(09-16-2020 07:56 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 12:12 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  I don’t think it is a given that a 9-0 Buckeye team with regular season wins over say, Purdue and Illinois, and a “CCG” win over, say, Wisconsin, would be a lock for playoff bid.

Ohio State is going to start the year no lower than #3 in the polls. If they go 9-0, they will surely make the playoffs no matter what their B1G schedule looks like. I mean, 100% likely.

To participate, the B1G champ should have to take on the highest ranked G5 team in a Christmas Day ESPN play-in game for the 4th CFB slot.

(09-16-2020 09:09 PM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 09:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 08:09 PM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 07:56 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 12:12 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  I don’t think it is a given that a 9-0 Buckeye team with regular season wins over say, Purdue and Illinois, and a “CCG” win over, say, Wisconsin, would be a lock for playoff bid.

Ohio State is going to start the year no lower than #3 in the polls. If they go 9-0, they will surely make the playoffs no matter what their B1G schedule looks like. I mean, 100% likely.

But where would the body of work be? All the SOS metrics that pundits as well as you yourself talk about would be thrown out the window in that case. The B1G better schedule some good matchups for their top teams to make the case. Elevating OSU just because of their name goes against everything, usually they have a legit body of work to highlight.

With little P5 OOC crossover, SOS metrics and computers will be of little use. This year's CFP is going to be determined by reputation and eyeballs only. There's just no other way to do it.

One would hope a little common sense would prevail on the committee....... but I guess that is wishful thinking.

Not sure that would help your cause. "Common sense" would suggest that an Ohio State team that goes 9-0 this year while loaded with players that went to the playoffs last year is probably one of the four best teams.

There's really not much the committee can do. The B1G and SEC are playing no OOC games. The ACC is playing very few and almost none against quality opposition. Its almost like each P4 is in its own bubble. The B12 has suffered three losses to Sun Belt teams so that is something for the CFP to look at.

(09-16-2020 07:56 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 12:12 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  I don’t think it is a given that a 9-0 Buckeye team with regular season wins over say, Purdue and Illinois, and a “CCG” win over, say, Wisconsin, would be a lock for playoff bid.

Ohio State is going to start the year no lower than #3 in the polls. If they go 9-0, they will surely make the playoffs no matter what their B1G schedule looks like. I mean, 100% likely.

The question becomes - what happens if it's a 5-0 Ohio State when there's a 10-1 Alabama, 9-2 Florida, 11-0 Clemson and 11-0 Oklahoma?

USFFan

Since the B1G announced it was coming back today, anyone want to make a thread with all the posts predicting that the B1G would not reverse course? Or what about college football not happening? What about sports in general not being played again until 2021 at the earliest?

Would be a mighty entertaining thread.

At least all the threads about the Big Ten splitting or Big Ten teams joining other conferences will end.

(09-17-2020 04:54 AM)schmolik Wrote:  At least all the threads about the Big Ten splitting or Big Ten teams joining other conferences will end.

Maybe.
Conferences in their original form were bound together with a common mindset. New members in expanded conferences are bound to those new conferences by money.
When folks start to realize that commonality is more important that the promise of riches, little cracks grow.

(09-16-2020 09:12 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 09:09 PM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 09:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 08:09 PM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 07:56 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Ohio State is going to start the year no lower than #3 in the polls. If they go 9-0, they will surely make the playoffs no matter what their B1G schedule looks like. I mean, 100% likely.

But where would the body of work be? All the SOS metrics that pundits as well as you yourself talk about would be thrown out the window in that case. The B1G better schedule some good matchups for their top teams to make the case. Elevating OSU just because of their name goes against everything, usually they have a legit body of work to highlight.

With little P5 OOC crossover, SOS metrics and computers will be of little use. This year's CFP is going to be determined by reputation and eyeballs only. There's just no other way to do it.

One would hope a little common sense would prevail on the committee....... but I guess that is wishful thinking.

Not sure that would help your cause. "Common sense" would suggest that an Ohio State team that goes 9-0 this year while loaded with players that went to the playoffs last year is probably one of the four best teams.

There's really not much the committee can do. The B1G and SEC are playing no OOC games. The ACC is playing very few and almost none against quality opposition. Its almost like each P4 is in its own bubble. The B12 has suffered three losses to Sun Belt teams so that is something for the CFP to look at.

Why play more than a one game season and go straight to the CFP if this is the line of thinking for OSU?

