This information is credited to TexasJeremy who posted a much larger volume of data on a Eer 247 board. The information is well presented and I believe can yield quite a bit of insight into how potential realignment targets might be assessed when all conferences move to streaming platforms. And while the most obvious schools would remain the obvious targets this data dispels some assumptions and offers a new look at some schools:

2018-19 College Football Season's Nationally Ranked Games' Viewership Information:

1. SEC Total Viewers in Millions: 428.276
2. Big 10 Total Viewers in Millions: 348.378
3. Big 12 Total Viewers in Millions: 239.762
4. ACC Total Viewers in Millions: 233.157
5. PAC12 Total Viewers in Millions: 181.811



Average Viewers Per Member for the Conferences

1. SEC Average Viewers per School: 30.591M
2. Big 10 Average Viewers per School: 24.884M
3. Big 12 Average Viewers per School: 23.976M
4. ACC Average Viewers per School: 16.654M
5. PAC 12 Average Viewers per School: 15,151M


The Following Will Give by Conference the National Ranking of the School and It's Total Viewership in Millions for All Ranked Games:

SEC

1. Alabama 114.364
5. Georgia 63.410
9. Louisiana State 49.793
12. Auburn 34.278
13. Florida 30.654
16. Texas A&M 27.081
20. Mississippi State 22.718
29. Kentucky 17.038
35. Missouri 15.103
37. Tennessee 14.725
39. Mississippi 13.518
42. South Carolina 11.626
57. Vanderbilt 7.948
60. Arkansas 6.010


Big 10

2. Ohio State 86.97
7. Michigan 54.946
11. Penn State 37.297
14. Northwestern 27.360
17. Michigan State 26.427
18. Wisconsin 23.788
24. Iowa 20.686
27. Nebraska 18.456
32. Purdue 15.903
40. Maryland 12.830
45. Indiana 10.837
58. Minnesota 7.386
63. Rutgers 3.038
65. Illinois 2.454



Big 12

4. Oklahoma 65.147
8. Texas 50,710
15. West Virginia 27.186
22. Texas Christian 21.532
23. Oklahoma State 21.026
34. Iowa State 15.394
38. Texas Tech 13.760
44. Baylor 11.080
56. Kansas State 8.041
61. Kansas 5.889


ACC

3. Clemson 74.633
19. Florida State 22.979
25. Miami 20.019
26. Virginia Tech 19.422
31. Syracuse 16.552
33. Pittsburgh 15.928
48. Louisville 10.049
49. N.C. State 9.959
51. Boston College 9.458
53. Georgia Tech 8.468
54. Virginia 8.332
55. Wake Forest 8.121
59. Duke 6.727
64. North Carolina 2.610

6. Notre Dame* 61.159



PAC12


10. Washington 42.313
21. Southern Cal 21.723
28. Washington State 18.226
30. Oregon 17.035
36. Stanford 14.738
41. U.C.L.A. 12.317
42. Utah 11.188
46. Arizona State 10.480
47. Colorado 10.364
50. Arizona 9.56
52. California 9.017
62. Oregon State 4.850



Some things to ponder: West Virginia and Virginia Tech jump way up in a world which streams. Some others drop significantly. South Carolina and Arkansas don't look so hot for the SEC. Mississippi State goes up. Rutgers looks bad for the Big 10 if the purpose was to drive viewers in N.J.. It may have been fine for the subscription model but doesn't bode well at all for streaming. And Illinois, yikes! Missouri looks better somewhat based on viewership.

Of course Texas and Oklahoma are still strong, but Kansas looks even worse than before as an option.

So my challenge to you as you peruse this information is to rethink realignment priorities based on the concept that streaming will reward actual viewers. Then let's look at our preferences again.

This is of course a 1 year snap shot, but I was grateful to find the information or comparisons at all. Enjoy.

By these statistics the SEC would still have Texas and Oklahoma as prime expansion targets. But Clemson jumps way up. Florida State and Miami could receive more consideration. Virginia Tech is almost there. But all of the sudden West Virginia jumps up quite a bit and T.C.U. and Oklahoma State look more like prospects.

Surprising that NC State and UNC/Duke do so poorly too. Makes me want to let the Big 10 take Kansas/UVA/UNC/Duke to get to 18.

