(06-02-2020 05:10 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:02 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 10:54 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-01-2020 05:08 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  If the Big 12 were to lose 4 teams, which teams would the conference reload with?

.

NOTE: They would have the option to reload with 4, 6, 8, or 10 more schools, to end up with 10, 12, 14, or even 16 teams.

They also have the option to reload with 2 schools to end up with 8. But assuming they lose their four most attractive schools, it probably doesn't matter much, because they are no longer a power conference and no combination of schools they might add would change that.

I doubt very seriously that the Big 12 would lose its power conference status (i.e., that the NCAA would take away the "autonomous conference" status away from Kansas, K State, Iowa St., Baylor, West Virginia, etc.).

The network would have a huge say in all of this. They've got a huge investment to protect, and aren't going to let go of it lightly. They could restock with other power conference-type schools, such as Cincy and Houston.

The NCAA has no say in which conferences are viewed as "power conferences". That's not the same thing as "autonomous conferences". I agree the NCAA wouldn't strip them of that. But I doubt the networks would continue to pay the remnants at anywhere near the level they currently enjoy.

Right - their income would have to be renegotiated with the network(s) - but the Big 12 could reload and remain a power (and autonomous) conference. They would still end up with considerably more than the AAC schools are getting - - perhaps they would get somewhere between $15 and $25 million per school per year. It would depend on which schools and how many schools they add.

(06-02-2020 04:49 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 10:03 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 12:19 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  I. Boise State:

I get the argument about Boise, but in reply, no other FB program in the country except BYU has had better TV ratings than Boise State.

(06-02-2020 01:28 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Those are pretty good arguments, but I think that Boise FB has had the top viewership numbers among non-P5 teams over the past 5 years.

This is the opposite of true.

2019
Boise: 5,175,000 regular season viewers home and away. Las Vegas Bowl 2,640,000
Memphis: 11,666,000 reg.season viewers, all in AAC-controlled games. Cotton Bowl 6,220,000
Cincinnati: 12,020,000 all season, 9,080,000 in AAC controlled games
Navy: 11, 163,000 all season, but over nine million in Army/ND (2020 ND game will be AAC inventory). Navy's bowl viewership bigger than Boise's at 3,330,000
Houston: 11,009,000. 5,569,000 in AAC controlled games bigger than Boise's total.
UCF: 9,432,000 reg season, 6,289,000 AAC controlled

Boise's Fiesta Bowl ranks third of six NY6 bowl games involving non-contract-bowl-conference teams in the CFP era.

Those data are informative - - but for 2019 only.

What I had written was that I thought that "Boise FB has had the top viewership numbers among non-P5 teams over the past 5 years," not in 2019.

Perhaps I should be more precise: I think that Boise FB may have had the top average viewership numbers among non-P5 teams over the past 5 years (not just 2019, but across 2015 to 2019).

You. Thought. Wrong.

I'll do one more year for you, because I have the data at my fingertips for 2018 as well.
But here is a good source going farther back. Seriously, do the work crunching the numbers yourself.
https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college...v-ratings/
And I say that from a "teach a man to fish" perspective -- you will get a much better appreciation for the data when you have rolled up your sleeves and gotten into it.

2018
Boise 6,004,000 reg season viewers. Only 4,566,000 in mwc controlled games
UCF 14,373,000 all AAC controlled games
Navy 10,882,000 although over 8 million A-N alone (ND@Navy games part of the AAC contract starting in 2020)
Memphis 8,803,000 reg season viewers, all AAC-controlled games
USF 7,453,000 reg season viewers, all AAC controlled games
Houston 7,287,000 reg season viewers, 6,208,000 w/o the @TCU game
Boise's bowl game garnered 1,445,000 viewers before getting called. Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, and USF all outdrew it. I'll mention UCF in the Fiesta - outdrew Boise's 2014 Fiesta, because Boise is not a better TV draw.

