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The Multi-Year Trend Toward More Non-P5 Top 25 Teams May Continue to be Evident.
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jedclampett Offline
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Exclamation The Multi-Year Trend Toward More Non-P5 Top 25 Teams May Continue to be Evident.
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Although relatively few CFB fans seem to realize it, the number of P5 teams that have finished in the AP Top 25 each season increased steadily - - by an average of 150% per year - - since 2015, from one non-P5 in the 2015 final top 25 to seven non-P5 teams in 2019.

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Every year since 2014, the number of non-P5 teams in the Final AP Football Top 25 (not including ACC-affiliate Notre Dame) has exceeded the number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP Top 25.

The pattern first became evident in 2014, when there were no P5 teams in the pre-season top 25, but 3 P5 teams in the final AP top 25. However, few took notice of it until a few years later.


2015: 1 more non-P5 team in the final top 25 than initially predicted.

Number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP top 25: 1 (Boise)

Number of non-P5 teams in the final AP top 25: 2 (Navy & WKU)


2016: 2 more non-P5 teams in the final top 25 than initially predicted.

Number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP top 25: 1 (Houston)

Number of non-P5 teams in the final AP top 25: 3 (Boise, WMU, & Navy)

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Not only has this pattern continued each year since 2015, but the pre-season top 25 rankings have actually underestimated the number of non-P5 teams that finished in the top 25 by a larger and larger amount each year.

Rather than acknowledging the improved quality of the upper tier of non-P5 FB programs, the 62 sports writers who vote in the AP top 25 poll have voted to include an average of only 1.14 non-P5 teams in the seven pre-season AP polls conducted between 2014 and 2020.

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2017: 3 more non-P5 teams in the final top 25 than initially predicted.

Number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP top 25: 1 (USF)

Number of non-P5 teams in the final AP top 25: 4 (UCF, USF, Boise, & Memphis)


2018: 4 more non-P5 teams in the final top 25 than initially predicted.

Number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP top 25: 2 (UCF & Boise)

Number of non-P5 teams in the final AP top 25: 6 (UCF, Fresno State, Army, Utah State, Boise, & Cincinnati)


2019: 6 more non-P5 teams in the final top 25 than initially predicted.

Number of non-P5 teams in the pre-season AP top 25: 1 (UCF)

Number of non-P5 teams in the final AP top 25: 7 (Memphis, App. State, Navy, Cincy, Air Force, Boise & UCF)

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[/b]In the 2020 pre-season poll, which was sufficiently inclusive to list 5 Big Ten teams, only two non-P5 teams ( Cincy & UCF) [size=x-small] were ranked among the top 25.

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Q: Will the 2020 pre-season rankings, once again, underestimate (by a large margin) the number of non-P5 teams that will end up in the final AP top 25?

A: The rankings that are currently available from weeks 1-3 suggest that the answer may be yes.

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Week #2 AP rankings:

Six non-P5 teams were ranked in the week #2 AP top 25. In addition, Arkansas State (33 votes), SMU (32 votes), Boise (6), USF (6), UAB, Air Force, Marshall, and Houston received votes.

Three of the six ranked non-P5 teams - - Cincy (#13), UCF (#14), and Memphis (#16) - - probably would have still been ranked among the top 25, even if the five Big Ten teams in the pre-season top 25 had remained on the list in week #2.

The other non-P5 teams in the week #2 AP top 25 were BYU (#21), Army (#22), and App. State (#24). It is posible that they would have been #26th, #27th, and #29th in votes received if the 5 B1G teams in the preseason poll were in the week #2 top 25.

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Preliminary rankings after Saturday's games suggest that there may be either 6 or 7 non-P5 teams in the week #3 AP top 25 poll, including Louisiana, and Marshall, which defeated App. State.


Although many games remain to be played, the data currently available suggest that the observed trend toward an increasing number of non-P5 top 25 teams may continue to be evident this season.

Whether or not this upward trend will eventually exceed 7 teams - - or level off at an average of 6 or 7 non-P5 top 25 teams in future seasons - - will remain to be seen. But, regardless, fans of G5 and independent teams have reason to hope that the voters in the leading top 25 polls will soon have an "a-hah!" moment, when they will suddenly realize that they need to start paying just a wee bit more attention to the 60+ teams in the non-P5 conferences.

