In the last 20 years these 11 schools have all won a FBS National Championship:
LSU (2 1/2)
Clemson (2)
Alabama (5)
Ohio St (2)
Florida St
Auburn
Florida (2)
Texas
USC (1 1/2)
Miami (Fla.)
Oklahoma

My question is outside this very elite group which schools have the recruiting base, coaching, facilities and fan support to compete and win a National Championship? I'm not talking about a one off blind squirrel with a nut scenario but a real program to make it to the top.

Notre Dame?
Georgia?
Texas A&M?
Michigan?
Penn St?
Oklahoma St?
Stanford?
Oregon?

Least likely: Oklahoma State and Stanford

I would rank them:

Georgia
Penn State
TAMU
Oregon
Notre Dame
Michigan
N

I bet Caltech and MIT could literally build a champion

(06-02-2020 02:29 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  I bet Caltech and MIT could literally build a champion

Maybe ODU could contract them to build ODU into a relevant CUSA program.

(06-02-2020 02:20 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  In the last 20 years these 11 schools have all won a FBS National Championship:
LSU (2 1/2)
Clemson (2)
Alabama (5)
Ohio St (2)
Florida St
Auburn
Florida (2)
Texas
USC (1 1/2)
Miami (Fla.)
Oklahoma

My question is outside this very elite group which schools have the recruiting base, coaching, facilities and fan support to compete and win a National Championship? I'm not talking about a one off blind squirrel with a nut scenario but a real program to make it to the top.

Notre Dame?
Georgia?
Texas A&M?
Michigan?
Penn St?
Oklahoma St?
Stanford?
Oregon?

Take this one step further, in the last 20 seasons, which schools lost in the championship game?

3x: Oklahoma
2x: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio St, Oregon
1x: Auburn, Florida St, Georgia, LSU, Miami FL, Notre Dame, Texas, USC

And another step, since the CFP began, which schools lost in the semifinals?

4x: Oklahoma
2x: Ohio St
1x: Alabama, Clemson, Florida St, Michigan St, Notre Dame, Washington

---

Its pretty much the same teams year-in, year-out.

Tennessee could, in theory, win a title.

(06-02-2020 02:29 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  I bet Caltech and MIT could literally build a champion

They did play in the Rose Bowl... oh, wait, that was a prank engineered by a Caltech student (who received course credit for it), changing the scoreboard during the 1984 Rose Bowl Game from "UCLA 38, Illinois 9" to "Caltech 38, MIT 9".

(06-02-2020 03:32 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  Tennessee could, in theory, win a title.

Tennessee is the tops on my list, too. They're always top-10 in attendance, no matter how awful they are. Also top-20 in basketball attendance every year (#4 last year!)


Tennessee
Georgia
Penn State
Notre Dame
Michigan
Texas A&M

After that, about half of the P5 has almost as many resources as the big boys and could field a legit title contender in any given year.

Oregon, Michigan State, and Washington crashed the first 3 playoffs. TCU had a legit team in 2014 & Wisconsin in 2017. Even Cincinnati proved it had a legit title contender in 2009 by beating 4 ranked teams & sending 12 of its starters to multiyear NFL careers (as well as several other shorter NFL careers and All-Americans). And that was back before Cincinnati really committed the resources to compete.

(06-02-2020 02:20 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  In the last 20 years these 11 schools have all won a FBS National Championship:

LSU (3)

Corrected that for you. Give USC a 1/2 championship for 2003 if you want, but during the BCS era the BCS champion was the official champ of the member conferences, so that warrants a full share.

The universe is pretty small.

Over the last 35 years, there are 20 schools that have finished in the AP top 5 four or more times. The 11 you mentioned, plus Penn St., Michigan, Nebraska, Tennessee, Notre Dame and Colorado, all of whom have titles in those 35 years, plus Washington, Oregon and Georgia (who won in 1980). Nobody else has finished in the top 5 more than twice. Those same 20 all have 2 or more top 3 finishes. Only 7 other schools have any top 3 finishes and only TCU has 2.

If you go back to 1968, each of those 20 has at least five top 5. Nobody else has more than 3 (and then only UCLA, Pitt and Arizona St.). Each also has at least three top 3 finishes. Only 12 other schools have finished in the top 3 with only TCU and Pitt having done it twice. Those 20 schools (18 of whom have titles) have 50 of the 52 titles with only Pitt and BYU interrupting.

The schools outside those 20 that have managed a top 3 finish:
1985-present
TCU (2 times)
Virginia Tech
Utah
Oklahoma St.
Stanford
Michigan St.
Georgia Tech (coaches #1 that year)

1968 to present
Those 7 +
Pitt (twice including #1 finish)
SMU
Arizona St.
Arkansas
BYU (#1 finish)

(06-03-2020 02:27 PM)bullet Wrote:  The schools outside those 20 that have managed a top 3 finish:
1985-present
TCU (2 times)
Virginia Tech
Utah
Oklahoma St.
Stanford
Michigan St.
Georgia Tech (coaches #1 that year)

1968 to present
Those 7 +
Pitt (twice including #1 finish)
SMU
Arizona St.
Arkansas
BYU (#1 finish)

Good stuff thanks for the research!

