Not to be a Debbie downer but is it a possibility that the economic fallout of losing the 2020 football season mean FCS for all or part of the MAC?

It’s not a scenario I want to think about but I think it might be something we have to prepare for.

(08-20-2020 02:40 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Not to be a Debbie downer but is it a possibility that the economic fallout of losing the 2020 football season mean FCS for all or part of the MAC?

It’s not a scenario I want to think about but I think it might be something we have to prepare for.

Please tell me what I should do to prepare for this.

No doubt it has crossed my mind

Conferences don't tend to move up/down en masse. At worst, a few programs may contemplate it. But no president really wants to be "that guy" (or gal) to go down in the annals of their university for dropping a level.

I suppose Idaho is a recent example of dropping down. But they aren't that far removed from FCS to begin with (mid 90s?), and their membership in the Sun Belt made no geographic sense.

Not likely ... a budgetary impact like this year that was expected to continue for three or four years might, but schools have gone through one-off budget hits before without it forcing substantial changes on that scale.

Where it might happen would be a program that is close to the brink already, and despite the doomsayers, that did not apply to the large majority of the MAC before the epidemic hit.

the economics are more of a long term decline in state and federal support for public universities over the past generation. this (which is well documented) has meant a double edge of programmatic (not just athletic) and academic cuts at most schools coupled with large increases in tuition. most, lower profile public universities are struggling now due to the high cost of college education limiting potential students. one response has been for schools to specialize in areas that generate corporate and foundation grants or research monies which bring in some funds but also hurt academic programs that don't fit that fund generating profile. for example, Toledo had a long tradition of solid departments in engineering, english, theatre and business. the engineering and business programs are still strong (they can generate supplemental funding) but the english and theatre departments aren't nearly what they used to be. COVID certainly will jab the knife in deeper, but if you care about MAC sports and universities promote better funding of public education and lower tuition costs.

(08-20-2020 09:00 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  Not likely ... a budgetary impact like this year that was expected to continue for three or four years might, but schools have gone through one-off budget hits before without it forcing substantial changes on that scale.

Where it might happen would be a program that is close to the brink already, and despite the doomsayers, that did not apply to the large majority of the MAC before the epidemic hit.

I agree with your post.

My FEAR is that it could be a 2-year problem. The 'current' CFB season and maybe 2021 will be less than 4 OOC games.

As we know, if a MAC OOC game vs. a well-healed team gets canceled, that is typical 1M, and sometimes much more.

Example: If the B1G reduces their 2021 OOC schedule (because they played in the spring) then some MAC schools will probably lose a big 2021 pay day.

If a cluster of MAC schools give up on G5 football then the (remaining) conference will have to make some decisions. I don't believe it will be a one-by-one attrition.

(08-21-2020 04:54 PM)emu steve Wrote:  My FEAR is that it could be a 2-year problem. The 'current' CFB season and maybe 2021 will be less than 4 OOC games.

I am convinced that with $1/test, "results in minutes" saliva tests, even if less accurate, can make for a workable protocol that even Go5 schools can afford. And with the number of vaccines with promising stage 2 results advancing to stage 3 testing, it seems likely we'll have vaccines available by summer 2021 if not earlier.

So I am not particularly concerned about it being a big two year hit.

(08-22-2020 11:00 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-21-2020 04:54 PM)emu steve Wrote:  My FEAR is that it could be a 2-year problem. The 'current' CFB season and maybe 2021 will be less than 4 OOC games.

I am convinced that with $1/test, "results in minutes" saliva tests, even if less accurate, can make for a workable protocol that even Go5 schools can afford. And with the number of vaccines with promising stage 2 results advancing to stage 3 testing, it seems likely we'll have vaccines available by summer 2021 if not earlier.

So I am not particularly concerned about it being a big two year hit.

It will be longer than a 2 year hit if something like the Jeff Brohm proposal gets utilized in the spring. If 4 conferences have fall football, and 6 do spring, how do you get everyone back out next fall? Recruiting, practicing, injury rehab, revenue are all to be dealt with if that happens.

The best thing anyone can hope for to not F up next fall season is to nix this fall, play some scrimmages in the spring then return full go next fall. The draft and decision for players to opt out is the next hurdle for P5... Also logistics of grading high school athletes who don't play a year will be wild. Lots of good players will fall thru the cracks, and lots of kids will be wrongly evaluated and be busts Imo.

I don't see how moving to FCS would solve anything.

I don't think anything changes in the short term. Longer term, who knows?

(08-20-2020 06:33 PM)Motown Bronco Wrote:  Conferences don't tend to move up/down en masse.

True. I tend to think the MAC might be different here, though. We are all quite similar in terms of our missions and the financial pressures we face. I could see members wanting to stick together, no matter what.

I can't imagine Bowling Green leaving the MAC.

(08-23-2020 01:41 PM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  I don't see how moving to FCS would solve anything.

Precisely right.

There is a tendency over on the Realignment board by one or more parties to take the difference in average school subsidy between Go5 schools and FCS schools as equal to the savings a school can achieve if they "drop down" to FCS ... but it's likely that has got cause and effect turned around, with the lower profile of FCS football leading to schools not being willing to spend as much subsidizing sports at those schools.

Dropping football entirely can generally save a noticeable amount of money, but in a normal year where a Go5 school will have from one to three buy games, plus the ESPN MACtion money, quite a lot of the hard cash outlays saved in dropping down to FCS would be matched by a drop in revenues.

(08-23-2020 12:46 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 11:00 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-21-2020 04:54 PM)emu steve Wrote:  My FEAR is that it could be a 2-year problem. The 'current' CFB season and maybe 2021 will be less than 4 OOC games.

