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What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #1
What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
Was thinking about our thread last night referring to a large scale breakaway.

My premise here is that shuffling between Power conferences would be limited and maybe non-existent in such a scenario as it really wouldn't be necessary. The TV contracts would still act as leverage from the networks to keep things in a certain order.

Unless this breakaway caused the dissolution of at least one league then I don't think realignment as we've come to see it would be necessary. Add to that, most of the moves we've seen have been fairly disruptive and caused friction. The additional money is nice, but the leagues probably aren't signing up for more friction unless it is tied directly to a big payday. If everyone is moving up at the same time into a more independent system from the NCAA then they payday takes care of itself regardless of what conference affiliation you might have.

However, there could be a need for a few callups.

The reason for this is we might have a handful of schools call it quits on big time athletics. We can debate over the usual suspects, but for the purpose of this exercise I'm assuming each league has to replace at least one member. The reason for this need is purely practical. The TV contracts call for a certain number of games and it's easier to simply plug and play rather than alter the makeup of divisions and schedules to a significant degree...especially when accounting for an uneven number.

In addition to that, it offers an opportunity to simply pull up some large state schools that might help the Power leagues increase political influence. Those are the very schools that might have alumni that could cause problems in Legislatures and Congress alike. They are the ones who could be helped for the cost of doing business.

I'm assuming Vanderbilt calls it quits for us. Regardless of what form that takes...they could stay affiliated after all...we would need to find a new member.

There are several candidates that might fit the bill. We've discussed them before, but let me suggest that taking South Florida and Central Florida as a pair will probably pay dividends down the line. Both have become gigantic schools and will increase their influence in the state legislature as time passes.

I say take both of them because 16 schools will make certain things easier anyway. So we shore up our presence in a large state by taking those 2 and I say we add another private if we can...in the event Vanderbilt decides to completely abandon major college athletics.

I would pick SMU because my gut says they will try to compete at the highest level. They've invested a good bit in athletics and I think they want to make a go of it. Adding them would help our exposure in DFW without having to crack the Big 12.

West - Texas A&M, SMU, Arkansas, Missouri
South - LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama
East - Auburn, Tennessee, Georgia, Kentucky
Atlantic - Florida, UCF, USF, South Carolina

*Vanderbilt is affiliate
10-20-2020 06:10 PM
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Phlipper33 Offline
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RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
SMU wouldn't be horrible to replace Vanberbilt. They do seem a bit jealous of TCU moving up and have been competing more in both football and basketball in recent years. They do not have a baseball team though, I'd want them to start baseball if they did join.

I think there is something to having at least one private school in a conference as well. If Vandy was lost and replaced by another school I would think it likely to be a private school.
10-21-2020 08:17 AM
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murrdcu Offline
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RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
SMU, ECU, Tulane come to mind.
10-21-2020 05:50 PM
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Gamecock Offline
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RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
If you put a gun to my head I would say ECU or UCF because at least there is a consistent fanbase at both schools. It's not hard to imagine them getting 60k+ butts in seats for SEC games. UCF is a huge market with huge undergraduate population. ECU is smaller but at least brings in a new state/region and there is a long and proud tradition there.

They'd be very, very far down the list of actual candidates though and I'd prefer to just contract to 12 or 10 schools before adding them.
10-22-2020 08:27 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
(10-22-2020 08:27 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  If you put a gun to my head I would say ECU or UCF because at least there is a consistent fanbase at both schools. It's not hard to imagine them getting 60k+ butts in seats for SEC games. UCF is a huge market with huge undergraduate population. ECU is smaller but at least brings in a new state/region and there is a long and proud tradition there.

They'd be very, very far down the list of actual candidates though and I'd prefer to just contract to 12 or 10 schools before adding them.

Agreed.
10-22-2020 12:42 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
(10-22-2020 12:42 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(10-22-2020 08:27 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  If you put a gun to my head I would say ECU or UCF because at least there is a consistent fanbase at both schools. It's not hard to imagine them getting 60k+ butts in seats for SEC games. UCF is a huge market with huge undergraduate population. ECU is smaller but at least brings in a new state/region and there is a long and proud tradition there.

They'd be very, very far down the list of actual candidates though and I'd prefer to just contract to 12 or 10 schools before adding them.

Agreed.

Yes, if the SEC was landing Texas or Oklahoma I'd be willing to discuss T.C.U. or even Baylor as the oldest and most historic of the Texas schools. If something happened to the ACC and North Carolina wanted a Southern landing space then Duke would be appropriate to the discussion.

But let's get real. The SEC schools will minimally be making 68 million per school in payouts by 2024, if not sooner if ABC buys CBS's remaining rights out. At that kind of payout only Texas, Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame add value. Any of them could be added with a school of somewhat lesser value and possibly justify the move. So the ability of a private to get in with one of the Publics would mean that the only private schools that could remotely enter the discussion would be Baylor, T.C.U., Duke, possibly Miami, and Northwestern. And now when you remove those unlikely to move it just leaves Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor and T.C.U.

