1. Oklahoma and Kansas agree to move to the SEC. The lure of greener pastures is too much to pass up.

2. Texas wants to keep the Big 12 together, but playing football in the league is no longer viable. They seek out independence as the best of what they consider nothing but less than ideal options.

3. West Virginia wants to move to the ACC at this point, but Notre Dame doesn't like the idea of going all in yet.

4. A deal is struck to move West Virginia into the SEC with Vanderbilt dropping to partial membership. Their football team still gets 4 or 5 SEC games a year, and their other sports are still fully involved.

5. Texas build a coalition around keeping the Big 12 together:

The remaining members of Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor make a few additions. BYU, Houston, UCF, and USF all come aboard.

They maintain their 9 game round robin for the conference championship.

Meanwhile, Texas plays an independent schedule in football with the standard 5 game deal with the Big 12. Texas maintains their annual game with Oklahoma.

(10-04-2020 11:21 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  1. Oklahoma and Kansas agree to move to the SEC. The lure of greener pastures is too much to pass up.

2. Texas wants to keep the Big 12 together, but playing football in the league is no longer viable. They seek out independence as the best of what they consider nothing but less than ideal options.

3. West Virginia wants to move to the ACC at this point, but Notre Dame doesn't like the idea of going all in yet.

4. A deal is struck to move West Virginia into the SEC with Vanderbilt dropping to partial membership. Their football team still gets 4 or 5 SEC games a year, and their other sports are still fully involved.

5. Texas build a coalition around keeping the Big 12 together:

The remaining members of Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor make a few additions. BYU, Houston, UCF, and USF all come aboard.

They maintain their 9 game round robin for the conference championship.

Meanwhile, Texas plays an independent schedule in football with the standard 5 game deal with the Big 12. Texas maintains their annual game with Oklahoma.

Okay, Let's say you are correct about Oklahoma and Kansas. And for the sake of this scenario I'll go along with Vanderbilt becoming a partial and West Virginia joining in full.

At this point there are but 7 schools left in the Big 12. The problem I see for Texas is that they need a workable schedule to maintain their SOS. After all 2 of the 4 top football schools are gone in OU and WVU from the Big 12. Texas and Oklahoma State are but the remaining two. That isn't enough to keep the Big 12 viable and backfilling from the AAC won't work because ESPN fully owns them on the cheap.

Let's say Texas agrees to 5 games with the ACC, but there are some stipulations. They will rotate Miami and Florida State on the schedule and will insist that they rotate North Carolina and Virginia, and rotate Georgia Tech/Clemson/WakeForest annually. The will rotate Virginia Tech, Louisville, and North Carolina State and will rotate B.C., Pitt, and Syracuse. They get ESPN to get Aggy to play annually and Oklahoma to play annually and for Arkansas to play annually.

So Texas's schedule looks like this:
FSU/MIami
UNC/UVa/Duke
Georgia Tech/Clemson/Wake Forest
N.C. State/VaTech/Louisville
B.C./Pitt?Syracuse
And play annuall:
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Texas A&M

Then they are free to schedule Notre Dame, Baylor, Texas Tech, and TCU if they are so inclined.

That's 12 solid games a year for the Texas fan base and 4 Texas schools to rotate home and away so with their 5 home games and OU at Dallas that's a guaranteed 7 games in Texas a year counting the two away Texas schools and Oklahoma.

They'd go for that.

Baylor, Texas Tech, T.C.U., Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Iowa State all join the best of the AAC (Central Florida, Houston, S.M.U., Cincinnati, South Florida, Tulane, Memphis, Tulsa)

Play with that and let me know what you think.

(10-04-2020 11:21 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  1. Oklahoma and Kansas agree to move to the SEC. The lure of greener pastures is too much to pass up.

2. Texas wants to keep the Big 12 together, but playing football in the league is no longer viable. They seek out independence as the best of what they consider nothing but less than ideal options.

3. West Virginia wants to move to the ACC at this point, but Notre Dame doesn't like the idea of going all in yet.

4. A deal is struck to move West Virginia into the SEC with Vanderbilt dropping to partial membership. Their football team still gets 4 or 5 SEC games a year, and their other sports are still fully involved.

