I think UC has a better shot this year than a normal year, where a typical schedule may have produced (#1-4) an undefeated ND/Clemson and OSU with perhaps one loss, and the SEC Champ as locks. It's looking like OSU will get in currently, but they really can't afford a loss in this atypical year. B1G one loss will not get in over undefeated UC so let's assume OSU runs the table. Oregon has no chance given where they are. Had a P5 champ played a full schedule, one loss P5s would definitely get in over undefeated UC. Let's see how it plays out, but if ND wins out (beating Clemson), they will go to #1. Bama over Fla takes care of Fla. OSU probably runs the table, Clemson at two losses falls out. Then it comes down to A&M and UC for #4. If they give it to A&M, I might have to reconsider my position as far as the selection process and expanding the field. But if I'm picking, you have to put UC versus Kelly there to sell it, 1 vs 4 in the Rose Bowl.

(11-27-2020 07:24 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 06:20 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 03:03 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 01:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I'm sure the committee looked at a variety of things.

As for resting easy, IMO given their current position and schedule, Cincy is a real threat to make the playoffs, and they shouldn't be. They have not and will not face any playoff-calibre tests.

So I will 'rest easy' (to the extent I think about it outside this forum at all, LOL) when it doesn't happen.

So what happens to your argument if, IF, Cincinnati does get in the CFP and wins their semi-final game? I'm not sure I understand your "consternation" if Cincinnati will have an opportunity to prove they belong and do so. In a one game format on a neutral field with few fans anything can happen.

Obviously, if Cincy gets in and wins a game, that would bolster the case of those who said they deserve to be in the playoffs.

But my consternation should be easy to understand. What if the CFP announced a rule tomorrow that because of the messed up schedule, last year's defending champ, LSU, gets an automatic spot in the playoffs? That would create outrage because they aren't much good, but then what if they pulled it together and won their semi-final game?

Good for them, but I think we would both agree they still shouldn't have gotten in to begin with.

What? The LSU example doesn't jive with Cincinnati's #7 ranking. We started out preseason ranked #20 in the AP. We earned our way by winning all the games on our schedule [so far]. There was no special rule that gave Cincinnati an advantage over anyone else. We were measured against all the other teams in FBS and ended up where we did. No harm. No foul. Again, the committee put Cincinnati three spots outside the top four. They cannot control their own destiny and need things to happen above them. It seems you're over-arguing an improbability but that's your right to do so.

The LSU example does illustrate my consternation. I am fully aware that the committee has ranked Cincy #7. And I am OK with it. My contention is that they should not rise in to the top 4 because they do not face any top-shelf tests on their schedule.

So just as LSU does not merit being in the playoffs because their resume does not merit it, IMO Cincy's resume - even if they win out - will not merit it either. True, Cincy's resume will be a lot closer to meriting it than LSU's will, but it is a binary situation, either merit or no-merit. That's the analogy.

(11-27-2020 08:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 07:24 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  What? The LSU example doesn't jive with Cincinnati's #7 ranking. We started out preseason ranked #20 in the AP. We earned our way by winning all the games on our schedule [so far]. There was no special rule that gave Cincinnati an advantage over anyone else. We were measured against all the other teams in FBS and ended up where we did. No harm. No foul. Again, the committee put Cincinnati three spots outside the top four. They cannot control their own destiny and need things to happen above them. It seems you're over-arguing an improbability but that's your right to do so.

The LSU example does illustrate my consternation. I am fully aware that the committee has ranked Cincy #7. And I am OK with it. My contention is that they should not rise in to the top 4 because they do not face any top-shelf tests on their schedule.

So just as LSU does not merit being in the playoffs because their resume does not merit it, IMO Cincy's resume - even if they win out - will not merit it either. True, Cincy's resume will be a lot closer to meriting it than LSU's will, but it is a binary situation, either merit or no-merit. That's the analogy.

You just won an award for using the word "merit" the most times in a brief paragraph LOL. It's all good man. I'll revisit this with you if Cincinnati makes it in the Top four. Don't hold your breath.

(11-27-2020 06:12 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 02:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 01:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  We all know Ohio State is a good team, even though we can't prove it with data.

How do we know, though?

The best team they played they only beat by one possession.

For a “great team,” they don’t impress overall on defense.

They let bad teams hang tighter than they should.

Sometimes, when people say that they "know" something, it's tantamount to a statement of faith, especially when they are aware that they can't prove it with data.

