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Poll: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
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POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
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jedclampett Offline
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POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
05-23-2020 01:05 AM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
Better question, which one loses the most.

The SEC and B1G are so far ahead in value of everyone else that they can only take the best from the others. And at this point, they would only improve a proportionately small amount. Adding Oklahoma to the B1G wont displace the Ohio State-Michigan game (Oklahoma-Nebraska rival game returning however will be a help) , and adding Oklahoma to the SEC wont displace the Alabama-Auburn game as king either. Texas A&M and Nebraska were nice value adds that helped with TV contracts, but they had relatively little impact on the conference level. Those two joining those conferences however greatly diminished the Big XII.

Whomever they (SEC or B1G) take will force that conference to take a lesser value school dropping it's rating. Rinse and repeat until you get down to the SBC or MAC looking at maybe an FCS move ups as replacement.

The Big XII and the American Athletic probably have the most risk for declining in stature. Losing Texas and Oklahoma would be catastrophic; replacing them with say UCF and Houston, or going for numbers throw in BYU football and Cincinnati, would only solidify the drop to AAC+ status. The American could lose two or three schools, it's best value schools, and will looking for anyone to try and hold up the value, but likely will have to settle for a school or two who have values more like Tulsa on a bad hair day than anyone uplifting. Southern Miss or ODU hardly match Houston or UCF for value.

Bottom line the SEC of B1G could improve themselves from a power ranking of say 400 today to 430 with the right school. The Big XII by contrast could see it's power diminish from say 275 to 175 with the "right departures" (value is a multiple of the sum of parts, a figure that goes down without the flagship school). The American might diminish from 150 to 100 on the same scale. The proportionate drops are much greater for the conferences losing a school or two than those gaining.
05-23-2020 02:59 AM
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Florida tribe fan Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
(05-23-2020 02:59 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Better question, which one loses the most.

The SEC and B1G are so far ahead in value of everyone else that they can only take the best from the others. And at this point, they would only improve a proportionately small amount. Adding Oklahoma to the B1G wont displace the Ohio State-Michigan game (Oklahoma-Nebraska rival game returning however will be a help) , and adding Oklahoma to the SEC wont displace the Alabama-Auburn game as king either. Texas A&M and Nebraska were nice value adds that helped with TV contracts, but they had relatively little impact on the conference level. Those two joining those conferences however greatly diminished the Big XII.

Whomever they (SEC or B1G) take will force that conference to take a lesser value school dropping it's rating. Rinse and repeat until you get down to the SBC or MAC looking at maybe an FCS move ups as replacement.

The Big XII and the American Athletic probably have the most risk for declining in stature. Losing Texas and Oklahoma would be catastrophic; replacing them with say UCF and Houston, or going for numbers throw in BYU football and Cincinnati, would only solidify the drop to AAC+ status. The American could lose two or three schools, it's best value schools, and will looking for anyone to try and hold up the value, but likely will have to settle for a school or two who have values more like Tulsa on a bad hair day than anyone uplifting. Southern Miss or ODU hardly match Houston or UCF for value.

Bottom line the SEC of B1G could improve themselves from a power ranking of say 400 today to 430 with the right school. The Big XII by contrast could see it's power diminish from say 275 to 175 with the "right departures" (value is a multiple of the sum of parts, a figure that goes down without the flagship school). The American might diminish from 150 to 100 on the same scale. The proportionate drops are much greater for the conferences losing a school or two than those gaining.

Which conferences’ and colleges’ revenues don’t recover post-pandemic and they find they can’t afford themselves?
05-23-2020 06:12 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
I voted for the AAC. They are in the best position to take on any XII or ACC schools that are left behind from other realignment movements which will only help them. I think the Sun Belt is getting stronger and so they could be a good place for a school to move like higher profile CUSA schools.
05-23-2020 10:12 AM
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Aztec Since 88 Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
It will be the AAC and The MW... The BIG and SEC are fine. It just depends on what happens with the ACC, PAC 12 and Big 12. Depending on who gets poached from those three to consolidate to four 16 team power conferences. IMO once Texas and OU decide what they want, the dominoes will start to fall. I could even some teams getting the boot in favor of others, when they consolidate. It will probably even force ND to join a conference for football to stay relevant.

