Not so fast, the entire B1G play plan depends upon all conference schools playing 9 weeks in a row. In the present environment that plan is doomed to failure. But of course, the CFP is likely to accommodate the B1G even if they play 5 games with no conference championship.

Yes, but what do the annual "You need that 13th data point to qualify for the playoffs" people do with a team that plays 9 games versus teams that play 11 or 12?

Just get amnesia and forget that they trumpet this "requirement" every season?

(09-16-2020 08:04 PM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 05:05 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 02:31 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  My guess would be that we would have a hard time getting an undefeated team in against a 2-loss P5 champ. And that 2-loss champ would have to be Minnesota or Mississippi State, not Ohio State.

The P5 gets a huge handicap in the voting, and the super hyped ones really have to play their way out to not make it.

I agree with this, for the most part.

2 Loss Ohio State / Michigan / Penn State / Wisconsin makes it over an undefeated AAC team

1 Loss Minnesota / Nebraska makes it over an undefeated AAC team

If you are talking 8 games, a 2 loss or 1 loss team may only have wins against Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland etc. All the SOS metrics would have to be thrown out the window.

Indiana, Rutger, Maryland still looks better than Tulsa, ECU, South Florida.

Navy was supposed to be a good AAC team and it got blown out by BYU. SMU and Tulane struggled against the Sun Belt.

If UCF goes undefeated and wins every single game by 50+, then maybe. It’s just not a realistic expectation.

(09-17-2020 08:03 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 08:04 PM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 05:05 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 02:31 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  My guess would be that we would have a hard time getting an undefeated team in against a 2-loss P5 champ. And that 2-loss champ would have to be Minnesota or Mississippi State, not Ohio State.

The P5 gets a huge handicap in the voting, and the super hyped ones really have to play their way out to not make it.

I agree with this, for the most part.

2 Loss Ohio State / Michigan / Penn State / Wisconsin makes it over an undefeated AAC team

1 Loss Minnesota / Nebraska makes it over an undefeated AAC team

If you are talking 8 games, a 2 loss or 1 loss team may only have wins against Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland etc. All the SOS metrics would have to be thrown out the window.

Indiana, Rutger, Maryland still looks better than Tulsa, ECU, South Florida.

Navy was supposed to be a good AAC team and it got blown out by BYU. SMU, Tulane, Memphis struggled against the Sun Belt.

If UCF goes undefeated and wins every single game by 50+, then maybe. It’s just not a realistic expectation.

Struggled? Memphis was up 20 pts late in the 3rd qtr, then coasted to the finish. Memphis virtually shutdown ASU in the 2nd half with all their players. Something ISU couldn't do with ASU down 13 players.

(09-17-2020 08:26 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 08:03 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 08:04 PM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 05:05 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 02:31 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  My guess would be that we would have a hard time getting an undefeated team in against a 2-loss P5 champ. And that 2-loss champ would have to be Minnesota or Mississippi State, not Ohio State.

The P5 gets a huge handicap in the voting, and the super hyped ones really have to play their way out to not make it.

I agree with this, for the most part.

2 Loss Ohio State / Michigan / Penn State / Wisconsin makes it over an undefeated AAC team

1 Loss Minnesota / Nebraska makes it over an undefeated AAC team

If you are talking 8 games, a 2 loss or 1 loss team may only have wins against Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland etc. All the SOS metrics would have to be thrown out the window.

Indiana, Rutger, Maryland still looks better than Tulsa, ECU, South Florida.

Navy was supposed to be a good AAC team and it got blown out by BYU. SMU, Tulane, Memphis struggled against the Sun Belt.

If UCF goes undefeated and wins every single game by 50+, then maybe. It’s just not a realistic expectation.

Struggled? Memphis was up 20 pts late in the 3rd qtr, then coasted to the finish. Memphis virtually shutdown ASU in the 2nd half with all their players. Something ISU couldn't do with ASU down 13 players.

Ok, I made the edit to remove Memphis. That’s a fair argument. I walked away unimpressed but I’m bais.

