Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
Author Message
KnightLight Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 27,664
Joined: Sep 2003
Reputation: 700
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #1
Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
Just like UCF's infamous 4th and 1 play at Memphis 2 year's ago on UCF's own 29 yd line (play went for a 71 yd TD), a key early play in last week's UCF at GT game with UCF trailing early, 7-0 and facing a 4th and 1 on UCF's own 34 yd line.

UCF went for it again and succeeded and their win probability (even when trailing), went up 11.5%.



6 plays later on this same drive...UCF scored a TD to tie game at 7-7 and basically never looked back.
(This post was last modified: 09-23-2020 02:11 PM by KnightLight.)
09-23-2020 01:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


oliveandblue Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,779
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 251
I Root For: Tulane
Location:
Post: #2
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th and 1 like UCF
4th and 3 or less should be an automatic go. Nobody defends that well.
09-23-2020 01:51 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Lurkercat Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,199
Joined: Sep 2019
Reputation: 33
I Root For: UC
Location:
Post: #3
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th and 1 like UCF
I like calls that that. Even if it doesn't work and GT ends up scoring on the turnover, ucf has the firepower to quickly get back into the game. However, teams who like to run the clock like Navy for example can really get into trouble going down 14-0 (unless they're playing tulane)
09-23-2020 01:53 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
KnightLight Offline
Legend
*

Posts: 27,664
Joined: Sep 2003
Reputation: 700
I Root For: UCF
Location:
Post: #4
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
(09-23-2020 01:53 PM)Lurkercat Wrote:  I like calls that that. Even if it doesn't work and GT ends up scoring on the turnover, ucf has the firepower to quickly get back into the game. However, teams who like to run the clock like Navy for example can really get into trouble going down 14-0 (unless they're playing tulane)

Stats do take in account that you will not be successful all the time (UCF failed on a later 4th and 5 I think), but yes, overall...controlling the ball, not given an extra possession to your opponent will most likely end up in your advantage.

I chuckled 2 nights later watching LA Chargers HC Lynn PUNT the ball on 4th and 1 in OT to.....Mahomes & the Chiefs. EVERYONE watching knew what would happen next (i.e. Mahomes would lead the Chiefs on a game winning scoring drive).

Play to win....and while you won't always be successful...your players will LOVE playing with that edge.
09-23-2020 02:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


CoastalJuan Offline
Business Drunk
*

Posts: 6,900
Joined: Sep 2014
Reputation: 517
I Root For: ECU
Location: Right near da beeach
Post: #5
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
This remind me of a soccer stat around penalty kicks. Goalie's basically have to guess which way the ball is going to go, and jump that way as there is not enough time to try to react to a kick.

If the kicker has to choose between left, right, or middle on a penalty kick, they have the best chance of scoring if they kick it right down the middle. But no one wants to be the idiot that kicked it straight into the arms of a goalie that didn't move.
09-23-2020 03:24 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
HoustonRocks Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,229
Joined: Jul 2013
Reputation: 40
I Root For: HoustonCougars
Location:
Post: #6
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
09-23-2020 09:19 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
mikeinoki Offline
Gone to Seed
*

Posts: 4,291
Joined: Nov 2016
Reputation: 564
I Root For: JDB
Location: Greenview NC or SC?
Post: #7
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
I've often thought the same applies to not kicking field goals on 4th down, the reward of going for 7 or 8 points instead of 3. Even if you fall short you're well into your opponent's territory. If you go for it on 2 separate series and only convert once, you're still ahead.

For example, last year against SMU we were 1/1 on 4th down and 3/3 on FG attempts. SMU was 5/5 on 4th down and 1/1 on FGs. SMU won by 8.

