +22.5
Penn State @ Rutgers +9.5
Florida @ Tennessee +17.5
Arkansas @ Missouri -3.5
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse @ Notre Dame -33.5
West Virginia @ Iowa State -7.5
Indiana @ Wisconsin -11.5
Texas A&M @ Auburn +4.5
Texas @ Kansas State +8.5

Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points

Finals with spread
Louisiana 27.5 - Appalachian St 21 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech 21.5 - NC State 23
Clemson 45 - Virginia Tech 32.5
Boston College 38.5 - Virginia 43
South Carolina 30.5 - Kentucky 41
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State 52 - Michigan State 34.5
Penn State 23 - Rutgers 16.5
Florida 31 - Tennessee 36.5
Arkansas 51.5 - Missouri 50
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse 54.5 - Notre Dame 45
West Virginia 13.5 - Iowa State 45
Indiana 25.5 - Wisconsin 6
Texas A&M 31 - Auburn 24.5
Texas 69 - Kansas State 39.5

Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points

(12-05-2020 09:36 PM)Shannon Panther Wrote:  Finals with spread
Louisiana 24 - Appalachian St 24.5 (Friday at 7PM)
Washington St @ Southern Cal -13.5 (Sunday 7:30PM)
Georgia Tech 21.5 - NC State 23
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +22.5
Boston College 38.5 - Virginia 43
South Carolina @ Kentucky -12.5
Florida State @ Duke -3.5 cancelled
Ohio State 52 - Michigan State 34.5
Penn State 23 - Rutgers 16.5
Florida 31 - Tennessee 36.5
Arkansas 51.5 - Missouri 50
Maryland @ Michigan -5.5 cancelled
Syracuse 54.5 - Notre Dame 45
West Virginia 13.5 - Iowa State 45
Indiana 25.5 - Wisconsin 6
Texas A&M 31 - Auburn 24.5
Texas 69 - Kansas State 39.5

Tiebreaker
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina -6.5 cancelled
Remember to pick total points

App State was giving the points, not getting them. Louisiana covered the spread.

With one game remaining to be played in Week 14 the final results are still up in the air. The USC game, originally scheduled for Friday night, was postponed until tonight.

We do know one place for sure. Wahoowa84 can not be caught. So far he is a remarkable 11-3 and can get to 12-3 if USC covers against Wazzou. But the remaining places aren't settled yet. Kaplony. at 10-4, locks in 2nd place with a USC win. But XLance can tie him at 10 wins if Wazzou covers.

I'll post the results as soon as the game is over, but I'll probably try to get the slate for the final week of the season race before then. I'm waiting on start times and point spreads, which seem to be settled later and later in this wacky season.

With USC's win over Washington State tonight, Kaplony finishes in solo second place at 11-4, just behind Wahoowa84's 12-3. IWokeUpThisWay and TyBull finish in third place at 10-5.

With one week to go, these are the Top Five in the season race by Win%:

.517 zibby
.503 IWokeUpThisWay
.503 Shannon Panther
.497 Buckminster Fuller
.482 panite

To put that another way, to catch zibby this week his closest pursuers need to have two more correct picks than he does. With an 18 game slate (less any cancellations not yet announced), that is certainly very doable, so zibby can't rest easy yet. Any of the Top Five still have a reasonable chance of coming out on top.