The only thing that may save crazy conference realignment is expanding the playoff format to 8, and giving all current P5 leagues an autobid.
(This post was last modified: 05-23-2020 11:13 AM by Aztec Since 88.)
05-23-2020 11:10 AM
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michael.stevens.3110 Offline
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POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
The most vulnerable team in Major College Athletics is the PAC ....The insane politics ofCalifornia , Oregon and Washington State are causing the rapid decline of this once Major League ...THE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT OPTIONS.


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05-23-2020 12:10 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
(05-23-2020 12:10 PM)michael.stevens.3110 Wrote:  The most vulnerable team in Major College Athletics is the PAC ....The insane politics ofCalifornia , Oregon and Washington State are causing the rapid decline of this once Major League ...THE MEMBERS ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT OPTIONS.


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Ehh. The Pac12 is so geographically isolated---they may actually be the most secure. Maybe someone might pick off the Arizona schools or Colorado---but for the most part---their primary west coast "Pac-8" core should be pretty safe.
(This post was last modified: 05-23-2020 12:26 PM by Attackcoog.)
05-23-2020 12:26 PM
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michael.stevens.3110 Offline
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POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
That will be what survives when the dust clears ....When Iowa State makes TEN MILLION DOLLARS More than USC ..something’s gonna give


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05-23-2020 12:43 PM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
Definitely not the AAC as they'll be the source of raids.

My vote is CUSA because they have a set of schools committed to FBS football and they might have a few interested in joining them should there be losses in the CUSA/MAC/SBC tier.

Addition by subtraction could be a possibility too. The AAC decides to take ODU and it reduces the overall conference footprint, moves UAB to the east where it belongs. That would reduce the split argument greatly if everyone was happy with their division.
05-23-2020 12:47 PM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
XII is safe as its by NCAA statute an autonomy conference.

There are enough good AAC/MWC teams to rebuild it to 10.
05-23-2020 12:49 PM
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Bobcat2013 Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
Where is the option for Great Northern Conference?
05-23-2020 01:16 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
(05-23-2020 12:43 PM)michael.stevens.3110 Wrote:  That will be what survives when the dust clears ....When Iowa State makes TEN MILLION DOLLARS More than USC ..something’s gonna give


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Iowa St’s STH base triples USC’s. If USC isn’t happy about Iowa St making more $, then USC fans should raise their level of support to match Iowa St’s.
05-23-2020 01:27 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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Poll: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward
(05-23-2020 01:27 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(05-23-2020 12:43 PM)michael.stevens.3110 Wrote:  That will be what survives when the dust clears ....When Iowa State makes TEN MILLION DOLLARS More than USC ..something’s gonna give


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Iowa St’s STH base triples USC’s. If USC isn’t happy about Iowa St making more $, then USC fans should raise their level of support to match Iowa St’s.

USC just completed an eight year athletic fundraising drive that raised $748 million for athletics:
https://usctrojans.com/news/2019/3/5/usc...ating.aspx

That would be an average of a little over $93 million per year. The Iowa State athletic budget was $79 million in 2018-2019. USC's money problem is that they want more and should be making more. Some of that is on USC and some of that is on the Pac-12 leadership. USC has a storied football program that has lost some steam the past decade. They had 44 players drafted into the NFL the past decade, down from 64 players in the previous decade.

But USC does not need to join another conference, especially one with Iowa State. USC and Iowa State have nothing in common. Iowa State has had six players drafted in the NFL in the past decade and none of them are from Iowa. USC has more talent in their backyard. They gain nothing from playing schools like Iowa State in football.
05-23-2020 03:25 PM
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SoCalBobcat78 Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward
(05-23-2020 10:12 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I voted for the AAC. They are in the best position to take on any XII or ACC schools that are left behind from other realignment movements which will only help them. I think the Sun Belt is getting stronger and so they could be a good place for a school to move like higher profile CUSA schools.

I think the obvious answer is the AAC because they have an opening and can take their time filling it with a quality addition. With their tight relationship with ESPN, they could add 1-3 schools if ESPN was willing to give them an overall increase per school, say to $10 million per school.

The Sun Belt needs the underperforming schools like Texas State to get their act together. Texas State and Georgia State should both be better in football, given the football talent they have in their respective states. The Sun Belt could eventually expand to 12 football schools if they can find appealing additions.
05-23-2020 03:37 PM
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Minutemen429 Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
(05-23-2020 10:12 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I voted for the AAC. They are in the best position to take on any XII or ACC schools that are left behind from other realignment movements which will only help them. I think the Sun Belt is getting stronger and so they could be a good place for a school to move like higher profile CUSA schools.