On a more serious note, the committee is not supposed to look at last year. If there are a few covid cancelations in the B1G, OSU may be a 5-0 or 6-0 undefeated team playing one ranked team the entire season.

Sorry, if the committee puts that in the playoffs over a 1 loss SEC team that played a full season or even an undefeated AAC team with 3 ranked victories, then is an utter joke.

I know that this is a weird, Covid driven season, but:

Where are all the people who claimed every season that teams need that "13th data point" in order to qualify for the playoffs and that those with a lack of such a "13th data point" should be left out?

Here, we have Big Ten schools playing 9 games at most with others playing 11 or 12.

That should be held against them, should it not, as having a lack of at least that "11th data point" this season?

(09-17-2020 05:07 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 04:54 AM)schmolik Wrote:  At least all the threads about the Big Ten splitting or Big Ten teams joining other conferences will end.

Maybe.
Conferences in their original form were bound together with a common mindset. New members in expanded conferences are bound to those new conferences by money.
When folks start to realize that commonality is more important that the promise of riches, little cracks grow.

Yup.

If the idea was to expand with schools “like us,” it wasn’t done that way. Or, “nearly like” isn’t close enough.

Nebraska and the Big Ten is a good case to examine. The courtship took about a century for the two to finally merge. There were moments along the way when the connection could have happened: at the start, once Chicago left, before the Big XII formed...but it took media contract dispute to drive out schools, and that shouldn’t be forgotten when it comes to the UNL-B1G story. Money, not institutional identity.

And I like UNL in the B1G, but I don’t think they really fit culturally. Not the same way Colorado probably does with the PAC.

You know, if the Big Ten took Missouri or Pitt instead, I bet the season stays dead.

(09-17-2020 06:31 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I know that this is a weird, Covid driven season, but:

Where are all the people who claimed every season that teams need that "13th data point" in order to qualify for the playoffs and that those with a lack of such a "13th data point" should be left out?

Here, we have Big Ten schools playing 9 games at most with others playing 11 or 12.

That should be held against them, should it not, as having a lack of at least that "11th data point" this season?

With the uber restrictive protocols that the B1G is putting in place including a ridiculous 21 day quarantine for positives, its likely that each team may get at most 5 to six games. This is crazy if they can be considered for the CFP. This would be a mockery of the playoffs.

(09-16-2020 09:00 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Not going to happen when players catch the virus. It is just wishful thinking to all these confernces that wants to play. Way too many players opted out of playing and others caught the virus. This season is a complete joke with games being lopsided.

David, which virus do you foresee being invited to the Pandemic Division next?

(09-16-2020 09:19 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 07:56 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 12:12 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  I don’t think it is a given that a 9-0 Buckeye team with regular season wins over say, Purdue and Illinois, and a “CCG” win over, say, Wisconsin, would be a lock for playoff bid.

Ohio State is going to start the year no lower than #3 in the polls. If they go 9-0, they will surely make the playoffs no matter what their B1G schedule looks like. I mean, 100% likely.

The question becomes - what happens if it's a 5-0 Ohio State when there's a 10-1 Alabama, 9-2 Florida, 11-0 Clemson and 11-0 Oklahoma?

USFFan

No question, given that the B1G schedule has no margin for postponements, only cancellations, that is the big issue. IMO, five games would probably not be enough. What would be enough is somewhere between 5 and 9, LOL.

(09-17-2020 06:31 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I know that this is a weird, Covid driven season, but:

Where are all the people who claimed every season that teams need that "13th data point" in order to qualify for the playoffs and that those with a lack of such a "13th data point" should be left out?

Here, we have Big Ten schools playing 9 games at most with others playing 11 or 12.

That should be held against them, should it not, as having a lack of at least that "11th data point" this season?

I'm not sure anyone has ever said that without a 13th data point you should be left out, just that without it you are at a disadvantage and rightly so, just because all else equal 13 games is better than 12.

My take is that if a B1G team goes 9-0 and SEC/ACC/B12 teams go 11-0 or 12-0, than the latter will have a seeding advantage in the eyes of the CFP and rightly so.

But that isn't likely to be prohibitive, just because by the nature of the schedules, their can only be 3 such teams, the ACC, SEC, and B12 champs. Also, typically, Notre Dame is out there floating as an extra possibility to take a spot, but not this year because they are folded into the ACC. So there will be a fourth slot open, and IMO a 9-0 B1G team would likely be more deserving than a 10-1 ACC, SEC or B12 team.

