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Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
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JRsec Offline
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Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
First the Virus:

1. It has already cut into earnings which heretofore were year upon year for budgetary reasons and non profit status. That means these are serious shortfalls that will time a long time to make up. So virtually everyone in any division of college athletics is currently under a cash flow impediment. For some it will be ruinous.

2. The Virus is poised to limit attendance further diminishing annual budgets from the loss of donations for tickets, the actual ticket purchases, and concessions and souvenirs.

3. The online experience may prove transforming, especially for undergraduate work the first two years where basic studies requirements are met. This is a topic, not sports related, that should be thoroughly considered for how it is going to change the future of Universities and how it is going to lessen the need for the number of them we presently have.

Demographics:

1. We are experiencing a downturn in the birth rate the nadir of which will be upon us within 5 years. Declining enrollment will be the result forcing ever more competition for enrollment.

2. More young people see the cost of education to exceed the ROI for it in terms of gainful employment. Trades are offering a better ROI so enrollment is down for that reason as well.

Both of these will impact realignment as large state schools will seek branding and recognition enhancement and sports

Travel Costs Will Have to Come Down:

1. Even for major universities when donations and ticket revenue are suppressed it will be necessary to suppress as much of the overhead as is practical. For minor sports that means more regionality.

2. Air travel is expensive compared to bus. Another reason for regionality.

Media Revenue:

1. Media Revenue is the only saving grace that can spare many programs very tough choices about the sports they offer and the sizes of their athletic departments. The stress in this area is going to become a massive for realignment and on an unprecedented scale.

2. This will exacerbate the distinction between the haves and have not conferences and inevitably lead to further consolidation .

3. This can occur if the Networks desire to obtain a higher quality of weekly games to broadcast. This means consolidation and exclusivity of play within a defined grouping. This will not be, and cannot be, an expansion of upper tier membership, but a reduction of it. The reason is simple. Networks are not going to pay the premium unless the volume of games they purchase improve the ratings.

That said I look for an upper tier of possibly 54 to 60 schools in no more than 3 conferences. Reducing conferences reduces overhead, increases leverage, and provides for ease of scheduling more regional groupings set up as divisions.

For this reason I think the merger of the PAC and Big 12 makes sound business sense and that the absorption of the ACC into the Big 10 and SEC does as well.

If you are looking at 3 conferences of 20 then maybe these are the moves that would be likely:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Virginia to the Big 10 from the ACC. Iowa State to the Big 10 from the Big 12. Missouri to the Big 10 from the SEC.

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech to the SEC from the ACC. West Virginia from the Big 12 to the SEC.

Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U. and Texas Tech to merge with the existing PAC.

Out and to the Big East: Boston College, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest

But he culling may be more extensive and 54 could prove more profitable:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Virginia to the Big 10.

Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech to the SEC.

The PAC and Big 12 use the expiration of both GOR's to reform this way:

From the PAC: Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Utah, Washington.

From the Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech.

West Virginia returns to the Big East. Baylor moves to the AAC.
Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest apply to the Big East.

The Big East is in the upper tier for Basketball and all other sports. Their football is not included and plays in a division against the AAC.
05-26-2020 10:53 AM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
To your point under Virus #3 and Demographics #2: If I was a bit younger, given this set of circumstances, I would probably try to shorten the amount of time I was paying for a large state university's tuition. Above average students would take more AP/CLEP/dual enrollment courses in high school and other students may more and more opt for community college's that offer the gen ed. requirements at a much cheaper rate.

I wonder if either:
1) A new/revamped level of "college" football will form for those community colleges, etc.
2) If the NCAA could go "old is new again" and make freshman ineligible.
3) Schools start offering gen ed. classes online at a reduced rate to be competitive.

All of these massively change the structures/systems that are in place.

On the other hand re: Media I wonder if the reverse of your position has some merit: If there is less money to around, then:
1) Longer contracts are actually more valuable. The ACC may be in a better position relative to the SEC/Big 10 if we are getting less on our contracts and the ACC is still in its "old" contract/GOR.
2) That would put conferences like the Big 12 more at risk since they have less money anyway and a short contract.

Perhaps that shifts Texas' thinking, and they do try to go ACC after all?

Just spitballing. Hope I make sense.
05-26-2020 01:42 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(05-26-2020 01:42 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  To your point under Virus #3 and Demographics #2: If I was a bit younger, given this set of circumstances, I would probably try to shorten the amount of time I was paying for a large state university's tuition. Above average students would take more AP/CLEP/dual enrollment courses in high school and other students may more and more opt for community college's that offer the gen ed. requirements at a much cheaper rate.

I wonder if either:
1) A new/revamped level of "college" football will form for those community colleges, etc.
2) If the NCAA could go "old is new again" and make freshman ineligible.
3) Schools start offering gen ed. classes online at a reduced rate to be competitive.

All of these massively change the structures/systems that are in place.

On the other hand re: Media I wonder if the reverse of your position has some merit: If there is less money to around, then:
1) Longer contracts are actually more valuable. The ACC may be in a better position relative to the SEC/Big 10 if we are getting less on our contracts and the ACC is still in its "old" contract/GOR.
2) That would put conferences like the Big 12 more at risk since they have less money anyway and a short contract.

Perhaps that shifts Texas' thinking, and they do try to go ACC after all?

