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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #81
RE: My dream Big Ten
Oklahoma will definitely be sitting at a historic cross road in 2024 as they mull their conference affiliation future.

The Big Ten offers a very winnable division and academics but they are going to have to rely on their brand name rather than away games to recruit nationally, particularly in Texas (the Big 10’s best seem to have no problem doing this). Schedule wise, they’ll have either Nebraska or one of the East’s top 4 to draw interest plus other divisional opponents Iowa and Wisconsin, who are generally pretty good. In a Future where CFB is the P4 (with the SEC and Big 10 being stronger than the other 2) this wouldn’t be a bad option.

The SEC path offers more attractive division opponents but the Sooners would have a stiffer path to the CCG. Texas recruiting maintains the status quo. If the future is a near single entity structure, where the SEC adds the best of the Big 12 and ACC (and then leverages the Big 10) I’d want to be in the SEC conglomerate.

I think 16 is truly the max for a conference in the traditional sense. Beyond that, you’re a conglomeration of divisions and/or scheduling pods United by a tv contract and CCG. I think the big question here is do we stop at the line or cross over?
02-17-2021 04:57 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #82
RE: My dream Big Ten
(02-17-2021 04:57 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Oklahoma will definitely be sitting at a historic cross road in 2024 as they mull their conference affiliation future.

The Big Ten offers a very winnable division and academics but they are going to have to rely on their brand name rather than away games to recruit nationally, particularly in Texas (the Big 10’s best seem to have no problem doing this). Schedule wise, they’ll have either Nebraska or one of the East’s top 4 to draw interest plus other divisional opponents Iowa and Wisconsin, who are generally pretty good. In a Future where CFB is the P4 (with the SEC and Big 10 being stronger than the other 2) this wouldn’t be a bad option.

The SEC path offers more attractive division opponents but the Sooners would have a stiffer path to the CCG. Texas recruiting maintains the status quo. If the future is a near single entity structure, where the SEC adds the best of the Big 12 and ACC (and then leverages the Big 10) I’d want to be in the SEC conglomerate.

I think 16 is truly the max for a conference in the traditional sense. Beyond that, you’re a conglomeration of divisions and/or scheduling pods United by a tv contract and CCG. I think the big question here is do we stop at the line or cross over?

I think we wind up with a 18- 20 member Big 10, a 18-20 member SEC and a best of the rest conference in an upper tier of ~60 schools. If this happens it will be predicated by a merger of the Big 12 and PAC and the subdivision of the ACC and likely only takes place if ESPN winds up with majority Big 10 rights.

If the SEC or Big 10 successfully raid the Big 12 we wind up with 2 well paid conferences in the SEC and Big 10 and two less well paid conferences in the ACC and what ever emerges from the PAC and Big 12 remnants.

An equitable division might be Oklahoma and Notre Dame to the Big 10 and Texas and Florida State to the SEC. At 18 the Big 10 adds Virginia and N.C. State and the SEC picks up North Carolina and Duke. UNC will insist upon their partners in crime and that's not Virginia. N.C. State is land grant and next 5 in for AAU.

Everybody else goes into a new conference in the East along with the some of the Big 12.

So both conferences expand with a couple of national brands and prestigious markets with academics.
02-17-2021 06:53 PM
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GE and MTS Offline
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Post: #83
RE: My dream Big Ten
(02-17-2021 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-17-2021 04:57 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Oklahoma will definitely be sitting at a historic cross road in 2024 as they mull their conference affiliation future.

The Big Ten offers a very winnable division and academics but they are going to have to rely on their brand name rather than away games to recruit nationally, particularly in Texas (the Big 10’s best seem to have no problem doing this). Schedule wise, they’ll have either Nebraska or one of the East’s top 4 to draw interest plus other divisional opponents Iowa and Wisconsin, who are generally pretty good. In a Future where CFB is the P4 (with the SEC and Big 10 being stronger than the other 2) this wouldn’t be a bad option.

The SEC path offers more attractive division opponents but the Sooners would have a stiffer path to the CCG. Texas recruiting maintains the status quo. If the future is a near single entity structure, where the SEC adds the best of the Big 12 and ACC (and then leverages the Big 10) I’d want to be in the SEC conglomerate.

I think 16 is truly the max for a conference in the traditional sense. Beyond that, you’re a conglomeration of divisions and/or scheduling pods United by a tv contract and CCG. I think the big question here is do we stop at the line or cross over?

