https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...m-the-fbs/

Thought this article was interesting, considering the discussions in recent weeks about a potential (and official) split of the P5 and G5. Lots of discussion points to be had in here with the regards to the look of what college athletics look like in the future, alignment-wise.

JRsec wrote that article, right?

The problem the P5 can not do this on their own. Some of their sports will not survive. PAC 12 do have affiliates that are not P5 schools.

(05-27-2020 01:48 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  JRsec wrote that article, right?

When you sit and look at this, once you get past the obvious teams you would add to a Power D1 scenario (P5 + 35 all sport schools including 15 football schools) you struggle to find the last 5 or so schools. In my scenario, I wound up with College of Charleston and Vermont as my last 2 non fb schools and Buffalo and ODU as my last 2 all sport schools (since I took UMass as a non-fb school and refused the UConn football program when I included the Big East as non-fb schools)

Reading this article Dodd concludes a group of 90-100 schools in the breakaway, and specifically mentions the AAC schools as the leaders to come with the autonomy schools.

Can we find a way to make the NCAA death a big public spectacle? I have a lot of schadenfreude I need to get out over the NCAA's death. The more agonizing, humiliating, and public the spectacle of the NCAA's death the more I'll enjoy it.

(05-27-2020 02:47 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Reading this article Dodd concludes a group of 90-100 schools in the breakaway, and specifically mentions the AAC schools as the leaders to come with the autonomy schools.

Tulane finna go back to 3-9 averages if they lose all of the easy games. With that said, someone has to do it and the alternatives are worse.

Membership for a breakaway organization would be easy. The P5 invite:

AAC
MWC
Big East

Plus some select programs that they’d make those 3 lucky conferences take on as the cost of admission. Schools like:

BYU
Gonzaga
Dayton
VCU

(05-27-2020 02:18 PM)whittx Wrote:  

(05-27-2020 01:48 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  JRsec wrote that article, right?

When you sit and look at this, once you get past the obvious teams you would add to a Power D1 scenario (P5 + 35 all sport schools including 15 football schools) you struggle to find the last 5 or so schools. In my scenario, I wound up with College of Charleston and Vermont as my last 2 non fb schools and Buffalo and ODU as my last 2 all sport schools (since I took UMass as a non-fb school and refused the UConn football program when I included the Big East as non-fb schools)

Interesting. My 100-school list wouldn't be as difficult to make. Perhaps, I'm not looking at this correctly. The below is just a quick stab at this:

Playing by your rules: 100 schools, P5 plus 35 (15 with football)

Power 5 (65 schools)

Other (35 schools - including 15 football programs)
Big East - 11 schools (no football)
AAC - 11 schools (9 football programs; yes Wichita St / no Navy)
MWC - 5 schools (5 football programs; only Hawaii, San Diego St, Fresno St, Boise St, Colorado St)
BYU (football)
Remaining 7: Dayton, Saint Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Gonzaga, St. Mary's

(05-27-2020 02:49 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Can we find a way to make the NCAA death a big public spectacle? I have a lot of schadenfreude I need to get out over the NCAA's death. The more agonizing, humiliating, and public the spectacle of the NCAA's death the more I'll enjoy it.

When those mother's lose their control over us and die as a bureaucracy we'll roll Toomer's Corner together and I'll take you to Acre or Bow and Arrow for dinner. If the Virus is still a thing I'll make one of my specialties at the house. And BTW I can provide the TP! Then maybe the next time you will be in Auburn will be the day after a Wreck Tech parade!

One problem with a "breakaway" is leadership. Who will lead it?

The leading college presidents? Please. They have much bigger fish to fry at the moment.

The leading college ADs? Any meeting of the ADs will be crashed by the NCAA leadership.

The P5 commissioners? Maybe. That's a small enough group that they could lead this. But it's really tricky. Any decisions they agree on effectively will have to be ratified by the presidents of the leading schools - because you know darn well that the Presidents of Texas, Ohio State, USC, UNC, etc all view their commissioners as their employee, not their boss.

