(06-02-2020 05:23 PM)Thiefery Wrote: Thing is, nobody is clamoring for a PAC network. And sure the PAC can stay pat too but the Big 12 just with UT and ou alone will command bigger money in it's tier 1 and 2 deals during the next round of negotiations.
I really don't understand how some of you PAC fans can really look down on the Big12. Is it because of academics? Why hasn't that prestige help out AZ or Colorado who are still operating in the red? Think if the Big 12 was actually proactive (asking a lot from PAC buddy Bowlsby here) and asked both AZ schools to come on board, would they quickly say no because of academic prestige? I mean UT, ISU, and KU are AAU schools no?
It's still atleast a year and a half too soon to see how this will all play out but I think after this pandemic, some of the schools out west may start looking out for it's best interests, same as some of the Big 12 schools too. But I doubt they let the academic prestige interfere with the millions of dollars at stake for SPORTS.
Texas has fine academic, ranks right in there with Washington, very close to the California schools. Oklahoma and Kansas match P12 levels as well, fit nicely with all the ones with "State" in their name. But the rest are open admission schools. Baylor and TCU are very selective, like BYU, but also are not research schools and have religious affiliation making them non starters.
The reality of left coast elitism, or as it calls itself "progressive." I post based on that reality, although I oppose it's implementation which leads to a denial of 30,000 California kids access to the UC system, hitting Hispanics especially hard. It is what it is.
The P12 detractors assume the P12 will limp along with $32m or $33m in distributions. But they will break out of that in the next round. It doesn't matter if Apple gets the contract (probably not) as they will help force the bidding up. The West is by far the fastest growing section of the country, although only 20% of it. There is too much value there not to see a good sized bump.
The B12 problem is what they are besides Texas and Oklahoma. There is plenty of value for the 10 schools if those two stay. Texas has the LHN and will average almost $18m per year from 2025-31 (back end of the 3% escalator). So even if the B1G and SEC start distributing $65-70m in the next contracts, all the B12 needs is a 20% bump to the $40m range (TV only not other distributions) for Texas to feel comfortable, more than capable staying on even terms with the SEC and B1G. But for Oklahoma, who take in $12m less with SoonerTV, that is far too large a gap.
The B12 will be in a position of going to the little-8 and saying "hey can you guys all take $2.5m less, so that Texas and Oklahoma can keep pace with B1G and SEC revenues". While that is probably the smart move, for those schools to accept only a 10% raise so that they keep Oklahoma, that is hard to swallow. It also means their distributions will likely be less than the Pac-12. If the West is small, the Plain states north of Texas contain a lot of empty. That's the financial reality. Texas is fine regardless. Oklahoma will be a challenge to keep.
Since any P12 school coming to the B12 would get little-8 level distribution, it's not worth it. Same the other way. For all the board posts about one pilfering the other, the dollar math doesn't work, and neither does the travel. A merger along the lines of the original Pac-16 might work if Larry Scott is tossed and new commissioner appointed. But I don't know that Texas would want to travel west to the four corner schools in most sports, let alone a trip or two in every sport to the Pacific Coast. The money would not be enough better in a combined conference to consider it. So bottom line, each conference has to figure out life in their current confines.
For those in the East it's 600 miles to go from KU to CU, 900 miles to go from UT to UofA. Those are the closet schools. Florida State is closer by 25 miles to Austin. Fully 10 SEC schools are closer to Texas in miles than the nearest P12 school. And going east is much better on student athletes since you gain an hour coming home, rather than lose one or two going west. These are reasons a P12-B12 interaction wont work.