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tribeinexile Offline
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College Athletics
I get so confused with these threads these days I thought I would try to start one focused exclusively on the financial sustainability of college athletics.

The trigger for today is George Washington's announcement that they are going from 27 to 20 sports (after 20-21 academic year). They are dropping the non-NCAA sports of men's rowing, sailing, men's and women's squash, and the NCAA sports of men's indoor track, men's tennis and women's water polo.

We are watching the evolving cancellation of the 2020 NCAA football season. My own personal prediction is that once the Power 5 has cancelled all the body bag games with the G5 and FCS, most colleges will not find it feasible to field football this fall (university budget shortfalls + no fans in the stands + additional costs for testing athletes). I also believe any games between FCS schools and P5 schools will NOT involve payments to the FCS schools. In my model, the P5 may have a season but no one else will (this fall).
07-31-2020 11:18 AM
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Florida tribe fan Offline
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RE: College Athletics
(07-31-2020 11:18 AM)tribeinexile Wrote:  I get so confused with these threads these days I thought I would try to start one focused exclusively on the financial sustainability of college athletics.

The trigger for today is George Washington's announcement that they are going from 27 to 20 sports (after 20-21 academic year). They are dropping the non-NCAA sports of men's rowing, sailing, men's and women's squash, and the NCAA sports of men's indoor track, men's tennis and women's water polo.

We are watching the evolving cancellation of the 2020 NCAA football season. My own personal prediction is that once the Power 5 has cancelled all the body bag games with the G5 and FCS, most colleges will not find it feasible to field football this fall (university budget shortfalls + no fans in the stands + additional costs for testing athletes). I also believe any games between FCS schools and P5 schools will NOT involve payments to the FCS schools. In my model, the P5 may have a season but no one else will (this fall).

Per link and quote from link, it would appear the financial sustainability of college athletics is a bit of a question mark. It almost appears that the sustainability is as much or more of a question mark within the Power 5. The cuts required to go into hibernation might even be more painful at their level.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/08/01/nc...oronavirus

"So here’s the thing: if the comitment to play is there, the oligarchs of college football need to articulate the motive. And one of the prime motives is this: they really need the money.

Say the quiet part out loud. The money matters. A lot.

That’s not necessarily something to be ashamed of. But saying so runs counter to the instincts of many college presidents, athletic directors and conference commissioners, who prefer to bloviate about high-minded ideals and pretend tens of millions of dollars in revenue are just an incidental byproduct of football."
08-01-2020 02:42 PM
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tribeinexile Offline
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RE: College Athletics
MAC cancels fall football today (per reports). If true this is the next important domino to fall.

While health concerns are the main issue cited in the cancellation, and they are valid, I have to think the underlying reason is financial. The MAC lost all their pay-to-play games, faced having no ticket revenue or a substantial TV deal, and increased testing costs.

I seriously doubt any non-Power 5 conference will have football this fall.
08-08-2020 10:53 AM
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LeadBolt Offline
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RE: College Athletics
(08-01-2020 02:42 PM)Florida tribe fan Wrote:  
(07-31-2020 11:18 AM)tribeinexile Wrote:  I get so confused with these threads these days I thought I would try to start one focused exclusively on the financial sustainability of college athletics.

The trigger for today is George Washington's announcement that they are going from 27 to 20 sports (after 20-21 academic year). They are dropping the non-NCAA sports of men's rowing, sailing, men's and women's squash, and the NCAA sports of men's indoor track, men's tennis and women's water polo.

We are watching the evolving cancellation of the 2020 NCAA football season. My own personal prediction is that once the Power 5 has cancelled all the body bag games with the G5 and FCS, most colleges will not find it feasible to field football this fall (university budget shortfalls + no fans in the stands + additional costs for testing athletes). I also believe any games between FCS schools and P5 schools will NOT involve payments to the FCS schools. In my model, the P5 may have a season but no one else will (this fall).

Per link and quote from link, it would appear the financial sustainability of college athletics is a bit of a question mark. It almost appears that the sustainability is as much or more of a question mark within the Power 5. The cuts required to go into hibernation might even be more painful at their level.

https://www.si.com/college/2020/08/01/nc...oronavirus

"So here’s the thing: if the comitment to play is there, the oligarchs of college football need to articulate the motive. And one of the prime motives is this: they really need the money.