The probably with VT is that they are an eastern school and sending Bama/Auburn east seems significant.

On the other hand, if we get to 18 it's probably 3 divisions, and 20 is 4.

I'd still not go for WVU, as I think they are culturally a good fit with Syracuse/Pitt and other former Big East schools. Send them to the ACC and they rank pretty well too.

I've already been wondering about OK St. On their own. If OK went to the Big 10 with Kansas, then OK St. Could be an interesting play. OK would be separated from normal rivals and recruiting grounds.

Obviously Texas is still the big wig, but I like the idea of TCU if Texas stayed in the Big 12, went Indy, chose the PAC, or reformed the SWC.

I also like grabbing Iowa St. more, they're similar to TN based on these numbers.

A OK St., Iowa St., TCU, VT, FSU, and Clemson grab to move to 20 would probably feel like a loss if the Big 10 got Texas or OK, but otherwise is pretty solid based on these numbers.

At 18: St., TCU, VT, Clemson

Would be curious about G5 numbers, especially a school like USF.

The ACC seems fairly weak as a whole. Some of those numbers in the bottom half might fluctuate, but I'm not sure they aren't playing a zero sum game.

I have 2 basic solutions...lol

1. ESPN splits up the ACC among 3 different leagues.

2. The average Big 12 viewership is pretty close to that of the Big Ten. Which brings me back to the old idea of merging the SEC and the Big 12. That would be 24 schools with a pretty strong average viewership from top to bottom.

Thinking about these numbers more carefully, I think any effort ESPN puts into creating a quality stream will have to come down to ensuring that the average viewership from the top of the conference to the bottom is fairly level and stable.

What I mean is that you really can't have a top heavy league when it comes to viewership because then you're going to be either A) paying a ton of money for schools that don't generate a lot of viewers or B) underpaying a certain number of decent programs and reducing their capacity to compete. The latter is a problem because it's motivation for certain schools not to play along with the plan.

They could probably create a more efficient product by moving a few schools from the ACC into the SEC.

Florida State, Miami, Clemson, and Virginia Tech

These are most likely the top 4 ratings generators in that league on a year-to-year basis. I think Miami and Virginia Tech are very interesting because their teams haven't been that great in recent years so their numbers would seem to more in line with their true popularity. Put them in the SEC and the value is multiplied. For ESPN, their investment in the SEC is more secure.

For the rest of the ACC?

We may need to re-evaluate what a Power conference is. I have to wonder if you added a handful of American teams to the ACC if the numbers wouldn't be all that different?

Some hard core things to think about:
Vanderbilt is the accepted tail end Charlie of the SEC. Who knew that Arkansas's viewership would be dead last and significantly below that of Vanderbilt?

As for realignment it reinforces that the SEC's top prospects would be Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12 and Clemson and Florida State from the ACC. But who could have guessed that based on actual audience that West Virginia, T.C.U. and Oklahoma State would fall into the acceptable range and that West Virginia would be the third best pick from the Big 12 in terms of audience. Miami and Virginia Tech are comparable. N.C. State was really out of the range for consideration, but still way ahead of North Carolina.

So my takeaway is that if you were going just by audience as the criteria for realignment (and that may well be the main factor in a world of streaming) Oklahoma and West Virginia would be an acceptable pairing as would Texas and West Virginia, or even Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, or preferably Oklahoma and T.C.U..

So for those who think in terms of going to 18 that opens up more possibilities than using the other criteria would. Viewership IMO is going to make attendance obsolete like it has in the NFL and will redefine eventually what media payouts look like. And doing both of those things it will also change how the WSJ looks at valuations.

With all of that however, if we were to move to 18 out of the Big 12 the Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech would still work, as would Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, as would Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas and West Virginia.

Play around with it because the arrangements are a bit more variable and interesting.

(06-28-2020 04:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Some hard core things to think about:
Vanderbilt is the accepted tail end Charlie of the SEC. Who knew that Arkansas's viewership would be dead last and significantly below that of Vanderbilt?