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Questions:

1) Why have the AP top 25 voters (62 sports writers) been so persistently and extremely inaccurate in their predictions as to how many top 25 quality non-P5 teams there will be in the nation?

2) Are they simply uninformed or oblivious, or is it possible that there is something else influencing their pre-season top 25 votes? If so, what?

2) How many more years will it take before the sports writers get enough of a clue to include 5 or 6, rather than 1 or 2 non-P5 teams on their pre-season top 25 lists?
(This post was last modified: 09-20-2020 04:36 AM by jedclampett.)
09-18-2020 10:51 AM
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WhoseHouse? Offline
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Post: #2
RE: 6 non-P5 schools on the Week #2 AP Top 25 list
(09-18-2020 10:51 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  .

[/b]As expected, based on a well-established pattern over the past 7-8 seasons, there was only one non-P5 team (#22 UCF) other than ACC-affiliated Notre Dame in the pre-season AP top 25, including 7 B1G or PAC teams.

Now, there are 6 non-P5 teams in the AP top 25. Three of these teams would probably be in the current top 25 even if there weren't a pandemic.

Arkansas State (33 votes), SMU (32 votes), Boise (6), USF (6), UAB, Air Force, Marshall, and Houston also received votes.

Even if the 7 B1G or PAC teams were in the current AP top 25, Cincy (#13), UCF (#14), and Memphis (#16) would probably be in the AP top 25, although their rankings would be #20, #21, and #23 in that case.

The other non-P5 teams in the current AP top 25 are BYU (#21), Army (#22), and App. State (#24). They would be ranked #28, #29, and #31 if the 7 B1G or PAC teams in the preseason poll were in the current top 25.

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Despite being handicapped by having only been 1 or 2 non-P5 teams including in the ten pre-season top 25 lists over the past decade, there has been a steady increase in the number of non-P5 teams in the Final AP top 25 from. Last season, there were 7 non-P5 final AP top 25 teams.

It appears likely that this historical trend will continue in 2020.

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Questions:

1) Why have the AP top 25 voters (62 sports writers) been so extremely and persistently inaccurate in their predictions as to how many top 25 quality non-P5 teams there will be in the nation?

2) Are they simply uninformed or oblivious, or is it possible that there is something else influencing their pre-season top 25 votes? If so, what?

2) How many more years will it take before the sports writers get enough of a clue to include 5 or 6, rather than 1 or 2 non-P5 teams on their pre-season top 25 lists?

Not true. Cincy was ranked as well in the preseason poll.
09-18-2020 10:55 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: 6 non-P5 schools on the Week #2 AP Top 25 list
(09-18-2020 10:55 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  Cincy...

Check.

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Questions:

1) Why have the AP top 25 voters (62 sports writers) been so extremely and persistently inaccurate in their predictions about to how many top 25 quality non-P5 teams there would be, each year?

2) Are they simply uninformed or oblivious, or is it possible that there is something else influencing their pre-season top 25 votes? If so, what?

3) How many more years do you think will it take before the sports writers begin to include 4, 5, or 6, rather than 1 or 2 non-P5 teams on their pre-season top 25 lists?

4) Is it possible that the number of non-P5 teams Final AP top 25 lists could continue to increase beyond 7 teams in the future?
(This post was last modified: 09-18-2020 01:09 PM by jedclampett.)
09-18-2020 11:09 AM
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Atlanta Offline
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RE: Multi-Year Trend Continues: More Non-P5 AP Top 25 Teams
Had nothing to do with being uninformed. Has to do with bias. These guys are P-5 snobs who refuse to consider reality.
09-18-2020 09:50 PM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: The Multi-Year Trend Continues: More Non-P5 Top 25 Teams
Week #3 Update

The CBS Sports top 25 rankings for week #3 includes 7 non-P5 teams:

#13 UCF

#14 Cincy

#17 Memphis

#18 Louisiana-Lafayette

#21 BYU

#22 Army

#25 Marshall

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...t-victory/
09-20-2020 02:12 AM
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goodknightfl Online
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Post: #6
RE: The Multi-Year Trend Toward More Non-P5 Top 25 Teams May Continue to be Evident.
(09-20-2020 02:12 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Week #3 Update

The CBS Sports top 25 rankings for week #3 includes 7 non-P5 teams:

#13 UCF

#14 Cincy

#17 Memphis

#18 Louisiana-Lafayette

#21 BYU

#22 Army

#25 Marshall

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...t-victory/

lets face it 4 or 5 of those would not be ranked if the Big and Pac were playing. Enjoy the reality of the moment, but don't over state it.
09-20-2020 07:28 AM
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Bear Catlett Online
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RE: The Multi-Year Trend Toward More Non-P5 Top 25 Teams May Continue to be Evident.
It's become a quota system.