Say the quiet part out loud. The money matters. A lot.

That’s not necessarily something to be ashamed of. But saying so runs counter to the instincts of many college presidents, athletic directors and conference commissioners, who prefer to bloviate about high-minded ideals and pretend tens of millions of dollars in revenue are just an incidental byproduct of football."

Yes, it's a quasi-religious mantra that they use to sound superior as if money doesn't matter to them, imho.

I can't decide whether they believe it or just wish that it to be true.

I really enjoy seeing the way that Mitch Daniels is running Purdue for the benefit of the students by cutting out unneeded costs and sacred cows and holding tuition steady.
(This post was last modified: 08-08-2020 12:36 PM by LeadBolt.)
08-08-2020 12:35 PM
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mrjoolius Offline
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Read an interesting tweet that of all D1 football programs, Florida International is the last one whose schedule is unaffected by cancelations. All 12 of there opponents are still planning on a season. The other contender was Texas State, but they lost out when the MAC canceled and they lost their game vs Ohio.
08-09-2020 12:19 PM
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Tribal Offline
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College Athletics
Power Five ADs: 'Inevitable' 2020 college football season will not be played this fall - https://t.co/Ar1CRUJ1e8 https://t.co/RKDmy46xaU

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08-09-2020 06:55 PM
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nogretheogre Offline
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RE: College Athletics
This could be a big step toward a new separation of powers

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2903...=editorial
08-10-2020 08:02 AM
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TribePride91 Offline
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RE: College Athletics
I think it has been inevitable that the Power 5 would remove itself from the rest of college athletics, it is just surprising that it took a pandemic to do it. The current events make JMU's leadership look smarter and ODU's a disaster. My position including on their boards over there was it was a fool's errand if you could not get one of the roughly 64-80 seats at the P5 table. Lots of money and lots of travel for no significant benefit. But, my fear is the difficulties are going to be far more widespread that just a school staying in FCS or a G5 basically being FCS. Some Power 5 schools might not make it. Finally, the cutting of many non-revenue sports is a sad likely outcome as well.

Lastly, many schools themselves may be in trouble due to financial issues or less students due to inferior online education or need to reduce numbers due to the pandemic. I am hoping that most colleges can survive. I also have great sadness for the current students especially 2020 HS graduates who now face the possibility of another cancelled or greatly reduced experience for college. They and their classmates also have the potential to be part of something amazing if they can weather this storm.

Finding a way to give them some semblance of college life would be a crowning achievement for President Rowe, the administrators and the professors. But, it will be very difficult and incredibly challenging, especially with so many ready to criticize and slam any choice they make. I actually like the Tribe moniker in this time because it will take all of us encouraging and lifting each other up to make it through these days. Hoping for safety for all of the students and families throughout the Commonwealth, but also hoping for long-term, life-altering, meaningful College experiences like we all had many years ago.
08-10-2020 08:36 AM
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Tribe32 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: College Athletics
(08-10-2020 08:02 AM)nogretheogre Wrote:  This could be a big step toward a new separation of powers

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2903...=editorial

IMO, the NCAA has become too large and powerful. It seems like a good time to blow it up and create something with more checks and balances.

I would favor the elimination of athletic scholarships at this point also. If colleges want to have high end sports programs they can give out academic scholarships to kids with good grades.

Time for a hard look at the big business that IS college athletics.
08-10-2020 09:25 AM
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zablenoise Offline
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RE: College Athletics
(08-10-2020 09:25 AM)Tribe32 Wrote:  IMO, the NCAA has become too large and powerful. It seems like a good time to blow it up and create something with more checks and balances.

I would favor the elimination of athletic scholarships at this point also. If colleges want to have high end sports programs they can give out academic scholarships to kids with good grades.

Time for a hard look at the big business that IS college athletics.

I'm with you. Eliminate athletic scholarships. They can be academic and need based.
08-10-2020 09:44 AM
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Tribal Offline
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Just make P5 semi-pro and no longer managed by the NCAA. $1mil pay cap for the team and limitless scholarships.

Every other FBS & FCS team retains amateur status, limited scholarships with a small stipend per player.