As for realignment it reinforces that the SEC's top prospects would be Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12 and Clemson and Florida State from the ACC. But who could have guessed that based on actual audience that West Virginia, T.C.U. and Oklahoma State would fall into the acceptable range and that West Virginia would be the third best pick from the Big 12 in terms of audience. Miami and Virginia Tech are comparable. N.C. State was really out of the range for consideration, but still way ahead of North Carolina.

So my takeaway is that if you were going just by audience as the criteria for realignment (and that may well be the main factor in a world of streaming) Oklahoma and West Virginia would be an acceptable pairing as would Texas and West Virginia, or even Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, or preferably Oklahoma and T.C.U..

So for those who think in terms of going to 18 that opens up more possibilities than using the other criteria would. Viewership IMO is going to make attendance obsolete like it has in the NFL and will redefine eventually what media payouts look like. And doing both of those things it will also change how the WSJ looks at valuations.

With all of that however, if we were to move to 18 out of the Big 12 the Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech would still work, as would Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, as would Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas and West Virginia.

Play around with it because the arrangements are a bit more variable and interesting.

I've never minded the idea of West Virginia. In part because it gains us a little exposure in the Mid-Atlantic without having to access both NC and VA. They also have fans in DC and PA so that's a bonus. They provide a nice regional rival for Kentucky along with a little bit of punch in both football and basketball.

Texas is still the biggest prize, but they have the most baggage. Lubbock is a heck of a long trip for even the closest competitors. If that addition is required then I don't really like the move anyway.

I would be fine with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State as a package. It would be a shame to lose their rivalry so there's really no reason to separate them.

TCU would provide a nice presence in DFW so I like that as well.

Iowa State even would fall basically in the middle of the pack for the SEC...just ahead of Missouri. That's a long trip, but not a bad option in some respects.

I think if I had to pick 4 from the Big 12 then it would be Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, and West Virginia.

However, I'm not against picking 6 either.

I’m not concerned about Arkansas’ viewership last season as the team has been soooooooo horrible to watch that most diehard hog fans usually guessed how many quarters they thought they would get to before abandoning the game.

West Virginia is a team to round off with. They’ve upgraded their sporting facilities to meet SEC Standards. They never added enough in cable box numbers from the small number of households in their state, but a ton of their alumni and student body come from western Pennsylvania, The DMV (the District of Columbia and surrounding areas, and New Jersey. I went to my brother’s orientation at WVU, half the students were from Jersey. More importantly, the craze and support for football and basketball is there. Also, according to those numbers, WVU beat out Texas A&M in viewers last season.

Virginia Tech, FSU, Clemson, and even Miami would make the grade from the ACC.

OU, Texas make the grade, I see OU and OSU as a workable counter offer if the Big Ten made a serious run at OU.

Didn’t know there was that much support for Washington in the PAC. Bravo.

(06-28-2020 10:15 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  I’m not concerned about Arkansas’ viewership last season as the team has been soooooooo horrible to watch that most diehard hog fans usually guessed how many quarters they thought they would get to before abandoning the game.

West Virginia is a team to round off with. They’ve upgraded their sporting facilities to meet SEC Standards. They never added enough in cable box numbers from the small number of households in their state, but a ton of their alumni and student body come from western Pennsylvania, The DMV (the District of Columbia and surrounding areas, and New Jersey. I went to my brother’s orientation at WVU, half the students were from Jersey. More importantly, the craze and support for football and basketball is there. Also, according to those numbers, WVU beat out Texas A&M in viewers last season.

Virginia Tech, FSU, Clemson, and even Miami would make the grade from the ACC.

OU, Texas make the grade, I see OU and OSU as a workable counter offer if the Big Ten made a serious run at OU.

Didn’t know there was that much support for Washington in the PAC. Bravo.

I would agree. The team has been pretty bad the last couple of years. They haven't gotten a ton of decent time slots by virtue of that alone.

I would guess the average viewership for Arkansas is a good bit higher, but the last couple of years have not been a good sample size.

(06-28-2020 11:16 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(06-28-2020 10:15 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  I’m not concerned about Arkansas’ viewership last season as the team has been soooooooo horrible to watch that most diehard hog fans usually guessed how many quarters they thought they would get to before abandoning the game.