Tennessee has won it all with Tee Martin at QB..., but having Peyton Manning there for 4 years before that could have helped recruiting there to help them win a championship.

It's tough for a non traditional power to crack the top 5, much less win it all.

(06-02-2020 02:32 PM)Georgia_Power_Company Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 02:29 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  I bet Caltech and MIT could literally build a champion

Maybe ODU could contract them to build ODU into a relevant CUSA program.

I heard GaSo reached out to them but when they arrived the townspeople started pelting them with Bibles.

Texas aggys will never win a Football championship despite the one that says 20_ _ on Jimbo's desk.

I'm a TN fan so I'm biased, but I do think we have a shot. The problem is:
1. Will the university get out of its own way (ala the Schiano/coaching search mess).
2. We have more championship winning schools to overcome in our conference schedule than most (Alabama every year, if we were to win the east, twice, LSU/Auburn, and then Georgia and Florida. That is 8 of the past 20 championship. This year we don't play LSU or Auburn, but we do play OK. So we probably have the toughest path back to a natty.

Another way that I have heard to look at who has a chance in the upcoming years is the recruiting "blue blood" ratio: Are 50% or more of recruits 4-5 stars?

Using 24/7 rankings for 2021 (I know that 1- using one years data is not enough, I think it is supposed to be a rolling average, and 2- 2021 is incomplete, but I think it gives a good barometer).

Teams that meet the standard:
Ohio State 15/19
Clemson 12/13
USC 10/15
UNC 10/15*
Florida 9/17
LSU 9/12
Oregon 8/12*
Georgia 8/9*
ND 7/10*
Texas 7/11*
Texas A&M 6/10*
Auburn 5/9
OK 4/7
Alabama 5/6

So teams that meet this criteria outside of the original list:
UNC, Oregon, Georgia, ND, Texas, Texas A&M

Teams that are close:
Michigan 8/17 (47.06%)
TN 10/24 (41.666%)
Miami (40%)
Minnesota 5/18 (27%)

Oregon makes sense as a team that just has to survive the PAC with only 1 loss to have a decent shot at the playoffs.

North Carolina is interesting. They have to go through Clemson in the ACC Championship though.

Georgia has made it to the Natty, just has to pull it off.
ND has already been in the playoffs, and Texas just needs to get their act together.
Texas A&M, Michigan, and TN are all wildcards.

(06-04-2020 10:46 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I'm a TN fan so I'm biased, but I do think we have a shot. The problem is:
1. Will the university get out of its own way (ala the Schiano/coaching search mess).
2. We have more championship winning schools to overcome in our conference schedule than most (Alabama every year, if we were to win the east, twice, LSU/Auburn, and then Georgia and Florida. That is 8 of the past 20 championship. This year we don't play LSU or Auburn, but we do play OK. So we probably have the toughest path back to a natty.

If the biggest obstacle in the past decade was disastrous hiring processes, then that means your overall program has a legit shot.

Consider: schools like Nebraska and Texas have had great hiring processes, but they haven't come close in the last 10 years. North Carolina, Mississippi State, and Iowa have had great coaches, and they haven't come close.


As for your second point... a tough annual schedule hasn't stopped Alabama, Auburn, LSU, or Florida. Or Ohio State and Oklahoma, who play 9 conference games.

Everyone talks about LSU's historically strong 2019 schedule. But Ohio State plays Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State every year. Last year they also had to beat a top-10 Wisconsin team twice and two 11-win teams out of conference.

(06-04-2020 12:38 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 10:46 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I'm a TN fan so I'm biased, but I do think we have a shot. The problem is:
1. Will the university get out of its own way (ala the Schiano/coaching search mess).
2. We have more championship winning schools to overcome in our conference schedule than most (Alabama every year, if we were to win the east, twice, LSU/Auburn, and then Georgia and Florida. That is 8 of the past 20 championship. This year we don't play LSU or Auburn, but we do play OK. So we probably have the toughest path back to a natty.

If the biggest obstacle in the past decade was disastrous hiring processes, then that means your overall program has a legit shot.

Consider: schools like Nebraska and Texas have had great hiring processes, but they haven't come close in the last 10 years. North Carolina, Mississippi State, and Iowa have had great coaches, and they haven't come close.


As for your second point... a tough annual schedule hasn't stopped Alabama, Auburn, LSU, or Florida. Or Ohio State and Oklahoma, who play 9 conference games.

Everyone talks about LSU's historically strong 2019 schedule. But Ohio State plays Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State every year. Last year they also had to beat a top-10 Wisconsin team twice and two 11-win teams out of conference.

To clarify, I think that TN's issues are more systemic than just the hiring process. Yes, Kiffin left us in a bind and we had to grasp at straws to get Dooley, but I actually thought Jones was a decent get. Pruitt seems to be a solid coach (loss to Georgia St. aside), and so the issue is not the coaching hire itself, but the circumstances that led to that hire, and the public manner in which it played out.