2019
Boise: 5,175,000 regular season viewers home and away. Las Vegas Bowl 2,640,000
Memphis: 11,666,000 reg.season viewers, all in AAC-controlled games. Cotton Bowl 6,220,000
Cincinnati: 12,020,000 all season, 9,080,000 in AAC controlled games
Navy: 11, 163,000 all season, but over nine million in Army/ND (2020 ND game will be AAC inventory). Navy's bowl viewership bigger than Boise's at 3,330,000
Houston: 11,009,000. 5,569,000 in AAC controlled games bigger than Boise's total.
UCF: 9,432,000 reg season, 6,289,000 AAC controlled

Again - you really should get into the numbers at sportsmediawatch yourself.

Here is a CONFERENCE-centric discussion of the bigger numbers, greater than a million viewers. You can drill down into the thread for Boise specifically, but the conference level view from '15-'18:
'15-'18 total games over 3 million viewers: AAC 26, mwc 4, MAC 3
'15-'18 total games over 2 million viewers: AAC 49, CUSA 6, MAC 10, mwc 12, SBC 2
'15-'18 total games over 1 million viewers: AAC 79, CUSA 29, MAC 26, mwc 38, SBC 6

'15-'18 non-bowl games over 3 million viewers: AAC 19. MAC 2
'15-'18 non-bowl games over 2 million viewers: AAC 33, CUSA 3, MAC 1, mwc 5
'15-'18 non-bowl games over 1 million viewers: AAC 54, CUSA 6, MAC 10, mwc 17, SBC 2

'15-'18 conference controlled games over 3 million viewers: AAC 11, G4s 0
'15-'18 conference controlled games over 2 million viewers: AAC 20, mwc 1
'15-'18 conference controlled games over 1 million viewers: AAC 35, CUSA 1, MAC 2, mwc 5

'15-'18 intra-conference games over 3 million viewers: AAC 7, G4s 0
'15-'18 intra-conference games over 2 million viewers: AAC 11, G4s 0
'15-'18 intra-conference games over 1 million viewers: AAC 13, MAC 2 (CCGs), mwc 3 (2 reg season, 1 CCG)
Those million-plus viewer AAC vs AAC games included ten of the twelve teams.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-867843.html

(06-02-2020 05:18 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:10 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:02 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 10:54 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-01-2020 05:08 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  If the Big 12 were to lose 4 teams, which teams would the conference reload with?

.

NOTE: They would have the option to reload with 4, 6, 8, or 10 more schools, to end up with 10, 12, 14, or even 16 teams.

They also have the option to reload with 2 schools to end up with 8. But assuming they lose their four most attractive schools, it probably doesn't matter much, because they are no longer a power conference and no combination of schools they might add would change that.

I doubt very seriously that the Big 12 would lose its power conference status (i.e., that the NCAA would take away the "autonomous conference" status away from Kansas, K State, Iowa St., Baylor, West Virginia, etc.).

The network would have a huge say in all of this. They've got a huge investment to protect, and aren't going to let go of it lightly. They could restock with other power conference-type schools, such as Cincy and Houston.

The NCAA has no say in which conferences are viewed as "power conferences". That's not the same thing as "autonomous conferences". I agree the NCAA wouldn't strip them of that. But I doubt the networks would continue to pay the remnants at anywhere near the level they currently enjoy.

Right - their income would have to be renegotiated with the network(s) - but the Big 12 could reload and remain a power (and autonomous) conference. They would still end up with considerably more than the AAC schools are getting - - perhaps they would get somewhere between $15 and $25 million per school per year. It would depend on which schools and how many schools they add.

If Texas and Oklahoma are among the leavers, the remnant Big 12 would remain a Power conference until 2025, when the CFP deal expires, because it would be too legally messy for the other Power conferences to oust them before then. But their TV deal would immediately plunge to a level far closer to what the AAC is currently getting, maybe a few million a year more, and then when the CFP contract is renegotiated, they would be removed from the Power ranks just as the Big East/AAC was when the BCS deal expired.

And that's true no matter who is recruited from the AAC or MW to replace them.

(06-02-2020 05:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 09:16 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I can't say, because it would depend on who the Big 12 loses. Losing Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas is a lot different from losing Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State, and Kansas State.

