This thread is a symptom of my just needing to talk about sports without facing the closing-in reality that sports won't be played anytime soon.

Now that I have that out of the way...

I have been thinking about what might happen at the P5 level in realignment when the Big 12 GOR expires. It's not too hard to imagine four schools or so leaving the Big 12 for other P5 leagues (let's just say Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas for this hypothetical). I still think the remaining Big 12 members, though probably not really P5 anymore, have the upper hand to invite AAC and MW members, rather than the other way around. The Big 12 schools are by and large bigger, richer, and more popular. I think they'd pick several AAC schools and maybe a MW school or two. I could see them adding enough to get back to 10 or maybe even 12.

We've seen this song and dance before. The remaining AAC (and MW) members are going to pick who they want from C-USA, the SB, and/or the MAC.

One way or another, if the Big 12 loses schools, it's going to make its way to the Sun Belt, and the SB is going to have to expand with somebody.

The concern I have is that if the SB loses more than one schools to the AAC or even the MW (Texas State?), that puts the league at 8 or fewer. And when there are only 8 or fewer members, all of a sudden going to the larger C-USA looks a lot more appealing. Remaining SB Schools are going to want to go where there is some strength in numbers. Maybe not the exorbitant number like the 14 C-USA now has, but a number where it's not too small to get worried the SB may go the way of the WAC.

Because of this, I hope that the Sun Belt is not putting it on the back burner of looking at FCS schools who could make some noise at this level now. Better yet, really see if some C-USA schools would have interest.

I'm not suggesting making moves imminently, just that there needs to be a plan and a backup plan because if the Big 12 loses anyone, realignment WILL reach the Sun Belt.

The PAC12 and the BIG XII are the only 2 conferences not at 14. Who do you see adding those 4 teams, where does ND finally land??? I would think the current situation may finally persuade ND to join a conference full time. I guess if they go to the ACC, they will need another to round out to 16. When the WAC went to 16 they imploded under their own weight.

Texas has flirted with the PAC12 and Oklahoma has flirted with the SEC in the past. The BIG XII will go the way as the Big East, once a BCS power conference until it was gutted and left as a G5.

Also, what happens to West Virginia, do they end up rounding out the ACC with ND???

B1G takes Kansas because of the basketball, who else do they take???

Texas would never get away with the financial BS they have pulled on the Big 12 on the SEC.

Let’s not forget, all this is Texas’ fault, they started this domino when they started screwing their conference mates in the Big 12.

ND will finally join a conference once Big Tech starts signing streaming deals with top P5 schools individually. Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, USC, even BYU and others will have their own deals with Amazon, YouTube, Facebook, etc and NBC will lose Notre Dame to one of the Big Tech companies. In this case conferences would re-align regionally most likely. Some schools like Clemson could be worse off financially since schools with national reach (even global reach) might be able to negotiate better deals (eg BYU).

Schools making their own media deals is what has ripped apart the Big 12. Conferences don’t accept schools making media deals outside the conference umbrella.

(07-12-2020 10:17 AM)Usajags Wrote:  Schools making their own media deals is what has ripped apart the Big 12. Conferences don’t accept schools making media deals outside the conference umbrella.

That’s the reason why conferences such as SEC, ACC, PAC12 etc will cease to exist and top P5 schools will sign own individual streaming deals and then form new conferences, probably quasi-conferences for scheduling purposes. Maybe Amazon and co will even dictate future games for some schools, pairing powerhouses and paying a premium.

(07-12-2020 10:33 AM)T2003 Wrote:  

(07-12-2020 10:17 AM)Usajags Wrote:  Schools making their own media deals is what has ripped apart the Big 12. Conferences don’t accept schools making media deals outside the conference umbrella.

That’s the reason why conferences such as SEC, ACC, PAC12 etc will cease to exist and top P5 schools will sign own individual streaming deals and then form new conferences, probably quasi-conferences for scheduling purposes. Maybe Amazon and co will even dictate future games for some schools, pairing powerhouses and paying a premium.

You do realize that is what ESPN does right???

I don’t know of it will ever happen, but the “Super Conferences” idea has been kicked around since the days of Bear Bryant, it’s nothing new. But will Alabama ever leave Vanderbilt??? That’s the question, will these schools that have been in bed together for 100 years split ways??? Don’t forget, most of these schools are public institutions, ultimately controlled by politicians, and those schools like Vandy, Duke and Northwestern have graduated some very influential people that will not like the idea of their school being left out or behind.

(07-12-2020 10:56 AM)Usajags Wrote:  

(07-12-2020 10:33 AM)T2003 Wrote:  

(07-12-2020 10:17 AM)Usajags Wrote:  Schools making their own media deals is what has ripped apart the Big 12. Conferences don’t accept schools making media deals outside the conference umbrella.