To the original op question, unfortunately, OSU can play & win 1-2 games in total & likely get into the CFP over an AAC undefeated champ. Shouldn't be that way, certainly not fair, but just wait.

(09-20-2020 08:11 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  To the original op question, unfortunately, OSU can play & win 1-2 games in total & likely get into the CFP over an AAC undefeated champ. Shouldn't be that way, certainly not fair, but just wait.

^^^^This. ESPiN controls the playoffs.

(09-17-2020 08:03 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 08:04 PM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 05:05 PM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 02:31 PM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  My guess would be that we would have a hard time getting an undefeated team in against a 2-loss P5 champ. And that 2-loss champ would have to be Minnesota or Mississippi State, not Ohio State.

The P5 gets a huge handicap in the voting, and the super hyped ones really have to play their way out to not make it.

I agree with this, for the most part.

2 Loss Ohio State / Michigan / Penn State / Wisconsin makes it over an undefeated AAC team

1 Loss Minnesota / Nebraska makes it over an undefeated AAC team

If you are talking 8 games, a 2 loss or 1 loss team may only have wins against Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland etc. All the SOS metrics would have to be thrown out the window.

Indiana, Rutger, Maryland still looks better than Tulsa, ECU, South Florida.

Navy was supposed to be a good AAC team and it got blown out by BYU. SMU and Tulane struggled against the Sun Belt.

If UCF goes undefeated and wins every single game by 50+, then maybe. It’s just not a realistic expectation.

We are talking about a one or two loss OSU whose major win may be only against the team opposite in the championship game.

However you can have a team like UCF who would potentially be undefeated playing many more games and have many more top 25 wins.

And this is in the event OSU actually has a full season. The B1G testing metrics are completely unrealistic. Essentially all positives and all contacts get a 21 day vacation. Whatever happened to Memphis would cost OSU 3 games.

Once the Big 10 decided to play, any small window for an AAC team to reach the College Football Playoff just slammed shut. There are lots of scenarios for making up a 4-team CFP, but I'm sure that none of them include 3 P5 teams and a G5 team.

(09-16-2020 12:48 PM)SMUleopold Wrote:  *EDIT* ....or if ANY Big 10 schools, like if Minnesota, went undefeated? *EDIT*

Let's imagine we have an undefeated AAC champ. UCF, Memphis, Cincy, SMU, whomever.

Imagine the 4th spot at the CFP table comes down to a Big 10 champ vs. the AAC? At what point will the Big 10 champ be picked over them for the CFP?

If OSU or PSU goes 9-0, including the Big 10 CG, do they get in over a 12-0 UCF team? If they go 8-1? If they have a couple of games cancelled and end up going, say, 6-0 do they get in over UCF?

We are going to learn alot about this question when they rank these teams on Oct. 24th after their first games, when our conference has possibly a couple of undefeated teams and OSU has 1 win against, say, Rutgers.

Ucf will only have 9 games, so they won't be 12-0, only 10-0 and yes OSU or PSU with one loss would get the bid. They likely also get in ove Memphis or Cincy

(09-17-2020 06:45 AM)TerryD Wrote:  Yes, but what do the annual "You need that 13th data point to qualify for the playoffs" people do with a team that plays 9 games versus teams that play 11 or 12?

Just get amnesia and forget that they trumpet this "requirement" every season?

Do you recall when OSU didn't even play in their CCG and made the playoff?

Like others have said, I don't think anyone in a position to be in the running, our conference included, is playing 12 games.

I think a 2-loss golden ticket team like Texas, OSU, Michigan, etc gets in over us, and (to be honest) I'd still be friggin shocked if an undefeated AAC team were to get in over a 2-loss Minnesota/Wisconsin.

Too many conferences are playing now. They'll just pull two teams from the SEC if there are too many 2-loss teams.

Outside of a miracle scenario where some big teams scrap the season or end up with .500 records, I just don't see us getting in before an 8-team setup.

OSU could play one game and they are still in. We are talking about one of too 2-3 leaders of the cartel here.