In what scenario would the Big 12 lose "Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State, and Kansas State" and keep "Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas"? Any Big 12 loses scenario that involves them losing teams will involve them losing Texas, Oklahoma, or both. There is no scenario for them losing any teams and keeping Texas and Oklahoma.

There isn't? Wow, I'm glad we have someone around here with a crystal ball, LOL.

Funny, in the past decade, the Big 12 managed to lose at least four schools - none of which were Texas or Oklahoma. But now that can't possibly happen again? Go figure.

Good point. There have been quite a few reports that many/most of the Big 12 members don't like the way that U. Texas has thrown their weight around through the years.

(06-02-2020 05:27 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 09:16 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 08:01 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I can't say, because it would depend on who the Big 12 loses. Losing Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas is a lot different from losing Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State, and Kansas State.

In what scenario would the Big 12 lose "Texas Tech, TCU, Iowa State, and Kansas State" and keep "Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas"? Any Big 12 loses scenario that involves them losing teams will involve them losing Texas, Oklahoma, or both. There is no scenario for them losing any teams and keeping Texas and Oklahoma.

There isn't? Wow, I'm glad we have someone around here with a crystal ball, LOL.

Funny, in the past decade, the Big 12 managed to lose at least four schools - none of which were Texas or Oklahoma. But now that can't possibly happen again? Go figure.

Good point. There have been quite a few reports that many/most of the Big 12 members don't like the way that U. Texas has thrown their weight around through the years.

Really? Who would that be? Nebraska and Aggys who claim UT was holding them back for years? Or maybe Baylor thinking UT told Texas Monthly that there was an ongoing rape cover up scandal?
I get it, it was because Texas was the one to start flirting with the PAC back in 2011, right? Not Mizzu, it was UT.

(06-02-2020 05:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:18 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:10 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:02 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 10:54 AM)ken d Wrote:  They also have the option to reload with 2 schools to end up with 8. But assuming they lose their four most attractive schools, it probably doesn't matter much, because they are no longer a power conference and no combination of schools they might add would change that.

I doubt very seriously that the Big 12 would lose its power conference status (i.e., that the NCAA would take away the "autonomous conference" status away from Kansas, K State, Iowa St., Baylor, West Virginia, etc.).

The network would have a huge say in all of this. They've got a huge investment to protect, and aren't going to let go of it lightly. They could restock with other power conference-type schools, such as Cincy and Houston.

The NCAA has no say in which conferences are viewed as "power conferences". That's not the same thing as "autonomous conferences". I agree the NCAA wouldn't strip them of that. But I doubt the networks would continue to pay the remnants at anywhere near the level they currently enjoy.

Right - their income would have to be renegotiated with the network(s) - but the Big 12 could reload and remain a power (and autonomous) conference. They would still end up with considerably more than the AAC schools are getting - - perhaps they would get somewhere between $15 and $25 million per school per year. It would depend on which schools and how many schools they add.

If Texas and Oklahoma are among the leavers, the remnant Big 12 would remain a Power conference until 2025, when the CFP deal expires, because it would be too legally messy for the other Power conferences to oust them before then. But their TV deal would immediately plunge to a level far closer to what the AAC is currently getting, maybe a few million a year more, and then when the CFP contract is renegotiated, they would be removed from the Power ranks just as the Big East/AAC was when the BCS deal expired.

And that's true no matter who is recruited from the AAC or MW to replace them.

That scenario seems rather drastic. I don't think it would be nearly that bad for the remnants. Yes, they would be paid less for broadcasting rights, but there could be all kinds of lawsuits against the NCAA if they tried to strip them of their autonomous conference status.

So may I ask: Is that just conjecture/speculation on your part, or did you write that based on some kind of inside information that you might have (e.g., from the broadcasters, conference executives, legal firms involved in such matters, governing authorities, or the NCAA)?

