Northwestern wins out and I could still see them beaten out by Clemson/Notre Dame loser, Florida and USC. And Texas A&M and Miami only have one loss right now.

(11-29-2020 01:33 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Odds if team wins out (roughly):
100% Alabama / Florida
100% Notre Dame
100% Northwestern
97% Ohio State
82% Clemson
79% Alabama (w/LOSS)
59% Notre Dame (w/LOSS)
57% Cincinnati
47% USC
41% Texas A&M
26% BYU
19% Indiana
15% Washington
11% Wisconsin
<3% all others

With the addition of BYU-Coastal, the Cougars leap USC and Texas A&M to 48%, just behind Cincinnati, though I still believe a 12/19 game is necessary for any playoff bid. The Chanticleers debut at 3%. As always, I’m rooting for Top 4 upsets this weekend.

The Top Tier
100% Alabama / Florida
100% Notre Dame
99% Ohio State
87% Alabama (with loss)
69% Clemson
Fighting for a shot at Fourth
47% Indiana
46% Notre Dame (with loss)
44% Texas A&M
36% Cincinnati
35% USC
Need a lot of help
16% Northwestern
6% Coastal Carolina
2% Iowa State / Oklahoma
<1% Georgia & Miami

Ohio State back up to 99%; Northwestern drops from 100% to 16% with 1 off week. Indiana springs up to 47%, potentially a new playoff contender; I'm guessing FPI assumes all games are played. Not sure whether A&M's cancelled game is factored in, but they passed Cincinnati, who also missed last week.

Clemson at 69% if they win out seems low; we'd likely give them 100%. Still surprised Miami is so far down, especially after blanking Duke. If they can do the same to North Carolina, then maybe we'll see movement.. but by that point there'd have to be chaos in the Top Four this weekend for them to have any playoff hopes.

Allstate Playoff Projector: https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ll-playoff

(12-08-2020 08:08 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Allstate Playoff Projector: https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ll-playoff

Yep, those are the overall percentages and can be found in the OP link. The full FPI page allows for a rudimentary rebuilding of percentages should a team win out. Those are of interest to me because they show how much a team controls its own destiny. While Florida is only the 8th most likely team to make the playoff, they are 1 of only 3 teams more likely to make the playoffs than win-out, meaning they still control their own destiny.