5. Texas build a coalition around keeping the Big 12 together:

The remaining members of Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor make a few additions. BYU, Houston, UCF, and USF all come aboard.

They maintain their 9 game round robin for the conference championship.

Meanwhile, Texas plays an independent schedule in football with the standard 5 game deal with the Big 12. Texas maintains their annual game with Oklahoma.

I would also add the possibility of a disgruntled Nebraska leaving the Big Ten after this year’s theatrics from both sides. Nebraska has fan, administration and political support to move at this stage if they so desire.

For fun, I’ll say Nebraska starts looking around, Big 12 is a natural fit. Texas is still a huge thorn there, so NU-L explores the SEC option just like Missouri did years ago. Nebraska separates from Big Ten and joins the SEC. Nebraska and Missouri recruit Oklahoma heavily, SEC lands OU or WVU as the fall back option.

Big Ten looks at OU to fill Nebraska’s spot, but sooners stay to keep OSU and Texas on their schedule. Big Ten stays put at 13 members after Notre Dame turns down latest offer.

Big 12, down to 9 members, consults with TV broadcasters about selecting a replacement member for departed WVU.

(10-05-2020 01:55 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(10-04-2020 11:21 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  1. Oklahoma and Kansas agree to move to the SEC. The lure of greener pastures is too much to pass up.

2. Texas wants to keep the Big 12 together, but playing football in the league is no longer viable. They seek out independence as the best of what they consider nothing but less than ideal options.

3. West Virginia wants to move to the ACC at this point, but Notre Dame doesn't like the idea of going all in yet.

4. A deal is struck to move West Virginia into the SEC with Vanderbilt dropping to partial membership. Their football team still gets 4 or 5 SEC games a year, and their other sports are still fully involved.

5. Texas build a coalition around keeping the Big 12 together:

The remaining members of Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor make a few additions. BYU, Houston, UCF, and USF all come aboard.

They maintain their 9 game round robin for the conference championship.

Meanwhile, Texas plays an independent schedule in football with the standard 5 game deal with the Big 12. Texas maintains their annual game with Oklahoma.

I would also add the possibility of a disgruntled Nebraska leaving the Big Ten after this year’s theatrics from both sides. Nebraska has fan, administration and political support to move at this stage if they so desire.

For fun, I’ll say Nebraska starts looking around, Big 12 is a natural fit. Texas is still a huge thorn there, so NU-L explores the SEC option just like Missouri did years ago. Nebraska separates from Big Ten and joins the SEC. Nebraska and Missouri recruit Oklahoma heavily, SEC lands OU or WVU as the fall back option.

Big Ten looks at OU to fill Nebraska’s spot, but sooners stay to keep OSU and Texas on their schedule. Big Ten stays put at 13 members after Notre Dame turns down latest offer.

Big 12, down to 9 members, consults with TV broadcasters about selecting a replacement member for departed WVU.

I think we’d hear either BYU or Cincinnati being welcomed into the XII.

It's as simple as this:

If ESPN buys all of the Big 12's rights then look for the Big 12 to expand, but with choices ESPN wants to land.

If ESPN does no buy all of the Big 12's rights look for the SEC to expand with brands to which ESPN wants full access.

As to Nebraska, I could see their return to the Big 12 but I don't ever see them in the SEC. Why? Look at a map of the United States and calculate the SEC's travel distances to Lincoln. You will find your answer.

If the SEC expands with Oklahoma & Texas or even Oklahoma & Kansas or even Oklahoma & Oklahoma State the SEC's expansion will be over. Texas knows this. They also know the SEC would likely take either of the other pairings because they literally make our media rights totals uncatchable. Should that happen the farthest West the SEC will ever Go would be a line from Dallas north into Oklahoma and possibly Kansas. Nebraska is a bridge too far and for better or worse their future is in the Big 10.

Now if Texas and Oklahoma commit to the Big 12 then we can talk about Nebraska heading back to the Big 12, but as long as either of those two departs there is no way Nebraska returns. ESPN buying all of the Big 12 rights and expanding with Brigham Young and Nebraska is a winner. That can be done without ever having to touch the PAC.