Is OSU a good team? They have to be considered "good" because they beat an undefeated Big Ten team.

Are they a top 5 team?

That's not so clear, because Penn State, Michigan, and MSU are all having a poor season, and because Ohio State's win over Indiana wasn't particularly impressive.

However, they are undefeated, which is more than Clemson, Florida, and Texas A&M can say. Undefeated teams should get preference to play in a college football championship, since any team that has been defeated cannot make a convincing claim to be the best team in the nation.

In order for a cfb championship series to mean anything, any team that has lost a game should not be one of the first in line to compete for the cfb championship, because their loss has proven, ipso facto, that they are not the best team in the nation.[/b]

On that basis, the playoffs should arguably be played by the top four undefeated, if there are four undefeated teams in the top 10:

Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Cincinnati

I agree with this, but there’s a possibility 6-0 might be the Buckeyes’ ceiling now, and that makes it very tough to overlook some of those teams with one good loss or the other undefeated non-major teams. It becomes both a quality and quantity issue; having 3-5 extra games than a Big Ten school who’s greatness runs on a hunch...a tough swallow and too big a leap of faith.

(11-28-2020 08:06 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 06:12 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 02:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 01:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  We all know Ohio State is a good team, even though we can't prove it with data.

How do we know, though?

The best team they played they only beat by one possession.

For a “great team,” they don’t impress overall on defense.

They let bad teams hang tighter than they should.

Sometimes, when people say that they "know" something, it's tantamount to a statement of faith, especially when they are aware that they can't prove it with data.

Is OSU a good team? They have to be considered "good" because they beat an undefeated Big Ten team.

Are they a top 5 team?

That's not so clear, because Penn State, Michigan, and MSU are all having a poor season, and because Ohio State's win over Indiana wasn't particularly impressive.

However, they are undefeated, which is more than Clemson, Florida, and Texas A&M can say. Undefeated teams should get preference to play in a college football championship, since any team that has been defeated cannot make a convincing claim to be the best team in the nation.

In order for a cfb championship series to mean anything, any team that has lost a game should not be one of the first in line to compete for the cfb championship, because their loss has proven, ipso facto, that they are not the best team in the nation.[/b]

On that basis, the playoffs should arguably be played by the top four undefeated, if there are four undefeated teams in the top 10:

Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Cincinnati

I agree with this, but there’s a possibility 6-0 might be the Buckeyes’ ceiling now, and that makes it very tough to overlook some of those teams with one good loss or the other undefeated non-major teams. It becomes both a quality and quantity issue; having 3-5 extra games than a Big Ten school who’s greatness runs on a hunch...a tough swallow and too big a leap of faith.

Whether they would deserve it or not, the odds that a 6-0 Ohio state team makes the playoffs are .... 100%. No way no how will they be left out.

That said, Jed's idea that undefeated teams should be ranked ahead of once-beaten teams as a matter of principle makes no sense, because it fails to take into account who the teams played.

ODU vs. NMSU for the 4th spot and a one-way ticket to a conference of their choice.

(11-28-2020 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 08:06 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 06:12 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 02:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 01:55 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  We all know Ohio State is a good team, even though we can't prove it with data.

How do we know, though?

The best team they played they only beat by one possession.

For a “great team,” they don’t impress overall on defense.

They let bad teams hang tighter than they should.

Sometimes, when people say that they "know" something, it's tantamount to a statement of faith, especially when they are aware that they can't prove it with data.

Is OSU a good team? They have to be considered "good" because they beat an undefeated Big Ten team.

Are they a top 5 team?

That's not so clear, because Penn State, Michigan, and MSU are all having a poor season, and because Ohio State's win over Indiana wasn't particularly impressive.

However, they are undefeated, which is more than Clemson, Florida, and Texas A&M can say. Undefeated teams should get preference to play in a college football championship, since any team that has been defeated cannot make a convincing claim to be the best team in the nation.

In order for a cfb championship series to mean anything, any team that has lost a game should not be one of the first in line to compete for the cfb championship, because their loss has proven, ipso facto, that they are not the best team in the nation.[/b]

On that basis, the playoffs should arguably be played by the top four undefeated, if there are four undefeated teams in the top 10:

Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Cincinnati

I agree with this, but there’s a possibility 6-0 might be the Buckeyes’ ceiling now, and that makes it very tough to overlook some of those teams with one good loss or the other undefeated non-major teams. It becomes both a quality and quantity issue; having 3-5 extra games than a Big Ten school who’s greatness runs on a hunch...a tough swallow and too big a leap of faith.