That’s the reason why conferences such as SEC, ACC, PAC12 etc will cease to exist and top P5 schools will sign own individual streaming deals and then form new conferences, probably quasi-conferences for scheduling purposes. Maybe Amazon and co will even dictate future games for some schools, pairing powerhouses and paying a premium.

You do realize that is what ESPN does right???

I don’t know of it will ever happen, but the “Super Conferences” idea has been kicked around since the days of Bear Bryant, it’s nothing new. But will Alabama ever leave Vanderbilt??? That’s the question, will these schools that have been in bed together for 100 years split ways??? Don’t forget, most of these schools are public institutions, ultimately controlled by politicians, and those schools like Vandy, Duke and Northwestern have graduated some very influential people that will not like the idea of their school being left out or behind.

Some P5 schools have left traditional rivals with mixed results. Missouri suddenly seemed relevant in the SEC East but Nebraska fell off the map in the Big 10 for example. I just don't see the SEC splitting up or even shedding a school or two. As pointed out in the OP the Big 12 seems like the most likely to split but if you look at revenue per team they are right up there in the top 3 with the SEC and Big 10. Why would a Big 12 school want to make less in the PAC 12 or ACC?

(07-13-2020 11:37 AM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(07-12-2020 10:56 AM)Usajags Wrote:  

(07-12-2020 10:33 AM)T2003 Wrote:  

(07-12-2020 10:17 AM)Usajags Wrote:  Schools making their own media deals is what has ripped apart the Big 12. Conferences don’t accept schools making media deals outside the conference umbrella.

That’s the reason why conferences such as SEC, ACC, PAC12 etc will cease to exist and top P5 schools will sign own individual streaming deals and then form new conferences, probably quasi-conferences for scheduling purposes. Maybe Amazon and co will even dictate future games for some schools, pairing powerhouses and paying a premium.

You do realize that is what ESPN does right???

I don’t know of it will ever happen, but the “Super Conferences” idea has been kicked around since the days of Bear Bryant, it’s nothing new. But will Alabama ever leave Vanderbilt??? That’s the question, will these schools that have been in bed together for 100 years split ways??? Don’t forget, most of these schools are public institutions, ultimately controlled by politicians, and those schools like Vandy, Duke and Northwestern have graduated some very influential people that will not like the idea of their school being left out or behind.

Some P5 schools have left traditional rivals with mixed results. Missouri suddenly seemed relevant in the SEC East but Nebraska fell off the map in the Big 10 for example. I just don't see the SEC splitting up or even shedding a school or two. As pointed out in the OP the Big 12 seems like the most likely to split but if you look at revenue per team they are right up there in the top 3 with the SEC and Big 10. Why would a Big 12 school want to make less in the PAC 12 or ACC?

If OU/Ok. State moved to the SEC first, the Big 12 drops in value dramatically. Then Texas and Kansas go the Big Ten. Who knows? There are a number of ways the Big 12 could lose members.

(07-12-2020 10:33 AM)T2003 Wrote:  

(07-12-2020 10:17 AM)Usajags Wrote:  Schools making their own media deals is what has ripped apart the Big 12. Conferences don’t accept schools making media deals outside the conference umbrella.

That’s the reason why conferences such as SEC, ACC, PAC12 etc will cease to exist and top P5 schools will sign own individual streaming deals and then form new conferences, probably quasi-conferences for scheduling purposes. Maybe Amazon and co will even dictate future games for some schools, pairing powerhouses and paying a premium.

If I'm remembering correctly, I think Amazon went to the schools and said they wanted the top 30 teams for their streaming deal. I don't think it turns into individual deals, I think it's something more like that. The top 40 programs form a league of their own and then the lineup gets revisited every 2-5 years.

Big 12 schools are making tons of money because while they are making the third most per school in conference distributions, they are also making a lot more because they each also have their own third tier media deals, most famously the LHN for Texas. So maybe no one leaves.

At the same time, I think it's telling that the GOR has not been extended. If the league wants to stay together past 2025, why not commit to staying together with a long term GOR like the Big Ten, ACC, and Pac-12 have done?

I don't see any way that the Big12 would disappear. I know that Texas and a few others flirted with the Pac-12 but I listened to an interview a while back about it and Texas Alums all agree that would have been the worst possible thing to do. UT having to play in the Pacific time zone would really hurt them. The Pac12 struggles with this every year and is often the odd man out because folks on the Eastern time zone don't stay up and watch their games. Kansas going to the Big10 is a viable option but just how bad is the NCAA doing to crack down on them in the next two years? Missouri would be the Big10's biggest target. They are an AAU school with a lot of history against those schools. They are also an outlier in the SEC. If the SEC were to back fill, they would probably look at the ACC or WVU. Even if all this happened with WVU and KU leaving. That would mean the Big12 would more than likely look to AAC and MWC to fill the 2-4 spots. The MWC would probably take UTEP as there is no other team close to their footprint. The horse race would definitely be between top CUSA and Sunbelt schools to fill whatever holes the AAC may have if they lost two or three teams.