(06-02-2020 05:23 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  2018
Boise 6,004,000 reg season viewers. Only 4,566,000 in mwc controlled games
UCF 14,373,000 all AAC controlled games
Navy 10,882,000 although over 8 million A-N alone (ND@Navy games part of the AAC contract starting in 2020)
Memphis 8,803,000 reg season viewers, all AAC-controlled games
USF 7,453,000 reg season viewers, all AAC controlled games
Houston 7,287,000 reg season viewers, 6,208,000 w/o the @TCU game
Boise's bowl game garnered 1,445,000 viewers before getting called. Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF, Houston, and USF all outdrew it. I'll mention UCF in the Fiesta - outdrew Boise's 2014 Fiesta, because Boise is not a better TV draw.

2019
Boise: 5,175,000 regular season viewers home and away. Las Vegas Bowl 2,640,000
Memphis: 11,666,000 reg.season viewers, all in AAC-controlled games. Cotton Bowl 6,220,000
Cincinnati: 12,020,000 all season, 9,080,000 in AAC controlled games
Navy: 11, 163,000 all season, but over nine million in Army/ND (2020 ND game will be AAC inventory). Navy's bowl viewership bigger than Boise's at 3,330,000
Houston: 11,009,000. 5,569,000 in AAC controlled games bigger than Boise's total.
UCF: 9,432,000 reg season, 6,289,000 AAC controlled

Very interesting findings. It turns out that Boise State FB's viewership numbers aren't the highest among non-P5 schools.

However, Boise State's viewership numbers have certainly been quite respectful (probably among the top 10 non-P5 FB schools), and apparently better than those for most of the non-P5 schools (the C-USA, Sun Belt, and MAC schools, the rest of the MWC schools, and the rest of the AAC schools). On the other hand, it looks like BYU has gotten better viewership numbers than Boise State has gotten.

In summary, it looks like the top non-P5 viewership schools over the past 5 years have included:

AAC: Navy, Memphis, Cincy, UCF, Houston, possibly USF

MWC: Boise St.

Independents: BYU

The Big 12 looked at 11 teams. They thought about SDSU and UNLV but didn't include them. Boise and Memphis didn't get that much consideration.

(06-02-2020 07:09 PM)bullet Wrote:  The Big 12 looked at 11 teams. They thought about SDSU and UNLV but didn't include them. Boise and Memphis didn't get that much consideration.

Yes, but that was a few years ago. Things may have changed since then.

A lot of folks on these message board threads do think there will be some P5 level realignment by 2026. Maybe they're right.

If Texas and Oklahoma are among the 4 taken (and honestly I have a hard time thinking that anyone would bother raiding the Big 12 without involving those two institutions) then I have a hard time seeing the Big 12 keeping its special position as an P5 conference after the current CFP contract runs out. If the Big 12 cannot show that it is likely to keep it then BYU is right out. BYU will only join a conference if it can at least pretend (and that it can sell to anyone that cares) that it is in a similar position as Utah. If the Big 12 has a chance to not be considered a power conference after the next contract I do not see them joining.

Who they choose will depend on how much denial the remaining schools are in and there are a lot of choices that being said I think they will primarily steal from the AAC because if the MWC believe that the remaining Big 12 will not keep that power label they may be less enticed to leave a conference that has most of the institutions that they care about while the institutions in the AAC care little for that sort of thing.

(06-02-2020 07:01 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  Very interesting findings. It turns out that Boise State FB's viewership numbers aren't the highest among non-P5 schools.

However, Boise State's viewership numbers have certainly been quite respectful (probably among the top 10 non-P5 FB schools), and apparently better than those for most of the non-P5 schools (the C-USA, Sun Belt, and MAC schools, the rest of the MWC schools, and the rest of the AAC schools). On the other hand, it looks like BYU has gotten better viewership numbers than Boise State has gotten.

In summary, it looks like the top non-P5 viewership schools over the past 5 years have included:

AAC: Navy, Memphis, Cincy, UCF, Houston, possibly USF

MWC: Boise St.