Whether they would deserve it or not, the odds that a 6-0 Ohio state team makes the playoffs are .... 100%. No way no how will they be left out.

That said, Jed's idea that undefeated teams should be ranked ahead of once-beaten teams as a matter of principle makes no sense, because it fails to take into account who the teams played.

Try imagining this scenario...

Ohio State loses either the Michigan State or Michigan games and is ineligible for the Big Ten title. They still play Dec. 19 vs. the 2nd place Big Ten West team (likely Wisconsin) and beat them to go 7-0 (I'll assume they only not play one game).

Northwestern then wins the Big Ten Championship Game and is undefeated. They'd probably beat Indiana in the CCG.

Now the Big Ten has two undefeated teams! Is it possible for them to get BOTH Ohio State AND Northwestern in the College Football Playoff? Or is there a chance NEITHER get in (like Baylor and TCU in the first year of the Playoff)? What's the most likely scenario if it were to happen?

Ohio State would be 6-0. 'd think committe puts only 1 in and gives the last spot to a 1-loss SEC/ACC team. Suppose Ohio State gets in before Cincinnati because, bias? I do think Cincinnati adding a game, even against a team like TCU, shows the necessary effort to Trump any Big Ten non-champion.

(11-28-2020 10:51 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 08:06 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 06:12 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 02:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  How do we know, though?

The best team they played they only beat by one possession.

For a “great team,” they don’t impress overall on defense.

They let bad teams hang tighter than they should.

Sometimes, when people say that they "know" something, it's tantamount to a statement of faith, especially when they are aware that they can't prove it with data.

Is OSU a good team? They have to be considered "good" because they beat an undefeated Big Ten team.

Are they a top 5 team?

That's not so clear, because Penn State, Michigan, and MSU are all having a poor season, and because Ohio State's win over Indiana wasn't particularly impressive.

However, they are undefeated, which is more than Clemson, Florida, and Texas A&M can say. Undefeated teams should get preference to play in a college football championship, since any team that has been defeated cannot make a convincing claim to be the best team in the nation.

In order for a cfb championship series to mean anything, any team that has lost a game should not be one of the first in line to compete for the cfb championship, because their loss has proven, ipso facto, that they are not the best team in the nation.[/b]

On that basis, the playoffs should arguably be played by the top four undefeated, if there are four undefeated teams in the top 10:

Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Cincinnati

I agree with this, but there’s a possibility 6-0 might be the Buckeyes’ ceiling now, and that makes it very tough to overlook some of those teams with one good loss or the other undefeated non-major teams. It becomes both a quality and quantity issue; having 3-5 extra games than a Big Ten school who’s greatness runs on a hunch...a tough swallow and too big a leap of faith.

Whether they would deserve it or not, the odds that a 6-0 Ohio state team makes the playoffs are .... 100%. No way no how will they be left out.

That said, Jed's idea that undefeated teams should be ranked ahead of once-beaten teams as a matter of principle makes no sense, because it fails to take into account who the teams played.

Try imagining this scenario...

Ohio State loses either the Michigan State or Michigan games and is ineligible for the Big Ten title. They still play Dec. 19 vs. the 2nd place Big Ten West team (likely Wisconsin) and beat them to go 7-0 (I'll assume they only not play one game).

Northwestern then wins the Big Ten Championship Game and is undefeated. They'd probably beat Indiana in the CCG.

Now the Big Ten has two undefeated teams! Is it possible for them to get BOTH Ohio State AND Northwestern in the College Football Playoff? Or is there a chance NEITHER get in (like Baylor and TCU in the first year of the Playoff)? What's the most likely scenario if it were to happen?

I think in that case both two teams in and both left out are possible, but two teams left out is the more likely of the two.

The most likely scenario though would be 1 in and 1 out, and guess who would be left out? Hint, it's not Ohio State, LOL.

(11-28-2020 11:39 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 10:51 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 08:06 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 06:12 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  Sometimes, when people say that they "know" something, it's tantamount to a statement of faith, especially when they are aware that they can't prove it with data.

Is OSU a good team? They have to be considered "good" because they beat an undefeated Big Ten team.

Are they a top 5 team?

That's not so clear, because Penn State, Michigan, and MSU are all having a poor season, and because Ohio State's win over Indiana wasn't particularly impressive.

However, they are undefeated, which is more than Clemson, Florida, and Texas A&M can say. Undefeated teams should get preference to play in a college football championship, since any team that has been defeated cannot make a convincing claim to be the best team in the nation.

