(03-08-2021 03:10 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote: I wasn't unduly trying to be blunt or contrary.
OK, I didn't name two schools and be definitive as a personal preference. Texas would be one of them if it will be smooth sailing. That's no guarantee.
The problem is predicting the situation approximately three years from now. For the SEC and the B10, there are not vast, enticing, and lucrative options to pursue. Major conferences will not assemble and swap/trade in an amiable, equitable fashion. Perhaps that would be an improved approach, though.
GoRs, TV contracts, state politics, etc. constrain so much. I'd rather see major conferences get together not to swap schools, but establish and standardize a maximum number of schools for each conference. End the GoRs and have reasonable exit fees. It would enhance all major conference stability for the long-term.
Obviously, looking west, Texas and Oklahoma
appear as the strongest, speculative
prospects right now. But new developments two years from now could alter that.
It's an interesting set of problems:
1. Texas and Oklahoma are valuable enough for the Big 10 and SEC to add and they have by far the greatest disparity between top schools in a conference and the rest of that conference in both earnings and the % of the total value of the conference they represent.
2. The ACC will be getting doubled up in media revenue by the SEC and Big 10 and are locked in until after Boomers are statistically gone before they can renew and Boomers and X'ers represent the bulk of college sports viewing now so prospects for a better contract in 2037 are statistically bleak for the ACC.
3. The PAC quite possibly could be worth less than they are currently being paid and certainly not a great deal more like they need. A PAC implosion could reshape all of realignment if Texas and Oklahoma find a way to keep their fiefdom by adding PAC schools. The old core PAC might even consider, when all else fails, to become a West Division of the Big 10, which might result in the SEC and ACC taking a whole new look at reformation.
So yes, there are many variables in play outside of these simple scenarios:
1. Red Ink from COVID losses places pressure on what appear to be secure schools to make quick and radical changes in order to save their athletic departments. Or they drop down in extreme cases.
2. NIL rulings place even more economic pressure on the marginal programs of the P5 forcing some out and place enough forward looking pressure that some bell cows in lesser conferences jump for greener pastures, and I'm talking surprisingly big bell cows from P5's (ACC, PAC, Big 12) and they collect as much as they can get for the future and those left behind form a new, but somewhat lesser paid P4 conference.
3. Pay for Play hits in much the same way as described about the NIL rulings.
4. People turned off by political agendas at their escape time venues don't return, quit donating, even turn off the tube sports. They've had a year of lockdown to find other interests many of which are more hands on enjoyable. The dumb*** AD's that jumped on board the protest bandwagon without considering their audience are going to be in for a very rude awakening when the numbers next year, even without attendance restrictions, don't return to anywhere near the percentages of capacity they enjoyed pre-COVID, and fear of COVID will only be a very small percentage of those absentees.
This too will bring radical pressure for change, just not the changes these puddinheads were thinking about.
5. How long can cable networks survive? Nobody is clear on this one.
I'd say the surest bet is larger conferences for the sake of scheduling, holding extra rounds of internal playoffs (where monetary gains have been solid) and for leverage when negotiating contracts, and because they may lose a member or two to the above factors.
People are wary and handwringing the effects we already see. But what we are feeling is that quick wind of change that hits before the real storm strikes and that storm is coming and is going to be much worse than what is currently feared.