Independents: BYU

Don't forget Army.
While home games on CBSSN aren't rated, obviously the Army Navy game is big, but also they still have the brand recognition to get home-and-home series against the bluebloods (Oklahoma is visiting Michie this year, but we won't see ratings if it stays on CBSSN) and away games will get a better network or timeslot: Army at Michigan got OTA Fox for 4.72 million viewers.

Boise probably/possibly gets into the top ten of non autonomy teams, though, sure.

(06-02-2020 08:04 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  If Texas and Oklahoma are among the 4 taken (and honestly I have a hard time thinking that anyone would bother raiding the Big 12 without involving those two institutions) then I have a hard time seeing the Big 12 keeping its special position as an P5 conference after the current CFP contract runs out. If the Big 12 cannot show that it is likely to keep it then BYU is right out. BYU will only join a conference if it can at least pretend (and that it can sell to anyone that cares) that it is in a similar position as Utah. If the Big 12 has a chance to not be considered a power conference after the next contract I do not see them joining.

1) It's possible that 1 or 2 Big 12 schools might seek membership in another P5 conference, the way Nebraska and Colorado did. Kansas or Iowa State could pursue membership in the Big-10 or Baylor seeking to join the SEC, for example.

2) It wouldn't be easy to strip the remaining members of the Big 12 of their power conference status, unless they were to dissolve the conference - - which they would have no reason to do.

--The NCAA would be very unlikely to punish the remaining Big 12 schools by stripping them of their status as an autonomous conference, if they were to replace Texas and Oklahoma with, for example, Cincy and Houston. If they tried to, they would have to go through lengthy litigation in the courts, and they might well lose their case.

--ESPN would be very unlikely to stop treating the realigned Big 12 as a power conference. They have a substantial investment in the conference and would not want to lose it. They would negotiate a downward reduction in their payments to the conference (they might even cut their payments to the Big 12 by 30 to 50%), but the Big 12 would still maintain its status as a power conference.

--Even if ESPN were to insist on cutting payments to the Big 12 more than 50%, the Big 12 could still remain a power conference, since they would preserve their status as an "autonomous conference," and it would be in no one's vested interest to strip them of their "power conference" status.

--ESPN would have to be careful not to try to cut the payments too much, because if they did, other networks would probably make them a better offer, assuming that the conference were to reload with other power schools, of which there are several (BYU, Cincy, Houston, etc).

(06-02-2020 05:08 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 04:31 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 04:17 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 04:13 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 12:45 PM)whittx Wrote:  UCF, Memphis, Cincy, and Houston. Add Colorado State and USF if you go to 12.

This is the most likely scenario, with usf and Memphis interchangeable imo. usf has better academics but Memphis has a great basketball program, better fanbase, bigger brand, and closer location.

That, and USF doesn't give you anything you don't already get with UCF.

Yes, we’re better or the same in every category, except usf has a different market than us. (Although UCF has considerable influence in Tampa as well, so that could be a moot point).

Well except we're a better school than you. And USF has thousands of alumni in Orlando as well.

Difference between academics is minimal, not enough to really make a difference. Also there were more UCF fans than usf fans at our game in Tampa in 2018. UCF has the ability to gain a major foothold in both markets, I don’t think usf could gain a major foothold in Orlando.

(06-02-2020 08:36 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 08:04 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  If Texas and Oklahoma are among the 4 taken (and honestly I have a hard time thinking that anyone would bother raiding the Big 12 without involving those two institutions) then I have a hard time seeing the Big 12 keeping its special position as an P5 conference after the current CFP contract runs out. If the Big 12 cannot show that it is likely to keep it then BYU is right out. BYU will only join a conference if it can at least pretend (and that it can sell to anyone that cares) that it is in a similar position as Utah. If the Big 12 has a chance to not be considered a power conference after the next contract I do not see them joining.

1) It's possible that 1 or 2 Big 12 schools might seek membership in another P5 conference, the way Nebraska and Colorado did. Kansas or Iowa State could pursue membership in the Big-10 or Baylor seeking to join the SEC, for example.

2) It wouldn't be easy to strip the remaining members of the Big 12 of their power conference status, unless they were to dissolve the conference - - which they would have no reason to do.