I am convinced that with $1/test, "results in minutes" saliva tests, even if less accurate, can make for a workable protocol that even Go5 schools can afford. And with the number of vaccines with promising stage 2 results advancing to stage 3 testing, it seems likely we'll have vaccines available by summer 2021 if not earlier.

So I am not particularly concerned about it being a big two year hit.

It will be longer than a 2 year hit if something like the Jeff Brohm proposal gets utilized in the spring. If 4 conferences have fall football, and 6 do spring, how do you get everyone back out next fall? Recruiting, practicing, injury rehab, revenue are all to be dealt with if that happens.

The best thing anyone can hope for to not F up next fall season is to nix this fall, play some scrimmages in the spring then return full go next fall. The draft and decision for players to opt out is the next hurdle for P5... Also logistics of grading high school athletes who don't play a year will be wild. Lots of good players will fall thru the cracks, and lots of kids will be wrongly evaluated and be busts Imo.

Seen the idea of having 10 games next year. Think it was SEC greed, but would have the effect of lessening the impact of playing spring and then fall. They don't give a crap about those conferences/teams. It's SEC greed and carrying a big stick. was the context.

(08-23-2020 12:46 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(08-22-2020 11:00 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-21-2020 04:54 PM)emu steve Wrote:  My FEAR is that it could be a 2-year problem. The 'current' CFB season and maybe 2021 will be less than 4 OOC games.

I am convinced that with $1/test, "results in minutes" saliva tests, even if less accurate, can make for a workable protocol that even Go5 schools can afford. And with the number of vaccines with promising stage 2 results advancing to stage 3 testing, it seems likely we'll have vaccines available by summer 2021 if not earlier.

So I am not particularly concerned about it being a big two year hit.

It will be longer than a 2 year hit if something like the Jeff Brohm proposal gets utilized in the spring. ...

What is the Jeff Brohm proposal? My model for a spring season would be six games, and a seventh for the two CCG schools. I believe that a spring schedule along those lines can be worked out that would allow for playing in the fall.

For the Big Ten, if they go for a 10 game spring season, that's on them how they work out how to be ready to play again in the Fall.

If no 2020 & no 2021 season, definitely

If it gets that bad tho, I think it's more likely they just drop down to D2. A team or 2 like Toledo might still try to make it work

(08-26-2020 10:35 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  If no 2020 & no 2021 season, definitely

If it gets that bad tho, I think it's more likely they just drop down to D2. A team or 2 like Toledo might still try to make it work

In terms of the "abandon ship" scenarios, I don't see either Kent State or Akron abandoning D1 basketball before they drop FB entirely. Similarly I don't see Akron abandoning D1 soccer or Kent State abandoning D1 baseball.

And if it comes time for a "save our program!" crisis fundraising drive at Miami, all of those annoying Chicagoland preppies are likely to turn out to be useful after all. Of the 12, they are among the least likely to have to drop down.

Similarly, Ohio might hope that the Southeast Ohio "herb" growers are able to reach into their pockets to rescue their local college program, especially if there are some local county sheriffs with school spirit that can make it worth their while.{+}
_________________________

{+ Yes, this is good old fashioned 'Battle of the Bricks' slanging in honor of my late brother & Bobcat alum, who despite the stereotype never seemed to have touched the herb while at school there.}

I don't think the MAC will "move down". The more likely scenario is the autonomous conferences will do something that further separates them from the rest. Of course the network TV people will be there leading the charge to squash us folks in the steerage quarters like a bug and leave us to sink.

(08-26-2020 10:35 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  If no 2020 & no 2021 season, definitely

If it gets that bad tho, I think it's more likely they just drop down to D2. A team or 2 like Toledo might still try to make it work

I agree. Although lots of Rockets fans are bucknut and scUM fans, there is enough of a donor base to stay Indy and fill schedules with current MAC, Indy and B1G squads.

(08-31-2020 09:16 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(08-26-2020 10:35 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  If no 2020 & no 2021 season, definitely

If it gets that bad tho, I think it's more likely they just drop down to D2. A team or 2 like Toledo might still try to make it work

I agree. Although lots of Rockets fans are bucknut and scUM fans, there is enough of a donor base to stay Indy and fill schedules with current MAC, Indy and B1G squads.

If the MAC did “drop down” to FCS and some current members remained as FBS independents, who could and would do so?

From an outsiders perspective, I’d think Toledo, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Buffalo and maybe Northern Illinois and Ohio. Maybe I’m way off but it would be interesting. Having 5 other somewhat regional independents to the MAC today would make scheduling and travel fairly easy.

(09-01-2020 07:34 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(08-31-2020 09:16 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(08-26-2020 10:35 AM)Bronco14 Wrote:  If no 2020 & no 2021 season, definitely

If it gets that bad tho, I think it's more likely they just drop down to D2. A team or 2 like Toledo might still try to make it work

I agree. Although lots of Rockets fans are bucknut and scUM fans, there is enough of a donor base to stay Indy and fill schedules with current MAC, Indy and B1G squads.

If the MAC did “drop down” to FCS and some current members remained as FBS independents, who could and would do so?

From an outsiders perspective, I’d think Toledo, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Buffalo and maybe Northern Illinois and Ohio. Maybe I’m way off but it would be interesting. Having 5 other somewhat regional independents to the MAC today would make scheduling and travel fairly easy.

CMU has a very pro athletics president in Davies, on top of putting the finishing touches on a 35 million endzone facility and last season installing a large video screen. I do not see CMU dropping down to FCS