I read both articles, and I appreciate both authors for bringing a unique slant during our sportsless time.
Oliveros's Breeze article is obviously going to homer it up a bit for DiNucci. He also found a good quote to pull from Stephen Jones comparing the situation to Romo. Honestly, in terms of career trajectory, there's not much opportunity difference between a UDFA and a late rounder. Players have legitimate opportunities at a successful career. He is a bit dismissive of Dalton not being a "winner" though.
Williams from the Star counters by saying "QB wins isn't a stat" in defense of Dalton, but he doesn't really give any actual stats. So let's dive in a bit.
Dalton has 20 career fourth quarter comebacks, 14 of which have come against teams against a winning record. That's 9th among players active as of 2019, so 8th among currently active QBs due to Eli's retirement. Every QB ahead of him has played more seasons (some around twice as many), except Russell Wilson who came in one year after Dalton. Again, this is kind of a team stat, but the Bengals as a team haven't been nearly as good as the teams of most of the other QBs on the list. So I think it speaks to Dalton's effectiveness in his role.
(source:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/l...active.htm )
Let's dig into some more advanced metrics:
(source:
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/andy-...#!#metrics)
2019 was a bad year for the Bengals. Yep. Check out the "supporting cast efficiency" rating for Dalton. #32. This stat weights the production premiums of a QB's RB, WR, and TE teammates. Dalton had the least efficient skill players in the league around him, and that's why we throw out "team wins" as a stat measuring QB effectiveness. Dalton also finished #32 in receiver target separation. He literally, out of anybody in the league, had the fewest guys get open for him. However, he still finished #11 in accuracy rating according to Player Profiler. That stat is developed by analysis of game film and grading each throw from the season. That's an impressive finish in the midst of a bad season.
My subjective opinion is that Dalton has always been a "good" NFL quarterback. There have certainly been objectively worse QBs to win many NFL games and championships.
(If you're curious, the Cowboys were #8 in the league in "supporting cast efficiency." No knock on Dak really though. He actually had the most passes dropped of any QB in the league, and was #9 in QB accuracy rating. He still was good enough on his deep balls and efficient enough in the red zone to parlay the #8 supporting cast and #9 accuracy, along with leading the league in having his passes dropped, into finishing second in yards, second in air yards, and fourth in TD passes. In summary, Dak had a good season last year.)
https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/dak-prescott/
What's this all mean? I don't know. I have fun looking at stats might be the biggest takeaway.
If Dak is absent from the Cowboys, Dalton's good enough to get the starting shot for the Cowboys.
I'm rooting hard for DiNucci to make the roster and develop/get a shot to be a starter. I think his best path is something similar to Romo - do well on the team a few years and get an opening. His best non-injury path (because nobody wants to root for injuries) in Dallas starts with Dak not re-signing. His best overall path is probably be a good NFL roster member in Dallas, show well in preseason, make good impressions, then sign elsewhere. Kind of like the Aaron Brooks path where he started in Green Bay with no path to a starting gig then carved out a good career in New Orleans.