--The NCAA would be very unlikely to punish the remaining Big 12 schools by stripping them of their status as an autonomous conference, if they were to replace Texas and Oklahoma with, for example, Cincy and Houston. If they tried to, they would have to go through lengthy litigation in the courts, and they might well lose their case.

--ESPN would be very unlikely to stop treating the realigned Big 12 as a power conference. They have a substantial investment in the conference and would not want to lose it. They would negotiate a downward reduction in their payments to the conference (they might even cut their payments to the Big 12 by 30 to 50%), but the Big 12 would still maintain its status as a power conference.

--Even if ESPN were to insist on cutting payments to the Big 12 more than 50%, the Big 12 could still remain a power conference, since they would preserve their status as an "autonomous conference," and it would be in no one's vested interest to strip them of their "power conference" status.

--ESPN would have to be careful not to try to cut the payments too much, because if they did, other networks would probably make them a better offer, assuming that the conference were to reload with other power schools, of which there are several (BYU, Cincy, Houston, etc).

Baylor to the SEC and Iowa State to the Big 10?? Jed you really don’t have any idea what you’re talking about, do you?

(06-02-2020 08:36 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 08:04 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  If Texas and Oklahoma are among the 4 taken (and honestly I have a hard time thinking that anyone would bother raiding the Big 12 without involving those two institutions) then I have a hard time seeing the Big 12 keeping its special position as an P5 conference after the current CFP contract runs out. If the Big 12 cannot show that it is likely to keep it then BYU is right out. BYU will only join a conference if it can at least pretend (and that it can sell to anyone that cares) that it is in a similar position as Utah. If the Big 12 has a chance to not be considered a power conference after the next contract I do not see them joining.

1) It's possible that 1 or 2 Big 12 schools might seek membership in another P5 conference, the way Nebraska and Colorado did. Kansas or Iowa State could pursue membership in the Big-10 or Baylor seeking to join the SEC, for example.

2) It wouldn't be easy to strip the remaining members of the Big 12 of their power conference status, unless they were to dissolve the conference - - which they would have no reason to do.

--The NCAA would be very unlikely to punish the remaining Big 12 schools by stripping them of their status as an autonomous conference, if they were to replace Texas and Oklahoma with, for example, Cincy and Houston. If they tried to, they would have to go through lengthy litigation in the courts, and they might well lose their case.

--ESPN would be very unlikely to stop treating the realigned Big 12 as a power conference. They have a substantial investment in the conference and would not want to lose it. They would negotiate a downward reduction in their payments to the conference (they might even cut their payments to the Big 12 by 30 to 50%), but the Big 12 would still maintain its status as a power conference.

--Even if ESPN were to insist on cutting payments to the Big 12 more than 50%, the Big 12 could still remain a power conference, since they would preserve their status as an "autonomous conference," and it would be in no one's vested interest to strip them of their "power conference" status.

--ESPN would have to be careful not to try to cut the payments too much, because if they did, other networks would probably make them a better offer, assuming that the conference were to reload with other power schools, of which there are several (BYU, Cincy, Houston, etc).

1. Iowa State would not be taken by the Big 10 and that is true for most of the Big 12 schools. Kansas would likely be one of the four taken.

2. It would be easy and we already have precedent which was the Big East. The Big East lost enough of the important schools that the rest of the power conferences cared about and in the next contract they were booted out of the club. Notice I did say in the next contract. You can contend that perhaps whatever schools are left might be allowed to stay in the power structure but it is precedent that if you lose enough the power schools will kick you out.

3. The NCAA does not strip anyone remember the NCAA allows the power conferences to essentially make the rules for FBS football so it will be the group of power conferences that may omit the Big 12 when the next contract. Having Cincy and Houston did not allow the Big East to keep its power status so I do not feel they would be the reason whether the Big 12 would keep its status. Its status would be determined by the remaining original Big 12 schools much more than what they bring in.