In order for a cfb championship series to mean anything, any team that has lost a game should not be one of the first in line to compete for the cfb championship, because their loss has proven, ipso facto, that they are not the best team in the nation.[/b]

On that basis, the playoffs should arguably be played by the top four undefeated, if there are four undefeated teams in the top 10:

Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Cincinnati

I agree with this, but there’s a possibility 6-0 might be the Buckeyes’ ceiling now, and that makes it very tough to overlook some of those teams with one good loss or the other undefeated non-major teams. It becomes both a quality and quantity issue; having 3-5 extra games than a Big Ten school who’s greatness runs on a hunch...a tough swallow and too big a leap of faith.

Whether they would deserve it or not, the odds that a 6-0 Ohio state team makes the playoffs are .... 100%. No way no how will they be left out.

That said, Jed's idea that undefeated teams should be ranked ahead of once-beaten teams as a matter of principle makes no sense, because it fails to take into account who the teams played.

Try imagining this scenario...

Ohio State loses either the Michigan State or Michigan games and is ineligible for the Big Ten title. They still play Dec. 19 vs. the 2nd place Big Ten West team (likely Wisconsin) and beat them to go 7-0 (I'll assume they only not play one game).

Northwestern then wins the Big Ten Championship Game and is undefeated. They'd probably beat Indiana in the CCG.

Now the Big Ten has two undefeated teams! Is it possible for them to get BOTH Ohio State AND Northwestern in the College Football Playoff? Or is there a chance NEITHER get in (like Baylor and TCU in the first year of the Playoff)? What's the most likely scenario if it were to happen?

I think in that case both two teams in and both left out are possible, but two teams left out is the more likely of the two.

The most likely scenario though would be 1 in and 1 out, and guess who would be left out? Hint, it's not Ohio State, LOL.

This is true. While there is a definite hierarchy of leagues, there is a hierarchy within the leagues themselves. What that means is a few teams can get in the CFP with one loss while others have to be undefeated. The hierarchy is a result of tradition, expectations and results.

For example, in the ACC, it’s Clemson, Florida State, and Miami. Any of those three could make the CFP with 1 loss. I doubt anyone else in the ACC could make it with a loss.

In the Big Ten, a one loss Northwestern isn’t getting in over a one loss Michigan or Ohio State. Northwestern would have to be undefeated to make the CFP

(11-28-2020 10:51 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 08:06 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 06:12 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 02:06 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  How do we know, though?

The best team they played they only beat by one possession.

For a “great team,” they don’t impress overall on defense.

They let bad teams hang tighter than they should.

Sometimes, when people say that they "know" something, it's tantamount to a statement of faith, especially when they are aware that they can't prove it with data.

Is OSU a good team? They have to be considered "good" because they beat an undefeated Big Ten team.

Are they a top 5 team?

That's not so clear, because Penn State, Michigan, and MSU are all having a poor season, and because Ohio State's win over Indiana wasn't particularly impressive.

However, they are undefeated, which is more than Clemson, Florida, and Texas A&M can say. Undefeated teams should get preference to play in a college football championship, since any team that has been defeated cannot make a convincing claim to be the best team in the nation.

In order for a cfb championship series to mean anything, any team that has lost a game should not be one of the first in line to compete for the cfb championship, because their loss has proven, ipso facto, that they are not the best team in the nation.[/b]

On that basis, the playoffs should arguably be played by the top four undefeated, if there are four undefeated teams in the top 10:

Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Cincinnati

I agree with this, but there’s a possibility 6-0 might be the Buckeyes’ ceiling now, and that makes it very tough to overlook some of those teams with one good loss or the other undefeated non-major teams. It becomes both a quality and quantity issue; having 3-5 extra games than a Big Ten school who’s greatness runs on a hunch...a tough swallow and too big a leap of faith.

Whether they would deserve it or not, the odds that a 6-0 Ohio state team makes the playoffs are .... 100%. No way no how will they be left out.

That said, Jed's idea that undefeated teams should be ranked ahead of once-beaten teams as a matter of principle makes no sense, because it fails to take into account who the teams played.

Try imagining this scenario...

Ohio State loses either the Michigan State or Michigan games and is ineligible for the Big Ten title. They still play Dec. 19 vs. the 2nd place Big Ten West team (likely Wisconsin) and beat them to go 7-0 (I'll assume they only not play one game).