I think we wind up with a 18- 20 member Big 10, a 18-20 member SEC and a best of the rest conference in an upper tier of ~60 schools. If this happens it will be predicated by a merger of the Big 12 and PAC and the subdivision of the ACC and likely only takes place if ESPN winds up with majority Big 10 rights.

If the SEC or Big 10 successfully raid the Big 12 we wind up with 2 well paid conferences in the SEC and Big 10 and two less well paid conferences in the ACC and what ever emerges from the PAC and Big 12 remnants.

An equitable division might be Oklahoma and Notre Dame to the Big 10 and Texas and Florida State to the SEC. At 18 the Big 10 adds Virginia and N.C. State and the SEC picks up North Carolina and Duke. UNC will insist upon their partners in crime and that's not Virginia. N.C. State is land grant and next 5 in for AAU.

Everybody else goes into a new conference in the East along with the some of the Big 12.

So both conferences expand with a couple of national brands and prestigious markets with academics.

I'd be good if things shook out this way. I'd prefer Virginia Tech to UVA is this scenario but that's not a criticism.

Divisions would be interesting. Three of six or two of nine? Two divisions is easier with Indiana switching to the west and going with Oklahoma. Otherwise, something like this perhaps:

Oklahoma
Nebraska
Iowa
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern

Illinois
Purdue
Indiana
Michigan State
Michigan
Ohio State

Penn State
Notre Dame
Rutgers
Maryland
NC State
Virginia
02-17-2021 11:29 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #84
RE: My dream Big Ten
(02-17-2021 11:29 PM)GE and MTS Wrote:  
(02-17-2021 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-17-2021 04:57 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Oklahoma will definitely be sitting at a historic cross road in 2024 as they mull their conference affiliation future.

The Big Ten offers a very winnable division and academics but they are going to have to rely on their brand name rather than away games to recruit nationally, particularly in Texas (the Big 10’s best seem to have no problem doing this). Schedule wise, they’ll have either Nebraska or one of the East’s top 4 to draw interest plus other divisional opponents Iowa and Wisconsin, who are generally pretty good. In a Future where CFB is the P4 (with the SEC and Big 10 being stronger than the other 2) this wouldn’t be a bad option.

The SEC path offers more attractive division opponents but the Sooners would have a stiffer path to the CCG. Texas recruiting maintains the status quo. If the future is a near single entity structure, where the SEC adds the best of the Big 12 and ACC (and then leverages the Big 10) I’d want to be in the SEC conglomerate.

I think 16 is truly the max for a conference in the traditional sense. Beyond that, you’re a conglomeration of divisions and/or scheduling pods United by a tv contract and CCG. I think the big question here is do we stop at the line or cross over?

I think we wind up with a 18- 20 member Big 10, a 18-20 member SEC and a best of the rest conference in an upper tier of ~60 schools. If this happens it will be predicated by a merger of the Big 12 and PAC and the subdivision of the ACC and likely only takes place if ESPN winds up with majority Big 10 rights.

If the SEC or Big 10 successfully raid the Big 12 we wind up with 2 well paid conferences in the SEC and Big 10 and two less well paid conferences in the ACC and what ever emerges from the PAC and Big 12 remnants.

An equitable division might be Oklahoma and Notre Dame to the Big 10 and Texas and Florida State to the SEC. At 18 the Big 10 adds Virginia and N.C. State and the SEC picks up North Carolina and Duke. UNC will insist upon their partners in crime and that's not Virginia. N.C. State is land grant and next 5 in for AAU.

Everybody else goes into a new conference in the East along with the some of the Big 12.

So both conferences expand with a couple of national brands and prestigious markets with academics.

I'd be good if things shook out this way. I'd prefer Virginia Tech to UVA is this scenario but that's not a criticism.

Divisions would be interesting. Three of six or two of nine? Two divisions is easier with Indiana switching to the west and going with Oklahoma. Otherwise, something like this perhaps:

Oklahoma
Nebraska
Iowa
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Northwestern

Illinois
Purdue
Indiana
Michigan State
Michigan
Ohio State

Penn State
Notre Dame
Rutgers
Maryland
NC State
Virginia

The SEC works out pretty well too:
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Duke, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina

And the new conference isn't too bad either:
Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, T.C.U., Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Iowa State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

While the cream of the brands of the ACC get much needed, though not always deserved, boosts in pay, ESPN gets really enhanced value out of those brands by their placement in the SEC and Big 10. ESPN gets to keep the cheaper conference but with more football competitiveness with the emerging conference.