4. I have a lot of confidence that if the Big 12 lost 4 schools and they include Oklahoma and Texas that ESPN can completely renegotiate the contract to what they need it to be and remember they do not need to worry about their investment until the next CFP contract is decided. ESPN dumped the Big East back in the day and they will dump anyone else they find does not meet their expectations (sorry that it is such a broken record but it is the closest recent example).

5. Houston, Cincy, BYU, and the rest you mention are not "power" schools. A school that has power would have no need to join the Big 12 in that sort of moment of weakness. If those schools were truly powerful then a conference like the AAC would be a power conference and they are not.

Part of the trickiness of this is that the original premise did not specify who was taken and it can make a big difference. For instance while I do not see any way that 4 schools leave the Big 12 without having Texas and Oklahoma in the mix (since they are 2 of the very few schools that the other conferences would bother taking alone or potentially with friends the rest not so much) if 4 schools left the Big 12 but Texas and Oklahoma stayed well the Big 12 would still be seen as a power conference. As another example schools like Oklahoma State, Kansas State, or Texas Tech would likely not be offered on their own but it is possible they would be taken due to outside factors to get the schools that are actually desired.

(06-02-2020 11:50 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  ESPN dumped the Big East back in the day and they will dump anyone else they find does not meet their expectations...

Yes, but they only did that because only 5 of the 8 Big East FB teams (WVa, Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, and Rutgers) were jumping ship. The Big East was extremely vulnerable because they were a pitifully small conference, with only 8 teams at the time, and none of the original Big East members would have remained.

What we're talking about here is different - - The Big 12, with 10 members would be able to rebuild much more easily with a core of 6 teams, including four original (1997) members.

Moreover, the situation today is entirely different. There was no Power 5 when the Big East was dissolved, so ESPN didn't dump an official power conference - - they simply elected not to take the steps necessary to elevate the fragmented Big East/AAC to the status of a power conference.

In the case of the Big 12, since it is a power conference, there is no precedent for disempowering a power conference.

Sure, ESPN could let CBS/Fox pick up the rights to broadcast Big 12 games, but ESPN would not have the wherewithal or the right or the authority to take away the power conference status of the Big 12.

Obviously, if the Big 12 were to completely fragment, with no original teams remaining, it's possible that they could go out of existence, but if they reload with current or former power level schools, they will go on as the Big 12 conference and will continue to be an autonomous/power conference - - even if their broadcasting revenue is cut in half.

So the two situations are like apples and oranges. The dissolution of the Big East FB conference has no bearing on what would happen if the Big 12 were to lose 4 schools by 2026.

(06-02-2020 11:50 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  ...it is precedent that if you lose enough the power schools will kick you out...

That's not correct. There is no precedent of a power conference or a group of power schools ever kicking multiple schools out of a power conference.

The only examples that can be referred to are very different from what would happen if the Big 12 remnants were to reload with 4 or 6 power quality and former power conference schools (e.g., Cincy, Houston, SMU, USF).

Example #1: The implosion of the Big East in 2012 and 2013

When the Big East fell apart, no schools were kicked out. Instead, five of the eight Big East schools in 2011 departed (to the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 conferences) before the 2014 FB season began.

Example #2: The implosion of the SWC in 1996-1997.

When the old Southwest Conference (SWC) fell apart, no schools were kicked out. Instead, four (Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech) of the eight SWC schools switched to the Big 12 conference before the 1997 FB season began.

The one thing that these two cases have in common is that they were both very vulnerable to implosion, because each conference only had eight member schools. They both might have been able to reload and carry on as power quality conferences if they had a remaining core of 6, rather than only 3 or 4 schools. With a remaining core of 6 schools, the Big 12 remnants would be much more likely to reload and carry on as a power conference.

3. Example #3: The Southern Conference & the formation of the SEC in 1933:

In 1933, twelve of the original members of the original Southern Conference split off to form the SEC. No Southern Conference members were kicked out. Eight of them (Clemson, UNC, NC State, Maryland, South Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, and UVa) left the Southern Conference to form the ACC in 1953.

