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The dregs of the P5: worse than the middle of the G5.
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #41
RE: The dregs of the P5: worse than the middle of the G5.
(07-02-2020 09:17 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(07-01-2020 07:32 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  The point is the same, regardless of which rating system is used.

The P5 is not head and shoulders above the G5. There is considerable overlap, and there are more than 20 P5 teams that rank below the top 20 non-P5 FBS teams.

There is little question that the P5 is, indeed, head and shoulders above the G5.

The very top of the G5 is a bit better than the very bottom of the P5. Obviously, one year's ranking is pretty meaningless as a comparison. Looking at the top 7 schools in the G5 and the bottom 7 of the P5 in their 10 year average Sagarin power ratings, this is what it looks like.

Rank..School..........Rating

G5:
25....Boise State.......79.4
47....BYU.................73.6
48....Central Florida...73.4
54....Houston...........71.6
55....Navy................71.2
56....San Diego St.....71.1
57....Cincinnati.........70.4

P5:
67....Vanderbilt.........68.3
68....Indiana.............68.0
69....Virginia.............68.0
81....Purdue..............65.3
83....Illinois...............65.0
89....Rutgers.............63.1
101..Kansas..............58.5

If the top seven Go5 take us down to 57, there's 50 P5 schools above and amongst them and so not a whole lot of Go5 schools in that gap between 57 and 67.

So as far as "worse then the middle", the real "dregs" are Kansas, and possibly the Big Ten Three FB Stooges. But it seems like Vandy, Indiana and Virginia are not in that lowly position over a ten year spell.

Which is an illustration of why one year's numbers are silly: in the middle of the P5 you have a lot of schools which don't have the depth of the top schools in their conference, so with good luck with a late developing player or two, good luck with injuries and a couple of close games going their way, they get to go bowling, but with a bad luck with bad attitude players, and/or a bad run of injuries and a couple of bad breaks on some game days they have a miserable year.

And luck in football is relative to the luck of the opponent, so there's always roughly half the schools with good luck and half with bad luck in every given year.
(This post was last modified: 07-05-2020 11:59 PM by BruceMcF.)
07-05-2020 11:57 PM
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UTEPDallas Offline
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Post: #42
RE: The dregs of the P5: worse than the middle of the G5.
(07-05-2020 07:20 PM)cuseroc Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 12:52 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 12:44 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 12:40 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(07-05-2020 12:27 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Guys, I used to think the same before I attended Penn State. My logic was “give a G5 the same opportunity as the bottom of the P5 and it will work.” Not true.

There’s exceptions, of course. I believe Utah has pulled its weight in the Pac-12. It has been ranked multiple times, played in the CCG twice and was in the conversation for the Rose Bowl and CFP. But they proved they could compete at the highest level in the MWC. TCU started strong in the Big XII even though they’ve been struggling lately. They won the Peach Bowl and almost made it to the CFP in 2014. But those two are the exception rather than the rule.

You replace Rutgers, Oregon State, Wake Forest, Kansas and Vanderbilt with most G5’s and the result will still be the same. Schools like Penn State will always have an advantage in recruiting elite players even in their own conference. Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota will always be at a disadvantage compared to the Penn States, Michigans and Ohio States of the world.

I think BYU, Cincinnati, the U_F twins and Houston might be able to compete but it’ll take several recruiting classes to get to that level. Or they might never get there and become the new Oregon State or Illinois. Just a sacrificial lamb for the top schools in the conference to get an automatic win.


Overall, I agree with you. As a Memphis and Cincy fan, I admit that the Tigers would be in the bottom half of SEC football and the Bearcats in the bottom half of the Big Ten (or in the bottom half if both were, say, in the Big 12). Now in basketball, I feel both could be more competitive in any of those league affiliation scenarios. They still might not be in the top half in hoops year in and year out, but they could compete. Football would be considerably tougher (if not a losing proposition).

The reality is, there is only one P5 league (the ACC) that is home to a true "urban public" university (in this case, Louisville). Public urban schools with DI football located in cities and that are not state flagships — Temple, Memphis, Houston, Cincy, UNLV, San Diego State, UCF, USF, UAB, Charlotte, ODU, Toledo, Fresno, Boise, etc. — generally are not well suited for inclusion in the Power 5. Louisville was the exception for many, many reason (discussed on this board).

Houston was competitive in the SWC. They would be a solid mid-level P5 school.

At worst, they could be like Texas Tech but they’ll never be at the level of Texas and Oklahoma in the Big XII (well few schools can’t). I don’t think they would ever be competitive in the SEC. Just look at Texas A&M. The Pac-12? Perhaps but they don’t fit the profile so it’s a moot point. I believe if there’s any chance of Houston joining a P5 is the ACC.

Why do you feel his way? I was always of the opinion that Houston would be a lock for the B12. But then again, I guess they have enough schools in Texas.

Houston fits better as an institution in the ACC than the Pac-12 and even the Big XII. They have non flagship schools and private schools in urban areas. Cincinnati is another school that fits that profile as well. But as somebody wrote above, if you’re the ACC, why settle for fourth place in Texas? The Big XII has four Texas schools, they don’t need a fifth one just like the ACC doesn’t need the U_F twins as long as Miami and Florida State are members.
07-06-2020 12:02 AM
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