And I guess what I am saying about strength of schedule is that TN would be more like those Wisconsin and Penn St teams. They have a great team and are true contenders, but having to get through the elites like Ohio St. makes it tough.

Though our recruiting numbers above show that we should be contenders.

(06-04-2020 01:08 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 12:38 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 10:46 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I'm a TN fan so I'm biased, but I do think we have a shot. The problem is:
1. Will the university get out of its own way (ala the Schiano/coaching search mess).
2. We have more championship winning schools to overcome in our conference schedule than most (Alabama every year, if we were to win the east, twice, LSU/Auburn, and then Georgia and Florida. That is 8 of the past 20 championship. This year we don't play LSU or Auburn, but we do play OK. So we probably have the toughest path back to a natty.

If the biggest obstacle in the past decade was disastrous hiring processes, then that means your overall program has a legit shot.

Consider: schools like Nebraska and Texas have had great hiring processes, but they haven't come close in the last 10 years. North Carolina, Mississippi State, and Iowa have had great coaches, and they haven't come close.


As for your second point... a tough annual schedule hasn't stopped Alabama, Auburn, LSU, or Florida. Or Ohio State and Oklahoma, who play 9 conference games.

Everyone talks about LSU's historically strong 2019 schedule. But Ohio State plays Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State every year. Last year they also had to beat a top-10 Wisconsin team twice and two 11-win teams out of conference.

To clarify, I think that TN's issues are more systemic than just the hiring process. Yes, Kiffin left us in a bind and we had to grasp at straws to get Dooley, but I actually thought Jones was a decent get. Pruitt seems to be a solid coach (loss to Georgia St. aside), and so the issue is not the coaching hire itself, but the circumstances that led to that hire, and the public manner in which it played out.

And I guess what I am saying about strength of schedule is that TN would be more like those Wisconsin and Penn St teams. They have a great team and are true contenders, but having to get through the elites like Ohio St. makes it tough.

Though our recruiting numbers above show that we should be contenders.

If Tennessee wins the SEC they most likely are in the playoff which I guess is true of the other SEC schools as well. But I wouldn't say every SEC school is a threat to win the conference without a major turnaround...think Vandy or Arkansas. Tennessee has most of the pieces in place so yes they could be at the top of the SEC again one day IMHO.

(06-04-2020 01:08 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 12:38 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(06-04-2020 10:46 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I'm a TN fan so I'm biased, but I do think we have a shot. The problem is:
1. Will the university get out of its own way (ala the Schiano/coaching search mess).
2. We have more championship winning schools to overcome in our conference schedule than most (Alabama every year, if we were to win the east, twice, LSU/Auburn, and then Georgia and Florida. That is 8 of the past 20 championship. This year we don't play LSU or Auburn, but we do play OK. So we probably have the toughest path back to a natty.

If the biggest obstacle in the past decade was disastrous hiring processes, then that means your overall program has a legit shot.

Consider: schools like Nebraska and Texas have had great hiring processes, but they haven't come close in the last 10 years. North Carolina, Mississippi State, and Iowa have had great coaches, and they haven't come close.


As for your second point... a tough annual schedule hasn't stopped Alabama, Auburn, LSU, or Florida. Or Ohio State and Oklahoma, who play 9 conference games.

Everyone talks about LSU's historically strong 2019 schedule. But Ohio State plays Michigan, Penn State, and Michigan State every year. Last year they also had to beat a top-10 Wisconsin team twice and two 11-win teams out of conference.

To clarify, I think that TN's issues are more systemic than just the hiring process. Yes, Kiffin left us in a bind and we had to grasp at straws to get Dooley, but I actually thought Jones was a decent get. Pruitt seems to be a solid coach (loss to Georgia St. aside), and so the issue is not the coaching hire itself, but the circumstances that led to that hire, and the public manner in which it played out.

And I guess what I am saying about strength of schedule is that TN would be more like those Wisconsin and Penn St teams. They have a great team and are true contenders, but having to get through the elites like Ohio St. makes it tough.

Though our recruiting numbers above show that we should be contenders.

Jones was a horrible hire for Tennessee from the start.

Cincinnati fans knew him as a good motivational speaker who does things the Right Way, but the the definition of mediocre at coaching football.

Just look at who else tried to hire Jones - he did a whirlwind tour of Colorado, Purdue, and Tennessee. Are those Tennessee's peers? Wisconsin & Auburn also had openings that year, but they had no interest in Jones. Arkansas & NC State had the home-run hires that year (although Arkansas looked bad in hindsight, it was widely looked on as a coup when the took Bielema from Wisconsin).

I think if Jones had accepted the Purdue job instead of Tennessee, he'd have averaged 6-8 wins a year and he'd still be there today. Purdue (like Cincinnati) places just as much value on having upstanding citizens as winning conference championships. But 6-8 wins at Tennessee gets you fired, and there's no bonus points for following the rules.