(11-03-2020 11:20 AM)mrbig Wrote: I came in here to see everyone's election predictions and instead found a bunch of monkeys throwing poop at each other!
I think Biden will win pretty big and I generally believe that polling is more science than mystical arts or wizardry. I think Biden recovers the upper midwest states (PA, WI, MI) and also wins the sunbelt states of GA, NC, and AZ. Trump holds IA and OH. I am most curious about TX and FL. The sheer number of non-2016 voters in those states make it much harder to predict what will happen. I guess I will hold onto my optimism and predict Biden wins in both (in TX because of new voters, in FL based on the polls). I think that puts it at 389-149.
Dems win the Senate pretty easily if my presidential predictions are even remotely close to true. Dems lose AL, but gain CO, AZ, ME, NC, and MT. Both GA seats go to runoffs (I think the Libertarian keeps both Ossoff and Perdue below 50%) and Dems ultimately win both. Republicans hold the seats in SC, AK, TX, and IA. I think Graham will win SC by more than expected based on the polls, while Alaska, Iowa, and Montana will all be quite close. I think that leaves the Dems with a 53-47 advantage.
Dems gain about 10 seats in the House.
Not looking to fight with anyone or throw poop, just throwing my predictions out there for posterity (or hilarity). If you want to laugh at me, fine. But please don't make it personal, make it evidence-based.
Nothing there to 'throw poop' at, sir.
I see a decent basis for your predictions -- and I see a basis for a 51-49 Republican Senate as well. I truly do not know where this one will go, nor do I feel comfortable stating which way it would go.
I would have subscribed to your Presidential prognostication as pretty well within reason up until about 10 days ago. Trump has really closed gaps in swing states in the last 10 days, especially in the spot polls from two days ago and newer.
In one sense, there is a reason for hope in Biden landslide -- the singular fact that violence and protests over an election issue will be at its minimum with that.
If there is a narrow or contested Biden win, there will be large protests.
If Trump does the 99th percentile and moves the swing states and generates a 10+ electoral win (and he *will* lose the popular), at a minimum there will be protests that would *dwarf* those from 2016 --- it just seemingly goes with whatever the battleground de jure that is lost in the progressive realm generates at the very least such massive protests.
The really bad result is a narrow Trump electoral victory -- that would automatically trigger lawsuits galore, and to top it off I would expect pretty widespread violence with that. Just look at the summer and Portland. And, the main reason is that it is 2020.
Hopefully with the last three, if the predicates occur, I am wrong. But with any Trump win I dont see any civility in the process in any way, shape, or form. Again, I hope I am wrong if that predicate occurs.