Which FBS conferences will be affected by realignments between now and 2026?

It seems that the most likely realignment scenario that college sports fans expect is for the Big-12 to add at least one or two teams, especially if some Big-12 team(s) depart for another P5 conference.

(05-25-2020 08:46 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  It seems that the most likely realignment scenario that college sports fans expect is for the Big-12 to add at least one or two teams, especially if some Big-12 team(s) depart for another P5 conference.

I think getting back to 12, especially if they lose a couple is important. I can see Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Kansas finding homes. If 4 of those 5 leave, then add Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, Temple, Central Florida, and South Florida for 12. I say this because divisions might be a little easier to manage.

West: TCU, Baylor, Houston, Oklahoma St, Kansas St, Iowa St
East: Memphis, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Temple, Central Florida, South Florida

The Big 12 will stand pat are add 4 teams from the Pac-12.

At the very least I expect the PAC 12 to try and get to 14. I also see the Big 12 to also try to get to 14. I think that the G5 conferences go to and stay at 12.(eventually) I don't see the SEC,ACC and Big Ten expanding at all.

(05-25-2020 09:22 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  The Big 12 will stand pat are add 4 teams from the Pac-12.

Any hints that any of the Pac-12 schools are inclined to switch to the Big 12? If so, which two would be most likely to do so?

While the most likely scenario is probably no significant change, the most likely conferences to be affected are the Big 12 and in turn the AAC and CUSA (and probably the Sun Belt), regardless of who's raiding the Big 12. The Big Ten and SEC are obviously the most likely such raiders, with the Pac-12 a distant third. The least likely conferences to be affected are the ACC, due to their current grant of rights, and the MAC and MWC, which lack the most desirable adds for the conferences above them and are also protected to a large extent by geography.

(05-25-2020 09:57 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  While the most likely scenario is probably no significant change, the most likely conferences to be affected are the Big 12 and in turn the AAC and CUSA (and probably the Sun Belt), regardless of who's raiding the Big 12. The Big Ten and SEC are obviously the most likely such raiders, with the Pac-12 a distant third. The least likely conferences to be affected are the ACC, due to their current grant of rights, and the MAC and MWC, which lack the most desirable adds for the conferences above them and are also protected to a large extent by geography.

I believe it's possible that the Big 12 might prefer to take one of the top MWC schools, rather than (or along with) one of the top AAC schools.

(05-25-2020 11:09 PM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(05-25-2020 09:57 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  While the most likely scenario is probably no significant change, the most likely conferences to be affected are the Big 12 and in turn the AAC and CUSA (and probably the Sun Belt), regardless of who's raiding the Big 12. The Big Ten and SEC are obviously the most likely such raiders, with the Pac-12 a distant third. The least likely conferences to be affected are the ACC, due to their current grant of rights, and the MAC and MWC, which lack the most desirable adds for the conferences above them and are also protected to a large extent by geography.

I believe it's possible that the Big 12 might prefer to take one of the top MWC schools, rather than (or along with) one of the top AAC schools.

It's possible, but it's smarter to expand east than west. Also, WVU is not likely to be picked off by another conference, so expanding west would only worsen the travel situation.

No offense, but anyone who thinks that any current Pac-12 schools would voluntarily leave for the Big 12 is highly misinformed.

I took a guess that Oklahoma goes to the Big Ten (SEC would be the same effect ... I rate it 55-40 B1G over SEC, 5% OU stays put), but Texas stays put.

The MAC may lose a school or two to dropping out of D-I, but no replacement. MWC wont be touched.

Besides and OU move to SEC or B1G I don't see any other P5 to P5 moves.

Who replaces them? 50-50 it's BYU, otherwise a school from the AAC acceptable to Texas.

If OU stays put then only CUSA-SBC reorg to watch

CUSA and the SBC will at some point reorg. The WAC (NMSU) and ASUN (Liberty) might lose schools in this process.

Very interestingly, C-USA and the Sun Belt Conference are apparently having a serious discussion about a merger, with East and West Divisions, motivated by the Covid-19 epidemic and need to cut travel costs.

See the thread on that topic.

(05-25-2020 11:41 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  I took a guess that Oklahoma goes to the Big Ten (SEC would be the same effect ... I rate it 55-40 B1G over SEC, 5% OU stays put), but Texas stays put.

The MAC may lose a school or two to dropping out of D-I, but no replacement. MWC wont be touched.

Besides and OU move to SEC or B1G I don't see any other P5 to P5 moves.

Who replaces them? 50-50 it's BYU, otherwise a school from the AAC acceptable to Texas.

If OU stays put then only CUSA-SBC reorg to watch

CUSA and the SBC will at some point reorg. The WAC (NMSU) and ASUN (Liberty) might lose schools in this process.