On the other hand, if the B1G champ is 8-1, they would very likely get left out in favor of a strong 10-1 runner-up from another conference. The B1G is in a very precarious situation, to make the playoffs it likely must have someone run the table, and that will not be easy, playing 9 straight weeks against other P5 with no rest, etc.

So the reason playing 9 games isn't being regarded as prohibitive for the CFP isn't because people have changed their minds about the import of data points, it's the nature of this season - there are fewer P5 champs contending for it, and Notre Dame, which usually is effectively a "sixth possible P5 champ" is also not out their as a separate contender either.

(09-17-2020 05:40 AM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 09:12 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 09:09 PM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 09:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 08:09 PM)otown Wrote:  But where would the body of work be? All the SOS metrics that pundits as well as you yourself talk about would be thrown out the window in that case. The B1G better schedule some good matchups for their top teams to make the case. Elevating OSU just because of their name goes against everything, usually they have a legit body of work to highlight.

With little P5 OOC crossover, SOS metrics and computers will be of little use. This year's CFP is going to be determined by reputation and eyeballs only. There's just no other way to do it.

One would hope a little common sense would prevail on the committee....... but I guess that is wishful thinking.

Not sure that would help your cause. "Common sense" would suggest that an Ohio State team that goes 9-0 this year while loaded with players that went to the playoffs last year is probably one of the four best teams.

There's really not much the committee can do. The B1G and SEC are playing no OOC games. The ACC is playing very few and almost none against quality opposition. Its almost like each P4 is in its own bubble. The B12 has suffered three losses to Sun Belt teams so that is something for the CFP to look at.

Why play more than a one game season and go straight to the CFP if this is the line of thinking for OSU?

On a more serious note, the committee is not supposed to look at last year. If there are a few covid cancelations in the B1G, OSU may be a 5-0 or 6-0 undefeated team playing one ranked team the entire season.

Sorry, if the committee puts that in the playoffs over a 1 loss SEC team that played a full season or even an undefeated AAC team with 3 ranked victories, then is an utter joke.

We were talking about a 9-0 B1G team. I agree, if because of covid an Ohio State only plays 6 games, then that makes it much less likely they make the playoffs.

As for "not considering last year", sure, I agree in principle that last year shouldn't matter. But it always does. E.g., why was unbeaten 2018 UCF ranked higher going in to the NY6 bowls than 2017 UCF? Because 2017 UCF went unbeaten and thus their 2018 season looked less fluky. The credibility they built in 2017 washed over in to 2018. It's just that way.

That said, the B1G *is* in fact in a precarious position. Because of those fewer games, the B1G champ probably has to go unbeaten to make the playoffs, whereas other P5 champs can lose a game. They really are boxed in tightly. I mean, I think you can make a case that the B1G presidents have really set the situation up for failure. They have created a situation with so many restrictions that it is very likely games will be canceled, which is what they secretly still want, but now they can say "well we tried!" to their critics.

In related news, Indiana University officials announced Thursday that the Hoosier mascot this football season will be ...

... Covid Dazzle, a middle-age, hirsute chinless man who stands on the sidelines shaking red and white IU pompoms and wearing merely a facial shield and a loin cloth that reads "The Big Ten is Back."

Read into that last element what you will, gents.

(09-17-2020 08:16 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 05:40 AM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 09:12 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 09:09 PM)otown Wrote:  

(09-16-2020 09:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  With little P5 OOC crossover, SOS metrics and computers will be of little use. This year's CFP is going to be determined by reputation and eyeballs only. There's just no other way to do it.

One would hope a little common sense would prevail on the committee....... but I guess that is wishful thinking.

Not sure that would help your cause. "Common sense" would suggest that an Ohio State team that goes 9-0 this year while loaded with players that went to the playoffs last year is probably one of the four best teams.

There's really not much the committee can do. The B1G and SEC are playing no OOC games. The ACC is playing very few and almost none against quality opposition. Its almost like each P4 is in its own bubble. The B12 has suffered three losses to Sun Belt teams so that is something for the CFP to look at.

Why play more than a one game season and go straight to the CFP if this is the line of thinking for OSU?

On a more serious note, the committee is not supposed to look at last year. If there are a few covid cancelations in the B1G, OSU may be a 5-0 or 6-0 undefeated team playing one ranked team the entire season.

Sorry, if the committee puts that in the playoffs over a 1 loss SEC team that played a full season or even an undefeated AAC team with 3 ranked victories, then is an utter joke.