Just spitballing. Hope I make sense.

Where you are on the right track is that the virus's forcing online classes will eventually open the eyes of the universities to the wisdom on increasing enrollment without having to house our accommodate the students. Look for all colleges to start teaching the first 2 years of undergraduate, which is basic studies, online only and for the only Freshman and Sophomores on campus to be honors students.

What this does is to free up an unlimited enrollment for the incoming class. Parents will like it because room and board is more than half of the cost of college for them. The students might not like it but successful completion of the first two years forever ties them to the school with an associates degree from that school whether they make the cut for the on campus Junior class or not. The AD's will like it because it will forever tie a lot more students to the school whether they complete their undergraduate there or not.

Smaller state schools will love it because it frees their campus space for more serious students as well but also assures them of large incoming Junior classes from those not making the cut for the larger state school. States will mandate that all hours transfer and will likely standardize those first 2 years course for all of their schools.

So it will be a revenue generator or the large State schools, and will free space for better students on campus and for more space to dedicated to research which will improve their academic standing in the nation and world. It's a win win that should have already been grasped but schools are very slow to adapt.

Where you are off base is with the ACC's woeful contract that locks them into a 30 million dollar deficit to the Big 10 and SEC until 2037. You could not be more wrong in your assessment about that. The SEC minimally will be making 67 million per school with the new ESPN deal. The question is does that start in 2022 because ESPN bought out CBS or do we wait until 2025? The Big 10 is making 54 with escalators and will likely get at least a 6 million bump in 2024 when they renew. The ACC will be fortunate to be making 32 million by then.

This is why there will be inordinate pressure for them to leave in order to make up the difference in a lousy contract.
05-26-2020 03:39 PM
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YNot Offline
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(05-26-2020 03:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-26-2020 01:42 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  To your point under Virus #3 and Demographics #2: If I was a bit younger, given this set of circumstances, I would probably try to shorten the amount of time I was paying for a large state university's tuition. Above average students would take more AP/CLEP/dual enrollment courses in high school and other students may more and more opt for community college's that offer the gen ed. requirements at a much cheaper rate.

I wonder if either:
1) A new/revamped level of "college" football will form for those community colleges, etc.
2) If the NCAA could go "old is new again" and make freshman ineligible.
3) Schools start offering gen ed. classes online at a reduced rate to be competitive.

All of these massively change the structures/systems that are in place.

On the other hand re: Media I wonder if the reverse of your position has some merit: If there is less money to around, then:
1) Longer contracts are actually more valuable. The ACC may be in a better position relative to the SEC/Big 10 if we are getting less on our contracts and the ACC is still in its "old" contract/GOR.
2) That would put conferences like the Big 12 more at risk since they have less money anyway and a short contract.

Perhaps that shifts Texas' thinking, and they do try to go ACC after all?

Just spitballing. Hope I make sense.

Where you are on the right track is that the virus's forcing online classes will eventually open the eyes of the universities to the wisdom on increasing enrollment without having to house our accommodate the students. Look for all colleges to start teaching the first 2 years of undergraduate, which is basic studies, online only and for the only Freshman and Sophomores on campus to be honors students.

What this does is to free up an unlimited enrollment for the incoming class. Parents will like it because room and board is more than half of the cost of college for them. The students might not like it but successful completion of the first two years forever ties them to the school with an associates degree from that school whether they make the cut for the on campus Junior class or not. The AD's will like it because it will forever tie a lot more students to the school whether they complete their undergraduate there or not.

Smaller state schools will love it because it frees their campus space for more serious students as well but also assures them of large incoming Junior classes from those not making the cut for the larger state school. States will mandate that all hours transfer and will likely standardize those first 2 years course for all of their schools.

So it will be a revenue generator or the large State schools, and will free space for better students on campus and for more space to dedicated to research which will improve their academic standing in the nation and world. It's a win win that should have already been grasped but schools are very slow to adapt.

Where you are off base is with the ACC's woeful contract that locks them into a 30 million dollar deficit to the Big 10 and SEC until 2037. You could not be more wrong in your assessment about that. The SEC minimally will be making 67 million per school with the new ESPN deal. The question is does that start in 2022 because ESPN bought out CBS or do we wait until 2025? The Big 10 is making 54 with escalators and will likely get at least a 6 million bump in 2024 when they renew. The ACC will be fortunate to be making 32 million by then.

This is why there will be inordinate pressure for them to leave in order to make up the difference in a lousy contract.

Schools with significant online enrollment could schedule exciting, but strictly voluntary, on-campus student events around the football and basketball home schedules. Socials and parties to meet your professors and classmates, keynote speakers, etc. Like homecoming for currently-enrolled online students.
05-26-2020 05:03 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
I have yet to see an online plan that deals with the labs associated with most STEM courses.
05-26-2020 06:06 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(05-26-2020 06:06 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  I have yet to see an online plan that deals with the labs associated with most STEM courses.

They'll do them on campus but in down times. You might see a 2 week short course between semesters where those needing labs attend campus and get their work done. But truly for taking care of basic studies most labs are truly little more than high school labs.
05-26-2020 06:16 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(05-26-2020 06:16 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-26-2020 06:06 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  I have yet to see an online plan that deals with the labs associated with most STEM courses.

