Three Man Weave has UNC Asheville finishing 2nd in the Big South. They return all 5 of their starters from last season, who all averaged double figures.
Their preview:
https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/big-...21-preview
2. UNC Asheville
Key Returners: Devon Baker, LJ Thorpe, Lavar Batts Jr., Tajion Jones, Coty Jude, Trent Stephney, Jamon Battle
Key Losses: Jeremy Peck, Jax Levitch
Key Newcomers: Evan Clayborne (NC Central), Silas Mason, BJ Marable, Raquan Brown (New Orleans)***
***Brown is awaiting a waiver to become immediately eligible
Lineup:
Outlook: How many times in college basketball history has a team returned all five starters from a squad that started only one lineup all season long? How many of those teams’ five returning starters all averaged double figures in scoring? I don’t know the answer to either of those questions, but I do know it’s 1) extremely rare and 2) the case at UNC Asheville this season. This is what Mike Morrell has been building towards during his young tenure at the program. He took over a GUTTED team in 2018 after Nick McDevitt left for Middle Tennessee – the Bulldogs were the youngest team in the country that season and it showed through when they sputtered to a 4-27 (2-14) record. Last year was a marked improvement; the Bulldogs jumped 45 spots in KenPom and finished with a more respectable 15-16 (8-10) record. This season expectations are high for the now-experienced Bulldogs – Morrell will start five juniors, all of whom can score the basketball.
Now, before we all get too excited on Asheville’s potential this season, let’s throw a little cold water on the fire. Yes, this team returns all five starters from last year. Yes, all of those players score over 10.0 PPG. However, this was still a bad basketball team in 2019-20. UNCA ranked 302nd in KenPom’s overall metrics and finished just 8-10 in the worst iteration of the Big South in recent memory. To boot, there may not have been a worse interior defensive squad in the country last season – the Bulldogs ranked 350th in eFG% and allowed the 2nd highest rate of attempts near the rim. Morrell starts four guards and a forward who has no interest in banging in the paint – if UNCA doesn’t turn a team over early in the shot clock, that team is usually going to score. So while the Bulldogs may be one of the more exciting mid-major teams to watch on offense, that doesn’t mean we should expect them to compete in the same stratosphere as Winthrop.
Indeed offense is going to be what wins UNCA ball games this year. Every player in the starting five can shoot the three and all four guards can score off the bounce. Expect a ball screen-heavy attack once again in the halfcourt and a prioritization of running in transition, particularly off steals.
Defensively, Morrell’s goal is to turn teams over, something Asheville did at the best rate in the Big South and 25th best rate in the country last season. The Bulldogs extend pressure the length of the floor and look to trap once the ball crosses the timeline.
This gamble can result in a lot of buckets going the opposite way, but it’s also susceptible to being burned often by good ball handlers and smart-passing teams. Once the ball crossed the three-point arc last season, resistance was essentially nada.
Morrell clearly had size on his mind when recruiting this offseason. He added NC Central transfer Evan Clayborne to sure-up the frontline immediately and freshmen Silas Mason and BJ Marable, two high-upside forwards. Clayborne may not start for the Bulldogs, but he will be an integral part of their rotation – he adds muscle to the frontcourt and will be the team’s lone true rim runner this season. Mason is an athletic, lanky 3-star wing out of North Carolina. He could see time right away in 2020-21 but will absolutely be a factor for this program in the long-term. Marable is a well-regarded recruit out of Tennessee; he adds even more size and athleticism to the frontline.
UNCA’s star-studded four guard lineup features Devon Baker, LJ Thorpe, Lavar Batts Jr., and Tajion Jones. Baker is the returning leading scorer and a 2nd Team All-Big South honoree last season. Morrell moved Baker off the ball last year presumably to better showcase his scoring ability, allowing Baker to work off the catch and in spot-up situations. Baker will remain a high usage scorer in the Asheville attack – he especially excels off ball screens where he scored 1.007 PPP last year (94th percentile nationally, per Synergy) and in isolation where he’s able to cook just about anyone off the bounce.
Thorpe was an Honorable Mention All-Big South member last season and the 5th highest used player in the league. He does a bit of everything for the Bulldogs including scoring, rebounding, and dishing out assists. Thorpe plays the de facto 4 in Morrell’s lineups due to his size and strength and was the only Bulldog to consistently post-up last season. Like several others on the roster Thorpe vastly improved his outside shooting last year, taking a dreadful 27% clip from his freshman season to a robust 39% in 2019-20.
Batts handled the lion’s share of point guard duties last season and should again in 2020-21. He’s a gifted slasher on offense and one of the league’s best pilferers, ranking 2nd in the Big South in steal rate last season. Jones was the team leader in minutes last season and functions as a long-ball gunner on offense. He led the Big South in 3P% last year shooting a scorching 46.5% from deep.
Coty Jude is the 5th returning starter and lone forward of the bunch. He doesn’t really rebound or block shots, but he does shoot the crap out of the ball. On 329 career attempts Jude is a sizzling 38.9% from three.
Returners Trent Stephney and Jamon Battle will be two of the first players off the bench this season. Stephney is a quick ball handler and a sticky defender in search of a more efficient season in his second year in Asheville. Battle will serve as wing and forward depth; he’s a pretty good shot blocker and rebounder despite standing just 6’5”.
Bottom Line: It’s easy to see all the returners on UNCA’s roster page and get carried away. This team will 100% be better than last season and perhaps even finish as high as 2nd in the Big South. However, paint defense is still going to be a major issue for this squad and could hold them back from realizing their substantial potential.