We have a consensus top 25 which isn't that unusual this late in a year. The ordering differs though between the coaches and the ap. CFP week 1 will be out on Tuesday. What's your prediction, you can do the whole top 25 or just the surprises.
(11-22-2020 04:32 PM)Foreverandever Wrote: We have a consensus top 25 which isn't that unusual this late in a year. The ordering differs though between the coaches and the ap. CFP week 1 will be out on Tuesday. What's your prediction, you can do the whole top 25 or just the surprises.
Knowing the cfp and how some of these got up there I know it will be rearranged for example BYU's fbs opponents record is 29-34 with UTSA at 6-4 probably there best win and several of their opponents are below .500 that will not get them a top ten ranking.
This is what I think happens.
(11-22-2020 04:38 PM)Lurkercat Wrote: My guess on top 10
Bama
ND
Osu
Clemson
Northwestern
Florida
A&m
Oregon
Cincy
Byu
I just feel Oregon doesn't have the games yet to jump Cincy and I just can't see them rewarding BYU's trash schedule like that. But in the next week or two if Oregon actually plays games I could see that being a real possibility because of p5 bias, not just in the cfp either but the AP and Coaches. We really need SMU and Memphis to win out and climb back into the rankings. Army winning till Navy beats them would help Cincy too.
(11-22-2020 04:38 PM)Lurkercat Wrote: My guess on top 10
Bama
ND
Osu
Clemson
Northwestern
Florida
A&m
Oregon
Cincy
Byu
I just feel Oregon doesn't have the games yet to jump Cincy and I just can't see them rewarding BYU's trash schedule like that. But in the next week or two if Oregon actually plays games I could see that being a real possibility because of p5 bias, not just in the cfp either but the AP and Coaches. We really need SMU and Memphis to win out and climb back into the rankings. Army winning till Navy beats them would help Cincy too.
Your argument is way too logical. Unfortunately the trend seems to be undefeated p5 = top 10
One thing that apparently has been a big predictor for what the CFP committee does is the Strength of Record, which measures how the average top 25 team would do vs your schedule. Cincinnati is apparently 4th in SoR, which does bode well. I saw that Heather Dinich believes the committee may well have Cincinnati above some of those P5 teams, but I would still be shocked personally. Just because of the P5 bias.
(11-22-2020 04:38 PM)Lurkercat Wrote: My guess on top 10
Bama
ND
Osu
Clemson
Northwestern
Florida
A&m
Oregon
Cincy
Byu
I just feel Oregon doesn't have the games yet to jump Cincy and I just can't see them rewarding BYU's trash schedule like that. But in the next week or two if Oregon actually plays games I could see that being a real possibility because of p5 bias, not just in the cfp either but the AP and Coaches. We really need SMU and Memphis to win out and climb back into the rankings. Army winning till Navy beats them would help Cincy too.
Your argument is way too logical. Unfortunately the trend seems to be undefeated p5 = top 10
Maybe this year is different
I agree, just not sure the committee will make it that blatant in week one, but when Oregon is a couple more games in their overall body of work will sound like a nice reasoning to the public.
(11-22-2020 04:32 PM)Foreverandever Wrote: We have a consensus top 25 which isn't that unusual this late in a year. The ordering differs though between the coaches and the ap. CFP week 1 will be out on Tuesday. What's your prediction, you can do the whole top 25 or just the surprises.
I think the top 7 are fairly easy, after that, everything is a major debate. I think Northwestern will jump higher, BYU falls and the debate over the Big 12 is going to be epic. the head to heads in the Big 12 make things complicated, alone with the Sun Belt's Louisiana and Coastal mucking up the debates and moving higher( thanks Big 12). I expect Marshall to fall big. It will be very telling for sure.
(11-22-2020 04:55 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote: One thing that apparently has been a big predictor for what the CFP committee does is the Strength of Record, which measures how the average top 25 team would do vs your schedule. Cincinnati is apparently 4th in SoR, which does bode well. I saw that Heather Dinich believes the committee may well have Cincinnati above some of those P5 teams, but I would still be shocked personally. Just because of the P5 bias.
I did not realize their SoR was so high. The big deal.is for Army, SMU, and Memphis to keep winning. Those teams climbing back into the rankings give Cincy four or five high level games they can use against a six or seven win PAC/Big 10 team when arguing resumes.
Maybe I am getti g pulled in a little more, but I don't expect Cincy to be outrageously placed. The SoR is a strong selling point as is there total game number vs other teams I would normally expect to be placed in front. The difference in schedule strength will be interesting to compare between BYU and Cincy with how the cfp ranks them.
Moment of truth for all of us as teams in this conference. Hopefully we paved a good enough rode for Cincy to be considered, and what you guys did is good enough to make it. If you’re outside of the Top 6 it’s not happening. If you’re 6th there’s a chance. Hope for you guys you make it
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2020 06:56 PM by IamYourDad.)
(11-24-2020 06:55 PM)IamYourDad Wrote: Moment of truth for all of us as teams in this conference. Hopefully we paved a good enough rode for Cincy to be considered, and what you guys did is good enough to make it. If you’re outside of the Top 6 it’s not happening. If you’re 6th there’s a chance. Hope for you guys you make it
I'd say there's still a chance if they're 7th, possibly 8th depending on how it shakes out.
(11-24-2020 06:55 PM)IamYourDad Wrote: Moment of truth for all of us as teams in this conference. Hopefully we paved a good enough rode for Cincy to be considered, and what you guys did is good enough to make it. If you’re outside of the Top 6 it’s not happening. If you’re 6th there’s a chance. Hope for you guys you make it
I'd say there's still a chance if they're 7th, possibly 8th depending on how it shakes out.
I said the same thing for us and it didn’t happen. Even if the teams inside of that range lose who beat them will be thrusted to the playoff. If they’re not at least 7th it’s toast
(11-24-2020 07:12 PM)IamYourDad Wrote: Cincy at 7. There’s a chance, as tiny as it is
We are already higher than any G5 Team has ever been. There is a real chance. Obviously have to have help, but them ranking us at 7 already shows me they are willing to put us in if things fall right. I felt like the wouldn’t put UCF in no matter what, which was unfortunate.
I think we have to credit what UCF accomplished for us getting more respect.
CFP Predictions for 2020 