The SEC would simply remain at 13 if Vanderbilt stepped down unless Texas and Oklahoma joined. Then likely the last spot would simply go to Kansas or Texas Tech. But if a private had to be claimed TCU's advantage is an actually presence in DFW and Baylor's advantage is its position relative to Texas Higher Education. My money would be on Kansas or Texas Tech.

But here's the real issue. If there is a breakaway there will be consolidation, not expansion, and there is a strong possibility that we wind up as one closed league in which our conference titles simply become divisional names for what would be more or less a regional placement of breakaway schools regardless of their old conference affiliations.
10-22-2020 05:07 PM
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Gamecock Offline
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RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
(10-22-2020 05:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-22-2020 12:42 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(10-22-2020 08:27 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  If you put a gun to my head I would say ECU or UCF because at least there is a consistent fanbase at both schools. It's not hard to imagine them getting 60k+ butts in seats for SEC games. UCF is a huge market with huge undergraduate population. ECU is smaller but at least brings in a new state/region and there is a long and proud tradition there.

They'd be very, very far down the list of actual candidates though and I'd prefer to just contract to 12 or 10 schools before adding them.

Agreed.

Yes, if the SEC was landing Texas or Oklahoma I'd be willing to discuss T.C.U. or even Baylor as the oldest and most historic of the Texas schools. If something happened to the ACC and North Carolina wanted a Southern landing space then Duke would be appropriate to the discussion.

But let's get real. The SEC schools will minimally be making 68 million per school in payouts by 2024, if not sooner if ABC buys CBS's remaining rights out. At that kind of payout only Texas, Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame add value. Any of them could be added with a school of somewhat lesser value and possibly justify the move. So the ability of a private to get in with one of the Publics would mean that the only private schools that could remotely enter the discussion would be Baylor, T.C.U., Duke, possibly Miami, and Northwestern. And now when you remove those unlikely to move it just leaves Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor and T.C.U.

The SEC would simply remain at 13 if Vanderbilt stepped down unless Texas and Oklahoma joined. Then likely the last spot would simply go to Kansas or Texas Tech. But if a private had to be claimed TCU's advantage is an actually presence in DFW and Baylor's advantage is its position relative to Texas Higher Education. My money would be on Kansas or Texas Tech.

But here's the real issue. If there is a breakaway there will be consolidation, not expansion, and there is a strong possibility that we wind up as one closed league in which our conference titles simply become divisional names for what would be more or less a regional placement of breakaway schools regardless of their old conference affiliations.

I agree. Those schools that you listed are really the only ones that add value. I think FSU and Clemson could possibly be sold to membership as well. Maybe UNC and Duke as a pair. Then there's a handful of schools like TCU or Oklahoma St that maybe we could live with if they're coming with another bigger fish. But it's a small pool and once you eliminate the absurd possibilities it's really a very tiny group.
(This post was last modified: 10-26-2020 01:56 PM by Gamecock.)
10-26-2020 01:56 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
1) Assuming Kentucky isn’t the school that leaves, option #1 should be Cincinnati.
2) If Cincinnati isn’t available or if Kentucky leaves, then I’d go with these 5, in this order:
a) South Florida
b) Central Florida
c) SMU
d) East Carolina
e) Houston or Memphis - whichever school is the better option at that time
10-30-2020 04:34 AM
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murrdcu Offline
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RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
(10-30-2020 04:34 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  1) Assuming Kentucky isn’t the school that leaves, option #1 should be Cincinnati.
2) If Cincinnati isn’t available or if Kentucky leaves, then I’d go with these 5, in this order:
a) South Florida
b) Central Florida
c) SMU
d) East Carolina
e) Houston or Memphis - whichever school is the better
option at that time

Realistically, none of the G5 schools appear to meet SEC expansion needs nor do any bring enough revenue to reach the medium value.
11-01-2020 05:18 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
(11-01-2020 05:18 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(10-30-2020 04:34 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  1) Assuming Kentucky isn’t the school that leaves, option #1 should be Cincinnati.
2) If Cincinnati isn’t available or if Kentucky leaves, then I’d go with these 5, in this order:
a) South Florida
b) Central Florida
c) SMU
d) East Carolina
e) Houston or Memphis - whichever school is the better
option at that time

Realistically, none of the G5 schools appear to meet SEC expansion needs nor do any bring enough revenue to reach the medium value.

Realism was not a part of the thread lol
11-01-2020 08:52 PM
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murrdcu Offline
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Post: #11
RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
(10-26-2020 01:56 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-22-2020 05:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-22-2020 12:42 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(10-22-2020 08:27 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  If you put a gun to my head I would say ECU or UCF because at least there is a consistent fanbase at both schools. It's not hard to imagine them getting 60k+ butts in seats for SEC games. UCF is a huge market with huge undergraduate population. ECU is smaller but at least brings in a new state/region and there is a long and proud tradition there.

They'd be very, very far down the list of actual candidates though and I'd prefer to just contract to 12 or 10 schools before adding them.

Agreed.

Yes, if the SEC was landing Texas or Oklahoma I'd be willing to discuss T.C.U. or even Baylor as the oldest and most historic of the Texas schools. If something happened to the ACC and North Carolina wanted a Southern landing space then Duke would be appropriate to the discussion.