The question is should Nebraska ever return to the Big 12 who is left for the Big 10 to pursue?

(10-05-2020 02:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It's as simple as this:

If ESPN buys all of the Big 12's rights then look for the Big 12 to expand, but with choices ESPN wants to land.

If ESPN does no buy all of the Big 12's rights look for the SEC to expand with brands to which ESPN wants full access.

As to Nebraska, I could see their return to the Big 12 but I don't ever see them in the SEC. Why? Look at a map of the United States and calculate the SEC's travel distances to Lincoln. You will find your answer.

If the SEC expands with Oklahoma & Texas or even Oklahoma & Kansas or even Oklahoma & Oklahoma State the SEC's expansion will be over. Texas knows this. They also know the SEC would likely take either of the other pairings because they literally make our media rights totals uncatchable. Should that happen the farthest West the SEC will ever Go would be a line from Dallas north into Oklahoma and possibly Kansas. Nebraska is a bridge too far and for better or worse their future is in the Big 10.

Now if Texas and Oklahoma commit to the Big 12 then we can talk about Nebraska heading back to the Big 12, but as long as either of those two departs there is no way Nebraska returns. ESPN buying all of the Big 12 rights and expanding with Brigham Young and Nebraska is a winner. That can be done without ever having to touch the PAC.

The question is should Nebraska ever return to the Big 12 who is left for the Big 10 to pursue?

If Boren’s words still hold true, Oklahoma would have to move with either Texas or OSU to even consider the move. The extra money would come from the Tier I upgrade and renegotiation from CBS’ current deal.

(10-05-2020 02:49 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(10-05-2020 02:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It's as simple as this:

If ESPN buys all of the Big 12's rights then look for the Big 12 to expand, but with choices ESPN wants to land.

If ESPN does no buy all of the Big 12's rights look for the SEC to expand with brands to which ESPN wants full access.

As to Nebraska, I could see their return to the Big 12 but I don't ever see them in the SEC. Why? Look at a map of the United States and calculate the SEC's travel distances to Lincoln. You will find your answer.

If the SEC expands with Oklahoma & Texas or even Oklahoma & Kansas or even Oklahoma & Oklahoma State the SEC's expansion will be over. Texas knows this. They also know the SEC would likely take either of the other pairings because they literally make our media rights totals uncatchable. Should that happen the farthest West the SEC will ever Go would be a line from Dallas north into Oklahoma and possibly Kansas. Nebraska is a bridge too far and for better or worse their future is in the Big 10.

Now if Texas and Oklahoma commit to the Big 12 then we can talk about Nebraska heading back to the Big 12, but as long as either of those two departs there is no way Nebraska returns. ESPN buying all of the Big 12 rights and expanding with Brigham Young and Nebraska is a winner. That can be done without ever having to touch the PAC.

The question is should Nebraska ever return to the Big 12 who is left for the Big 10 to pursue?

If Boren’s words still hold true, Oklahoma would have to move with either Texas or OSU to even consider the move. The extra money would come from the Tier I upgrade and renegotiation from CBS’ current deal.

There is no renegotiation with the CBS current deal because there's no CBS current deal left to worry about. It will be 2023 before OU or OSU could leave the GOR with the Big 12 so no move happens until the 2024 season. The moves could be worked out in 2023 but by 2024 the GOR is null and void and exit fees will be the same 1 year of current Big 12 revenue.

The increase doesn't have to be more than the status quo on the SEC's new contract the lowest amount being 68 million but with some insiders (thinking Thompson here) estimating it closer to 72 million per school.

OU if they joined with either Texas or OSU would make the move for the SEC's standard payout which will by a wide margin be the industries leading payout.

Some think the move may be priced in at that amount already. If not the SEC could easily see that number jump to the 73 to 77 million range with UT and OU and the 73 million range with OU and OSU.

Here's the timeline you need to keep in mind:
CBS's current contract with the SEC runs through the 2023 season.

ABC was negotiating to buyout the remaining 3 years of the CBS contract in Feb of this year.

The 2020-1 season was not up for negotiation and we are playing that now.

ABC is attempting to buyout the 2021-2, 2022-3 and the 2023-4 seasons. If they do the SEC gets their raise early. If not then 2023-4 will be the first with ABC/ESPN holding all of the rights.