They'll do them on campus but in down times. You might see a 2 week short course between semesters where those needing labs attend campus and get their work done. But truly for taking care of basic studies most labs are truly little more than high school labs.

True, but with the dearth of qualified STEM instructors at the high school level, I wouldn't trust them to properly proctor those labs or maintain the needed chemicals for the experiments. Physics wouldn't be that bad but Chemistry and Biology would be major hurdles. Perhaps partnerships with tech colleges would work.
05-27-2020 03:06 AM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(05-26-2020 10:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  First the Virus:

1. It has already cut into earnings which heretofore were year upon year for budgetary reasons and non profit status. That means these are serious shortfalls that will time a long time to make up. So virtually everyone in any division of college athletics is currently under a cash flow impediment. For some it will be ruinous.

2. The Virus is poised to limit attendance further diminishing annual budgets from the loss of donations for tickets, the actual ticket purchases, and concessions and souvenirs.

3. The online experience may prove transforming, especially for undergraduate work the first two years where basic studies requirements are met. This is a topic, not sports related, that should be thoroughly considered for how it is going to change the future of Universities and how it is going to lessen the need for the number of them we presently have.

Demographics:

1. We are experiencing a downturn in the birth rate the nadir of which will be upon us within 5 years. Declining enrollment will be the result forcing ever more competition for enrollment.

2. More young people see the cost of education to exceed the ROI for it in terms of gainful employment. Trades are offering a better ROI so enrollment is down for that reason as well.

Both of these will impact realignment as large state schools will seek branding and recognition enhancement and sports

Travel Costs Will Have to Come Down:

1. Even for major universities when donations and ticket revenue are suppressed it will be necessary to suppress as much of the overhead as is practical. For minor sports that means more regionality.

2. Air travel is expensive compared to bus. Another reason for regionality.

Media Revenue:

1. Media Revenue is the only saving grace that can spare many programs very tough choices about the sports they offer and the sizes of their athletic departments. The stress in this area is going to become a massive for realignment and on an unprecedented scale.

2. This will exacerbate the distinction between the haves and have not conferences and inevitably lead to further consolidation .

3. This can occur if the Networks desire to obtain a higher quality of weekly games to broadcast. This means consolidation and exclusivity of play within a defined grouping. This will not be, and cannot be, an expansion of upper tier membership, but a reduction of it. The reason is simple. Networks are not going to pay the premium unless the volume of games they purchase improve the ratings.

That said I look for an upper tier of possibly 54 to 60 schools in no more than 3 conferences. Reducing conferences reduces overhead, increases leverage, and provides for ease of scheduling more regional groupings set up as divisions.

For this reason I think the merger of the PAC and Big 12 makes sound business sense and that the absorption of the ACC into the Big 10 and SEC does as well.

If you are looking at 3 conferences of 20 then maybe these are the moves that would be likely:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Virginia to the Big 10 from the ACC. Iowa State to the Big 10 from the Big 12. Missouri to the Big 10 from the SEC.

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech to the SEC from the ACC. West Virginia from the Big 12 to the SEC.

Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U. and Texas Tech to merge with the existing PAC.

Out and to the Big East: Boston College, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest

But he culling may be more extensive and 54 could prove more profitable:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Virginia to the Big 10.

Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech to the SEC.

The PAC and Big 12 use the expiration of both GOR's to reform this way:

From the PAC: Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Utah, Washington.

From the Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech.

West Virginia returns to the Big East. Baylor moves to the AAC.
Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest apply to the Big East.

The Big East is in the upper tier for Basketball and all other sports. Their football is not included and plays in a division against the AAC.

When Fox bought the rights to the Big East people thought they overpaid for what they were getting. However, the Big East brand still has some cache, even after realignment. Getting UConn back was a statement move, even if it wouldn't be made clear immediately. They still have the original programs that are located in New York, Philadelphia and Washington. Cincinnati was replaced by Xavier, located in the same city. Programs were added in Chicago, Indianapolis, Milwaukee and Omaha since the original lineup.

If what happens comes close to the scenario presented I am going out of the way to say that the Big East would be the big winner by far. The rest, as you say, would be essentially forced to do this by circumstances outside of their control. Fox, through the Big East, would be really in the college basketball game with this. Share some of the games out with CBS, ABC, whoever wants them.

Unrelated, but very telling, is the speculation over a possible scheduling alliance/quasi merger between Conference USA and the Sun Belt Conference. If there's to be a massive reshuffling of the Power Five then, certainly, there would be a preview at the Group of Five level.
05-27-2020 03:19 AM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(05-26-2020 10:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  First the Virus:

1. It has already cut into earnings which heretofore were year upon year for budgetary reasons and non profit status. That means these are serious shortfalls that will time a long time to make up. So virtually everyone in any division of college athletics is currently under a cash flow impediment. For some it will be ruinous.

2. The Virus is poised to limit attendance further diminishing annual budgets from the loss of donations for tickets, the actual ticket purchases, and concessions and souvenirs.

3. The online experience may prove transforming, especially for undergraduate work the first two years where basic studies requirements are met. This is a topic, not sports related, that should be thoroughly considered for how it is going to change the future of Universities and how it is going to lessen the need for the number of them we presently have.

Demographics:

1. We are experiencing a downturn in the birth rate the nadir of which will be upon us within 5 years. Declining enrollment will be the result forcing ever more competition for enrollment.