The PAC which is stunted by geography remains the same.
02-18-2021 12:02 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #85
RE: My dream Big Ten
Unless someone wants to test the ACC GOR, I think we see the next moves play out in two steps:

2024: 4 Big 12 schools move to the SEC and Big 10

2037: 4-8 ACC schools move to the SEC and Big 10

Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Texas Tech move in 2024

In 2037 we see ND, Florida St, Clemson, and 1-5 more align into one of the 2 Power Conferences.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2021 03:06 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
02-18-2021 03:03 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #86
RE: My dream Big Ten
(02-18-2021 03:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Unless someone wants to test the ACC GOR, I think we see the next moves play out in two steps:

2024: 4 Big 12 schools move to the SEC and Big 10

2037: 4-8 ACC schools move to the SEC and Big 10

Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Texas Tech move in 2024

In 2037 we see ND, Florida St, Clemson, and 1-5 more align into one of the 2 Power Conferences.

You better believe that as self centered as Carolina and Duke are they'll be looking to punch their tickets for double the money before the rest even know what's happening. Notre Dame and Florida State won't be affected. Virginia will likely e safe as well. But beyond that it's a crap shoot!
02-18-2021 03:27 PM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #87
RE: My dream Big Ten
(02-18-2021 03:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-18-2021 03:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Unless someone wants to test the ACC GOR, I think we see the next moves play out in two steps:

2024: 4 Big 12 schools move to the SEC and Big 10

2037: 4-8 ACC schools move to the SEC and Big 10

Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and Texas Tech move in 2024

In 2037 we see ND, Florida St, Clemson, and 1-5 more align into one of the 2 Power Conferences.

You better believe that as self centered as Carolina and Duke are they'll be looking to punch their tickets for double the money before the rest even know what's happening. Notre Dame and Florida State won't be affected. Virginia will likely e safe as well. But beyond that it's a crap shoot!

You're assuming

1) Either the Big Ten and/or SEC wants Carolina/Duke before then. You yourself have said they don't bring enough to warrant expansion. Just because Carolina/Duke want to join the Big Ten or SEC doesn't mean the Big Ten or SEC wants them.

2) Enough schools will agree to break the GOR. Otherwise, Carolina, Duke, Florida State, Clemson, etc. won't be going anywhere even if the Big Ten and/or SEC want them. Would the SEC take Clemson knowing their portion of their media rights goes back to the ACC until 2037? Even if the SEC and Big Ten agree to invite four teams each, what happens to the other seven schools? If they're not happy, they'll stop everything. As long as there's an ACC, they own Carolina, Duke, Florida State, etc. for the length of the GOR. They would have to break up or dissolve the ACC to rip it up.
02-18-2021 05:39 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #88
RE: My dream Big Ten
UNC, Duke, and UVA are in a weird position, unlike any other major conference, as they call the shots despite not being the most valuable schools.

Every member of that conference (well ND would take some nudging) would rather be in the Big Ten or SEC than their own conference. VT and NC ST are virtually held as prisoners by their instate rivals.

Schools like Florida St, Clemson, GT, Miami, and Louisville could all slip away if an invite came their way when the GOR is up.

Pitt, Syracuse, and BC have freedom of movement but are 100% reliant on riding ND’s coat tails.

Presuming the moves I described happen in 2024, if the SEC and Big 10 are inclined to grow more in 2037 they need to chip away at the periphery programs first if they want at the the VA/NC core.

Clemson and FSU are free for the SEC’s taking. The Big 10 could take Miami and GT unopposed.

At that point, ND and Tobacco Road have a come to Jesus moment where they realize if they want to stay relevant they need to pick a side and that side is not going down with the ACC ship.
02-18-2021 05:50 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #89
RE: My dream Big Ten
(02-17-2021 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I think we wind up with a 18- 20 member Big 10, a 18-20 member SEC and a best of the rest conference in an upper tier of ~60 schools. If this happens it will be predicated by a merger of the Big 12 and PAC and the subdivision of the ACC and likely only takes place if ESPN winds up with majority Big 10 rights.

If the SEC or Big 10 successfully raid the Big 12 we wind up with 2 well paid conferences in the SEC and Big 10 and two less well paid conferences in the ACC and what ever emerges from the PAC and Big 12 remnants.

