(12-20-2020 12:15 AM)Cardiff Wrote:  

(12-20-2020 12:07 AM)Dowless Wrote:  We were 49 - 39 at this point last season with an opponent ranking average of 208. This season we are 55-33, but our opponent average ranking has been 226. I'd say we are pretty much the same as a conference as we were last season.

I agree with your bottom line but how did you calculate the average opponent ranking?

It is a formula that I created using a system of rankings for each opponent.

Here is my take so far in the season. This year conference strength of schedule will be a larger factor compared to the tier scheduling system.

Marshall
After 5 games this season they are 4-1 with an opponent SOS of 161.
Last season they were 2-3 with an opponent ranking of 189.
Early analysis: They will fight WKU for regular season conference champion. They have the 10th toughest schedule for conference play.

North Texas
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 189.
Last season they were 2-4 with an opponent ranking of 175.
Early analysis: Team is slightly better this season. They have the 5th toughest conference schedule.

WKU
After 8 games this season they are 6-2 with an opponent SOS of 111.
Last season they were 6-2 with an opponent ranking of 219.
Early analysis: They are a better team this season which is scary for CUSA. They also have a weak conference schedule at 11th toughest.

La Tech
After 8 games this season they are 6-2 with an opponent SOS of 235.
Last season they were 6-2 with an opponent ranking of 220.
Early analysis: They should be about the same as last season. They have the 8th toughest conference schedule.

Charlotte
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 197.
Last season they were 3-3 with an opponent ranking of 185.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 4th toughest conference schedule.

UTSA
After 5 games this season they are 2-3 with an opponent SOS of 242.
Last season they were 0-5 with an opponent ranking of 125.
Early analysis: I have them being better, but they haven't shown it with only wins against non-D1. They have the 6th toughest conference schedule.

ODU
After 4 games this season they are 2-2 with an opponent SOS of 153.
Last season they were 3-1 with an opponent ranking of 178.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 9th toughest conference schedule.

UAB
After 8 games this season they are 7-1 with an opponent SOS of 286.
Last season they were 4-4 with an opponent ranking of 198.
Early analysis: They will be slightly better than last season thanks to the scheduling. They have the easiest conference schedule.

FAU
After 7 games this season they are 4-3 with an opponent SOS of 304.
Last season they were 4-3 with an opponent ranking of 258.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 7th toughest conference schedule.

FIU
After 7 games this season they are 5-2 with an opponent SOS of 283.
Last season they were 4-3 with an opponent ranking of 253.
Early analysis: I have them losing ground from last season especially since they have the 2nd toughest conference schedule.

UTEP
After 5 games this season they are 3-2 with an opponent SOS of 192.
Last season they were 5-0 with an opponent ranking of 288.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 13th toughest conference schedule.

MT
After 6 games this season they are 2-4 with an opponent SOS of 196.
Last season they were 3-3 with an opponent ranking of 240.
Early analysis: I have them as the last team in the conference tournament this season. They do have the 3rd toughest conference schedule.

Rice
After 7 games this season they are 5-2 with an opponent SOS of 330.
Last season they were 5-2 with an opponent ranking of 186.
Early analysis: No Tournament. Early season hype fades when you see the strength of schedule that they've played so far. They also have the toughest conference schedule.

Southern Miss
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 281.
Last season they were 2-4 with an opponent ranking of 202.
Early analysis: Still a bottom feeder, but they do have the 12th toughest conference schedule.

(12-20-2020 12:07 AM)Dowless Wrote:  re 49 - 39 at this point last season with an opponent ranking average of 208. This season we are 55-33, but our opponent average ranking has been 226. I'd say we are pretty much the same as a conference as we were last season.

The conference as a whole may be about the same as last year but I believe that the top is better this year.

A lot of depth this year, currently, Middle is the only sub .500 team.

And they're still decent.