2. More young people see the cost of education to exceed the ROI for it in terms of gainful employment. Trades are offering a better ROI so enrollment is down for that reason as well.

Both of these will impact realignment as large state schools will seek branding and recognition enhancement and sports

Travel Costs Will Have to Come Down:

1. Even for major universities when donations and ticket revenue are suppressed it will be necessary to suppress as much of the overhead as is practical. For minor sports that means more regionality.

2. Air travel is expensive compared to bus. Another reason for regionality.

Media Revenue:

1. Media Revenue is the only saving grace that can spare many programs very tough choices about the sports they offer and the sizes of their athletic departments. The stress in this area is going to become a massive for realignment and on an unprecedented scale.

2. This will exacerbate the distinction between the haves and have not conferences and inevitably lead to further consolidation .

3. This can occur if the Networks desire to obtain a higher quality of weekly games to broadcast. This means consolidation and exclusivity of play within a defined grouping. This will not be, and cannot be, an expansion of upper tier membership, but a reduction of it. The reason is simple. Networks are not going to pay the premium unless the volume of games they purchase improve the ratings.

That said I look for an upper tier of possibly 54 to 60 schools in no more than 3 conferences. Reducing conferences reduces overhead, increases leverage, and provides for ease of scheduling more regional groupings set up as divisions.

For this reason I think the merger of the PAC and Big 12 makes sound business sense and that the absorption of the ACC into the Big 10 and SEC does as well.

If you are looking at 3 conferences of 20 then maybe these are the moves that would be likely:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Virginia to the Big 10 from the ACC. Iowa State to the Big 10 from the Big 12. Missouri to the Big 10 from the SEC.

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech to the SEC from the ACC. West Virginia from the Big 12 to the SEC.

Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U. and Texas Tech to merge with the existing PAC.

Out and to the Big East: Boston College, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest

But he culling may be more extensive and 54 could prove more profitable:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Virginia to the Big 10.

Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech to the SEC.

The PAC and Big 12 use the expiration of both GOR's to reform this way:

From the PAC: Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Utah, Washington.

From the Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech.

West Virginia returns to the Big East. Baylor moves to the AAC.
Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest apply to the Big East.


The Big East is in the upper tier for Basketball and all other sports. Their football is not included and plays in a division against the AAC.

I'll go out on a limb and say the SEC rescues Georgia Tech and Louisville.

The state legislatures will apply some pressure and I don't think the SEC would be opposed because the two additions would tighten the core geographically and that will reduce travel.

UL now has the revenue to really warrant inclusion in the highest echelon. GT is just the beneficiary of being in a key SEC state.

20 works because you can divide everything by 4...so you can go division-less or you can build 4 divisions of equal number.

Another slight point of difference, I don't think Vanderbilt sticks around. They're already having trouble raising funds for major athletics. World events are only going to exacerbate that. I also don't see them moving towards expanded online classes because a small enrollment is a part of their mission. They want quality over quantity. I think they apply to the Big East because frankly, their football and basketball product don't provide quality content to the SEC anyway. It's an amicable separation that benefits both parties.

Who would take their slot? We really need a private school so I'm going to gamble and say it's Miami. They still want football glory so I think they'd spend to attain it to some degree. That and their market would help TV even if their fan base is smallish. Their name brand(albeit weakened) would still provide the greatest benefit of any private in our region.

SEC:

Atlantic: Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State
East: Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Louisville, Tennessee, South Carolina
Central: Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State
West: Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri

You play 4 division mates, one permanent rival from each of the other 3 divisions, and one rotating match through each of the other 3. The benefit of 10 league games among 20 schools is it puts a lot of content under one roof which helps increase the TV value.

Nothing too different with the Big Ten:

West: Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Central: Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame
East: Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh
Atlantic: Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke

PAC 12/Big 12 merger:

Pacific: UCLA, USC, California, Stanford, Oregon, Washington
Mountain: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State
South: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

There you have 58 and all in fairly tight divisions within their conference.

I think the Big East is also a strong beneficiary. The band gets back together so to speak...

Vanderbilt and Wake Forest move to the Big East where they can put football on the back burner completely and their conferences mates will be happy about it. Maybe one more basketball first school joins the league so they can have an even 14.

Syracuse, West Virginia, and Boston College move to the AAC.

Oregon State, Washington State, and BYU move to the Mountain West.
05-27-2020 02:19 PM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(05-27-2020 02:19 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(05-26-2020 10:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  First the Virus:

1. It has already cut into earnings which heretofore were year upon year for budgetary reasons and non profit status. That means these are serious shortfalls that will time a long time to make up. So virtually everyone in any division of college athletics is currently under a cash flow impediment. For some it will be ruinous.

2. The Virus is poised to limit attendance further diminishing annual budgets from the loss of donations for tickets, the actual ticket purchases, and concessions and souvenirs.

3. The online experience may prove transforming, especially for undergraduate work the first two years where basic studies requirements are met. This is a topic, not sports related, that should be thoroughly considered for how it is going to change the future of Universities and how it is going to lessen the need for the number of them we presently have.

Demographics:

1. We are experiencing a downturn in the birth rate the nadir of which will be upon us within 5 years. Declining enrollment will be the result forcing ever more competition for enrollment.

