(06-16-2020 05:03 PM)CollegeCard Wrote: (06-15-2020 10:50 PM)Statefan Wrote: Amazingly enough NC State has the same record as you during your time in the ACC 44-33.
I'm only jumping in to shed light on dubious data. Let's not compare apples and oranges, as including out of conference records is dubious when out of conference P5 matchups since 2014 make up 11 of 24 games for UofL, but only 4 of 24 for NC State.
ACC play since UofL joined the league:
UofL: 26-22 (.500 or better 5 of 6 years)
NC State: 21-27 (.500 or better 2 of 6 years)
I assume both fans bases will tell you they want better and both schools had a year they bottomed out (0-8 in '18 for UofL, 1-7 in '19 for State), but it's not been even production the last six years among the two schools.
You have non-historic rival UVa as your designated cross over game. UVa is 34-42 over the last 7 years. You other Coastal teams have finished with no better than 8 wins in that span and the one you played have a record of 34-42. So your out of Division slate has been 68-84 these last 7 years.
NC State has it's historic at the throat rival. UNC is 37-39 these last 7 years. But with an 11 win campaign. Our other Coastal foes are 43-34 having caught all but one with winning seasons and one with 11 wins and another with 9. Our out of division slate the last 7 years is 80-71.
Put another way, You have not played a ranked cross division game in the past 7 years and you played the Coastal champ one. State has played Three top 20 ranked Coastal opponents, three of whom won the Coastal. Even UVa in 2018 who finished behind behind Pitt in conference standings, had the most wins in the Coastal
I have no intent to put down Louisville.
Louisville has a much easier draw of cross Division rivals than NC State.
GT has the hardest cross foe - Clemson
Miami has the second hardest - FSU
BC has the third most difficult with VT
State has the fourth most difficult but always the worst luck regarding the second school
Add the average the two best programs in the ACC, with at least the second most difficult cross over slate and you get 2-3 games lost out of the gate. Even if you get one of those taken care of, you have Clemson, FSU, or ND the next week . People forget that when FSU was building their program, they controlled who they played and win. The could schedule a breather.
The disparity between Clemson and the rest of us is such that if Clemson is fully ready and mad, the beating you take will stay with you the next week they will beat you twice.
As they way things are not I think the easiest cross Division permanent rivals are and by easiest I mean the first team has certain advantages over the second - it could be coaching, talent, luck, chip on the shoulder, etc.:
Louisville over UVA
Wake over Duke
Pitt over Syracuse
NCSU over Carolina
VT over BC
FSU over Miami
Clemson over GT
Of course no one really cares for stats. What matters is who much money you can apply to the problem so that you get the best talent in your house. If you are cheap, the results of being cheap show.