Good to see the bottom of the league pick itself up a little bit. Now we just need UAB or Western to separate, I think our league could really do well to have one or two flagship teams this year, with the rest of us kind of picking up the middle, and the bottom end of the league not looking like dead weights as in past years..

(12-20-2020 09:30 AM)Dowless Wrote:  Here is my take so far in the season. This year conference strength of schedule will be a larger factor compared to the tier scheduling system.

Marshall
After 5 games this season they are 4-1 with an opponent SOS of 161.
Last season they were 2-3 with an opponent ranking of 189.
Early analysis: They will fight WKU for regular season conference champion. They have the 10th toughest schedule for conference play.

North Texas
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 189.
Last season they were 2-4 with an opponent ranking of 175.
Early analysis: Team is slightly better this season. They have the 5th toughest conference schedule.

WKU
After 8 games this season they are 6-2 with an opponent SOS of 111.
Last season they were 6-2 with an opponent ranking of 219.
Early analysis: They are a better team this season which is scary for CUSA. They also have a weak conference schedule at 11th toughest.

La Tech
After 8 games this season they are 6-2 with an opponent SOS of 235.
Last season they were 6-2 with an opponent ranking of 220.
Early analysis: They should be about the same as last season. They have the 8th toughest conference schedule.

Charlotte
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 197.
Last season they were 3-3 with an opponent ranking of 185.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 4th toughest conference schedule.

UTSA
After 5 games this season they are 2-3 with an opponent SOS of 242.
Last season they were 0-5 with an opponent ranking of 125.
Early analysis: I have them being better, but they haven't shown it with only wins against non-D1. They have the 6th toughest conference schedule.

ODU
After 4 games this season they are 2-2 with an opponent SOS of 153.
Last season they were 3-1 with an opponent ranking of 178.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 9th toughest conference schedule.

UAB
After 8 games this season they are 7-1 with an opponent SOS of 286.
Last season they were 4-4 with an opponent ranking of 198.
Early analysis: They will be slightly better than last season thanks to the scheduling. They have the easiest conference schedule.

FAU
After 7 games this season they are 4-3 with an opponent SOS of 304.
Last season they were 4-3 with an opponent ranking of 258.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 7th toughest conference schedule.

FIU
After 7 games this season they are 5-2 with an opponent SOS of 283.
Last season they were 4-3 with an opponent ranking of 253.
Early analysis: I have them losing ground from last season especially since they have the 2nd toughest conference schedule.

UTEP
After 5 games this season they are 3-2 with an opponent SOS of 192.
Last season they were 5-0 with an opponent ranking of 288.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 13th toughest conference schedule.

MT
After 6 games this season they are 2-4 with an opponent SOS of 196.
Last season they were 3-3 with an opponent ranking of 240.
Early analysis: I have them as the last team in the conference tournament this season. They do have the 3rd toughest conference schedule.

Rice
After 7 games this season they are 5-2 with an opponent SOS of 330.
Last season they were 5-2 with an opponent ranking of 186.
Early analysis: No Tournament. Early season hype fades when you see the strength of schedule that they've played so far. They also have the toughest conference schedule.

Southern Miss
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 281.
Last season they were 2-4 with an opponent ranking of 202.
Early analysis: Still a bottom feeder, but they do have the 12th toughest conference schedule.

Thanks for the stats and analysis. Nice to see it all in one place.

(12-20-2020 07:32 PM)Hilltopper2K Wrote:  

(12-20-2020 12:07 AM)Dowless Wrote:  re 49 - 39 at this point last season with an opponent ranking average of 208. This season we are 55-33, but our opponent average ranking has been 226. I'd say we are pretty much the same as a conference as we were last season.

The conference as a whole may be about the same as last year but I believe that the top is better this year.

I agree. I think WKU, Marshall, and North Texas are solid.

(12-20-2020 08:17 PM)rileylives Wrote:  A lot of depth this year, currently, Middle is the only sub .500 team.

And they're still decent.