That makes it a mess. Any objections will have to be settled by 5 powerless commissioners acting as intermediaries for the decision makers. If you've ever negotiated to buy a house, imagine that instead of two parties having two intermediaries, you have 20-30 important parties with 5 intermediaries about topics that might violate labor laws or anti-monopoly laws. Again, the Presidents don't have the time to do this by themselves... they're busy plugging budget gaps of hundreds of millions of dollars and don't want to risk the bad publicity that could come from leading this crusade.

(05-27-2020 02:56 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(05-27-2020 02:18 PM)whittx Wrote:  

(05-27-2020 01:48 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  JRsec wrote that article, right?

When you sit and look at this, once you get past the obvious teams you would add to a Power D1 scenario (P5 + 35 all sport schools including 15 football schools) you struggle to find the last 5 or so schools. In my scenario, I wound up with College of Charleston and Vermont as my last 2 non fb schools and Buffalo and ODU as my last 2 all sport schools (since I took UMass as a non-fb school and refused the UConn football program when I included the Big East as non-fb schools)

Interesting. My 100-school list wouldn't be as difficult to make. Perhaps, I'm not looking at this correctly. The below is just a quick stab at this:

Playing by your rules: 100 schools, P5 plus 35 (15 with football)

Power 5 (65 schools)

Other (35 schools - including 15 football programs)
Big East - 11 schools (no football)
AAC - 11 schools (9 football programs; yes Wichita St / no Navy)
MWC - 5 schools (5 football programs; only Hawaii, San Diego St, Fresno St, Boise St, Colorado St)
BYU (football)
Remaining 7: Dayton, Saint Louis, VCU, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Gonzaga, St. Mary's

I dumped Navy along with Tulane, East Carolina, Tulsa from The American, added UNLV instead of Hawaii because of the travel, facilities, and not wanting to keep out a basketball National Champion. I Added College of Charleston instead of Rhode Island, Buffalo because they have improved their athletics enough to include a flagship school from one of the 5 biggest states and the only AAU school playing FBS football that wasn't here , Old Dominion because of market (Hampton Roads) and basketball tradition, Davidson instead of St. Louis, and Vermont (although, on second thought, Rhode Island would be a better option). I wanted 80 football programs and 100 schools as well

(05-27-2020 02:47 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  Reading this article Dodd concludes a group of 90-100 schools in the breakaway, and specifically mentions the AAC schools as the leaders to come with the autonomy schools.

Thought that was very interesting as well.

So, the P5 would "break away" only to invite another 25-35 schools to join them; thus, in essence, the new D1-A just kicks out the bottom 35 teams? Assuming the P5 bring along the AAC in its entirety, that brings you up to 76 teams; if Navy joins, you'd have to assume Army and Air Force are in as well (although I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see all three choose to remain out either). BYU would be in, as would San Diego State and a quite a few Mountain West programs. However, if the number is really just to cut down 35 programs, wouldn't be easier to just say that the Sun Belt, Conference USA and the MAC are each left out (34 teams), along with a few of the independents?

Something seems off about that prediction. If the P5 will break away, they might still play teams outside their coalition, but I don't think the outside teams will be part of the group. Realignment has steadily and consistently been about consolidation and keeping more of the revenues to the top groupings.

Army, Navy and Air Force are question marks...I think they can survive at this level. But do they want to make this commitment?

The service academies do not follow normal recruiting rules. They survive by offering 50-60 mostly D2, FCS and low G5 officer candidates an appointment. They have a robust JV program and also utilize a prep school to red shirt one extra year those with academic work to accomplish.

(05-27-2020 01:48 PM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  JRsec wrote that article, right?