2. More young people see the cost of education to exceed the ROI for it in terms of gainful employment. Trades are offering a better ROI so enrollment is down for that reason as well.

Both of these will impact realignment as large state schools will seek branding and recognition enhancement and sports

Travel Costs Will Have to Come Down:

1. Even for major universities when donations and ticket revenue are suppressed it will be necessary to suppress as much of the overhead as is practical. For minor sports that means more regionality.

2. Air travel is expensive compared to bus. Another reason for regionality.

Media Revenue:

1. Media Revenue is the only saving grace that can spare many programs very tough choices about the sports they offer and the sizes of their athletic departments. The stress in this area is going to become a massive for realignment and on an unprecedented scale.

2. This will exacerbate the distinction between the haves and have not conferences and inevitably lead to further consolidation .

3. This can occur if the Networks desire to obtain a higher quality of weekly games to broadcast. This means consolidation and exclusivity of play within a defined grouping. This will not be, and cannot be, an expansion of upper tier membership, but a reduction of it. The reason is simple. Networks are not going to pay the premium unless the volume of games they purchase improve the ratings.

That said I look for an upper tier of possibly 54 to 60 schools in no more than 3 conferences. Reducing conferences reduces overhead, increases leverage, and provides for ease of scheduling more regional groupings set up as divisions.

For this reason I think the merger of the PAC and Big 12 makes sound business sense and that the absorption of the ACC into the Big 10 and SEC does as well.

If you are looking at 3 conferences of 20 then maybe these are the moves that would be likely:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Virginia to the Big 10 from the ACC. Iowa State to the Big 10 from the Big 12. Missouri to the Big 10 from the SEC.

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech to the SEC from the ACC. West Virginia from the Big 12 to the SEC.

Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U. and Texas Tech to merge with the existing PAC.

Out and to the Big East: Boston College, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest

But he culling may be more extensive and 54 could prove more profitable:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Virginia to the Big 10.

Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech to the SEC.

The PAC and Big 12 use the expiration of both GOR's to reform this way:

From the PAC: Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Utah, Washington.

From the Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech.

West Virginia returns to the Big East. Baylor moves to the AAC.
Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest apply to the Big East.


The Big East is in the upper tier for Basketball and all other sports. Their football is not included and plays in a division against the AAC.

I'll go out on a limb and say the SEC rescues Georgia Tech and Louisville.

The state legislatures will apply some pressure and I don't think the SEC would be opposed because the two additions would tighten the core geographically and that will reduce travel.

UL now has the revenue to really warrant inclusion in the highest echelon. GT is just the beneficiary of being in a key SEC state.

20 works because you can divide everything by 4...so you can go division-less or you can build 4 divisions of equal number.

Another slight point of difference, I don't think Vanderbilt sticks around. They're already having trouble raising funds for major athletics. World events are only going to exacerbate that. I also don't see them moving towards expanded online classes because a small enrollment is a part of their mission. They want quality over quantity. I think they apply to the Big East because frankly, their football and basketball product don't provide quality content to the SEC anyway. It's an amicable separation that benefits both parties.

Who would take their slot? We really need a private school so I'm going to gamble and say it's Miami. They still want football glory so I think they'd spend to attain it to some degree. That and their market would help TV even if their fan base is smallish. Their name brand(albeit weakened) would still provide the greatest benefit of any private in our region.

SEC:

Atlantic: Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State
East: Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Louisville, Tennessee, South Carolina
Central: Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State
West: Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri

You play 4 division mates, one permanent rival from each of the other 3 divisions, and one rotating match through each of the other 3. The benefit of 10 league games among 20 schools is it puts a lot of content under one roof which helps increase the TV value.

Nothing too different with the Big Ten:

West: Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Central: Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame
East: Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh
Atlantic: Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke

PAC 12/Big 12 merger:

Pacific: UCLA, USC, California, Stanford, Oregon, Washington
Mountain: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State
South: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

There you have 58 and all in fairly tight divisions within their conference.

I think the Big East is also a strong beneficiary. The band gets back together so to speak...

Vanderbilt and Wake Forest move to the Big East where they can put football on the back burner completely and their conferences mates will be happy about it. Maybe one more basketball first school joins the league so they can have an even 14.

Syracuse, West Virginia, and Boston College move to the AAC.

Oregon State, Washington State, and BYU move to the Mountain West.

Checking the gross total revenue thread, Miami reported $127,170,251. For some comparisons: Vanderbilt reported $84,191,143; Notre Dame $169,547,675; Georgia Tech $79,491,714; Duke $116,021,513; and Syracuse $99,815,688.

So if you go by how much revenue they can raise, I think Miami can keep up. But you may be right that it would be a simple matter of which private school could best replace the Commodores in the SEC.
05-28-2020 12:04 AM
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AllTideUp Offline
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(05-28-2020 12:04 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(05-27-2020 02:19 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  
(05-26-2020 10:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  First the Virus:

1. It has already cut into earnings which heretofore were year upon year for budgetary reasons and non profit status. That means these are serious shortfalls that will time a long time to make up. So virtually everyone in any division of college athletics is currently under a cash flow impediment. For some it will be ruinous.

2. The Virus is poised to limit attendance further diminishing annual budgets from the loss of donations for tickets, the actual ticket purchases, and concessions and souvenirs.