But let's get real. The SEC schools will minimally be making 68 million per school in payouts by 2024, if not sooner if ABC buys CBS's remaining rights out. At that kind of payout only Texas, Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame add value. Any of them could be added with a school of somewhat lesser value and possibly justify the move. So the ability of a private to get in with one of the Publics would mean that the only private schools that could remotely enter the discussion would be Baylor, T.C.U., Duke, possibly Miami, and Northwestern. And now when you remove those unlikely to move it just leaves Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor and T.C.U.

The SEC would simply remain at 13 if Vanderbilt stepped down unless Texas and Oklahoma joined. Then likely the last spot would simply go to Kansas or Texas Tech. But if a private had to be claimed TCU's advantage is an actually presence in DFW and Baylor's advantage is its position relative to Texas Higher Education. My money would be on Kansas or Texas Tech.

But here's the real issue. If there is a breakaway there will be consolidation, not expansion, and there is a strong possibility that we wind up as one closed league in which our conference titles simply become divisional names for what would be more or less a regional placement of breakaway schools regardless of their old conference affiliations.

I agree. Those schools that you listed are really the only ones that add value. I think FSU and Clemson could possibly be sold to membership as well. Maybe UNC and Duke as a pair. Then there's a handful of schools like TCU or Oklahoma St that maybe we could live with if they're coming with another bigger fish. But it's a small pool and once you eliminate the absurd possibilities it's really a very tiny group.

(11-01-2020 08:52 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 05:18 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(10-30-2020 04:34 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  1) Assuming Kentucky isn’t the school that leaves, option #1 should be Cincinnati.
2) If Cincinnati isn’t available or if Kentucky leaves, then I’d go with these 5, in this order:
a) South Florida
b) Central Florida
c) SMU
d) East Carolina
e) Houston or Memphis - whichever school is the better
option at that time

Realistically, none of the G5 schools appear to meet SEC expansion needs nor do any bring enough revenue to reach the medium value.

Realism was not a part of the thread lol

My bad COGS
11-02-2020 08:38 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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RE: What if we had to replace someone with a G5?
(11-02-2020 08:38 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(10-26-2020 01:56 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(10-22-2020 05:07 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-22-2020 12:42 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(10-22-2020 08:27 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  If you put a gun to my head I would say ECU or UCF because at least there is a consistent fanbase at both schools. It's not hard to imagine them getting 60k+ butts in seats for SEC games. UCF is a huge market with huge undergraduate population. ECU is smaller but at least brings in a new state/region and there is a long and proud tradition there.

They'd be very, very far down the list of actual candidates though and I'd prefer to just contract to 12 or 10 schools before adding them.

Agreed.

Yes, if the SEC was landing Texas or Oklahoma I'd be willing to discuss T.C.U. or even Baylor as the oldest and most historic of the Texas schools. If something happened to the ACC and North Carolina wanted a Southern landing space then Duke would be appropriate to the discussion.

But let's get real. The SEC schools will minimally be making 68 million per school in payouts by 2024, if not sooner if ABC buys CBS's remaining rights out. At that kind of payout only Texas, Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, and Notre Dame add value. Any of them could be added with a school of somewhat lesser value and possibly justify the move. So the ability of a private to get in with one of the Publics would mean that the only private schools that could remotely enter the discussion would be Baylor, T.C.U., Duke, possibly Miami, and Northwestern. And now when you remove those unlikely to move it just leaves Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor and T.C.U.

The SEC would simply remain at 13 if Vanderbilt stepped down unless Texas and Oklahoma joined. Then likely the last spot would simply go to Kansas or Texas Tech. But if a private had to be claimed TCU's advantage is an actually presence in DFW and Baylor's advantage is its position relative to Texas Higher Education. My money would be on Kansas or Texas Tech.

But here's the real issue. If there is a breakaway there will be consolidation, not expansion, and there is a strong possibility that we wind up as one closed league in which our conference titles simply become divisional names for what would be more or less a regional placement of breakaway schools regardless of their old conference affiliations.

I agree. Those schools that you listed are really the only ones that add value. I think FSU and Clemson could possibly be sold to membership as well. Maybe UNC and Duke as a pair. Then there's a handful of schools like TCU or Oklahoma St that maybe we could live with if they're coming with another bigger fish. But it's a small pool and once you eliminate the absurd possibilities it's really a very tiny group.

(11-01-2020 08:52 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(11-01-2020 05:18 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  
(10-30-2020 04:34 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  1) Assuming Kentucky isn’t the school that leaves, option #1 should be Cincinnati.
2) If Cincinnati isn’t available or if Kentucky leaves, then I’d go with these 5, in this order:
a) South Florida
b) Central Florida
c) SMU
d) East Carolina
e) Houston or Memphis - whichever school is the better
option at that time

Realistically, none of the G5 schools appear to meet SEC expansion needs nor do any bring enough revenue to reach the medium value.

Realism was not a part of the thread lol

My bad COGS

TCU prior to joining the Big East then XII was probably the closest any non-power school will ever get to be a “good enough” candidate for the SEC.
11-02-2020 04:17 PM
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