(06-02-2020 05:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  If Texas and Oklahoma are among the leavers, the remnant Big 12 would remain a Power conference until 2025, when the CFP deal expires, because it would be too legally messy for the other Power conferences to oust them before then. But their TV deal would immediately plunge to a level far closer to what the AAC is currently getting, maybe a few million a year more, and then when the CFP contract is renegotiated, they would be removed from the Power ranks just as the Big East/AAC was when the BCS deal expired.

And that's true no matter who is recruited from the AAC or MW to replace them.

I think you’re probably right. Although, I think the following would command far more than a few million more than the AAC. I’m also not so sure they’d be totally ousted from the power structure altogether; that’s a legitimate basketball power conference.

BYU*
Iowa St.
Kansas
K State
Oklahoma St.
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Houston*
West Virginia

If I were making the decisions, I’d think long and hard about the direction of the conference from this point on and what the identity would be. Personally, I’d go west, young man. BYU for Oklahoma and Houston for Texas. Just hope both can find some retro success.

At that point, if adding some combination of Colorado St., SMU, Cincinnati, and UCF make more money for each school, then do it. I doubt it though.

I can’t see four schools leaving. I can see either more or less than that number. Like, you may lose OU and OSU, but keep the money good for Texas, and they may stay. Kansas would run to the exits in most of the scenarios I could think of.

I would bet that even losing half or less of the current conference, no matter which five are left, can be rebuilt and retained as the new low major. Houston and Cincy are top replacements. BYU’s candidacy probably hinges on whether Iowa State loses its pull in blocking the Cougars.

(06-02-2020 06:46 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:25 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:18 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:10 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(06-02-2020 05:02 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  I doubt very seriously that the Big 12 would lose its power conference status (i.e., that the NCAA would take away the "autonomous conference" status away from Kansas, K State, Iowa St., Baylor, West Virginia, etc.).

The network would have a huge say in all of this. They've got a huge investment to protect, and aren't going to let go of it lightly. They could restock with other power conference-type schools, such as Cincy and Houston.

The NCAA has no say in which conferences are viewed as "power conferences". That's not the same thing as "autonomous conferences". I agree the NCAA wouldn't strip them of that. But I doubt the networks would continue to pay the remnants at anywhere near the level they currently enjoy.

Right - their income would have to be renegotiated with the network(s) - but the Big 12 could reload and remain a power (and autonomous) conference. They would still end up with considerably more than the AAC schools are getting - - perhaps they would get somewhere between $15 and $25 million per school per year. It would depend on which schools and how many schools they add.

If Texas and Oklahoma are among the leavers, the remnant Big 12 would remain a Power conference until 2025, when the CFP deal expires, because it would be too legally messy for the other Power conferences to oust them before then. But their TV deal would immediately plunge to a level far closer to what the AAC is currently getting, maybe a few million a year more, and then when the CFP contract is renegotiated, they would be removed from the Power ranks just as the Big East/AAC was when the BCS deal expired.

And that's true no matter who is recruited from the AAC or MW to replace them.

That scenario seems rather drastic. I don't think it would be nearly that bad for the remnants. Yes, they would be paid less for broadcasting rights, but there could be all kinds of lawsuits against the NCAA if they tried to strip them of their autonomous conference status.

So may I ask: Is that just conjecture/speculation on your part, or did you write that based on some kind of inside information that you might have (e.g., from the broadcasters, conference executives, legal firms involved in such matters, governing authorities, or the NCAA)?

FWIW, I did not comment on whether the remnant Big 12 would lose their NCAA Autonomous status. They may very well retain that, I don't know the bylaws, that's why i didn't mention that.

But that would not matter in terms of Power status, which is related to media deals and to status within the CFP. IMO - and we are all voicing opinions here, you as well - it seems pretty clear that the remnant Big 12 would not survive as a Power-level partner in the CFP or whatever other arrangement is arrived at in 2025. There's no way that conferences like the SEC and B1G would share football post-season revenue equally with a conference whose top football brand names would be schools like TCU, Texas Tech, UCF, and Memphis, for example.