3. The online experience may prove transforming, especially for undergraduate work the first two years where basic studies requirements are met. This is a topic, not sports related, that should be thoroughly considered for how it is going to change the future of Universities and how it is going to lessen the need for the number of them we presently have.

Demographics:

1. We are experiencing a downturn in the birth rate the nadir of which will be upon us within 5 years. Declining enrollment will be the result forcing ever more competition for enrollment.

2. More young people see the cost of education to exceed the ROI for it in terms of gainful employment. Trades are offering a better ROI so enrollment is down for that reason as well.

Both of these will impact realignment as large state schools will seek branding and recognition enhancement and sports

Travel Costs Will Have to Come Down:

1. Even for major universities when donations and ticket revenue are suppressed it will be necessary to suppress as much of the overhead as is practical. For minor sports that means more regionality.

2. Air travel is expensive compared to bus. Another reason for regionality.

Media Revenue:

1. Media Revenue is the only saving grace that can spare many programs very tough choices about the sports they offer and the sizes of their athletic departments. The stress in this area is going to become a massive for realignment and on an unprecedented scale.

2. This will exacerbate the distinction between the haves and have not conferences and inevitably lead to further consolidation .

3. This can occur if the Networks desire to obtain a higher quality of weekly games to broadcast. This means consolidation and exclusivity of play within a defined grouping. This will not be, and cannot be, an expansion of upper tier membership, but a reduction of it. The reason is simple. Networks are not going to pay the premium unless the volume of games they purchase improve the ratings.

That said I look for an upper tier of possibly 54 to 60 schools in no more than 3 conferences. Reducing conferences reduces overhead, increases leverage, and provides for ease of scheduling more regional groupings set up as divisions.

For this reason I think the merger of the PAC and Big 12 makes sound business sense and that the absorption of the ACC into the Big 10 and SEC does as well.

If you are looking at 3 conferences of 20 then maybe these are the moves that would be likely:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, and Virginia to the Big 10 from the ACC. Iowa State to the Big 10 from the Big 12. Missouri to the Big 10 from the SEC.

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, N.C. State, and Virginia Tech to the SEC from the ACC. West Virginia from the Big 12 to the SEC.

Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U. and Texas Tech to merge with the existing PAC.

Out and to the Big East: Boston College, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest

But he culling may be more extensive and 54 could prove more profitable:

North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Virginia to the Big 10.

Clemson, Florida State, N.C. State, Virginia Tech to the SEC.

The PAC and Big 12 use the expiration of both GOR's to reform this way:

From the PAC: Arizona, Arizona State, California, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, Stanford, Utah, Washington.

From the Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, T.C.U., Texas Tech.

West Virginia returns to the Big East. Baylor moves to the AAC.
Duke, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest apply to the Big East.


The Big East is in the upper tier for Basketball and all other sports. Their football is not included and plays in a division against the AAC.

I'll go out on a limb and say the SEC rescues Georgia Tech and Louisville.

The state legislatures will apply some pressure and I don't think the SEC would be opposed because the two additions would tighten the core geographically and that will reduce travel.

UL now has the revenue to really warrant inclusion in the highest echelon. GT is just the beneficiary of being in a key SEC state.

20 works because you can divide everything by 4...so you can go division-less or you can build 4 divisions of equal number.

Another slight point of difference, I don't think Vanderbilt sticks around. They're already having trouble raising funds for major athletics. World events are only going to exacerbate that. I also don't see them moving towards expanded online classes because a small enrollment is a part of their mission. They want quality over quantity. I think they apply to the Big East because frankly, their football and basketball product don't provide quality content to the SEC anyway. It's an amicable separation that benefits both parties.

Who would take their slot? We really need a private school so I'm going to gamble and say it's Miami. They still want football glory so I think they'd spend to attain it to some degree. That and their market would help TV even if their fan base is smallish. Their name brand(albeit weakened) would still provide the greatest benefit of any private in our region.

SEC:

Atlantic: Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State
East: Virginia Tech, Kentucky, Louisville, Tennessee, South Carolina
Central: Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State
West: Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri

You play 4 division mates, one permanent rival from each of the other 3 divisions, and one rotating match through each of the other 3. The benefit of 10 league games among 20 schools is it puts a lot of content under one roof which helps increase the TV value.

Nothing too different with the Big Ten:

West: Nebraska, Iowa, Iowa State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Central: Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame
East: Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh
Atlantic: Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke

PAC 12/Big 12 merger:

Pacific: UCLA, USC, California, Stanford, Oregon, Washington
Mountain: Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State
South: Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

There you have 58 and all in fairly tight divisions within their conference.

I think the Big East is also a strong beneficiary. The band gets back together so to speak...

Vanderbilt and Wake Forest move to the Big East where they can put football on the back burner completely and their conferences mates will be happy about it. Maybe one more basketball first school joins the league so they can have an even 14.

Syracuse, West Virginia, and Boston College move to the AAC.

Oregon State, Washington State, and BYU move to the Mountain West.

Checking the gross total revenue thread, Miami reported $127,170,251. For some comparisons: Vanderbilt reported $84,191,143; Notre Dame $169,547,675; Georgia Tech $79,491,714; Duke $116,021,513; and Syracuse $99,815,688.

So if you go by how much revenue they can raise, I think Miami can keep up. But you may be right that it would be a simple matter of which private school could best replace the Commodores in the SEC.