We were talking about a 9-0 B1G team. I agree, if because of covid an Ohio State only plays 6 games, then that makes it much less likely they make the playoffs.

As for "not considering last year", sure, I agree in principle that last year shouldn't matter. But it always does. E.g., why was unbeaten 2018 UCF ranked higher going in to the NY6 bowls than 2017 UCF? Because 2017 UCF went unbeaten and thus their 2018 season looked less fluky. The credibility they built in 2017 washed over in to 2018. It's just that way.

That said, the B1G *is* in fact in a precarious position. Because of those fewer games, the B1G champ probably has to go unbeaten to make the playoffs, whereas other P5 champs can lose a game. They really are boxed in tightly. I mean, I think you can make a case that the B1G presidents have really set the situation up for failure. They have created a situation with so many restrictions that it is very likely games will be canceled, which is what they secretly still want, but now they can say "well we tried!" to their critics.

Have you read the health protocol being put in place by the B1G? It is mind blowing. 21 day quarantines for positives? Are they for real? One small outbreak essentially cancels the season for a team. It is like the B1G is going through the motions to say they tried everything possible to have a season to save face in the future when this comes back to haunt them........ but this unrealistic protocol will result in 3+ games being cancelled. Just look at what happened to TCU and Memphis.......21 day quarantines are 3 games off the back.

(09-17-2020 07:27 AM)otown Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 06:31 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I know that this is a weird, Covid driven season, but:

Where are all the people who claimed every season that teams need that "13th data point" in order to qualify for the playoffs and that those with a lack of such a "13th data point" should be left out?

Here, we have Big Ten schools playing 9 games at most with others playing 11 or 12.

That should be held against them, should it not, as having a lack of at least that "11th data point" this season?

With the uber restrictive protocols that the B1G is putting in place including a ridiculous 21 day quarantine for positives, its likely that each team may get at most 5 to six games. This is crazy if they can be considered for the CFP. This would be a mockery of the playoffs.

Nobody does 21 day quarantines.

(09-17-2020 06:31 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I know that this is a weird, Covid driven season, but:

Where are all the people who claimed every season that teams need that "13th data point" in order to qualify for the playoffs and that those with a lack of such a "13th data point" should be left out?

Here, we have Big Ten schools playing 9 games at most with others playing 11 or 12.

That should be held against them, should it not, as having a lack of at least that "11th data point" this season?

I don't think anybody is saying this will not be held against them...are they? Of course less games played should absolutely be part of a formula that impacts a team negatively.

(09-17-2020 09:50 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 07:27 AM)otown Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 06:31 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I know that this is a weird, Covid driven season, but:

Where are all the people who claimed every season that teams need that "13th data point" in order to qualify for the playoffs and that those with a lack of such a "13th data point" should be left out?

Here, we have Big Ten schools playing 9 games at most with others playing 11 or 12.

That should be held against them, should it not, as having a lack of at least that "11th data point" this season?

With the uber restrictive protocols that the B1G is putting in place including a ridiculous 21 day quarantine for positives, its likely that each team may get at most 5 to six games. This is crazy if they can be considered for the CFP. This would be a mockery of the playoffs.

Nobody does 21 day quarantines.

My mistake. Not necessarily quarantine, but the earliest they can return is 21 days per B1G health protocol. And that is the earliest. https://bigten.org/news/2020/9/16/the-bi...-2020.aspx

(09-17-2020 11:25 AM)otown Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 09:50 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 07:27 AM)otown Wrote:  

(09-17-2020 06:31 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I know that this is a weird, Covid driven season, but:

Where are all the people who claimed every season that teams need that "13th data point" in order to qualify for the playoffs and that those with a lack of such a "13th data point" should be left out?

Here, we have Big Ten schools playing 9 games at most with others playing 11 or 12.

That should be held against them, should it not, as having a lack of at least that "11th data point" this season?

With the uber restrictive protocols that the B1G is putting in place including a ridiculous 21 day quarantine for positives, its likely that each team may get at most 5 to six games. This is crazy if they can be considered for the CFP. This would be a mockery of the playoffs.

Nobody does 21 day quarantines.

My mistake. Not necessarily quarantine, but the earliest they can return is 21 days per B1G health protocol. And that is the earliest. https://bigten.org/news/2020/9/16/the-bi...-2020.aspx

Still more than anyone I have heard of. Per CDC, its 10 days after symptoms. They have dropped that from 14.