In the last 80 years no NON AAU school has been invited to the Big10. True Nebraska is no longer a member of the AAU but they were when they entered the Big 10. I just do not see the B1G changing their policy. I live in the heart of B1G football and they are very proud of their academics. Often more proud than they should be. The Pac12 is a more likely contributor to the Big 10
.

The MAC isn't going to lose any schools to P5 or other G5 leagues. If they do lose anybody, it'll be to schools losing FBS or D1 status because of financial shortfalls.

The MAC is very interesting to me. They're arguably the most stable G5 league. Despit the rotation in and out of football only members the past 20 years, their roster is the same as it was in 1999, minus Marshall. They schools have a common identity, while ther G5 leagues can't necessarily say the same. They are solid undertraduate (and many boast strong graduate programs) Midwestern schools, or at least Rust Belt schools (Buffalo). They're by far the most travel friendly conference in FBS.

At the same time, it's alarming how many sports have already been dropped by MAC schools.... Anyone can feel free to call me out if I am wrong, because I will be the first to admit it, but I wonder if the midweek MAC games have ultimately hurt athletic departments' bottom lines. Yes, there is some ESPN money and exposure which allegedly cannot have a price tag. But how much does it hurt season and individual game ticket sales when it's darn near impossible for some Cleveland resident who is a Miami (OH) grad to make it to Oxford two Tuesdays in November? How badly have alumni donations been hurt when the past dozen years of graduates weren't able to build fond memories of their school's team because they were writing a 10 page paper on a Wednesday game night? I realize there are other economic forces at hand here. The pandemic is hurting everybody, but the MAC has also had most of their schools decline in enrollment in the past decade.

Anyway, I still think the MAC of today will still pretty much be the same MAC in ten years. Their solidarity outweighs their problems.

(05-26-2020 12:33 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The MAC isn't going to lose any schools to P5 or other G5 leagues. If they do lose anybody, it'll be to schools losing FBS or D1 status because of financial shortfalls.

The MAC is very interesting to me. They're arguably the most stable G5 league. Despit the rotation in and out of football only members the past 20 years, their roster is the same as it was in 1999, minus Marshall. They schools have a common identity, while ther G5 leagues can't necessarily say the same. They are solid undertraduate (and many boast strong graduate programs) Midwestern schools, or at least Rust Belt schools (Buffalo). They're by far the most travel friendly conference in FBS.

I still think the MAC of today will still pretty much be the same MAC in ten years. Their solidarity outweighs their problems.

If the MAC were to expand, they might bring aboard a couple of current midwestern or mideastern FCS schools that want to move up to FBS level. Check out this article:

10 FCS college football teams that could become FBS schools

Illinois State

"The Redbirds aren’t necessarily a powerhouse in the FCS, but have recently made a national title game in 2014. Illinois State would be part of the MAC conference and would join Northern Illinois as another team from the state of Illinois. In my opinion, they would be able to compete in the MAC, as they did beat Northwestern a couple years back."




North Dakota State:

The Bison are the top candidate to move up to the FBS ranks and the MAC would likely be the landing spot. NDSU has dominated the FCS playoffs for the last 10 years. The Bison have won 7/8 FCS national titles and would immediately be a contender in the MAC. If NDSU competed right away in the MAC, perhaps they could even make the jump to the Big Ten. They have beaten a couple of FBS schools including Iowa, Kansas St and Iowa St. The Bison are easily the best candidate to move up."

Youngstown State

"The Penguins made an FCS national title appearance in 2016, but that is their only playoff appearance this decade. YSU would fit into the MAC with all of the other Ohio teams in the conference and could resurrect their rivalry series with Akron. The Penguins have a former P5 coach in Bo Pelini who would recruit well with a little extra help in the FBS ranks."

https://pypeline.co/10-fcs-college-footb...s-schools/

BIG12 > AAC > CUSA > Sun Belt

That's gonna be the chain reaction

(05-26-2020 01:01 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(05-26-2020 12:33 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The MAC isn't going to lose any schools to P5 or other G5 leagues. If they do lose anybody, it'll be to schools losing FBS or D1 status because of financial shortfalls.

The MAC is very interesting to me. They're arguably the most stable G5 league. Despit the rotation in and out of football only members the past 20 years, their roster is the same as it was in 1999, minus Marshall. They schools have a common identity, while ther G5 leagues can't necessarily say the same. They are solid undertraduate (and many boast strong graduate programs) Midwestern schools, or at least Rust Belt schools (Buffalo). They're by far the most travel friendly conference in FBS.

I still think the MAC of today will still pretty much be the same MAC in ten years. Their solidarity outweighs their problems.

If the MAC were to expand, they might bring aboard a couple of current midwestern or mideastern FCS schools that want to move up to FBS level. Check out this article:

10 FCS college football teams that could become FBS schools

Illinois State

"The Redbirds aren’t necessarily a powerhouse in the FCS, but have recently made a national title game in 2014. Illinois State would be part of the MAC conference and would join Northern Illinois as another team from the state of Illinois. In my opinion, they would be able to compete in the MAC, as they did beat Northwestern a couple years back."