Good to see the bottom of the league pick itself up a little bit. Now we just need UAB or Western to separate, I think our league could really do well to have one or two flagship teams this year, with the rest of us kind of picking up the middle, and the bottom end of the league not looking like dead weights as in past years..

I think UAB is over-rated with the record they have. They played 1 Top 200 team (#165 Chattanooga) and lost. 4 of their wins are sub 300 teams and a non-D1. They get 3 top 100 teams next so I wouldn't be surprised to see them at 7-4 after that stretch. I think it will be close between Marshall and WKU. They split a home and away so I could see them splitting their games between each other. A Covid-19 quarantine could actually determine who wins the conference if a top player goes out for a couple of games.

UAB
After 8 games this season they are 7-1 with an opponent SOS of 286.
Last season they were 4-4 with an opponent ranking of 198.
Early analysis: They will be slightly better than last season thanks to the scheduling. They have the easiest conference schedule.

Why doesn't this surprise me?

(12-20-2020 09:30 AM)Dowless Wrote:  Here is my take so far in the season. This year conference strength of schedule will be a larger factor compared to the tier scheduling system.

Marshall
After 5 games this season they are 4-1 with an opponent SOS of 161.
Last season they were 2-3 with an opponent ranking of 189.
Early analysis: They will fight WKU for regular season conference champion. They have the 10th toughest schedule for conference play.

North Texas
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 189.
Last season they were 2-4 with an opponent ranking of 175.
Early analysis: Team is slightly better this season. They have the 5th toughest conference schedule.

WKU
After 8 games this season they are 6-2 with an opponent SOS of 111.
Last season they were 6-2 with an opponent ranking of 219.
Early analysis: They are a better team this season which is scary for CUSA. They also have a weak conference schedule at 11th toughest.

La Tech
After 8 games this season they are 6-2 with an opponent SOS of 235.
Last season they were 6-2 with an opponent ranking of 220.
Early analysis: They should be about the same as last season. They have the 8th toughest conference schedule.

Charlotte
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 197.
Last season they were 3-3 with an opponent ranking of 185.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 4th toughest conference schedule.

UTSA
After 5 games this season they are 2-3 with an opponent SOS of 242.
Last season they were 0-5 with an opponent ranking of 125.
Early analysis: I have them being better, but they haven't shown it with only wins against non-D1. They have the 6th toughest conference schedule.

ODU
After 4 games this season they are 2-2 with an opponent SOS of 153.
Last season they were 3-1 with an opponent ranking of 178.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 9th toughest conference schedule.

UAB
After 8 games this season they are 7-1 with an opponent SOS of 286.
Last season they were 4-4 with an opponent ranking of 198.
Early analysis: They will be slightly better than last season thanks to the scheduling. They have the easiest conference schedule.

FAU
After 7 games this season they are 4-3 with an opponent SOS of 304.
Last season they were 4-3 with an opponent ranking of 258.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 7th toughest conference schedule.

FIU
After 7 games this season they are 5-2 with an opponent SOS of 283.
Last season they were 4-3 with an opponent ranking of 253.
Early analysis: I have them losing ground from last season especially since they have the 2nd toughest conference schedule.

UTEP
After 5 games this season they are 3-2 with an opponent SOS of 192.
Last season they were 5-0 with an opponent ranking of 288.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 13th toughest conference schedule.

MT
After 6 games this season they are 2-4 with an opponent SOS of 196.
Last season they were 3-3 with an opponent ranking of 240.
Early analysis: I have them as the last team in the conference tournament this season. They do have the 3rd toughest conference schedule.

Rice
After 7 games this season they are 5-2 with an opponent SOS of 330.
Last season they were 5-2 with an opponent ranking of 186.
Early analysis: No Tournament. Early season hype fades when you see the strength of schedule that they've played so far. They also have the toughest conference schedule.

Southern Miss
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 281.
Last season they were 2-4 with an opponent ranking of 202.
Early analysis: Still a bottom feeder, but they do have the 12th toughest conference schedule.