Yeah, I think it's fair to say the Canes are not what they used to be in the grand scheme of college football, but I think it's also fair to say they haven't regressed to obscurity.

As long as they give you a decent uptick in TV ratings as opposed to all these other schools then I think it's a good move.
05-28-2020 03:35 AM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
I'm not yet ready to say it's going to happen but something has changed behind the scenes and it has the potential of remaking college football for good.

https://theacc.com/news/2020/7/29/genera...ports.aspx

https://www.si.com/college/tmg/_storyPre...6051776052


Should this come to fruition I believe that pressure would immediately be put on the Big 12 and Pac 12 (and somewhat Big 10, as they may have to do something to counter the move [the move to add MD and RU was partly in response to what the ACC was doing to the former Big East]). In the very least, the ACC would jump to the clear #3 spot and maybe higher if they can snag another whale program.
07-29-2020 04:27 PM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(07-29-2020 04:27 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  I'm not yet ready to say it's going to happen but something has changed behind the scenes and it has the potential of remaking college football for good.

https://theacc.com/news/2020/7/29/genera...ports.aspx

https://www.si.com/college/tmg/_storyPre...6051776052


Should this come to fruition I believe that pressure would immediately be put on the Big 12 and Pac 12 (and somewhat Big 10, as they may have to do something to counter the move [the move to add MD and RU was partly in response to what the ACC was doing to the former Big East]). In the very least, the ACC would jump to the clear #3 spot and maybe higher if they can snag another whale program.

1. I agree it will be a slippery slope move for Notre Dame to do this, but the circumstances were compelling. So maybe it becomes permanent, but likely it doesn't.

2. With Notre Dame in the conference in full it does not make them #3, not even close. The Big 12 will still hold that position and by a fairly significant margin. N.D. will add between 2.5 to 3 million in per team payouts to the ACC members. So think 34 million range for ACC payouts. The Big 12 will still be sitting at around 38 million. If the best two brands in the ACC are Notre Dame and Clemson and the best two brands in the Big 12 are Texas and Oklahoma guess who still comes out on top?

3. What Notre Dame going all in will do is make the Big 10 double down on its efforts to land key schools from the Big 12 or possibly the PAC 12.

And what it will do for the SEC is put even a deeper preference for Texas and Oklahoma and possibly Kansas.

I could see the ACC looking to round out to 16 with Cincinnati if N.D. joins in full.
Send Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big 10 and Texas and West Virginia to the SEC and nobody needs the PAC.

Arkansas, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, West Virginia

If Texas insists on Tech you add Tech in place of Missouri and bump Missouri into WVU's place.

Of course this would be the perfect place for Missouri and Kansas to the Big 10, Texas, Oklahoma, and West Virginia to the SEC.
07-29-2020 04:55 PM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
https://www.si.com/college/tmg/_storyPre...6051776052

Quote:An 8 plus one or two game independent schedule would have been perfect for ND, which could play a full ACC schedule, as well as Navy and Arkansas. If they can beat Clemson, they very well could be 10-0 with an almost guaranteed spot in the Final Four.

That is the safer path for the Irish, but it would come without the huge financial boost from the ACC.

The ACC championship game caveat creates a problem, because as a full member an undefeated Notre Dame would have a spot in the ACC title game, where they are most likely to face Clemson again--in Charlotte.

Want to post the odds on Notre Dame beating Clemson twice in a season, including a second game in North Carolina?

And if the Irish beat Clemson in South Bend and lost in Charlotte, they would be a long shot to even make the playoffs.

As an enticement to accept that, the ACC added the offer of a full ACC revenue payout, which combined with Notre Dame's share of its television contract with NBC would be a boost in income for ND of more than 35 million dollars.

For that, however, the ACC clearly wants Notre Dame to accept a permanent position in football sooner rather than later, a move which would guarantee ND's financial athletic security.

Tough moral choice for ND, which traditionally has ignored all money matters as a deciding factor.

On Wednesday, they made their first choice, by accepting full membership and the money for one year.

According to several sources familiar with the process, Swofford clearly was the force behind getting ND signed.

What's that line again about how we're all whores we're just haggling over the price? If the ACC could do this to convince the Domers to forego independence for one year, what's to say they couldn't do similar for more years...

or for perpetuity?
07-29-2020 08:36 PM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(07-29-2020 08:36 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  https://www.si.com/college/tmg/_storyPre...6051776052

Quote:An 8 plus one or two game independent schedule would have been perfect for ND, which could play a full ACC schedule, as well as Navy and Arkansas. If they can beat Clemson, they very well could be 10-0 with an almost guaranteed spot in the Final Four.

That is the safer path for the Irish, but it would come without the huge financial boost from the ACC.

The ACC championship game caveat creates a problem, because as a full member an undefeated Notre Dame would have a spot in the ACC title game, where they are most likely to face Clemson again--in Charlotte.

Want to post the odds on Notre Dame beating Clemson twice in a season, including a second game in North Carolina?

And if the Irish beat Clemson in South Bend and lost in Charlotte, they would be a long shot to even make the playoffs.

As an enticement to accept that, the ACC added the offer of a full ACC revenue payout, which combined with Notre Dame's share of its television contract with NBC would be a boost in income for ND of more than 35 million dollars.