The G5 gets 3, maybe 4 teams in the top 25. No more.

And along with that, no matter how good the best G5 team is, they're not getting higher than 17th.
09-20-2020 08:05 AM
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Foreverandever Offline
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RE: The Multi-Year Trend Toward More Non-P5 Top 25 Teams May Continue to be Evident.
(09-20-2020 07:28 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(09-20-2020 02:12 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Week #3 Update

The CBS Sports top 25 rankings for week #3 includes 7 non-P5 teams:

#13 UCF

#14 Cincy

#17 Memphis

#18 Louisiana-Lafayette

#21 BYU

#22 Army

#25 Marshall

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...t-victory/

lets face it 4 or 5 of those would not be ranked if the Big and Pac were playing. Enjoy the reality of the moment, but don't over state it.


Except for every year that's how it finishes. Lately those teams are mostly us. Yet we continue to see more P5's ranked in the beginning. End of year finishes with a bunch of p5 who held on in the rankings with 3-4 losses because they started ranked.

I have come around to the thinking there should be no top 25 polls until after the fourth week of play. It wouldn't change the top 5 usual suspects but it would get rid of some of these mid-tier teams that just get a vote because they didn't know who to put in spots 20-25 so they took a name they knew.
09-20-2020 10:12 AM
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jedclampett Offline
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RE: The Multi-Year Trend Toward More Non-P5 Top 25 Teams May Continue to be Evident.
(09-20-2020 07:28 AM)goodknightfl Wrote:  
(09-20-2020 02:12 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Week #3 Update

The CBS Sports top 25 rankings for week #3 includes 7 non-P5 teams:

#13 UCF

#14 Cincy

#17 Memphis

#18 Louisiana-Lafayette

#21 BYU

#22 Army

#25 Marshall

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...t-victory/

lets face it 4 or 5 of those would not be ranked if the Big and Pac were playing. Enjoy the reality of the moment, but don't over state it.

Since there were 5 Big Ten teams in the pre-season poll, and because it would be assumed, this early in the season, that there would still be 5 Big Ten or PAC-12 schools in the top 25, BYU would probably be somewhere around ~ #26 in total votes received, Army would be around ~#27, and Marshall would be around ~#30.

Based on the pre-season top 25, it can be estimated that the other four non-P5 teams, with the possible exception of Memphis (, since they haven't played yet) and Louisiana (~#23), would probably be in the top 25, even with the other P5 teams included. UCF would be around ~#18, and Cincy would probably be around ~#19.

If that's about right, then we might have a "true" top 25 that looks something like this:

#18/19 UCF
#19/20 Cincy
#23/24 Louisiana
#26/27 BYU
#27/28 Army
#30/31 Marshall

Memphis might be ranked anywhere between #20 and #30, since they don't have a W-L record yet.

If these estimates are close to being correct, that wouldn't be too bad for week #3. In fact, it would be one of the beter starts that the non P5 teams have had in the past few years.
09-20-2020 01:36 PM
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Unionman76 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: The Multi-Year Trend Toward More Non-P5 Top 25 Teams May Continue to be Evident.
memphis played arkansas state, wake up
09-20-2020 01:41 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: The Multi-Year Trend Toward More Non-P5 Top 25 Teams May Continue to be Evident.
You dont have to blindly guess, Jed. Coaches Poll includes Big10 this week:
#15 UCF (down 2 with inclusion of Big10)
#16 Cincinnati (down 2)
#20 Memphis (down 5 - four Big 10 adds and Miami jump)
SMU receiving votes

Other non-contract-bowl-conference teams:
#23 BYU (down 1)
#25 ULL (down 4)
09-20-2020 01:44 PM
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