I’m curious where you got your SOS numbers? Currently KenPom has the following for our top teams:
WKU - 51
Marshall - 201
North Texas - 247
La Tech - 292
UAB - 310

The Tops have played a much tougher non-conference schedule than the rest of the league. 6 out of 8 opponents so far are Top 100 teams. WKU has gone 4-2 in those games with only one at home.

(12-21-2020 10:36 AM)Hilltopper413 Wrote:  

(12-20-2020 09:30 AM)Dowless Wrote:  Here is my take so far in the season. This year conference strength of schedule will be a larger factor compared to the tier scheduling system.

Marshall
After 5 games this season they are 4-1 with an opponent SOS of 161.
Last season they were 2-3 with an opponent ranking of 189.
Early analysis: They will fight WKU for regular season conference champion. They have the 10th toughest schedule for conference play.

North Texas
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 189.
Last season they were 2-4 with an opponent ranking of 175.
Early analysis: Team is slightly better this season. They have the 5th toughest conference schedule.

WKU
After 8 games this season they are 6-2 with an opponent SOS of 111.
Last season they were 6-2 with an opponent ranking of 219.
Early analysis: They are a better team this season which is scary for CUSA. They also have a weak conference schedule at 11th toughest.

La Tech
After 8 games this season they are 6-2 with an opponent SOS of 235.
Last season they were 6-2 with an opponent ranking of 220.
Early analysis: They should be about the same as last season. They have the 8th toughest conference schedule.

Charlotte
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 197.
Last season they were 3-3 with an opponent ranking of 185.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 4th toughest conference schedule.

UTSA
After 5 games this season they are 2-3 with an opponent SOS of 242.
Last season they were 0-5 with an opponent ranking of 125.
Early analysis: I have them being better, but they haven't shown it with only wins against non-D1. They have the 6th toughest conference schedule.

ODU
After 4 games this season they are 2-2 with an opponent SOS of 153.
Last season they were 3-1 with an opponent ranking of 178.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 9th toughest conference schedule.

UAB
After 8 games this season they are 7-1 with an opponent SOS of 286.
Last season they were 4-4 with an opponent ranking of 198.
Early analysis: They will be slightly better than last season thanks to the scheduling. They have the easiest conference schedule.

FAU
After 7 games this season they are 4-3 with an opponent SOS of 304.
Last season they were 4-3 with an opponent ranking of 258.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 7th toughest conference schedule.

FIU
After 7 games this season they are 5-2 with an opponent SOS of 283.
Last season they were 4-3 with an opponent ranking of 253.
Early analysis: I have them losing ground from last season especially since they have the 2nd toughest conference schedule.

UTEP
After 5 games this season they are 3-2 with an opponent SOS of 192.
Last season they were 5-0 with an opponent ranking of 288.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 13th toughest conference schedule.

MT
After 6 games this season they are 2-4 with an opponent SOS of 196.
Last season they were 3-3 with an opponent ranking of 240.
Early analysis: I have them as the last team in the conference tournament this season. They do have the 3rd toughest conference schedule.

Rice
After 7 games this season they are 5-2 with an opponent SOS of 330.
Last season they were 5-2 with an opponent ranking of 186.
Early analysis: No Tournament. Early season hype fades when you see the strength of schedule that they've played so far. They also have the toughest conference schedule.

Southern Miss
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 281.
Last season they were 2-4 with an opponent ranking of 202.
Early analysis: Still a bottom feeder, but they do have the 12th toughest conference schedule.

I’m curious where you got your SOS numbers? Currently KenPom has the following for our top teams:
WKU - 51
Marshall - 201
North Texas - 247
La Tech - 292
UAB - 310

The Tops have played a much tougher non-conference schedule than the rest of the league. 6 out of 8 opponents so far are Top 100 teams. WKU has gone 4-2 in those games with only one at home.

He is referencing conference strength of schedule.

You are looking at current OOC strength of schedule. Two different things.