I think at that point the left behind teams would add teams from the AAC, a repeat of the Big East football collapse.
05-23-2020 04:05 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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RE: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
(05-23-2020 03:25 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  
(05-23-2020 01:27 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(05-23-2020 12:43 PM)michael.stevens.3110 Wrote:  That will be what survives when the dust clears ....When Iowa State makes TEN MILLION DOLLARS More than USC ..something’s gonna give


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Iowa St’s STH base triples USC’s. If USC isn’t happy about Iowa St making more $, then USC fans should raise their level of support to match Iowa St’s.

USC just completed an eight year athletic fundraising drive that raised $748 million for athletics:
https://usctrojans.com/news/2019/3/5/usc...ating.aspx

That would be an average of a little over $93 million per year. The Iowa State athletic budget was $79 million in 2018-2019. USC's money problem is that they want more and should be making more. Some of that is on USC and some of that is on the Pac-12 leadership. USC has a storied football program that has lost some steam the past decade. They had 44 players drafted into the NFL the past decade, down from 64 players in the previous decade.

USC came off a PAC 12-championship 11-win season in 2017.
USC’s season ticket holders the following season? 15,000.
https://www.latimes.com/sports/usc/la-sp...story.html
Quote:Starting Friday, USC will move beyond its 6,000 or so Trojan Athletic Fund members and begin a five-months-long outreach process to contact general season-ticket holders — those 9,000 or so fans who have previously not paid the minimum $200 annual fee required to join the fund.

Iowa St came off an 8-5 season in 2018.
Iowa St’s season ticket holders the following season? 45,000
https://cyclones.com/news/2019/8/16/foot...-sold.aspx
Quote:Director of Athletics Jamie Pollard challenged the fans to reach 45,000 sales.

And, they answered.

One-third the STH’ers of Iowa State after winning a PAC-12 championship.

USC fans shouldn’t blame Larry Scott — they should blame themselves. USC football succeeds in spite of - not because of - its fan base.
05-23-2020 04:19 PM
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pvk75 Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
I lived/worked in the LA-Orange counties area for five years, in the back yards of USC and UCLA. Due to work, knew some fairly big $ donors to both. I can honestly say IWokeUpLikeThis is close to correct in the assessment of USC.

As for Iowa State, similar to Nebraska, except they also have Iowa and to a lesser extent, Northern Iowa. What else is there? Wherever they end up when the dust settles, they have a solid fan base, a solid donor base, big bucks ... everything an AD could want.
(This post was last modified: 05-23-2020 04:46 PM by pvk75.)
05-23-2020 04:43 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
(05-23-2020 12:47 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Definitely not the AAC as they'll be the source of raids.

My vote is CUSA because they have a set of schools committed to FBS football and they might have a few interested in joining them should there be losses in the CUSA/MAC/SBC tier.

Addition by subtraction could be a possibility too. The AAC decides to take ODU and it reduces the overall conference footprint, moves UAB to the east where it belongs. That would reduce the split argument greatly if everyone was happy with their division.

C-USA has some programs willing to just tread water and settle for just remaining in the FBS. The faction that wants to split into smaller regional leagues are looking to save money, not "leap forward".

But, there are a few programs in C-USA that are investing and growing their athletics. I think those programs will leap forward regardless of what happens with realignment, and should even advance their positions as we overcome the current pandemic.
05-23-2020 05:51 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
In all honesty, realignment is a food chain. The only conferences that are going to be getting better are the ones at the top: the SEC and Big Ten. Everyone is is going to be trying to replace schools they lost with ones from lower status conferences.
05-23-2020 06:08 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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RE: POLL: Which conference will make the greatest leap forward via future realignment?
(05-23-2020 06:08 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  In all honesty, realignment is a food chain. The only conferences that are going to be getting better are the ones at the top: the SEC and Big Ten. Everyone is is going to be trying to replace schools they lost with ones from lower status conferences.

Agreed. I think the better question is which programs are going to rise in the aftermath of the pandemic or realignment that may come from it?
05-23-2020 06:14 PM
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