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08-10-2020 11:34 AM
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Biggjohn43 Offline
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RE: College Athletics
ODU just cancelled all fall sports, including football!!!
08-10-2020 02:34 PM
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Florida tribe fan Offline
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RE: College Athletics
(08-10-2020 08:36 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  I think it has been inevitable that the Power 5 would remove itself from the rest of college athletics, it is just surprising that it took a pandemic to do it. The current events make JMU's leadership look smarter and ODU's a disaster. My position including on their boards over there was it was a fool's errand if you could not get one of the roughly 64-80 seats at the P5 table. Lots of money and lots of travel for no significant benefit. But, my fear is the difficulties are going to be far more widespread that just a school staying in FCS or a G5 basically being FCS. Some Power 5 schools might not make it. Finally, the cutting of many non-revenue sports is a sad likely outcome as well.

Lastly, many schools themselves may be in trouble due to financial issues or less students due to inferior online education or need to reduce numbers due to the pandemic. I am hoping that most colleges can survive. I also have great sadness for the current students especially 2020 HS graduates who now face the possibility of another cancelled or greatly reduced experience for college. They and their classmates also have the potential to be part of something amazing if they can weather this storm.

Finding a way to give them some semblance of college life would be a crowning achievement for President Rowe, the administrators and the professors. But, it will be very difficult and incredibly challenging, especially with so many ready to criticize and slam any choice they make. I actually like the Tribe moniker in this time because it will take all of us encouraging and lifting each other up to make it through these days. Hoping for safety for all of the students and families throughout the Commonwealth, but also hoping for long-term, life-altering, meaningful College experiences like we all had many years ago.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewzimba...7882e87c62

Linked article certainly has a house of cards air about it.
08-11-2020 07:27 AM
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tribeinexile Offline
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RE: College Athletics
I feel the article tries to do too much: it discusses BOTH the Power 5 and Group of 5 schools. Even it’s cursory recap of median budgets (a very poor measure) shows the two groups of schools operate in very different worlds.

I still believe a pending story to this year of Covid is the collapse of the Group of 5 business model.

I was surprised, however, by the onslaught of talk yesterday about Power 5 conferences possibly cancelling fall football. While for Group of 5 schools such a decision is probably financially driven, I don’t think this is the case with the Power 5. The two drivers (seem to me) may well be litigation (talk of long-term heart issues) and incipient player organization efforts (especially in the Big 10 and PAC 12).

Driving home from NC yesterday afternoon and listening to the local sports talk shows - let’s just say the natives are not happy with the prospect of losing big-time football this fall.
08-11-2020 08:36 AM
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nogretheogre Offline
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RE: College Athletics
"Whatever conference(s) decides to play football this fall will be taking a ridiculously high risk they may soon regret."

https://www.si.com/college/2020/08/12/nc...sec-big-12
08-12-2020 10:23 AM
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Tribal Offline
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SoCon postpones fall sports competition, option open for non-conference play https://t.co/VjDFo2QOzk

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08-13-2020 04:46 PM
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tribeinexile Offline
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RE: College Athletics
From a financial perspective, it looks like the focus moves on to MBB. I don’t know if the Tribe is still committed (for budget purposes) to three pay games but it certainly looks unlikely that we’ll play OOC. (Bubble proposals that are showing up on ESPN don’t like ones that would include W&M.)

We had good attendance for MBB last year so losing ticket sales would only inflict more pain.

Still looking for light at the end of the tunnel.
08-13-2020 05:19 PM
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tribeinexile Offline
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RE: College Athletics
08-15-2020 11:03 AM
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Tribal Offline
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NDSU finally announced they will focus on playing this spring. If the Alabama of the FCS won't play, no one should play.

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(This post was last modified: 08-15-2020 12:19 PM by Tribal.)
08-15-2020 12:18 PM
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mrjoolius Offline
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Interesting thing to monitor. Speculation that this unprecedented uncertainty could reek havok on the scholarship numbers for 2021 & 2022. There is a growing push for guys to get locked in and commit sooner rather than later.
https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/12...0220727298
https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/12...2818629633
https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/12...5781069824
(This post was last modified: 08-20-2020 08:14 AM by mrjoolius.)
08-20-2020 06:26 AM
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