FWIW - Bart Torvik currently has expected non-con SOS as:

#65 WKU - expected non-con SOS: 64
#76 UNT - expected non-con SOS: 99
#81 UAB - expected non-con SOS: 316
#87 MU - expected non-con SOS: 252
#111 ODU - expected non-con SOS: 146
#118 LT - expected non-con SOS: 276
#122 UTEP - expected non-con SOS: 131
#150 CLT - expected non-con SOS: 262
#155 UTSA - expected non-con SOS: 237
#157 FIU - expected non-con SOS: 329
#207 FAU - expected non-con SOS: 325
#221 USM - expected non-con SOS: 315
#225 MT - expected non-con SOS: 266
#278 Rice - expected non-con SOS: 334

(12-21-2020 10:36 AM)Hilltopper413 Wrote:  I’m curious where you got your SOS numbers? Currently KenPom has the following for our top teams:
WKU - 51
Marshall - 201
North Texas - 247
La Tech - 292
UAB - 310

The Tops have played a much tougher non-conference schedule than the rest of the league. 6 out of 8 opponents so far are Top 100 teams. WKU has gone 4-2 in those games with only one at home.

I created my own. WKUs SOS in mine is lower thanks to Mississippi Valley St. and Gardner Webb. My numbers are different, but the order of schedule strength seems to be similar.

Updated through games of Jan. 9

(12-21-2020 08:42 AM)Dowless Wrote:  

(12-20-2020 08:17 PM)rileylives Wrote:  A lot of depth this year, currently, Middle is the only sub .500 team.

And they're still decent.

Good to see the bottom of the league pick itself up a little bit. Now we just need UAB or Western to separate, I think our league could really do well to have one or two flagship teams this year, with the rest of us kind of picking up the middle, and the bottom end of the league not looking like dead weights as in past years..

I think UAB is over-rated with the record they have. They played 1 Top 200 team (#165 Chattanooga) and lost. 4 of their wins are sub 300 teams and a non-D1. They get 3 top 100 teams next so I wouldn't be surprised to see them at 7-4 after that stretch. I think it will be close between Marshall and WKU. They split a home and away so I could see them splitting their games between each other. A Covid-19 quarantine could actually determine who wins the conference if a top player goes out for a couple of games.

Regarding the UAB-Chattanooga game, the heart of the team Quan Jackson went down with a knee injury. He might be done for the season. He only played 15 minutes in this game before hurting his knee. UAB fought back but never recovered, losing by 3.

(12-21-2020 10:36 AM)Hilltopper413 Wrote:  

(12-20-2020 09:30 AM)Dowless Wrote:  Here is my take so far in the season. This year conference strength of schedule will be a larger factor compared to the tier scheduling system.

Marshall
After 5 games this season they are 4-1 with an opponent SOS of 161.
Last season they were 2-3 with an opponent ranking of 189.
Early analysis: They will fight WKU for regular season conference champion. They have the 10th toughest schedule for conference play.

North Texas
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 189.
Last season they were 2-4 with an opponent ranking of 175.
Early analysis: Team is slightly better this season. They have the 5th toughest conference schedule.

WKU
After 8 games this season they are 6-2 with an opponent SOS of 111.
Last season they were 6-2 with an opponent ranking of 219.
Early analysis: They are a better team this season which is scary for CUSA. They also have a weak conference schedule at 11th toughest.

La Tech
After 8 games this season they are 6-2 with an opponent SOS of 235.
Last season they were 6-2 with an opponent ranking of 220.
Early analysis: They should be about the same as last season. They have the 8th toughest conference schedule.

Charlotte
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 197.
Last season they were 3-3 with an opponent ranking of 185.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 4th toughest conference schedule.

UTSA
After 5 games this season they are 2-3 with an opponent SOS of 242.
Last season they were 0-5 with an opponent ranking of 125.
Early analysis: I have them being better, but they haven't shown it with only wins against non-D1. They have the 6th toughest conference schedule.