The Big 12 and PAC GOR's expire at the end of the 2023-4 season. ABC/ESPN timed up the contracted period with this in mind. If they go all in for the Big 12 contract there will be no expansion out of the Big 12 and likely the Big 12 will expand.

If ESPN/ABC doesn't go after the Big 12 rights in full then they have already planned to raid the Big 12 of its top brands.

I don't know how to make it any plainer than that.

Either way the worst the SEC will make in 2023-4 is 68 million with 72 believed to be the final figure by more than 1 insider. I suppose we will hear all of this when the ABC negotiations for the remaining years of the CBS contract are announced. if that deal is already done then CBS probably doesn't want it announced until the end of this season. Also CBS may be negotiating games from other of ESPN's contracts so that they still have the 2:30 time slot just not with the SEC being a guaranteed game for them and if so that deal is between them and ESPN/ABC and not the SEC so it wouldn't impact our payouts.

Now if ESPN/ABC go after the Big 12's rights in total then expansion for the Big 12 could entail Nebraska (if they really wish to leave the Big 10), the PAC schools (if they are still stuck dead last in revenue) or from B.Y.U..

What I don't expect to see are any schools leaving the SEC or ACC.

Now if Nebraska left the Big 10 I think that could start a very interesting chain of events but that's another thread.

(10-05-2020 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-05-2020 02:49 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(10-05-2020 02:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It's as simple as this:

If ESPN buys all of the Big 12's rights then look for the Big 12 to expand, but with choices ESPN wants to land.

If ESPN does no buy all of the Big 12's rights look for the SEC to expand with brands to which ESPN wants full access.

As to Nebraska, I could see their return to the Big 12 but I don't ever see them in the SEC. Why? Look at a map of the United States and calculate the SEC's travel distances to Lincoln. You will find your answer.

If the SEC expands with Oklahoma & Texas or even Oklahoma & Kansas or even Oklahoma & Oklahoma State the SEC's expansion will be over. Texas knows this. They also know the SEC would likely take either of the other pairings because they literally make our media rights totals uncatchable. Should that happen the farthest West the SEC will ever Go would be a line from Dallas north into Oklahoma and possibly Kansas. Nebraska is a bridge too far and for better or worse their future is in the Big 10.

Now if Texas and Oklahoma commit to the Big 12 then we can talk about Nebraska heading back to the Big 12, but as long as either of those two departs there is no way Nebraska returns. ESPN buying all of the Big 12 rights and expanding with Brigham Young and Nebraska is a winner. That can be done without ever having to touch the PAC.

The question is should Nebraska ever return to the Big 12 who is left for the Big 10 to pursue?

If Boren’s words still hold true, Oklahoma would have to move with either Texas or OSU to even consider the move. The extra money would come from the Tier I upgrade and renegotiation from CBS’ current deal.

There is no renegotiation with the CBS current deal because there's no CBS current deal left to worry about. It will be 2023 before OU or OSU could leave the GOR with the Big 12 so no move happens until the 2024 season. The moves could be worked out in 2023 but by 2024 the GOR is null and void and exit fees will be the same 1 year of current Big 12 revenue.

The increase doesn't have to be more than the status quo on the SEC's new contract the lowest amount being 68 million but with some insiders (thinking Thompson here) estimating it closer to 72 million per school.

OU if they joined with either Texas or OSU would make the move for the SEC's standard payout which will by a wide margin be the industries leading payout.

Some think the move may be priced in at that amount already. If not the SEC could easily see that number jump to the 73 to 77 million range with UT and OU and the 73 million range with OU and OSU.

Here's the timeline you need to keep in mind:
CBS's current contract with the SEC runs through the 2023 season.

ABC was negotiating to buyout the remaining 3 years of the CBS contract in Feb of this year.

The 2020-1 season was not up for negotiation and we are playing that now.

ABC is attempting to buyout the 2021-2, 2022-3 and the 2023-4 seasons. If they do the SEC gets their raise early. If not then 2023-4 will be the first with ABC/ESPN holding all of the rights.