No, Dodd tossed more bones than I would have. Look, it's just what I hear and when you break down the numbers and look at the legal rulings it is inevitable. By the way, Thompson is an Auburn alum and the company is not readily recognized, but they have a most impressive client list including Coca-Cola and Disney, inclusive of ESPN. He's the one who knew the most about the SEC's new T1 contract and has some really interesting things to say about details yet to come to light.

The guy is definitely well positioned to know what he's talking about.

If the breakaway happens, and I believe it will but not because of the Virus but because of all of the basketball revenue left on the table, and the players rights issues, then it will include, IMO, most of the P5 schools with some bowing out due to the cost and and their unwillingness to comply with less of an amateur status and to enter into an ever growing arms race for the athletes.

So don't think 65 P5 schools, but rather 54 to 60 P5 schools. And don't think all AAC schools but rather 4 to 10 of the top G5 programs inclusive of B.Y.U. in that breakaway. Why?

Networks have been talking for a couple of years about what a self contained upper tier would be worth in per school payouts and it is in the 110-120 million range for football but they don't want dud games. So top G5's and the strongest P5's making up that field is much more likely.

So what Dodd doesn't talk as much about is how we get to that 90 to 100 range without damaging the payouts for football. The answer is the Big East basketball, and perhaps the formation of another Basketball only conference to fill out what would be a breakaway field for a tournament where each school split their portion of the profits annually and in full with the provider. We are talking millions more than what they are getting now. Depending on how deep in the tourney you go we could be talking 30 million range and that's a middle of the road estimate of some of the numbers I've heard tossed around.

Say hello to a lot more revenue for College baseball and softball with their tournaments and world series finals.

And who knows with the NCAA out of the way we may even be able to get more sponsorship for Olympic sports from the IOC and AOC and the corporations that back them.

So none of this is set in stone, but the monetary amounts for a contained football product will likely be a governor over how many make it into the final cut for football. Basketball only schools will get in on merit and from there we might have to see the same thing for baseball schools like Cal State Fullerton, Dallas Baptist, and Missouri State.

But none of this is motivated against the G5, but rather motivated out of a growing need for operating capital due to players rights coming down the road and the impact of the virus driving the need to more acute levels.

(05-27-2020 03:09 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  One problem with a "breakaway" is leadership. Who will lead it?

The leading college presidents? Please. They have much bigger fish to fry at the moment.

The leading college ADs? Any meeting of the ADs will be crashed by the NCAA leadership.

The P5 commissioners? Maybe. That's a small enough group that they could lead this. But it's really tricky. Any decisions they agree on effectively will have to be ratified by the presidents of the leading schools - because you know darn well that the Presidents of Texas, Ohio State, USC, UNC, etc all view their commissioners as their employee, not their boss.

That makes it a mess. Any objections will have to be settled by 5 powerless commissioners acting as intermediaries for the decision makers. If you've ever negotiated to buy a house, imagine that instead of two parties having two intermediaries, you have 20-30 important parties with 5 intermediaries about topics that might violate labor laws or anti-monopoly laws. Again, the Presidents don't have the time to do this by themselves... they're busy plugging budget gaps of hundreds of millions of dollars and don't want to risk the bad publicity that could come from leading this crusade.

The bolded part is the biggest reason that the NCAA gets away with looting the March Madness revenue pot instead of returning nearly all of it directly to the participating teams.

Those issues all exist in the NCAA, and leaving the NCAA won't make them worse. It's just a question of whether anyone with power wants to do this badly enough to actually do it.

If unions form that is when ND will bow-out.

I believe though the NCAA is a corrupt (inept) entity that needs to be dissolved.

(05-27-2020 03:09 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  One problem with a "breakaway" is leadership. Who will lead it?

The leading college presidents? Please. They have much bigger fish to fry at the moment.

The leading college ADs? Any meeting of the ADs will be crashed by the NCAA leadership.

The P5 commissioners? Maybe. That's a small enough group that they could lead this. But it's really tricky. Any decisions they agree on effectively will have to be ratified by the presidents of the leading schools - because you know darn well that the Presidents of Texas, Ohio State, USC, UNC, etc all view their commissioners as their employee, not their boss.