Northwestern then wins the Big Ten Championship Game and is undefeated. They'd probably beat Indiana in the CCG.

Now the Big Ten has two undefeated teams! Is it possible for them to get BOTH Ohio State AND Northwestern in the College Football Playoff? Or is there a chance NEITHER get in (like Baylor and TCU in the first year of the Playoff)? What's the most likely scenario if it were to happen?

How would OSU remain undefeated if they have a loss?

(11-28-2020 02:28 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 10:51 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 08:06 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(11-27-2020 06:12 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  Sometimes, when people say that they "know" something, it's tantamount to a statement of faith, especially when they are aware that they can't prove it with data.

Is OSU a good team? They have to be considered "good" because they beat an undefeated Big Ten team.

Are they a top 5 team?

That's not so clear, because Penn State, Michigan, and MSU are all having a poor season, and because Ohio State's win over Indiana wasn't particularly impressive.

However, they are undefeated, which is more than Clemson, Florida, and Texas A&M can say. Undefeated teams should get preference to play in a college football championship, since any team that has been defeated cannot make a convincing claim to be the best team in the nation.

In order for a cfb championship series to mean anything, any team that has lost a game should not be one of the first in line to compete for the cfb championship, because their loss has proven, ipso facto, that they are not the best team in the nation.[/b]

On that basis, the playoffs should arguably be played by the top four undefeated, if there are four undefeated teams in the top 10:

Alabama
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Cincinnati

I agree with this, but there’s a possibility 6-0 might be the Buckeyes’ ceiling now, and that makes it very tough to overlook some of those teams with one good loss or the other undefeated non-major teams. It becomes both a quality and quantity issue; having 3-5 extra games than a Big Ten school who’s greatness runs on a hunch...a tough swallow and too big a leap of faith.

Whether they would deserve it or not, the odds that a 6-0 Ohio state team makes the playoffs are .... 100%. No way no how will they be left out.

That said, Jed's idea that undefeated teams should be ranked ahead of once-beaten teams as a matter of principle makes no sense, because it fails to take into account who the teams played.

Try imagining this scenario...

Ohio State loses either the Michigan State or Michigan games and is ineligible for the Big Ten title. They still play Dec. 19 vs. the 2nd place Big Ten West team (likely Wisconsin) and beat them to go 7-0 (I'll assume they only not play one game).

Northwestern then wins the Big Ten Championship Game and is undefeated. They'd probably beat Indiana in the CCG.

Now the Big Ten has two undefeated teams! Is it possible for them to get BOTH Ohio State AND Northwestern in the College Football Playoff? Or is there a chance NEITHER get in (like Baylor and TCU in the first year of the Playoff)? What's the most likely scenario if it were to happen?

How would OSU remain undefeated if they have a loss?

When I meant loses I meant has the game canceled due to COVID. Poor choice of words, sorry. Obviously if they actually lost the game on the field that's different.

(11-28-2020 03:16 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 02:28 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 10:51 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 09:27 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-28-2020 08:06 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  I agree with this, but there’s a possibility 6-0 might be the Buckeyes’ ceiling now, and that makes it very tough to overlook some of those teams with one good loss or the other undefeated non-major teams. It becomes both a quality and quantity issue; having 3-5 extra games than a Big Ten school who’s greatness runs on a hunch...a tough swallow and too big a leap of faith.

Whether they would deserve it or not, the odds that a 6-0 Ohio state team makes the playoffs are .... 100%. No way no how will they be left out.

That said, Jed's idea that undefeated teams should be ranked ahead of once-beaten teams as a matter of principle makes no sense, because it fails to take into account who the teams played.

Try imagining this scenario...

Ohio State loses either the Michigan State or Michigan games and is ineligible for the Big Ten title. They still play Dec. 19 vs. the 2nd place Big Ten West team (likely Wisconsin) and beat them to go 7-0 (I'll assume they only not play one game).

Northwestern then wins the Big Ten Championship Game and is undefeated. They'd probably beat Indiana in the CCG.

Now the Big Ten has two undefeated teams! Is it possible for them to get BOTH Ohio State AND Northwestern in the College Football Playoff? Or is there a chance NEITHER get in (like Baylor and TCU in the first year of the Playoff)? What's the most likely scenario if it were to happen?

How would OSU remain undefeated if they have a loss?

When I meant loses I meant has the game canceled due to COVID. Poor choice of words, sorry. Obviously if they actually lost the game on the field that's different.

Gotcha. Why would OSU be ineligible ..... for CCG not enough games played?