The Big 12 and PAC GOR's expire at the end of the 2023-4 season. ABC/ESPN timed up the contracted period with this in mind. If they go all in for the Big 12 contract there will be no expansion out of the Big 12 and likely the Big 12 will expand.

If ESPN/ABC doesn't go after the Big 12 rights in full then they have already planned to raid the Big 12 of its top brands.

I don't know how to make it any plainer than that.

Either way the worst the SEC will make in 2023-4 is 68 million with 72 believed to be the final figure by more than 1 insider. I suppose we will hear all of this when the ABC negotiations for the remaining years of the CBS contract are announced. if that deal is already done then CBS probably doesn't want it announced until the end of this season. Also CBS may be negotiating games from other of ESPN's contracts so that they still have the 2:30 time slot just not with the SEC being a guaranteed game for them and if so that deal is between them and ESPN/ABC and not the SEC so it wouldn't impact our payouts.

Now if ESPN/ABC go after the Big 12's rights in total then expansion for the Big 12 could entail Nebraska (if they really wish to leave the Big 10), the PAC schools (if they are still stuck dead last in revenue) or from B.Y.U..

What I don't expect to see are any schools leaving the SEC or ACC.

Now if Nebraska left the Big 10 I think that could start a very interesting chain of events but that's another thread.

Well, it's easier to build a league around Oklahoma and Texas than without OU and UT.

If the Big 12 expands West, very possible I think, then the only wrinkle is finding a new home for West Virginia because their travel would be outrageous. It's already less than ideal, but there's just not a better option.

Makes sense to me that the Big 12 could take a handful of schools, shift WVU to another league, and everything's a little more balanced for travel. It's also more balanced for TV as West Virginia's fans are predominantly in the East.

The trick is finding a league suitable for WVU.

Just as an aside, I'm doubtful that CBS and ABC have completed their negotiations at this point. Under normal circumstances, I would think they would have, but the economy is up in the air and we still don't have all the answers with regard to how long the pandemic will be affecting everyday life. With that in mind, making those sorts of long term projections for payouts and scheduling might not be best. Might be better to wait another season before all that is settled.

(10-06-2020 10:29 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(10-05-2020 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-05-2020 02:49 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(10-05-2020 02:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It's as simple as this:

If ESPN buys all of the Big 12's rights then look for the Big 12 to expand, but with choices ESPN wants to land.

If ESPN does no buy all of the Big 12's rights look for the SEC to expand with brands to which ESPN wants full access.

As to Nebraska, I could see their return to the Big 12 but I don't ever see them in the SEC. Why? Look at a map of the United States and calculate the SEC's travel distances to Lincoln. You will find your answer.

If the SEC expands with Oklahoma & Texas or even Oklahoma & Kansas or even Oklahoma & Oklahoma State the SEC's expansion will be over. Texas knows this. They also know the SEC would likely take either of the other pairings because they literally make our media rights totals uncatchable. Should that happen the farthest West the SEC will ever Go would be a line from Dallas north into Oklahoma and possibly Kansas. Nebraska is a bridge too far and for better or worse their future is in the Big 10.

Now if Texas and Oklahoma commit to the Big 12 then we can talk about Nebraska heading back to the Big 12, but as long as either of those two departs there is no way Nebraska returns. ESPN buying all of the Big 12 rights and expanding with Brigham Young and Nebraska is a winner. That can be done without ever having to touch the PAC.

The question is should Nebraska ever return to the Big 12 who is left for the Big 10 to pursue?

If Boren’s words still hold true, Oklahoma would have to move with either Texas or OSU to even consider the move. The extra money would come from the Tier I upgrade and renegotiation from CBS’ current deal.

There is no renegotiation with the CBS current deal because there's no CBS current deal left to worry about. It will be 2023 before OU or OSU could leave the GOR with the Big 12 so no move happens until the 2024 season. The moves could be worked out in 2023 but by 2024 the GOR is null and void and exit fees will be the same 1 year of current Big 12 revenue.

The increase doesn't have to be more than the status quo on the SEC's new contract the lowest amount being 68 million but with some insiders (thinking Thompson here) estimating it closer to 72 million per school.

OU if they joined with either Texas or OSU would make the move for the SEC's standard payout which will by a wide margin be the industries leading payout.