An equitable division might be Oklahoma and Notre Dame to the Big 10 and Texas and Florida State to the SEC. At 18 the Big 10 adds Virginia and N.C. State and the SEC picks up North Carolina and Duke. UNC will insist upon their partners in crime and that's not Virginia. N.C. State is land grant and next 5 in for AAU.

Everybody else goes into a new conference in the East along with the some of the Big 12.

So both conferences expand with a couple of national brands and prestigious markets with academics.

UNC would make sense if one of the goals of the SEC is to beef up their basketball cred. In that case, Kansas would make sense as well. And Kansas would be available before UNC. So it would make some sense to beef up with UNC, Duke and Kansas. By 2037, they may be touted as home run adds.

I'm curious about N.C. State. They may be better off escaping from UNC's shadow. It's just that not only are they tied together under the same system but, from reading NC State folks, it appears they're much more loyal to the ACC than Texas A&M ever were to the Big 12. Of course, any port in a storm. The university is in an area of good growth and shares research with UNC and Duke. Plus they're on the borderline in research quality according to ARWU.
02-19-2021 11:16 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #90
RE: My dream Big Ten
(02-19-2021 11:16 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(02-17-2021 06:53 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I think we wind up with a 18- 20 member Big 10, a 18-20 member SEC and a best of the rest conference in an upper tier of ~60 schools. If this happens it will be predicated by a merger of the Big 12 and PAC and the subdivision of the ACC and likely only takes place if ESPN winds up with majority Big 10 rights.

If the SEC or Big 10 successfully raid the Big 12 we wind up with 2 well paid conferences in the SEC and Big 10 and two less well paid conferences in the ACC and what ever emerges from the PAC and Big 12 remnants.

An equitable division might be Oklahoma and Notre Dame to the Big 10 and Texas and Florida State to the SEC. At 18 the Big 10 adds Virginia and N.C. State and the SEC picks up North Carolina and Duke. UNC will insist upon their partners in crime and that's not Virginia. N.C. State is land grant and next 5 in for AAU.

Everybody else goes into a new conference in the East along with the some of the Big 12.

So both conferences expand with a couple of national brands and prestigious markets with academics.

UNC would make sense if one of the goals of the SEC is to beef up their basketball cred. In that case, Kansas would make sense as well. And Kansas would be available before UNC. So it would make some sense to beef up with UNC, Duke and Kansas. By 2037, they may be touted as home run adds.

I'm curious about N.C. State. They may be better off escaping from UNC's shadow. It's just that not only are they tied together under the same system but, from reading NC State folks, it appears they're much more loyal to the ACC than Texas A&M ever were to the Big 12. Of course, any port in a storm. The university is in an area of good growth and shares research with UNC and Duke. Plus they're on the borderline in research quality according to ARWU.

What N.C. State is that Duke and UNC are not is a land grant. And their people will speak favorably of the ACC in public but are wholly discontented by UNC's power over them and by collusion with UNC Duke's power over them. There is impetus for a move if there was a pathway to it.

I agree about Kansas, but I'm not sure that works with Texas. And yes Duke and UNC would be to get a competitive middler in football in UNC and a patsy in Duke while bolstering football and improving the academics. The lure for UNC besides the money would be associations with Vanderbilt, Texas, A&M, Florida and to a lesser extent Missouri while entering another conference where they could challenge for a hoops title annually. The Big 10 is long on hoops and deep in them as well.
02-19-2021 12:14 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #91
RE: My dream Big Ten
I think a mix of JRsec's and Fighting Muskie's speculations is the more likely scenario (although I still think it's not all that likely considering the complexities of assembling such a collection of programs in two cycles). Texas protecting Texas Tech and UNC protecting Duke are good guesses because with further consolidation there's no chance that either Duke or Texas Tech can be attractive enough as standalones. Kansas would also face the same dilemma but there's a chance that they may end up getting a golden ticket if ND turns the Big Ten down one last time. Miami is a bit iffy but they're in a recruit-rich region with lots of northern transplants. An on-campus stadium would be ideal but unlikely. The current stadium is miles ahead of the old Orange Bowl but it's further away from the city. It's a small, private university located actually in Coral Gables. However, another private, Northwestern, has managed to make it work for the conference. If football is still a priority in the second cycle then the Canes might end up being an attractive program for the Big Ten.
02-20-2021 02:54 AM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #92
RE: My dream Big Ten
NC St will not be permitted to leave unless UNC gets to go somewhere too. They are part of the same system and while NC St is the land grant, Chapel Hill is the flagship.