West Virginia is a team to round off with. They’ve upgraded their sporting facilities to meet SEC Standards. They never added enough in cable box numbers from the small number of households in their state, but a ton of their alumni and student body come from western Pennsylvania, The DMV (the District of Columbia and surrounding areas, and New Jersey. I went to my brother’s orientation at WVU, half the students were from Jersey. More importantly, the craze and support for football and basketball is there. Also, according to those numbers, WVU beat out Texas A&M in viewers last season.

Virginia Tech, FSU, Clemson, and even Miami would make the grade from the ACC.

OU, Texas make the grade, I see OU and OSU as a workable counter offer if the Big Ten made a serious run at OU.

Didn’t know there was that much support for Washington in the PAC. Bravo.

I would agree. The team has been pretty bad the last couple of years. They haven't gotten a ton of decent time slots by virtue of that alone.

I would guess the average viewership for Arkansas is a good bit higher, but the last couple of years have not been a good sample size.

It’s been painful to watch since Petrino got fired. Bert’s teams always looked like they were missing a couple of players on the field, but they were well coached and prepared. We thought things couldn’t get worse than the John L. Smith season, but then the good old boy Network that fired Bielema started the Chad Morris errora, I mean era.

This new AD, Hunter Yurachek, made a great MB hire with Eric Musselman. I’m hoping the same results beat out with Sam Pittman. I’m not expecting anything this season as the team has a new head coach, two new coordinators and no spring ball to get the process started.

Months back I mentioned Miami as a plausible expansion candidate if expansion was fluid, and I received critical and dismissive replies. One stated, with concurrence, that TCU would be so much better. I don't buy that outright. My point was in the context of which ACC school(s) would be open to moving if circumstances for movement came to fruitation.

(06-30-2020 11:09 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  Months back I mentioned Miami as a plausible expansion candidate if expansion was fluid, and I received critical and dismissive replies. One stated, with concurrence, that TCU would be so much better. I don't buy that outright. My point was in the context of which ACC school(s) would be open to moving if circumstances for movement came to fruitation.

i recall that and I too was dismissive of Miami for all of the other reasons based on data. I freely admit that I was surprised to see they still had that kind of viewership. Those are some interesting statistics.

(06-27-2020 05:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  This information is credited to TexasJeremy who posted a much larger volume of data on a Eer 247 board. The information is well presented and I believe can yield quite a bit of insight into how potential realignment targets might be assessed when all conferences move to streaming platforms. And while the most obvious schools would remain the obvious targets this data dispels some assumptions and offers a new look at some schools:

2018-19 College Football Season's Nationally Ranked Games' Viewership Information:

1. SEC Total Viewers in Millions: 428.276
2. Big 10 Total Viewers in Millions: 348.378
3. Big 12 Total Viewers in Millions: 239.762
4. ACC Total Viewers in Millions: 233.157
5. PAC12 Total Viewers in Millions: 181.811



Average Viewers Per Member for the Conferences

1. SEC Average Viewers per School: 30.591M
2. Big 10 Average Viewers per School: 24.884M
3. Big 12 Average Viewers per School: 23.976M
4. ACC Average Viewers per School: 16.654M
5. PAC 12 Average Viewers per School: 15,151M


The Following Will Give by Conference the National Ranking of the School and It's Total Viewership in Millions for All Ranked Games:

SEC

1. Alabama 114.364
5. Georgia 63.410
9. Louisiana State 49.793
12. Auburn 34.278
13. Florida 30.654
16. Texas A&M 27.081
20. Mississippi State 22.718
29. Kentucky 17.038
35. Missouri 15.103
37. Tennessee 14.725
39. Mississippi 13.518
42. South Carolina 11.626
57. Vanderbilt 7.948
60. Arkansas 6.010


Big 10

2. Ohio State 86.97
7. Michigan 54.946
11. Penn State 37.297
14. Northwestern 27.360
17. Michigan State 26.427
18. Wisconsin 23.788
24. Iowa 20.686
27. Nebraska 18.456
32. Purdue 15.903
40. Maryland 12.830
45. Indiana 10.837
58. Minnesota 7.386
63. Rutgers 3.038
65. Illinois 2.454