Some think the move may be priced in at that amount already. If not the SEC could easily see that number jump to the 73 to 77 million range with UT and OU and the 73 million range with OU and OSU.

Here's the timeline you need to keep in mind:
CBS's current contract with the SEC runs through the 2023 season.

ABC was negotiating to buyout the remaining 3 years of the CBS contract in Feb of this year.

The 2020-1 season was not up for negotiation and we are playing that now.

ABC is attempting to buyout the 2021-2, 2022-3 and the 2023-4 seasons. If they do the SEC gets their raise early. If not then 2023-4 will be the first with ABC/ESPN holding all of the rights.

The Big 12 and PAC GOR's expire at the end of the 2023-4 season. ABC/ESPN timed up the contracted period with this in mind. If they go all in for the Big 12 contract there will be no expansion out of the Big 12 and likely the Big 12 will expand.

If ESPN/ABC doesn't go after the Big 12 rights in full then they have already planned to raid the Big 12 of its top brands.

I don't know how to make it any plainer than that.

Either way the worst the SEC will make in 2023-4 is 68 million with 72 believed to be the final figure by more than 1 insider. I suppose we will hear all of this when the ABC negotiations for the remaining years of the CBS contract are announced. if that deal is already done then CBS probably doesn't want it announced until the end of this season. Also CBS may be negotiating games from other of ESPN's contracts so that they still have the 2:30 time slot just not with the SEC being a guaranteed game for them and if so that deal is between them and ESPN/ABC and not the SEC so it wouldn't impact our payouts.

Now if ESPN/ABC go after the Big 12's rights in total then expansion for the Big 12 could entail Nebraska (if they really wish to leave the Big 10), the PAC schools (if they are still stuck dead last in revenue) or from B.Y.U..

What I don't expect to see are any schools leaving the SEC or ACC.

Now if Nebraska left the Big 10 I think that could start a very interesting chain of events but that's another thread.

Well, it's easier to build a league around Oklahoma and Texas than without OU and UT.

If the Big 12 expands West, very possible I think, then the only wrinkle is finding a new home for West Virginia because their travel would be outrageous. It's already less than ideal, but there's just not a better option.

Makes sense to me that the Big 12 could take a handful of schools, shift WVU to another league, and everything's a little more balanced for travel. It's also more balanced for TV as West Virginia's fans are predominantly in the East.

The trick is finding a league suitable for WVU.

Just as an aside, I'm doubtful that CBS and ABC have completed their negotiations at this point. Under normal circumstances, I would think they would have, but the economy is up in the air and we still don't have all the answers with regard to how long the pandemic will be affecting everyday life. With that in mind, making those sorts of long term projections for payouts and scheduling might not be best. Might be better to wait another season before all that is settled.

The payouts and contract are done. The details simply haven't been released and possibly for some interesting reasons. The only thing that is in question, and it could easily have been held up by COVID 19, is ABC's attempt to buy out the remaining 3 years on the CBS contract following this season. But most industry insiders who have written or commented on this seem to think that CBS would have some compelling reasons to let the SEC go and ABC would have some solid reasons for acquiring the rights early. Disney as a whole simply has way too much inventory that CBS could profitably use whether in sports or not from which to offer access and programming for CBS to simply pass.

As to what happens with the Big 12 I go back to whether or not ESPN fully pursues their rights. If they do they'll be around and likely used to pick up other programs or markets that ESPN wants to control. If not they are likely to be parsed.

For the record the details on the contract were to be released at the SEC's spring meeting, but alas COVID stopped the meeting and the rescheduled meeting. So we wait.

The 23 million dollar increase in T1 rights per school is a given. So 68.5 million is really the lowest starting point. Thompson (who handles advertising for Disney) felt like when the details were announced the figure could be as high as 72 million per school. The latter figure begs suspicion. Is realignment baked into those numbers? If so there's your biggest reason nothing has been released. OU will be in negotiations for a new T3 deal at the end of this season. Let's wait and see what ESPN does. Right now ESPN holds all T3 rights to the Big 12 except for those of Oklahoma. If ESPN is going to make a total bid for Big 12 rights they must first acquire OU's T3. Oklahoma could sign a 1 year extension with FOX taking them through the 2022-3 season. If they make that move then OU likely has plans beyond 2023 for which they would need their T3 rights in the hands of someone other than FOX. They can't sign a new 7 year T3 deal with FOX and move to the SEC. They can't sign an new T3 deal with ESPN and move to the Big 10. But they could sign an new ESPN T3 rights deal and remain in a Big 12 totally controlled by ESPN. There's your tell.