Steve Logan used to say field goals are "minus 4".
(This post was last modified: 09-23-2020 11:21 PM by mikeinoki.)
09-23-2020 11:19 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


IamYourDad Offline
Banned

Posts: 660
Joined: Oct 2018
I Root For: UCF
Location: In your head
Post: #8
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
It's all about context at the end of the day. If you have a UCF offense playing a GTech defense you go for it. If you're Pitt playing Clemson in the ACC Championship you punt considering your defense got you there
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2020 01:05 AM by IamYourDad.)
09-24-2020 01:04 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
qwerty1 Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 329
Joined: Mar 2010
Reputation: 10
I Root For: _ _
Location: Reality
Post: #9
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
Law of Diminishing Returns applies. As more teams go for 4th-and-short, defenses will focus on stopping 4th-and-short attempts. Also, if 4th-and-1 attempts are converted at a 66% rate and on a long drive, three 4th-and-1 attempts are made, the likelihood of all attempts being successful falls to 28%.
09-24-2020 08:47 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Eichorst Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 501
Joined: Jan 2014
Reputation: 43
I Root For: Nebraska
Location:
Post: #10
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
(09-24-2020 08:47 AM)qwerty1 Wrote:  Law of Diminishing Returns applies. As more teams go for 4th-and-short, defenses will focus on stopping 4th-and-short attempts. Also, if 4th-and-1 attempts are converted at a 66% rate and on a long drive, three 4th-and-1 attempts are made, the likelihood of all attempts being successful falls to 28%.

I think this statistic was specific to 4th and 1 deep inside your own territory, no? Those *should* have a higher conversion rate than 4th and 1 in the opponent's territory, for a couple of reasons:
  • You have nearly the entire field to work with, so the defense can't crowd the line of scrimmage effectively without the risk of getting burned deep. The entire playbook is open from that position.
  • The defense doesn't have the same sense of urgency. Psychology does matter, especially in the college game, and outside of maybe an Alabama or Clemson type of disciplined team, I think most defenses will be ok giving up a 4th and 1 in that situation
I would also argue that the conversion rate would be *higher* if teams went on 4th down more often. I see a lot of offenses get nervous and seize up on 4th down. If teams more regularly practiced 4th down plays and went for it on 4th down, they might be more effective, and we wouldn't see diminishing returns.
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2020 11:33 AM by Eichorst.)
09-24-2020 11:32 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Advertisement


The Knight Time Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 11,286
Joined: Sep 2003
Reputation: 93
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #11
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
(09-24-2020 11:32 AM)Eichorst Wrote:  
(09-24-2020 08:47 AM)qwerty1 Wrote:  Law of Diminishing Returns applies. As more teams go for 4th-and-short, defenses will focus on stopping 4th-and-short attempts. Also, if 4th-and-1 attempts are converted at a 66% rate and on a long drive, three 4th-and-1 attempts are made, the likelihood of all attempts being successful falls to 28%.

I think this statistic was specific to 4th and 1 deep inside your own territory, no? Those *should* have a higher conversion rate than 4th and 1 in the opponent's territory, for a couple of reasons:
  • You have nearly the entire field to work with, so the defense can't crowd the line of scrimmage effectively without the risk of getting burned deep. The entire playbook is open from that position.
  • The defense doesn't have the same sense of urgency. Psychology does matter, especially in the college game, and outside of maybe an Alabama or Clemson type of disciplined team, I think most defenses will be ok giving up a 4th and 1 in that situation
I would also argue that the conversion rate would be *higher* if teams went on 4th down more often. I see a lot of offenses get nervous and seize up on 4th down. If teams more regularly practiced 4th down plays and went for it on 4th down, they might be more effective, and we wouldn't see diminishing returns.

This is correct.

4th and 1 from your side of the field is still a really good idea since most teams can manage 1 yard on many different plays, but there's also the big play opportunity available if the defense sells out on the run. UCF has actually thrown quite a few long TDs recently on 4th and short.
09-24-2020 11:41 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
TerryD Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 14,881
Joined: Feb 2006
Reputation: 898
I Root For: Notre Dame
Location: Grayson Highlands
Post: #12
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
This is sort of OT, but related.

That was a gutsy call by Brian Kelly going with a fake punt against Duke from inside his 20 yard line.

Great call......as long as it worked.

Likewise, going for it on 4th and 1 deep in your territory is a good idea, but you better make it.

Otherwise, it will be viewed as a dumb call that might cost you in a close game.
(This post was last modified: 09-25-2020 07:06 AM by TerryD.)
09-24-2020 12:47 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Unionman76 Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 7,948
Joined: Dec 2006
Reputation: 1343
I Root For: Memphis
Location: Olive Branch, MS
Post: #13
RE: Amazing stat on why more teams should go for it on 4th & 1, deep in own territory
(This post was last modified: 09-24-2020 02:06 PM by Unionman76.)
09-24-2020 02:06 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.