Big 12

4. Oklahoma 65.147
8. Texas 50,710
15. West Virginia 27.186
22. Texas Christian 21.532
23. Oklahoma State 21.026
34. Iowa State 15.394
38. Texas Tech 13.760
44. Baylor 11.080
56. Kansas State 8.041
61. Kansas 5.889


ACC

3. Clemson 74.633
19. Florida State 22.979
25. Miami 20.019
26. Virginia Tech 19.422
31. Syracuse 16.552
33. Pittsburgh 15.928
48. Louisville 10.049
49. N.C. State 9.959
51. Boston College 9.458
53. Georgia Tech 8.468
54. Virginia 8.332
55. Wake Forest 8.121
59. Duke 6.727
64. North Carolina 2.610

6. Notre Dame* 61.159



PAC12


10. Washington 42.313
21. Southern Cal 21.723
28. Washington State 18.226
30. Oregon 17.035
36. Stanford 14.738
41. U.C.L.A. 12.317
42. Utah 11.188
46. Arizona State 10.480
47. Colorado 10.364
50. Arizona 9.56
52. California 9.017
62. Oregon State 4.850



Some things to ponder: West Virginia and Virginia Tech jump way up in a world which streams. Some others drop significantly. South Carolina and Arkansas don't look so hot for the SEC. Mississippi State goes up. Rutgers looks bad for the Big 10 if the purpose was to drive viewers in N.J.. It may have been fine for the subscription model but doesn't bode well at all for streaming. And Illinois, yikes! Missouri looks better somewhat based on viewership.

Of course Texas and Oklahoma are still strong, but Kansas looks even worse than before as an option.

So my challenge to you as you peruse this information is to rethink realignment priorities based on the concept that streaming will reward actual viewers. Then let's look at our preferences again.

This is of course a 1 year snap shot, but I was grateful to find the information or comparisons at all. Enjoy.

By these statistics the SEC would still have Texas and Oklahoma as prime expansion targets. But Clemson jumps way up. Florida State and Miami could receive more consideration. Virginia Tech is almost there. But all of the sudden West Virginia jumps up quite a bit and T.C.U. and Oklahoma State look more like prospects.

It surprises me how K-State could be so low. What else is there to do in Kansas??? And unlike KU, K-State does have some football tradition.

(06-29-2020 06:08 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(06-28-2020 11:16 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(06-28-2020 10:15 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  I’m not concerned about Arkansas’ viewership last season as the team has been soooooooo horrible to watch that most diehard hog fans usually guessed how many quarters they thought they would get to before abandoning the game.

West Virginia is a team to round off with. They’ve upgraded their sporting facilities to meet SEC Standards. They never added enough in cable box numbers from the small number of households in their state, but a ton of their alumni and student body come from western Pennsylvania, The DMV (the District of Columbia and surrounding areas, and New Jersey. I went to my brother’s orientation at WVU, half the students were from Jersey. More importantly, the craze and support for football and basketball is there. Also, according to those numbers, WVU beat out Texas A&M in viewers last season.

Virginia Tech, FSU, Clemson, and even Miami would make the grade from the ACC.

OU, Texas make the grade, I see OU and OSU as a workable counter offer if the Big Ten made a serious run at OU.

Didn’t know there was that much support for Washington in the PAC. Bravo.

I would agree. The team has been pretty bad the last couple of years. They haven't gotten a ton of decent time slots by virtue of that alone.

I would guess the average viewership for Arkansas is a good bit higher, but the last couple of years have not been a good sample size.

It’s been painful to watch since Petrino got fired. Bert’s teams always looked like they were missing a couple of players on the field, but they were well coached and prepared. We thought things couldn’t get worse than the John L. Smith season, but then the good old boy Network that fired Bielema started the Chad Morris errora, I mean era.

This new AD, Hunter Yurachek, made a great MB hire with Eric Musselman. I’m hoping the same results beat out with Sam Pittman. I’m not expecting anything this season as the team has a new head coach, two new coordinators and no spring ball to get the process started.

Are lawns in Arkansas well-mowed in the fall, lol??

I have said in the past Arkansas in the Big 12 is a better economic move for the networks. I realize they have had a bad run but I think they are a better economic asset in the Big 12 than the SEC to the network.

Do we have non-power viewership numbers? I’m curious as to where they are