I’ve thought recently that both Texas and USC could go independent. Here’s how it’d play out:

For football, Texas and USC play as independents - scheduling each other and Notre Dame annually.

The PAC reorganizes as:
West: California, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, Washington, Washington St
East: Arizona, Arizona St, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech, Utah

The XII, renamed XIV, reorganizes as:
West: Baylor, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, SMU, TCU
East: Central Florida, Cincinnati, East Carolina, Memphis, South Florida, Temple, West Virginia

USC joins the PAC as a non-football member with 5 guaranteed football games with the PAC. Texas joins the XIV as a non-football member with 5 guaranteed football games with the XIV + annual games with Oklahoma and Texas Tech.

Navy goes independent.

MT WEST expands to 16 and becomes:
West: Boise St, Fresno St, Hawaii, Nevada, San Diego St, San Jose St, UNLV, Utah St
East: Air Force, Colorado St, New Mexico, Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, UTEP, Wyoming

(10-06-2020 11:09 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-06-2020 10:29 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(10-05-2020 03:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-05-2020 02:49 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(10-05-2020 02:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  It's as simple as this:

If ESPN buys all of the Big 12's rights then look for the Big 12 to expand, but with choices ESPN wants to land.

If ESPN does no buy all of the Big 12's rights look for the SEC to expand with brands to which ESPN wants full access.

As to Nebraska, I could see their return to the Big 12 but I don't ever see them in the SEC. Why? Look at a map of the United States and calculate the SEC's travel distances to Lincoln. You will find your answer.

If the SEC expands with Oklahoma & Texas or even Oklahoma & Kansas or even Oklahoma & Oklahoma State the SEC's expansion will be over. Texas knows this. They also know the SEC would likely take either of the other pairings because they literally make our media rights totals uncatchable. Should that happen the farthest West the SEC will ever Go would be a line from Dallas north into Oklahoma and possibly Kansas. Nebraska is a bridge too far and for better or worse their future is in the Big 10.

Now if Texas and Oklahoma commit to the Big 12 then we can talk about Nebraska heading back to the Big 12, but as long as either of those two departs there is no way Nebraska returns. ESPN buying all of the Big 12 rights and expanding with Brigham Young and Nebraska is a winner. That can be done without ever having to touch the PAC.

The question is should Nebraska ever return to the Big 12 who is left for the Big 10 to pursue?

If Boren’s words still hold true, Oklahoma would have to move with either Texas or OSU to even consider the move. The extra money would come from the Tier I upgrade and renegotiation from CBS’ current deal.

There is no renegotiation with the CBS current deal because there's no CBS current deal left to worry about. It will be 2023 before OU or OSU could leave the GOR with the Big 12 so no move happens until the 2024 season. The moves could be worked out in 2023 but by 2024 the GOR is null and void and exit fees will be the same 1 year of current Big 12 revenue.

The increase doesn't have to be more than the status quo on the SEC's new contract the lowest amount being 68 million but with some insiders (thinking Thompson here) estimating it closer to 72 million per school.

OU if they joined with either Texas or OSU would make the move for the SEC's standard payout which will by a wide margin be the industries leading payout.

Some think the move may be priced in at that amount already. If not the SEC could easily see that number jump to the 73 to 77 million range with UT and OU and the 73 million range with OU and OSU.

Here's the timeline you need to keep in mind:
CBS's current contract with the SEC runs through the 2023 season.

ABC was negotiating to buyout the remaining 3 years of the CBS contract in Feb of this year.

The 2020-1 season was not up for negotiation and we are playing that now.

ABC is attempting to buyout the 2021-2, 2022-3 and the 2023-4 seasons. If they do the SEC gets their raise early. If not then 2023-4 will be the first with ABC/ESPN holding all of the rights.