ODU
After 4 games this season they are 2-2 with an opponent SOS of 153.
Last season they were 3-1 with an opponent ranking of 178.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 9th toughest conference schedule.

UAB
After 8 games this season they are 7-1 with an opponent SOS of 286.
Last season they were 4-4 with an opponent ranking of 198.
Early analysis: They will be slightly better than last season thanks to the scheduling. They have the easiest conference schedule.

FAU
After 7 games this season they are 4-3 with an opponent SOS of 304.
Last season they were 4-3 with an opponent ranking of 258.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 7th toughest conference schedule.

FIU
After 7 games this season they are 5-2 with an opponent SOS of 283.
Last season they were 4-3 with an opponent ranking of 253.
Early analysis: I have them losing ground from last season especially since they have the 2nd toughest conference schedule.

UTEP
After 5 games this season they are 3-2 with an opponent SOS of 192.
Last season they were 5-0 with an opponent ranking of 288.
Early analysis: They will be about the same as last season. They have the 13th toughest conference schedule.

MT
After 6 games this season they are 2-4 with an opponent SOS of 196.
Last season they were 3-3 with an opponent ranking of 240.
Early analysis: I have them as the last team in the conference tournament this season. They do have the 3rd toughest conference schedule.

Rice
After 7 games this season they are 5-2 with an opponent SOS of 330.
Last season they were 5-2 with an opponent ranking of 186.
Early analysis: No Tournament. Early season hype fades when you see the strength of schedule that they've played so far. They also have the toughest conference schedule.

Southern Miss
After 6 games this season they are 3-3 with an opponent SOS of 281.
Last season they were 2-4 with an opponent ranking of 202.
Early analysis: Still a bottom feeder, but they do have the 12th toughest conference schedule.

I’m curious where you got your SOS numbers? Currently KenPom has the following for our top teams:
WKU - 51
Marshall - 201
North Texas - 247
La Tech - 292
UAB - 310

The Tops have played a much tougher non-conference schedule than the rest of the league. 6 out of 8 opponents so far are Top 100 teams. WKU has gone 4-2 in those games with only one at home.

....Yeah but WKU just hasn't played as many conference games. For instance, WKU (8-2) has only played 10 conference games, whereas LA Tech (12-4) has played 16. Plus, some of the games WKU missed --for example against UNT & ODU-- could have definitely been potential losses for WKU.

Tech doesn't have any OOC to lean on. We lost to LSU and ULL. Our best win was over a 12-12 UTA team.

On this F4 weekend, I brought my OOC scoreboard up-to-date. This really wasn’t such a bad season for C-USA’s MBB programs. Helps to wash away some of the embarrassment of football season.

For the post-season tournaments, I believe that all of the LT and WKU games were played in Frisco (not Denton) and I believe both of UNT’s games were played at Indianapolis. Finally, the UNT victory over Purdue was the only postseason game involving a C-USA team to go into Overtime.

If you see any errors/omissions, please let me know and I’ll make the corrections.

Thanks for keeping up with it all Cardiff.

We did do well overall this season. I think the most disappointing records were against the A-Sun and the Southern Conference. We cannot be taking losses from those conferences. UTSA's puzzling loss to UTRGV also caused us to have a losing record to the WAC.

As fans, we get a pass for this season. We couldn't help our teams win by creating a good home court advantage. That free pass ends now and we really need to be there to boost our teams, even against opponents from crappy conferences.

North Texas had a disappointing OOC. Cancelled games from other teams having Covid issues led to UNT adding tough roadies at West Virginia and at Loyola-Chicago on 2-3 days notice. Wish we could have taken one of those. Disappointing road losses to Mississippi State and Arkansas were wasted chances as well.

North Texas OOC

Big East 0-1 (Neutral)
Big 10 1-0 (Neutral)
Big 12 0-1 (Road)
MVC 0-1 (Road)
SEC 0-2 (Road x2)
Southland 1-0 (Home)
SWAC 2-0 (Home x2)
D2 1-0 (Home)