For that, however, the ACC clearly wants Notre Dame to accept a permanent position in football sooner rather than later, a move which would guarantee ND's financial athletic security.

Tough moral choice for ND, which traditionally has ignored all money matters as a deciding factor.

On Wednesday, they made their first choice, by accepting full membership and the money for one year.

According to several sources familiar with the process, Swofford clearly was the force behind getting ND signed.

What's that line again about how we're all whores we're just haggling over the price? If the ACC could do this to convince the Domers to forego independence for one year, what's to say they couldn't do similar for more years...

or for perpetuity?

I can see it. Notre Dame knows if the ACC get parsed that there is literally nowhere left for them to head but the Big 10. They can play 10 games in the ACC have Georgia / South Carolina and Florida Exposure, play in New York, Boston, and Pennsylvania, play in neighboring Kentucky and if a Cincinnati joins they can play in one of their oldest recruiting grounds in the strongest Big 10 football state.

What's more if they do move to 10 conference games permanently, and we are headed there slowly anyway, they can still play Navy and USC.

I think they know that by joining they will keep the ACC together making them at least competitive to the Big 12 which means that if the Big 10 and SEC are to expand it will be out of either the Big 12 or PAC and putting the pressure on Texas and Oklahoma to make moves that secure their positions for many years to come.

So I don't rule this possibility as being out of hand, but rather see it as a test drive.
(This post was last modified: 07-31-2020 06:29 AM by JRsec.)
07-29-2020 08:53 PM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
Another potentially consequential item is the doing away of divisions for this season (and rumors of going without divisions for good after this season). From reading the main board, people are soured on divisions. There's always talking of coming up with optimal divisions. Personally, I like having divisions, but I can understand fans wanting to see programs from the other division more. At least with no divisions there won't be any need for a locked rival in the other division as teams would be more flexible on who they would prefer to see.
07-30-2020 01:28 AM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(07-30-2020 01:28 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Another potentially consequential item is the doing away of divisions for this season (and rumors of going without divisions for good after this season). From reading the main board, people are soured on divisions. There's always talking of coming up with optimal divisions. Personally, I like having divisions, but I can understand fans wanting to see programs from the other division more. At least with no divisions there won't be any need for a locked rival in the other division as teams would be more flexible on who they would prefer to see.

Transic, if we could scrap divisions then each school in a 16 team conference could play everyone within 2 years by having 5 permanent rivals, playing a 10 game schedule and rotating the other 10 annually and changing the home and home on the completed cycle they could literally play everyone in the conference home and away every 4 years.
07-30-2020 11:16 AM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(07-30-2020 11:16 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-30-2020 01:28 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Another potentially consequential item is the doing away of divisions for this season (and rumors of going without divisions for good after this season). From reading the main board, people are soured on divisions. There's always talking of coming up with optimal divisions. Personally, I like having divisions, but I can understand fans wanting to see programs from the other division more. At least with no divisions there won't be any need for a locked rival in the other division as teams would be more flexible on who they would prefer to see.

Transic, if we could scrap divisions then each school in a 16 team conference could play everyone within 2 years by having 5 permanent rivals, playing a 10 game schedule and rotating the other 10 annually and changing the home and home on the completed cycle they could literally play everyone in the conference home and away every 4 years.

I like divisionless with CCG of the top 2. I do wonder if an additional data point for the other 14 schools could be provided for bowls and fans would have a guaranteed 13th game. #3 hosts #4, #5 hosts #6, etc.
07-30-2020 12:44 PM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
If Notre Dame decides to make it permanent then there are probably a few reasons it makes sense.

1. Like JR said, it will strengthen the ACC and make it less susceptible to collapse later. If this is the league ND wants to be in then they need to act in its best interest. They may not have the opportunity to be so choosy later.

2. The money is better and that will help allay any shortfalls. But just like a government program...once you start feeding from the trough then it becomes harder to pull away when the opportunity arises.

3. They can name their partner for 16. Cincinnati makes sense, but so does a school like Houston. The latter makes more sense if we're thinking in terms of weakening the position of the Big 12. Not that the Big 12 really wants UH, but another P5 school in their backyard will weaken their relative position...as well as add some fresh media possibilities for the ACC. Just as an aside, there are plenty of Catholics in TX. If ND is looking for some new opportunities to market themselves and recruit simultaneously then the city of Houston is a pretty darn good option.
07-31-2020 06:22 AM
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RE: Everything Points to Further Consolidation Among the P5, Like It or Not.
(07-30-2020 11:16 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-30-2020 01:28 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  Another potentially consequential item is the doing away of divisions for this season (and rumors of going without divisions for good after this season). From reading the main board, people are soured on divisions. There's always talking of coming up with optimal divisions. Personally, I like having divisions, but I can understand fans wanting to see programs from the other division more. At least with no divisions there won't be any need for a locked rival in the other division as teams would be more flexible on who they would prefer to see.

Transic, if we could scrap divisions then each school in a 16 team conference could play everyone within 2 years by having 5 permanent rivals, playing a 10 game schedule and rotating the other 10 annually and changing the home and home on the completed cycle they could literally play everyone in the conference home and away every 4 years.

Even without expanding, we can do this right now and keep 8 conference games. 3 permanent 5 rotating. Protects basically every major game
08-03-2020 05:41 PM
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