The Big 12 and PAC GOR's expire at the end of the 2023-4 season. ABC/ESPN timed up the contracted period with this in mind. If they go all in for the Big 12 contract there will be no expansion out of the Big 12 and likely the Big 12 will expand.

If ESPN/ABC doesn't go after the Big 12 rights in full then they have already planned to raid the Big 12 of its top brands.

I don't know how to make it any plainer than that.

Either way the worst the SEC will make in 2023-4 is 68 million with 72 believed to be the final figure by more than 1 insider. I suppose we will hear all of this when the ABC negotiations for the remaining years of the CBS contract are announced. if that deal is already done then CBS probably doesn't want it announced until the end of this season. Also CBS may be negotiating games from other of ESPN's contracts so that they still have the 2:30 time slot just not with the SEC being a guaranteed game for them and if so that deal is between them and ESPN/ABC and not the SEC so it wouldn't impact our payouts.

Now if ESPN/ABC go after the Big 12's rights in total then expansion for the Big 12 could entail Nebraska (if they really wish to leave the Big 10), the PAC schools (if they are still stuck dead last in revenue) or from B.Y.U..

What I don't expect to see are any schools leaving the SEC or ACC.

Now if Nebraska left the Big 10 I think that could start a very interesting chain of events but that's another thread.

Well, it's easier to build a league around Oklahoma and Texas than without OU and UT.

If the Big 12 expands West, very possible I think, then the only wrinkle is finding a new home for West Virginia because their travel would be outrageous. It's already less than ideal, but there's just not a better option.

Makes sense to me that the Big 12 could take a handful of schools, shift WVU to another league, and everything's a little more balanced for travel. It's also more balanced for TV as West Virginia's fans are predominantly in the East.

The trick is finding a league suitable for WVU.

Just as an aside, I'm doubtful that CBS and ABC have completed their negotiations at this point. Under normal circumstances, I would think they would have, but the economy is up in the air and we still don't have all the answers with regard to how long the pandemic will be affecting everyday life. With that in mind, making those sorts of long term projections for payouts and scheduling might not be best. Might be better to wait another season before all that is settled.

The payouts and contract are done. The details simply haven't been released and possibly for some interesting reasons. The only thing that is in question, and it could easily have been held up by COVID 19, is ABC's attempt to buy out the remaining 3 years on the CBS contract following this season. But most industry insiders who have written or commented on this seem to think that CBS would have some compelling reasons to let the SEC go and ABC would have some solid reasons for acquiring the rights early. Disney as a whole simply has way too much inventory that CBS could profitably use whether in sports or not from which to offer access and programming for CBS to simply pass.

As to what happens with the Big 10 I go back to whether or not ESPN fully pursues their rights. If they do they'll be around and likely used to pick up other programs or markets that ESPN wants to control. If not they are likely to be parsed.

For the record the details on the contract were to be released at the SEC's spring meeting, but alas COVID stopped the meeting and the rescheduled meeting. So we wait.

The 23 million dollar increase in T1 rights per school is a given. So 68.5 million is really the lowest starting point. Thompson (who handles advertising for Disney) felt like when the details were announced the figure could be as high as 72 million per school. The latter figure begs suspicion. Is realignment baked into those numbers? If so there's your biggest reason nothing has been released. OU will be in negotiations for a new T3 deal at the end of this season. Let's wait and see what ESPN does. Right now ESPN holds all T3 rights to the Big 12 except for those of Oklahoma. If ESPN is going to make a total bid for Big 12 rights they must first acquire OU's T3. Oklahoma could sign a 1 year extension with FOX taking them through the 2022-3 season. If they make that move then OU likely has plans beyond 2023 for which they would need their T3 rights in the hands of someone other than FOX. They can't sign a new 7 year T3 deal with FOX and move to the SEC. They can't sign an new T3 deal with ESPN and move to the Big 10. But they could sign an new ESPN T3 rights deal and remain in a Big 12 totally controlled by ESPN. There's your tell.

Makes me wonder if the two schools you mentioned with already having deals in place are the same two Dan Patrick said we were trying to get them to join us for this season?