Unlike other states, where the flagship is obligated to look after the other state schools with big time athletics, UNC seems more concerned about caring for the rival, private school Duke.
02-21-2021 09:01 AM
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GE and MTS Offline
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RE: My dream Big Ten
(02-21-2021 09:01 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NC St will not be permitted to leave unless UNC gets to go somewhere too. They are part of the same system and while NC St is the land grant, Chapel Hill is the flagship.

Unlike other states, where the flagship is obligated to look after the other state schools with big time athletics, UNC seems more concerned about caring for the rival, private school Duke.

UNC and Duke end up in the SEC while NC State ends up in Bug Ten in JRsec's proposal so they are taken care of.

I've said before that I think NC State could thrive if out from under the ACC core's shadow. They have a lot of positives going for themselves but whether self inflicted or not, they haven't capitalized on their potential.
02-21-2021 11:19 AM
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schmolik Offline
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Post: #94
RE: My dream Big Ten
(02-21-2021 11:19 AM)GE and MTS Wrote:  
(02-21-2021 09:01 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NC St will not be permitted to leave unless UNC gets to go somewhere too. They are part of the same system and while NC St is the land grant, Chapel Hill is the flagship.

Unlike other states, where the flagship is obligated to look after the other state schools with big time athletics, UNC seems more concerned about caring for the rival, private school Duke.

UNC and Duke end up in the SEC while NC State ends up in Bug Ten in JRsec's proposal so they are taken care of.

I've said before that I think NC State could thrive if out from under the ACC core's shadow. They have a lot of positives going for themselves but whether self inflicted or not, they haven't capitalized on their potential.

UNC and Duke seem more like Big Ten schools while NC State seems like more of an SEC school. There were rumors that the Big Ten was courting UNC before the GOR was signed. The only way Carolina goes to the SEC over the cash is if they get way more cash. If it weren't for the fact that Jim Delany (UNC alum) isn't the commissioner, it would easily be a slam dunk. North Carolina and Duke (and Virginia) won't want to associate with the Mississippi schools unless someone gives them millions of dollars to do so. Now NC State is a different story. This would be the way for NC State to escape the Carolina/Duke shadow and the three North Carolina schools to associate with the schools that fit their academic profiles.
02-21-2021 11:33 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #95
RE: My dream Big Ten
(02-21-2021 11:33 AM)schmolik Wrote:  
(02-21-2021 11:19 AM)GE and MTS Wrote:  
(02-21-2021 09:01 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  NC St will not be permitted to leave unless UNC gets to go somewhere too. They are part of the same system and while NC St is the land grant, Chapel Hill is the flagship.

Unlike other states, where the flagship is obligated to look after the other state schools with big time athletics, UNC seems more concerned about caring for the rival, private school Duke.

UNC and Duke end up in the SEC while NC State ends up in Bug Ten in JRsec's proposal so they are taken care of.

I've said before that I think NC State could thrive if out from under the ACC core's shadow. They have a lot of positives going for themselves but whether self inflicted or not, they haven't capitalized on their potential.

UNC and Duke seem more like Big Ten schools while NC State seems like more of an SEC school. There were rumors that the Big Ten was courting UNC before the GOR was signed. The only way Carolina goes to the SEC over the cash is if they get way more cash. If it weren't for the fact that Jim Delany (UNC alum) isn't the commissioner, it would easily be a slam dunk. North Carolina and Duke (and Virginia) won't want to associate with the Mississippi schools unless someone gives them millions of dollars to do so. Now NC State is a different story. This would be the way for NC State to escape the Carolina/Duke shadow and the three North Carolina schools to associate with the schools that fit their academic profiles.

Yeah sure, UNC's Cunningham had discussions with Slive when Maryland departed. He wanted to know if the SEC had a place for UNC and Duke if the worst happened to the ACC. Note: He didn't mention a spot for NCSt. And he was fully aware of his alumni's desires after their donors had been polled and overwhelmingly preferred the SEC. But what ever slop allows you to still arrogantly put down the Mississippi schools. Sorry reality doesn't fit your narrative.
02-21-2021 11:39 AM
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