That makes it a mess. Any objections will have to be settled by 5 powerless commissioners acting as intermediaries for the decision makers. If you've ever negotiated to buy a house, imagine that instead of two parties having two intermediaries, you have 20-30 important parties with 5 intermediaries about topics that might violate labor laws or anti-monopoly laws. Again, the Presidents don't have the time to do this by themselves... they're busy plugging budget gaps of hundreds of millions of dollars and don't want to risk the bad publicity that could come from leading this crusade.

Come on you can do better than that. Who stands to make the most out of this other than the schools? Who drove the OU/UGa suit in the early 80's? It sure as hell wasn't the presidents and ADs. It was strongly encouraged behind the scenes by networks.

Have you guys stopped to consider who Mike Slive, Jim Delany, Warren, Sankey and other such guys really are? Contract lawyers for media rights companies. That's right the foxes were put in charge of the hen houses and the hens paid them!

Was realignment started by presidents and commissioners? No It was started when networks told Kramer and Delany how much more they could make by expanding.

Who is it that would like a better organized and contained football product to be a cheaper alternative to the NFL but one that had great advertising rewards because of the days on which it is played and the diverse audience it reaches? The Networks

And what was it that Howard Beal said when talking to his network executive when the executive explained to him who it was that drove the news and how it was that they made money? The fictional character from the movie Network exclaimed to Ned Beatty's character, "I have heard the voice of God." To which Ned Beatty said, "You probably have!" "It's TV dummy!" The brain trust for organization of a breakaway will be corporate in nature and will involve the commissioners who will show the AD's and College Presidents the sums they will make and the latter will drool and it will be a done deal.

IMO the biggest thing to be worked out would be subcontracted a unified officiating service, paid much better than the NCAA is, which will have its own enforcement wing and each conference will front their share of overhead to make it happen.

Once that is taken care of there isn't much else that need be done except for each athletic department to hire a legal team for the drawing up of contracts instead of grant and aids.

Those who can't wrap their heads around how far down the road this is are typical in their hysterical claims that it can't happen. It's already happening. Quit overthinking things and reacting like the sky if falling. The only thing happening, hopefully, is the death of an outdated, bloated, greedy organization that has 2 endowments of over a billion dollars total, that has no justification for ratholing that money save crisis and when one hit the first thing they did was to back away from using the endowed money to cover the schools that they exist to serve. In the South we say Piss on 'em! It's easier than people think when you have those who are dying to help you monetize and organize it waiting in the wings for an opportunity to do so.

I shake my head a lot at what I read here and categorize as ambient hysteria. It reminds me of an old saying that once adorned the walls of Auburn's School of Agriculture, but was removed when PC set in, "You can lead a whore to culture, but you can't make her think!" The word play of course was on horticulture, but the point was uncultured and uneducated leaves us all to be whores of the world. Well substitute slave for whore and you have what the NCAA has done to the athletes and to the schools, but when you think about it whore is still appropriate as well. We've been all working for a Pimp called the NCAA!.

(05-27-2020 02:49 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Can we find a way to make the NCAA death a big public spectacle? I have a lot of schadenfreude I need to get out over the NCAA's death. The more agonizing, humiliating, and public the spectacle of the NCAA's death the more I'll enjoy it.

Yes----as long as the spectators are social distancing.

(05-27-2020 03:26 PM)TexanMark Wrote:  Army, Navy and Air Force are question marks...I think they can survive at this level. But do they want to make this commitment?

The service academies do not follow normal recruiting rules. They survive by offering 50-60 mostly D2, FCS and low G5 officer candidates an appointment. They have a robust JV program and also utilize a prep school to red shirt one extra year those with academic work to accomplish.

No reason that would change. All their guys are on schollie---so they have always been different. Most kids going to an academy have different goals anyway. I suspect they would be fine.