North Dakota State:

The Bison are the top candidate to move up to the FBS ranks and the MAC would likely be the landing spot. NDSU has dominated the FCS playoffs for the last 10 years. The Bison have won 7/8 FCS national titles and would immediately be a contender in the MAC. If NDSU competed right away in the MAC, perhaps they could even make the jump to the Big Ten. They have beaten a couple of FBS schools including Iowa, Kansas St and Iowa St. The Bison are easily the best candidate to move up."

Youngstown State

"The Penguins made an FCS national title appearance in 2016, but that is their only playoff appearance this decade. YSU would fit into the MAC with all of the other Ohio teams in the conference and could resurrect their rivalry series with Akron. The Penguins have a former P5 coach in Bo Pelini who would recruit well with a little extra help in the FBS ranks."

https://pypeline.co/10-fcs-college-footb...s-schools/

That bolded sentence clearly shows this guy has no idea what he's talking about. Any hack can put out a blog and somebody will quote it.

(05-26-2020 01:01 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  

(05-26-2020 12:33 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  The MAC isn't going to lose any schools to P5 or other G5 leagues. If they do lose anybody, it'll be to schools losing FBS or D1 status because of financial shortfalls.

The MAC is very interesting to me. They're arguably the most stable G5 league. Despit the rotation in and out of football only members the past 20 years, their roster is the same as it was in 1999, minus Marshall. They schools have a common identity, while ther G5 leagues can't necessarily say the same. They are solid undertraduate (and many boast strong graduate programs) Midwestern schools, or at least Rust Belt schools (Buffalo). They're by far the most travel friendly conference in FBS.

I still think the MAC of today will still pretty much be the same MAC in ten years. Their solidarity outweighs their problems.

If the MAC were to expand, they might bring aboard a couple of current midwestern or mideastern FCS schools that want to move up to FBS level. Check out this article:

10 FCS college football teams that could become FBS schools

Illinois State

"The Redbirds aren’t necessarily a powerhouse in the FCS, but have recently made a national title game in 2014. Illinois State would be part of the MAC conference and would join Northern Illinois as another team from the state of Illinois. In my opinion, they would be able to compete in the MAC, as they did beat Northwestern a couple years back."




North Dakota State:

The Bison are the top candidate to move up to the FBS ranks and the MAC would likely be the landing spot. NDSU has dominated the FCS playoffs for the last 10 years. The Bison have won 7/8 FCS national titles and would immediately be a contender in the MAC. If NDSU competed right away in the MAC, perhaps they could even make the jump to the Big Ten. They have beaten a couple of FBS schools including Iowa, Kansas St and Iowa St. The Bison are easily the best candidate to move up."

Youngstown State

"The Penguins made an FCS national title appearance in 2016, but that is their only playoff appearance this decade. YSU would fit into the MAC with all of the other Ohio teams in the conference and could resurrect their rivalry series with Akron. The Penguins have a former P5 coach in Bo Pelini who would recruit well with a little extra help in the FBS ranks."

https://pypeline.co/10-fcs-college-footb...s-schools/

That article is useless. It just lists things like playoffs achievements, while not even mentioning the metrics that actually matter in moving up.

(05-26-2020 07:09 AM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  BIG12 > AAC > CUSA > Sun Belt

That's gonna be the chain reaction

I am not sure the Belt will be taken. My biggest reason is that I do not think that enough schools would be taken from CUSA to force them to want to raid the Belt. CUSA is currently overloaded so depending on how many and which schools are taken CUSA may feel better just standing pat with whatever they have left.

(05-26-2020 12:33 AM)Michael in Raleigh Wrote:  But how much does it hurt season and individual game ticket sales when it's darn near impossible for some Cleveland resident who is a Miami (OH) grad to make it to Oxford two Tuesdays in November?

I'm thinking that one in particular for my alma mater would be in the near neighborhood of didley and squat. If he or she exists, said Miami alum living in Cleveland who is going to be traveling to Oxford every Saturday home game can take the same private jet to the same private airfield for a weeknight game.

Columbus, Cincinnati and especially Dayton are more plausible, but even so, it's a long, long time since the old Cradle of Coaches has had a notably successful fresh faced young coach to attract a lot of Miami's fair-weather fans to roll out on a November afternoon.

The University of Akron's problems are not weeknight football in November, when very few more would be out under dark grey flannel skies to watch them on a Saturday, it's the City of Akron.

And of course, the MAC Presidents have been working through this for a while, as evidenced by their letter to the NCAA ... it may be that they're just ahead of the game working out the coming impacts and taking action, where some schools in some other Go5 conferences are presently engaged in a game of "let's pretend". If that's the case, then we'll see news start to roll out over the summer.